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Sentiments across the
CommonwealthLocal Economic Indicators
Dr. Alice Louise Kassens
John S. Shannon Professor of Economics
March 2014 Elderscholar Presentation
Economic Indicators
What are they?
Instruments used to “take the pulse” of the economy
Economic Indicators
What is their purpose?
• Status of the economy (local, national)
• Comparison across localities
• Effectiveness of policy
Economic Indicators
Examples: GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
Economic Indicators
Examples: Inflation
Economic Indicators
Examples: Unemployment
Economic Indicators
Examples: Consumer sentiment
Consumer sentiment
Consumer opinion of the health of the economy
Consumer Sentiment in
the Commonwealth
Institute for Policy and Opinion Research
Virginia Consumer Sentiment
IPOR
• Goal ~ 600 completed surveys
• Automatic dialer
• ~ 30% cell phone
• 15 stations with paid employees
• Up to three calling periods per day
• ~ 6 minutes per completed survey, calling completed in ~ 3 days
• Margin of error for full sample +/- 4%
Virginia Consumer Sentiment
ConsumerSentiment
Would you say that you and your family living there are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
CURRENT
Now looking ahead: do you think that a year from now you and your family living there will be better off financially, worse off, or just about the same as now?
FUTURE
Now, turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, would you say at the present time that business conditions are better off, worse off, or just about the same as they were a year ago?
CURRENT
Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that the country as a whole will have continuous good times during the next five years or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression or what?
FUTURE
About big things people buy for their homes - such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or a bad time for people to buy major household items?
CURRENT
Virginia Consumer Sentiment
Would you say that you and your family living there are
better off or worse off financially than you were a year
ago?
BETTER OFF WORSE OFF
29% 28%
FEB
2014
Virginia Consumer Sentiment
Now looking ahead: do you think that a year from now
you and your family living there will be better off
financially, worse off, or just about the same as now?
BETTER OFF WORSE OFF
37% 13%
FEB
2014
Virginia Consumer Sentiment
Now, turning to business conditions in the country as a
whole, would you say at the present time that business
conditions are better off, worse off, or just about the same
as they were a year ago?
BETTER OFF WORSE OFF
28% 37%
FEB
2014
Virginia Consumer Sentiment
Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that
the country as a whole will have continuous good times
during the next five years or that we will have periods of
widespread unemployment or depression or what?
BETTER OFF WORSE OFF
44% 27%
FEB
2014
Virginia Consumer Sentiment
About big things people buy for their homes - such as
furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like
that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or a
bad time for people to buy major household items?
BETTER OFF WORSE OFF
31% 36%
FEB
2014
Virginia Consumer Sentiment
Virginia Index of Current Conditions (VAICC)FEB
2014
84
UP 5 POINTS SINCE November 2013
Virginia Consumer Sentiment
Virginia Index of Current Conditions (VAICC)FEB
2014
84
UP 8 POINTS SINCE February 2013
Virginia Consumer Sentiment
Virginia Index of Consumer Expectations (VAICE)FEB
2014
82
UP 8 POINTS SINCE November 2013
Virginia Consumer Sentiment
Virginia Index of Consumer Expectations (VAICE)FEB
2014
82
UP 9 POINTS SINCE February 2013
Virginia Consumer Sentiment
Virginia Index of Consumer Sentiment (VAICS)FEB
2014
83
UP 7 POINTS SINCE November 2013
Virginia Consumer Sentiment
Virginia Index of Consumer Sentiment (VAICS)FEB
2014
83
UP 8 POINTS SINCE February 2013
Virginia Consumer Sentiment
Virginia compared to the United StatesFEB
2014
