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1 www.sebgroup.com Facts & Figures January – December 2008

SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

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Page 1: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

1

www.sebgroup.com

Facts & FiguresJanuary – December 2008

Page 2: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

2

PageSEB Group 3 – 30Asset quality 32 – 49Bond portfolios 50 – 59Divisional level 60 – 66Merchant Banking 67 – 76Retail Banking 77 – 102Wealth Management 103 – 114Life 115 – 130Macro update 131 – 140

Contents

Page 3: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

3

SEB has…an attractive platformhigh customer satisfactionresilient income generationseveral leading positions

...a strong customer base2,500 large companies and financial institutions customers 400,000 SME customers5 million private customers

3

SEB – the key to North-European markets

Page 4: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

4

Organisation President & CEO

Annika Falkengren

Group Credits & Group Risk Control

Johan Andersson

Internal Audit

Agneta Brevenhag*

Compliance

Gent Jansson

Wealth ManagementFredrik Boheman

Life

Anders Mossberg

CFO

Jan Erik Back

Group IT

Ulf Thorstensson

Group Operations

Pia Warnerman

Group Staff

Bo Magnusson

Merchant Banking

Magnus Carlsson

Retail Banking

Mats Torstendahl

Group Strategy & Business Planning

Hans Larsson

HR & Org. Dev.

Ingrid Engström

Business Support &

Group Staff

Bo Magnusson,Deputy CEO

* Reports directly to the Board

Page 5: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

5

65%

6%3%

4%3%

4%

9%

6%

Share of operating profitJan – Dec 2008

53%27%

7%13%

Retail Banking

Wealth Management

LifeMerchant BankingGermany

Sweden

LithuaniaLatvia

Estonia

Norway

FinlandDenmark

Geography – Adjusted for OtherDivisions – Adjusted for OtherSweden – adjusted for centralisation of CPM portfolio

Page 6: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

6

Ratings of Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken ABRating target set by SEB's board of directors at AA

Moody’s S&P Fitch DBRS

Bank Senior Rating

Short Term P-1 A-1 F-1 R-1 (middle)

Long Term A1 A A+ AA (low)

Outlook Negative Negative Stable Stable

Last Action Rating action Outlook change Outlook change Unaffected rating

Date April-09 Mar-09 Jul-08 Jul-08

Page 7: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

7

Key figuresSEB Group

ChangeQ4 Jan-Dec Q3 Q4 Jan-Dec

SEK m 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007

Operating income 12,714 41,140 38% 27% 2%Operating expenses -6,965 -25,407 17% 17% 10%Operating profit 4,028 12,471 59% -12% -27%Net profit 3,507 10,050 86% -7% -26%

Return on Equity, % 17.6 13.1 7.6 -2.6 -6.2Cost / income ratio 0.55 0.62 -0.10 -0.04 0.05Credit loss level, % 0.63 0.30 0.36 0.50 0.19

Basel II - fully implementedTier I capital ratio, % 10.1 10.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2Risk-weighted assets, SEK bn 818 818 48 81 81

Page 8: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

8

Profit and loss accountQ4 2008 vs. Q4 2007SEK m Q4 Q4 Change Excluding

2008 2007 % portfoliosNet interest income 5,513 4,375 26Net fee and commissions 3,790 4,129 -8Net financial income 1,723 420Net life insurance income 516 766 -33Net other income 1,172 345

Total operating income 12,714 10,035 27 17%Staff costs -4,597 -3,787 21Other expenses -1,968 -1,782 10Depreciation of assets -400 -359 11

Total operating expenses -6,965 -5,928 17Gain/loss tangible/intangible assets 2 787 -100Net credit losses etc -1,723 -313

Operating profit 4,028 4,581 -12 -24%Net profit 3,507 3,757 -7 -19%

Page 9: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

9

Profit and loss accountQ4 2008 vs. Q3 2008SEK m Q4 Q3 Change Excluding

2008 2008 % portfoliosNet interest income 5,513 4,553 21Net fee and commissions 3,790 3,754 1Net financial income 1,723 247Net life insurance income 516 504 2Net other income 1,172 163

Total operating income 12,714 9,221 38 41%Staff costs -4,597 -3,752 23Other expenses -1,968 -1,820 8Depreciation of assets -400 -398 1

Total operating expenses -6,965 -5,970 17Gain/loss tangible/intangible assets 2Net credit losses etc -1,723 -725 138

Operating profit 4,028 2,526 59 71%Net profit 3,507 1,886 86 97%

Page 10: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

10

Profit and loss accountJan – Dec 2008 vs. Jan – Dec 2007SEK m Jan – Dec Jan – Dec Change Excluding

2008 2007 % portfoliosNet interest income 18,710 15,998 17Net fee and commissions 15,254 17,051 -11Net financial income 2,970 3,239 -8Net life insurance income 2,375 2,933 -19Net other income 1,831 1,219 50Total operating income 41,140 40,440 2 0% Staff costs -16,241 - 14,921 9Other expenses -7,642 - 6,919 10Depreciations/amortisations -1,524 - 1,354 13Total operating expenses -25,407 - 23,194 10Gain/loss tangible/intangible assets 6 788 -99Net credit losses etc -3,268 - 1,016Operating profit 12,471 17,018 -27 -28%Net Profit 10,050 13,642 -26 -27%

Page 11: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

11

SEB GroupIncome, Expenses and Operating profit, SEK m

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,000

Q1-04

Q2-04

Q3-04

Q4-04

Q1-05

Q2-05

Q3-05

Q4-05

Q1-06

Q2-06

Q3-06

Q4-06

Q1-07

Q2-07

Q3-07

Q4-07

Q1-08

Q2-08

Q3-08

Q4-08

Excluding portfolios Income Expenses

Operating profit

-2 000

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

Q1-04

Q2-04

Q3-04

Q4-04

Q1-05

Q2-05

Q3-05

Q4-05

Q1-06

Q2-06

Q3-06

Q4-06

Q1-07

Q2-07

Q3-07

Q4-07

Q1-08

Q2-08

Q3-08

Q4-08

*

* One-off charges of SEK 890m in Q4 2005 ** Including sales of Baltic properties in Q4 2007 of SEK 785m

**

*

Page 12: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

12

15,998

18,710

796481

823

1,218

-606

Jan-Dec2007

Lendingmargin

Lendingvolume

Depositmargin

Depositvolume

Funding &other

Jan-Dec2008

Net interest income analysisSEB Group Jan – Dec 2008 vs. Jan – Dec 2007SEK m

Page 13: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

13

4,375

5,513

15

343143

180

457

Q4 2007 Lendingmargin

Lendingvolume

Depositmargin

Depositvolume

Funding &other

Q4 2008

Net interest income analysisSEB Group Q4 2008 vs. Q4 2007SEK m

Page 14: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

14

4,553

5,513

253147

-331

80

811

Q3 2008 Lendingmargin

Lendingvolume

Depositmargin

Depositvolume

Funding &other

Q4 2008

Net interest income analysisSEB Group Q4 2008 vs. Q3 2008SEK m

Page 15: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

15

Net interest and Net fee and commission incomeSEB Group, SEK m

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Q1-04

Q2-04

Q3-04

Q4-04

Q1-05

Q2-05

Q3-05

Q4-05

Q1-06

Q2-06

Q3-06

Q4-06

Q1-07

Q2-07

Q3-07

Q4-07

Q1-08

Q2-08

Q3-08

Q4-08

Net interest income Net fee and commissions

Page 16: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

16

Fee and commission incomeGross quarterly development Q1 2004 – Q4 2008 SEB Group, SEK m

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

New issues &advisory

Secondarymarket &

derivatives

Custody &mutual funds

Payment, cards,structuredlending,

deposits,guarantees

Other

Deal driven

Securitiestransaction

driven

Value driven –performance

driven Non-capital market driven

Capital market driven

*

* Q2 2006 adjusted for gross commission on security lending, SEK 200m

Page 17: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

17

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Net financial income Net life insurance income Net other income

Net financial, Life insurance and Other incomeQuarterly development Q1 2004 – Q4 2008 SEB Group, SEK m

Page 18: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

18

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Staff costs Other expenses Restructuring costs

Cost development per quarterQuarterly development Q1 2004 – Q4 2008* SEB Group, SEK m

* Include capitalisation of acquisition cost in Life from Q1 2005 – onwards** One-off charges of SEK 890m in Q4 2005 and 600m in Q4 2008

**

Page 19: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

19

25,12223,194

25,407

1,004

1,691 170

-937

768

-483

Jan-Dec2007

Inflation Organicgrowth +

Acq

Depreciation Variablesalaries

Cost beforeefficiency

gains

Efficiencygains

Redundancycost

Jan-Dec2008

19

SEK 1,029m from the start

of 2007

Cost managementTotal expenses, Jan-Dec 2008 vs. Jan-Dec 2007

Page 20: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

20

Return on equitySEB Group, per cent

21.1

14.214.715.8

20.8

13.1

19.3

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Excluding portfolios Return on Equity

Page 21: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

21

0.65 0.650.58 0.57

0.62

0.550.60

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

C/I ratio Excluding portfolio losses

Cost/income ratioSEB Group

Page 22: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

22

Basic earnings per shareSEB Group, SEK

21,83

15,78

10,8312,58

18,72

14,66

19,97

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Excluding portfolios Earnings per share

Page 23: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

23

Operating profit, 12 months rolling SEB Group*, SEK m

* Excluding one-off charges

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Q1-04

Q2-04

Q3-04

Q4-04

Q1-05

Q2-05

Q3-05

Q4-05

Q1-06

Q2-06

Q3-06

Q4-06

Q1-07

Q2-07

Q3-07

Q4-07

Q1-08

Q2-08

Q3-08

Q4-08

Income

Expenses

Operatingprofit

Page 24: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

24

Impact from exchange rate fluctuationsSEB Group

SEK m F-y 2008 H2/H1-08 Q4/Q3-08Income 509 380 305Expenses -293 -250 -210Operating profit 150 45 10SEK bnLoans to the public 78 59Deposits to the public 64 48RWA- Basel I 80 60Balance sheet 209 156

EUR period end

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

11.50

12.00

Jan2008

Feb2008

Mar2008

Apr2008

May2008

Jun2008

Jul2008

Aug2008

Sep2008

Oct2008

Nov2008

Dec2008

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

Jan2008

Feb2008

Mar2008

Apr2008

May2008

Jun2008

Jul2008

Aug2008

Sep2008

Oct2008

Nov2008

Dec2008

USD period end

Page 25: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

25

Assets under managementSEB Group, SEK bn

Assets under management year-end 2007 1,370Inflow 295 (14%)Outflow -261 (29%)Acquisition/disposal net 17 Change in value -220 (-523%)

Assets under management year-end 2008 1,201 ** Of which:Retail Banking 74Wealth Management 1,142Life 346

Page 26: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

26

SEB Group net inflow AuM Jan – Dec 2008, SEK bn

43.0

34.3

2.31.3

-11.6

-0.7

Sweden Other Nordic Germany Baltic countries& Poland

Other & Elim Group

Page 27: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

27

Balance sheet Dec 2008 Sep 2008 Dec 2007

Cash and balances with central banks 44,852 18,733 96,871Loans to credit institutions 266,363 300,591 263,012Loans to the public 1,296,777 1,226,633 1,067,341Financial assets at fair value 635,454 620,099 661,223Available-for-sale financial assets 163,115 171,464 170,137Held-to-maturity investments 1,997 2,067 1,798Investment in associates 1,129 1,387 1,257Tangible and intangible assets 29,511 27,163 24,697Other assets 71,504 50,154 58,126

Total assets 2,510,702 2,418,291 2,344,462Deposits by credit institutions 429,425 399,940 421,348Deposits and borrowings from the public 841,034 794,266 750,481Liabilities to policyholders 211,070 206,473 225,916Debt securities 525,219 554,257 510,564Financial liabilities at fair value 295,533 248,142 216,390Other liabilities 71,565 90,500 97,519 Provisions 1,897 1,378 1,536Subordinated liabilities 51,230 45,736 43,989Total equity 83,729 77,599 76,719

Total liabilities and equity 2,510,702 2,418,291 2,344,462

Page 28: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

28

Relationship Deposits from and Lending to the public 2001 – 2008

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Deposits to loans ratio

Page 29: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

29

Subordinated debt 3%

Mortgage covered bonds Germany

3%

Senior debt 2%

Deposits – General public 42%

Schuldscheins and Registered bonds

3%

Public covered bonds Germany

7%

Deposits – Central banks 7%

Commercial paper/ Certificates of deposit 8%

Mortgage covered bonds Sweden 10%

Deposits – Financial institutions 15%

Funding structureSEB Group, Dec 2008SEK 1,787bn

* Over collateral within cover pools SEK 48bn, which may be used for further covered bond issuance or pledged for central bank borrowing.

Page 30: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

30

Net liquidity position across maturities31 Dec, SEK bn

6-8 months matched funding, i.e. based on no access to capital markets, no refinancing of debt to credit institutions, issued bonds or subordinated capital; and moderate reduction of business activities.

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1 week

2 weeks

4 weeks

2 months

3 months

4 months

5 months

6 months

6-7m

7-8m

9 months

9-10m

10-11m

12 months

Year-end 2008 SEB is match-funded approx.

6-8 months

SEK bn

Page 31: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

31

7.9 8.0 7.8 7.5 8.29.9 10.1

12.1

10.5 10.2 10.3 10.8 11.512.6

14.6

12.8

Dec2002

Dec2003

Dec2004

Dec2005

Dec2006

Dec2007

Dec2008

Dec2008

Total capital ratio, %

Tier I capital ratio, %

Capital adequacy SEB Group

SEK bnCapital base 52.7 54.7 58.7 76.2 85.8 93.0 100.3 121.0Risk-w. Assets 503 535 570 704 741 737 818 818

Basel I 9,3%

Basel I 7,3%

Basel I 1,127

Basel II(without transition rules)

*

* Proforma after capital measures

Page 32: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

32

Asset quality

Page 33: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

33

Credit exposure On and off balance, SEK 1,934bn

15%

40%

14%

6%

25%

Property Management

Public Administration

BanksCorporates

Households

By sector

Page 34: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

34

Credit exposure On and off balance, SEK bn

Dec 2008 (Dec 2007) Swedish Other German Baltic Total Nordic*

Corporates 391 (293) 175 (123) 120 (72) 95 (83) 782 (571)

Property Management 105 (82) 22 (18) 104 (87) 32 (26) 262 (212)

Households 269 (248) 45 (45) 104 (87) 68 (55) 486 (434)

Public Administration 32 (16) 2 (3) 79 (66) 6 (3) 119 (88)

Total non-banks 797 (637) 244 (189) 407 (312) 200 (166) 1,649 (1,304)

Banks 175 (152) 41 (35) 68 (58) 2 (3) 286 (248)

Total 972 (790) 285 (223) 475 (369) 202 (169) 1,934 (1,552)

* Incl. other

Currency effect, SEK bn +41 +61 +27 +129

Page 35: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

35

Dec -05 Dec -06 Dec -07 Sep -08 Dec -08Corporates 494 484 571 720 782

Property Management 192 192 212 245 262

Households 319 374 434 469 486

Public Administration 125 97 88 113 119

Total non-banks 1,130 1,146 1,304 1,547 1,649Banks 198 169 248 258 286

Total 1,328 1,315 1,552 1,805 1,934

Credit exposure On and off balance, SEK bn

Page 36: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

36

Credit exposure – householdsSEK bn

240 269 330 37179 105

104 115

Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008

Mortgage Other434

319 374

486

Page 37: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

37

186219 227 235 235 236

55 67 68 70 72 79

28 44 45 47 50 55

68

73 7679 78 78

27 20 20 21 22 25

1010 11 11 11 12

Dec'06

Dec'07

Mar'08

Jun'08

Sep'08

Dec'08

Dec'06

Dec'07

Mar'08

Jun'08

Sep'08

Dec'08

Dec'06

Dec'07

Mar'08

Jun'08

Sep'08

Dec'08

Mortgage Other

Households credit portfolioSEK bn

Nordic Germany Baltics

Page 38: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

3838

Corporate credit exposure – by industrySEB Group, SEK bn

494 484

571

782

Dec2005

Dec2006

Dec2007

Dec2008

12%

11%

10%

19%3%

29%

16%

Finance and insurance Wholesale and retailTransportation Other service sectorsConstruction ManufacturingOther

Page 39: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

39

40.3%

34.5%

3.4%

2.8%

6.4%

8.1%3.3% 1.2%

Sweden Germany EstoniaLatvia Lithuania Other NordicOther European Other

Property management – by geography*SEB Group, SEK bn

101 111 137169

90 8175

93

Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008

Commercial Multi-family

192 192212

262

* By obligor’s domicile

Page 40: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

40

0.8%

1.4%

0.3%

2.8%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Dec'03

Mar'04

Jun'04

Sep'04

Dec'04

Mar'05

Jun'05

Sep'05

Dec'05

Mar'06

Jun'06

Sep'06

Dec'06

Mar'07

Jun'07

Sep'07

Dec'07

Mar'08

Jun'08

Sep'08

Dec'08

SEB Group Germany Nordic Baltic

* Impaired loans gross* *Excluding Banks

Impaired loan volumes* % of Credit Exposure**

Page 41: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

41

Impaired loans and reservesSEB Group, SEK m

Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008Impaired loansNon-performing, gross (60 days) 7,957 7,123 7,619 12,963Performing, gross 1,144 1,403 772 948Impaired loans, gross 9,101 8,526 8,391 13,911Specific reserves 4,787 4,234 3,787 5,022Collective reserves 2,283 2,170 2,602 4,197Off-balance sheet reserves 268 215 209 251Total reserves 7,338 6,619 6,598 9,470Reserve ratio 77.7% 75.1% 76.1% 66,3%

Page 42: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

42

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Germany Baltics Nordics SEB Group

Level of net credit losses, %Estonia 1.17Latvia 1.43Lithuania 1.26.Baltics 1.28

Page 43: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

43

Credit losses and build up of reserves SEB Group, SEK m

Sum Average/ Jan – Dec Jan – Dec Change8 quarters quarter 2007 2008

Net credit losses, quarterly 2007 – 2008ProvisionsNet collective provisions -1,693 -212 -390 -1,303 -913Specific provisions 2,371 -296 - 653 -1,718 -1,065Reversals of specificprovisions no longer required 741 93 405 336 -69Net provisions for contingent liabilities -48 -6 8 -56 -64Net provisions (build-up of reserve) -3,371 -421 - 630 -2,741 -2,111Write-offsTotal write-offs -2,823 -353 - 1,395 -1,428 -33Reversal of specific provisionsutilized for write-offs 1,410 176 711 699 -12Write-offs not previously provided for -1,413 -177 - 684 -729 -45Recovered from previous write-offs 532 67 293 239 -54Net write-offs -881 -110 - 391 -490 -99

Net credit losses -4,252 -532 - 1,021 -3,231 -2,210Change in value of seized assets -32 -4 5 -37 -42Net credit losses incl change in value -4,284 -536 -1,016 -3,268 -2,252

Page 44: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

44

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Net credit losses, quarterly 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008

ProvisionsNet collective provisions -89 212 -114 -220 -71 15 -112 11 -318 -884Specific provisions -124 -455 -245 -77 -100 -231 -190 -409 -331 -787Reversals of specific provisions no longer required 133 173 75 87 80 163 44 79 71 142Net provisions for contingent liabilities 1 10 31 -7 8 -24 1 2 -23 -36

Net provisions (build-up of reserve) -80 -60 -253 -217 -83 -77 -257 -317 -601 -1,566

Write-offsTotal write-offs -334 -444 -243 -240 -350 -562 -332 -367 -265 -464Reversal of specific provisionsutilized for write-offs 196 221 124 131 214 242 201 217 71 210Write-offs not previously provided for -138 -223 -119 -109 -136 -320 -131 -150 -194 -254Recovered from previous write-offs 81 62 135 43 30 85 24 19 79 117

Net write-offs -57 -161 16 -66 -106 -235 -107 -131 -115 -137

Net credit losses -137 -221 -237 -283 -189 -312 -364 -448 -716 -1,703

Change in value of seized assets 1 -1 3 3 - -1 -4 -4 -9 -20

Net credit losses incl change in value -136 -222 -234 -280 -189 -313 -368 -452 -725 -1,723

Credit losses and build up of reserves quarterly developmentSEB Group, SEK m

Page 45: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

45

17 22 23 18 21 25 34 39 468 8 94 5

78

1316

1419 23

1014

1613

22

29

95.2

76.4

56.349.8

41.433.6

56.650.0

40.7

Dec'06

Dec'07

Dec'08

Dec'06

Dec'07

Dec'08

Dec'06

Dec'07

Dec'08

Banks

PublicAdministrationHouseholds

PropertyManagementCorporate

SEB Estonia SEB Latvia SEB Lithuania

Growth rates in local currency+38% +17% +40% +18% +47% +30%

2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007

-2%

2008 YTD

+5% +8% 2008 YTD 2008 YTD

Baltic countries – credit exposure On and off balance, SEK bn

Page 46: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

46

22 21 21 22 23 21 20 21 22 2539 40 42 45 468 7 8 8 9 5 5 5 6 7

13 13 13 15 16

19 19 20 20 2314 14 14 14 16

22 23 24 26 29

Dec'07

Mar'08

Jun'08

Sep'08

Dec'08

Dec'07

Mar'08

Jun'08

Sep'08

Dec'08

Dec'07

Mar'08

Jun'08

Sep'08

Dec'08

Banks

PublicAdministrationHouseholds

PropertyManagementCorporates

50.0 51.041.4 42.3

76.4 82.9

49.541.1

78.6

52.344.0

89.3 95.2

49.856.6

SEB Estonia SEB Latvia SEB Lithuania

Baltic countries – credit exposure On and off balance, SEK bn

Growth rates in local currency

+17% +18% +30%

2007 2007 2007

+2%

Q2

+3%

Q2 Q1Q1 Q1 Q2

+4%0% 0% +4%

Q3

-1% +1%

Q3 Q3

+4%

Q4

-3% +1%

Q4 Q4

-5%

Page 47: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

47

Baltic countries - asset quality

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Net credit losses Q1 2007 – Q4 2008, SEK m

Impaired Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4loans, % 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008

Estonia 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.0 2.3Corporate 0.2 0.5 2.0 2.2 2.5Private 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.1

Latvia 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.8Corporate 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.2Private 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.8 3.9

Lithuania 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 3.0Corporate 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 3.8Private 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7

Corporate including Property Management

Impaired loans gross

Page 48: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

48

SEB Estonia

SEB Latvia

SEB Lithuania

Total Baltic

Impaired loans, gross

1,287 1,346 2,867 5,499

Specific reserves 380 173 791 1,344Collective 546 603 612 1,761Off balance reserves

0 0 0 0

Total reserves 926 776 1,404 3,105

Reserve ratio 71.9% 57.7% 49.0% 56.5%

Baltic countries Impaired loans and reservesDecember 2008, SEK m

Impaired loans Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4SEK m 07 08 08 08 08

Estonia 186 334 819 1,019 1,287Corporate 47 132 570 657 799Private 138 202 249 362 488

Latvia 218 301 444 694 1,346Corporate 84 86 152 285 722Private 134 216 292 410 624

Lithuania 573 682 819 1,037 2,867Corporate 398 416 492 633 2,377Private 176 266 327 404 490

Page 49: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

49

Estonia Latvia Lithuania Total %

Net write-offs & actual losses 0 -13 -1 -15 0.8

Net new specific provisions -323 -142 -357 -822 46.3

Net new collective provisions -184 -352 -376 -912 51.4

Change in value of seized assets -4 -4 -18 -26 1.5

Net credit losses -512 -512 -752 -1,775

Baltic countries – net credit losses Jan – Dec 2008, SEK m

Page 50: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

50

Bond portfolios

Page 51: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

51

SEB bond portfolio*31 December 2008

Trading and Treasury etc

Held for trading (MTM over income) Available for sale (MTM over equity)

Investments (MB Credit & PortfolioManagement)

Fixed-income securities portfolio SEK 355bn

133

24

8

222 101

Loans & Receivables (MTM not recorded)

Acc 2007- Mark-to-market losses over– income of SEK 2,838m– equity of SEK 3,605m– Loans & Receivables (MTM not

recorded) of SEK 6,875mThe losses are expected to be recovered over timeFurther volatility from the mark-to-market is expected; however with limited impact on income since investment portfolio classification is:– 76 per cent Loans & Receivables,– 18 per cent Available-for-sale and– 6 per cent Held-for Trading

*Net of short and fully matched positions; excluding holdings in the insurance business

Page 52: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

52

*Net of short and fully matched positions; excluding holdings in the insurance business

ABS19%

Financials20%

Covered bonds19%

Cover pool27%

Corp, Gov't etc

15%

Merchant Banking 190Group Treasury 156

Other divisions 9

Total 355

SEB bond portfolio*31 December, 2008, SEK bn

Page 53: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

53

Merchant Banking bond portfolios31 December, 2008

Capital Markets and other

21%60%

15%

4%

Corporate bonds Financial institutionsGov't Covered bonds

Volume SEK 59bn

Trading

Volume SEK 133bn

InvestmentsCredit & Portfolio Management

51%

39%

10%Structured credits Financial institutionsCovered bonds

Page 54: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

54

Bond investment portfolio – status31 December, 2008 (31 December, 2007)

Structured creditsVolume: SEK 68bn (71)AAA-rating: 93.0% (99.3)No level 3 assetsStill amortising, no impaired assets

Financial institutions Volume: SEK 52bn (55)No level 3 assetsNo impaired assets

Covered bonds etc. SEK 13bn (5)

The unrealised valuation loss on the fixed-income securities reclassified during 2008 amounted to SEK 6,875m at year-end 2008.

2007 2008 Acc Q3 08P/L -1,769 -1,069 -2,838 56 -187

-635-579

-2,907-3,976

-3,605-6,443

-698-2,467

Q4 08

Equity -585MTM (SEK m) -772

Page 55: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

55

Bond investment portfolio – financial effects31 December, 2008, SEK m

Structured credits Financial institutions

+ Covered bonds etc accumulated -920

2007 2008 Acc Q3 08-2,126

-2,086

-4,212

27

-187

-160

P/L

Equity

-1,056

-626 -1,460 -271

-1,682

Q4 08-1,070 -262

-2,530 -533

2007 2008 Acc Q3 08-572

-739

-1,311

84

-113

-29

P/L

Equity

-563

-72 -667 -64

-635

Q4 08-9 11

-676 -53

2007 2008 Acc Q3 08P/L -1,769 -1,069 -2,838 56 -187

-635-579

-2,907-3,976

-3,605-6,443

-698-2,467

Q4 08

Equity -585MTM (SEKm) -772

Page 56: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

56

Bond investment portfolio – strategy

1. Limit P/L volatility by increasing AFS portfolios and reducing HFT portfolios.2. Use IAS 39 possibility to reclassify holdings to further limit volatility.

30 29

0

26

41

5

ABS Financialinstitutions

Coveredbonds etc.

Q4 07 Q4 08

Held for trading (MTM over income)

Available for sale (MTM over equity)

SEKbn

7 413

45

0350

56

ABS Financialinstitutions

Coveredbonds etc.

Loans and Receivables(MTM not recorded)

Page 57: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

57

Distribution of bond investment portfolio31 December, 2008

Financial institutionsSEK 52bn

Structured creditsSEK 68bn

US35%

ES7%

UK16%

DK6% IT

5%NL7%

Other2%

Pan Europé22%

FR 8%

IT 6%

NL 7%

Other 15%

FI 2%SE 4%DE 2%

US 26%

UK 13%

ES 17%

Page 58: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

58

Main characteristics of structured credits portfolio 31 December, 2008

A high quality investment portfolio initiated 1998 with fixed-income securities eligible as central bank collateral

655 positions, well diversified across products, asset classes and geographies

93.0% of the portfolio is rated Aaa/AAA, only 1.8% below investment grade– Since the summer 2007, 60 of 655

positions have been downgraded

Mark-to-market prices applied to allpositions - no level 3 assets

Current average expected maturity ~3,5 years

Current annual amortisation rate is SEK ~10bn

CMBS 7%

CMO 13%

RMBS prime 33% RMBS

Non prime 5%

CLO 19%

CDO 7%

ABS 16%

Structured creditsSEK 68bn

Page 59: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

59

Bond investment portfolioStructured credits – rating composition (S&P, Moody’s and Fitch)Outstanding volumes, 31 December, 2008

1.8% 1.3% 0.5%3.5%

93.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

AAA AA/A BBB BB/B CCC/CC

Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

Page 60: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

60

Divisional level

Please note:A restatement of the divisional financial reporting has been carried out in conjunction with the Q1 2008 report as previously announced.Please consult www.sebgroup.com for more information.

Page 61: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

61

0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000

Life

WealthManagement

Retail Banking

MerchantBanking

Jan-Dec 2008

Jan-Dec 2007

Operating profit per divisionJan – Dec 2008 vs. Jan – Dec 2007SEK m

Changevs. Jan-Dec 2007

22% (9%)

-29%

-24%

-41%

ROEJan-Dec 2008

22.3% (25.0%)

12.7%

21.9%

12.5%

Excl. portfolio losses

Income Op.profitSweden: +5% -1%Germany: -3% -50%Estonia: +7% -49%Latvia: -5% -77%Lithuania: +5% -53%Kort: +8% -15%

Page 62: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

62

VolumesPublic lendingSEK bn

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008

MB 465 492 459 483 526 531 606 645Retail Banking 468 483 493 513 518 545 561 586RB Sweden 256 264 271 279 286 303 307 309RB Estonia 37 39 40 42 42 43 44 48RB Latvia 31 35 34 36 35 36 37 41RB Lithuania 46 50 54 59 60 64 69 76RB Germany 85 81 80 81 81 82 87 95RB Cards 13 14 14 14 14 17 17 17Wealth Management 30 31 33 32 31 29 28 28Life - - - - - - - -Other/Elim 54 42 36 39 24 27 31 38SEB Group 1,017 1,048 1,021 1,067 1,099 1,132 1,226 1,297

Affected by restated volumes

Page 63: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

63

VolumesPublic depositSEK bn

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008

MB 371 384 364 389 409 392 426 433Retail Banking 231 249 249 262 257 264 269 287RB Sweden 130 139 139 145 145 149 151 153RB Estonia 18 20 20 22 20 22 22 25RB Latvia 16 17 17 18 17 18 17 19RB Lithuania 25 26 26 30 28 28 30 32RB Germany 43 46 46 48 47 47 49 58RB Cards - - - - - - - -Wealth Management 47 54 51 53 54 56 52 48Life - - - - - - - -Other/Elim 20 28 43 46 45 46 47 73SEB Group 670 715 707 750 765 758 794 841

Page 64: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

64

FTEs, end of quarter

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008

MB 2,540 2,568 2,550 2,672 2,742 2,760 2,719 2,698 Retail Banking 8,655 8,912 8,807 8,925 8,995 9,325 9,139 8,951RB Sweden 2,742 2,812 2,660 2,736 2,733 2,875 2,738 2,720RB Estonia 1,011 1,095 1,061 1,061 1,048 1,084 1,046 1,036RB Latvia 1,052 1,089 1,117 1,118 1,108 1,122 1,093 1,006RB Lithuania 1,333 1,387 1,428 1,492 1,520 1,579 1,652 1,624RB Germany 1,668 1,699 1,728 1,733 1,802 1,830 1,794 1,746RB Cards 849 830 813 785 784 835 816 819Wealth Management 1,099 1,050 1,064 1,073 1,160 1,143 1,123 1,088Life 1,194 1,203 1,199 1,218 1,222 1,235 1,250 1,226Other/Elim 5,842 5,886 5,820 5,906 7,091 7,182 7,197 7,170SEB Group 19,330 19,619 19,440 19,794 21,210* 21,645 21,428 21,131

* Whereof 1,039 encompasses the consolidated acquisitions of Factorial bank in Ukraine and Key Asset Management.

Page 65: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

65

Summary per division Jan – Dec 2008

Merchant Banking

RetailBanking

WealthManagement Life Other Group

Operating profit, SEK m 8,350 4,262 2,011 1,063 -3,215 12,471

Business equity, SEK bn 27 25.3 ** 6.6 7.5 76.4 *

Return on equity, % 22.3 12.7 21.9 12.5 13.1

Cost / income ratio 0.45 0.61 0.57 0.67 0.62

RWA, SEK bn, Basel II 538 390 44 14 986

RWA, SEK bn, Basel I 613 439 24 51 1,127

Tax Rate 28% 24% 28% 12%

* Average shareholders' equity

** Where of Sweden 7.4bn Estonia 3.3bn, Latvia 3.1bn, Lithuania 4.4bn, Germany 4.5bn and Cards 2.6bn.

*** As from Jan 2009, the tax rate is 26.3%.

*** ***

Page 66: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

66

Summary per division Jan – Dec 2008Without floor

Merchant Banking

RetailBanking

WealthManagement Life Other Group

Operating profit, SEK m 8,350 4,262 2,011 1,063 -3,215 12,471

Business equity, SEK bn 27 25.3 ** 6.6 7.5 76.4 *

Return on equity, % 22.3 12.7 21.9 12.5 13.1

Cost / income ratio 0.45 0.61 0.57 0.67 0.62

RWA, SEK bn, Basel II 463 268 44 43 818

RWA, SEK bn, Basel I 613 439 24 51 1,127

Tax Rate 28% 24% 28% 12%

* Average shareholders' equity

** Where of Sweden 7.4bn Estonia 3.3bn, Latvia 3.1bn, Lithuania 4.4bn, Germany 4.5bn and Cards 2.6bn.

*** As from Jan 2009, the tax rate is 26.3%.

*** ***

Page 67: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

67

RoE and cost/income ratio per division

01020304050

MerchantBanking

Retail Banking WealthManagement

Life* Group

Jan - Dec 2007 Jan - Dec 2008Cost/income ratio per division

Return on Equity per division, per cent

* Based on operating profit

0.000.200.400.600.801.00

MerchantBanking

Retail Banking WealthManagement

Life Group

Jan - Dec 2007 Jan - Dec 2008

Page 68: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

68

Magnus CarlssonHead of Merchant Banking

Merchant BankingHighlights

Income and operating profit the highest to date

Strong business volumes and customer demand

Lower investment banking revenues offset by increases in commercial banking

Credit loss provisions increase from a low level

– in general asset quality remains stable

– continued conservative approach to provisioning

SEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Δ 2007

Total income 16,828 12%Interest, net 7,414 32%Commission, net 5,248 -12%Financial, net 3,625 39%

Total expenses -7,579 -3%Credit losses, net -904 177%Operating profit 8,350 22%

RoE, % 22.3 18.7C/I 0.45 0.52

Page 69: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

69

Merchant Banking SEK m

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

Operating profit Excluding portfolios

01,000

2,0003,0004,0005,000

6,0007,000

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

Excluding portfolios Income Expenses

Page 70: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

70

47%

34%

19%

Share of income and result by areaJan – Dec 2008, per cent of total

Income Operating profit

51%32%

17%

Trading and Capital Markets

Global Transaction Services

CorporateBanking

Trading and Capital Markets

Global Transaction Services

CorporateBanking

Page 71: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

71

Trading and Capital MarketsSEK m

0300600900

1,2001,5001,8002,1002,4002,700

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

Operating profit Excluding portfolios

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,500

3,0003,500

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

Excluding portfolios Income Expenses

Page 72: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

72

Trading and Capital Markets– focus on client driven activities

44%36%26% 28% 33% 38% 41%

63%46%50%

44% 46% 59%44%

45%

19%

12%8%22% 15% 11%3%

6%

21%

6%11%8% 7%

5% 8%

Q1 -07

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 -08

Q2 Q3 Q4

Trading and Capital Markets income by main product cluster, excl. investment portfolios

FX

Structured Derivatives and other TCM

Equities

Capital Markets

Focus on customer flows ensures continued strong revenues

Continued strong results in FX

Lower volumes but increased market shares in Equities

Normalisation of results in fixed income units

-2%

-3%

Page 73: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

73

Operating profit

0200400600800

1,000

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

Income Expenses

Corporate Banking SEK m

Page 74: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

74

Operating profit

0

100

200

300

400

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

0100200300400500600700800900

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

Income Expenses

Global Transaction Services SEK m

Page 75: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

75

Custody volume development

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 20080

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000Assets under custody, SEK bn No of transactions/day

Page 76: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

76

Market Shares Nordic Stock Exchanges *Jan – Dec 2008

*Source: The Nordic Stock exchanges**Rank based on announced deals. All Nordic involvement. Source: Thomson Reuters

3.9%

4.3%

5.2%

5.4%

9.2%

Danske Bank

Carnegie

MorganStanley

SHB

SEB

Nordic M&A**

Jan – Dec 2008 (EUR m)

Merchant BankingInvestment banking rankings

9,762

12,978

13,327

16,574

18,987

SEB

UBS

MorganStanley

DeutscheBank

JP Morgan

14 Deals

16 Deals

15 Deals

19 Deals

37 Deals

Page 77: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

77

Merchant Banking – Recent rankingsJanuary 2009

Best Trade Finance bank, Nordic Region, Sweden, Latvia and LithuaniaBest Overall Bank for Cash Management, Nordic RegionBest Bank for Liquidity Management, Nordic RegionBest Bank for Risk Management, Nordic Region

February 2009 Best Arranger Nordic Loans 2008

October 2008 No. 1 Globally for Overall Customer Satisfaction regarding Cash ManagementBest for Real Estate Commercial Banking in the Nordic and Baltic region

January 2009 Top rated in Central and Eastern Europe

January 2009 Best Equity House in the Nordic region

January 2009 Best Cash ManagemenBest Financial Supp

t Bank, Nordic Regionly Chain Bank, Nordic Region and Eastern Europe

Thomson Rueters Extel September 2008 Best Trade Bank in Northern Europe & Scandinavia

July 2008 Best M&A House in the Nordic & Baltic region

July 2008 Best derivatives dealer in Sweden

June 2008 Best research house in the Nordic countries

April 2008World’s Best Developed Market Banks 2008, no. 1 in SwedenWorld’s Best Emerging Market Banks 2008 Central and Eastern Europe, no. 1 in Latvia and Lithuania

February 2008 Best Arranger Structured Products, Sweden

January 2008 Best Corporate Finance House in the Nordic Region* * Survey executed every 2nd year

Page 78: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

78

Retail BankingHighlightsMats Torstendahl

Head of Retail Banking

SEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Δ 2007

Total income 17,032 3%Interest, net 10,750 11%Commission, net 5,641 -9%

Total expenses -10,392 6%Credit losses, net -2,380 233%Operating profit 4,262 -29%

RoE, % 12.7 18.8C/I 0.61 0.59

Stable income, despite turbulent year– NII +11% vs. 2007 offsets low

security related feesCost growth affected by currency effects, Baltic real estate sale and higher pension costProfit before credit losses stable (-1% vs 2007)

Decrease in operating profit driven by increased provisions, mainly in the Baltic countries and Cards

Risk management and cost key focus areas across all business areas

Page 79: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

79

Retail BankingSEK m

Operating profit

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

Income Expenses

Page 80: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

80

Share of income and result by areaJan – Dec 2008, per cent of total

38%

19%8%

7%

13%

15%

Germany

Latvia

Estonia

SwedenLithuania

Cards

Income

17%

13%

4%7%

3%

56%

Germany

Latvia

Sweden

Lithuania

Cards

Estonia

Operating profit

Page 81: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

81

Business volume development by areaSEK bn Q4 2008 change vs. Q4 2007 (local currency)

58

29

31

23

68

18

12

17

71

241

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Germany

Sweden 8%

0%

4%

5%

28%

8%

0%

-3%

2%

5%

Mortgages Other lending

32

19

25

58

152

Deposits

5%

4%

-2%

-10%

-6%

Note: Figures for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania include SEB:s large corporate business volumesSwedish Other lending growth adjusted for transfered leasing volumes

Page 82: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

82

41%13%25%21%

Transaction account privateTransaction account corporate & publicSavings account privateSavings account corporate & public

Deposit breakdownPercent of total deposits, Dec 2008

45%

24%

21%

10%

Retail Total

Estonia

Sweden Germany

Latvia Lithuania

52%

9%

23%

16%

47%

2%

3%

48%

22%

17%

35%

26%

24%

18%

37%

21%

38%

11%

27%

24%

Page 83: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

83

Development of lending market shares – Baltics Per cent, Jan 2005 – Dec 2008

* Sampo as per Q1 2008Swedbank as per Q2 2008

SEBSwedbankDnB NordParex BankaSampo/Danske bankNordea

Estonia*

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Latvia

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Lithuania

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Page 84: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

84

Retail SwedenHighlightsSEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Δ 2007

Total income 6.484 5%Interest, net 4.726 15%Commission, net 1.490 -15%

Total expenses -3.916 5%Credit losses, net -191 197%Operating profit 2.377 -1%

RoE, % 23.1 24.1C/I 0.60 0.60

Total lending* 308.700 7%Total deposits 152.400 5%

* Adjusted for moved leasing volumes, lending increased with 10%

SEB #1 market position for Swedish household savings (SEB Sparbarometer)

Best SME bank 2008 according to Privata Affärer

Continued growth in mortgages and deposits, +8% and +5% respectively

Stable mortgage margin development during 2008

Growth in attractive client segments, e.g. more than 10 000 new SME clients

Page 85: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

85

Business volume developmentRetail Sweden, SEK bn

Mortgages

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

CorporatePrivate

Other lending*

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Deposits

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q2 Q4

* Excluding leasing

Page 86: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

86

Market share development Sweden, per cent Corporate

Private

Note: Other lending and deposits=SEB Parent Bank Sweden, i.e. not only Retail Sweden

Mortgages*

0

5

10

15

20

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Other lending

0

5

10

15

20

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Deposits

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

* New measurement method from Q4 2007. Lowers the volume market share with approximately 0.2 percentage points

Page 87: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

87

Mortgages private marketRetail Sweden, market share, per cent

02468

101214161820

Q105

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q106

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q107

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q108

Q2 Q3 Q4

Sales Volume

* New measurement method from Q4 2007. Lowers the volume market share with approximately 0.2 percentage points

*

Page 88: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

88

Mortgages private marketTotal Sweden, volumes and margins

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q12005

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3 Q40.00%

0.25%

0.50%

0.75%

1.00%

1.25%Outstanding volume, SEK bn Average margin

Page 89: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

89

Mortgages private marketSweden, customers’ choice of fixed / floating interest rates

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q12005

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3 Q4

FixedFloating

Page 90: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

90

Retail GermanyHighlightsSEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Δ 2007

Total income 3,250 -3%Interest, net 1,963 3%Commission, net 1,230 -12%

Total expenses -3,060 1%Credit losses, net -58 -13%Operating profit 134 -50%

RoE, % 2.4 5.0C/I 0.94 0.90

Total lending 94,300 16%Total deposits 58,100 22%

Increased deposit volumes (+4% local currency) combined with stable lending volumes

Increased net interest income did not fully compensate for market effect on securities-related commissions

Costs and credit losses, measured in local currency, lower than in 2007

Profitability remained at an unsatisfactory level

Page 91: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

91

Business volume developmentRetail Germany, EUR bn

Mortgages*

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Other lending

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Deposits

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Figures above present Mortgage, lending and deposits from private individuals and SME

* Effected by amortizations on large historical sales volumes, partly sold through external sales organizations

Page 92: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

92

New mortgage*

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Customer appointments*

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Insurance

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

* by Call centre

EUR m EUR m

* incl. prolongation

Sales developmentRetail Germany

Page 93: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

93

Retail Estonia

Highlights

Best bank in Estonia 2008 according to The Banker

Lending market shares continued to decrease during 2008, in particular for corporate lending

Mortgage volumes remained stable, while “other lending” decreased slightly during second half of 2008

Strong market shares for long term savings: life insurance 29%, asset management 40%

Stable deposit volumes during 2008

Increased credit provisions

SEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Δ 2007

Total income 1,399 7%Interest, net 939 8%Commission, net 331 -6%

Total expenses -577 21%Credit losses, net -509 138%Operating profit 313 -49%

RoE, % 8.1 15.0C/I 0.41 0.36

Total lending 48,200 +14%Total deposits 25,000 +13%

Page 94: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

94

Business volume developmentRetail Estonia, EUR bn Corporate

Private

Mortgages

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Other lending

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Deposits

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Mortgages defined as home loans to private individualsNote: Figures include SEB:s large corporate business volumes

Page 95: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

95

Market share developmentRetail Estonia, per cent Corporate

PrivateMortgages

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Deposits

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Mortgage market share for home loans to private individuals

Page 96: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

96

Retail Latvia

HighlightsHighlightsSEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Δ 2007

Total income 1,274 -5%Interest, net 1,023 3%Commission, net 201 -41%

Total expenses -624 15%Credit losses, net -496 345%Operating profit 155 -77%

RoE, % 4.2 18.2C/I 0.49 0.41

Total lending 41.300 16%Total deposits 18,900 4%

Decreased lending market shares during 2008, stable lending volume development

Strong market shares for long term savings, life insurance 41%, investment funds 49%

Campaign activity focused on investments and savings

Reduction in commission income affected by accounting changes

Increased credit provisions

Page 97: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

97

CorporatePrivate

Business volume developmentRetail Latvia, EUR bn

Mortgages

0

1

2

3

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Other lending

0

1

2

3

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Deposits

0

1

2

3

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Mortgages defined as home loans to private individuals

Note: Figures include SEB:s large corporate business volumes

Page 98: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

98

Market share developmentRetail Latvia, per cent

Mortgage market share for home loans to private individuals

CorporatePrivate

Mortgages

0

5

10

15

20

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Deposits

0

5

10

15

20

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Page 99: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

99

Retail LithuaniaSEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Δ 2007

Total income 2,132 5%Interest, net 1,592 5%Commission, net 418 0%

Total expenses -857 15%Credit losses, net -725 479%Operating profit 549 -53%

RoE, % 10.6 21.9C/I 0.40 0.37

Total lending 76,200 28%Total deposits 32,300 9%

Highlights

Best bank in Lithuania 2008 according to The Banker

Decreased lending market shares during 2008, mainly driven by reduced corporate lending share

Strong market positions for long-term savings, e.g. asset management 46%, life insurance 25%

Stable deposit volume development during 2008

C/I remained at a low level, but credit provisions increased

Page 100: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

100

Business volume developmentRetail Lithuania, EUR bn Corporate

Private

Mortgages

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Other lending

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Deposits

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Mortgages defined as home loans to private individualsNote: Figures include SEB:s large corporate business volumes

Page 101: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

101

Market share developmentRetail Lithuania, per cent

Mortgage market share for home loans to private individuals

CorporatePrivate

Mortgages

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Deposits

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Q205

Q4 Q206

Q4 Q207

Q4 Q208

Q4

Page 102: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

102

CardsSEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Δ 2007

Total income 2.498 8%Interest, net 505 60%Commission, net 1,955 1%

Total expenses -1,363 3%Credit losses, net -401 201%Operating profit 734 -15%

RoE, % 20.3 29.7C/I 0.55 0.57

Highlights

Strong growth in underlying business

– result before losses +14% despite higher funding costs / interest rates 2008

Several new customer offers launched, e.g. Eurocard Platinum

Eurocard launched in Finland

Increased provisions for credit losses and fraud*

* Credit loss comparison significantly affected by accounting changes (DEL now included in Retail)

Page 103: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

103

Cards

Turnover cards

203040506070

Q12003

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12004

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12005

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3 Q4

SEK bn

Number of cards

2.62.83.03.23.4

Q12005

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3 Q4

Millions

Page 104: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

104

Fredrik BohemanHead of Wealth Management

Wealth ManagementHighlights

Revenues stable despite stock market depreciation, down -8% since 2007

Strong net sales 33bn, especially compared to peers driven by Private Banking, Large Institutions and Alternatives

Assets under management. SEK 1,142bn, -11% since year end

The number of FTE:s fell to 1,088 compared to 1,123 in Q3 and 1,073 in 2007

SEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Δ 2007

Total income 4,687 -8%Interest, net 891 6%Commission, net 3,681 -10%

Total expenses -2,659* 9%

Operating profit 2,011 -24%

RoE, % 21,9 34,5C/I 0.57 0.48

*6% of the 9% are disturbing items in a comparison and consists of KAM. Adjusted for this the costs increased with 3%.

Page 105: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

105

69%

31%

Private Banking

Institutional Clients

Income

79%

21%

Private Banking

Institutional Clients

2007: 76% vs. 24%

Operating result

2007: 69% vs. 31%

Share of income and result by areaJan – Dec 2008; percent of total

Page 106: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

106

Operating profit

0

200

400

600

800

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,400

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

Income Expenses

Wealth ManagementSEK m

Page 107: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

107

Institutional ClientsSEK m

Operating profit

0

200

400

600

800

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,100

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

Income Expenses

Page 108: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

108108

Private BankingSEK m

Operating profit

050

100150200250

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

0

100

200

300

400

500

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

Income Expenses

Page 109: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

109109

39% 38% 38% 39% 39% 39% 40% 40% 40% 41%40%

Q1-06 Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

Institutional portf incl Stiftelser & Ftg (excl MF) Mutual Funds Private Clients

48%

1,107 1,0791,147 1,192

1,266 1,320 1,300 1,285 1,256

48% 47% 47% 46% 46% 45% 45% 45% 44%

13% 14% 15% 15%15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%

39% 38% 38% 39% 39% 40% 40% 40% 41%40%

1,217

46%

40%

14%

1,181

48%

39%

13%

1,142

Assets under managementper product typeWealth Management, SEK bn

Page 110: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

110

1,285

1,142

33

73

-250

Dec 2007 Value Fx Net sales Dec 2008

Assets under managementSEK bnWealth down -11,1% since Y-E. Up 4,2% since November

Page 111: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

111

Total net sales per quarterSEK bn

7.6

15.5

6.32.0

8.2 9.0

-2.9

4.1

2.9 2.6

3.55.8

4.9 5.3

3.0

16.4

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3 Q4

IC PB

2007 2008IC 45,8 17,2PB 13,1 19,0

Note: The figures are not eliminated. Restated transfer of Foundations & Companies from PB to IC.

Page 112: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

112

Total amount SEK 444 bn (SEK 514 bn)

27%

31%

14%

28%

Equity funds 27% (43%)

Fixed income funds 28% (24%)

Balanced funds 14% (12%)

Alternative funds 31% (21%)

Note: Key Asset Mgmt is included from Q1-08 but not restated 2007

Mutual funds per product type Wealth Management, Dec 2008 (Dec 2007)

Page 113: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

113

Swedish mutual funds marketNet sales and SEB market share

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Total Net Sales, SEK bn SEB share, %

%N/A

Source: Svensk Fondstatistik

SEK -17,5bn

SEBSEK +6,5bn

Page 114: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

114

Activity level – Wealth

Source: Svensk Fondstatistik

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Jan-05

Maj Sep Jan-06

May Sep Jan-07

May Sep Jan-08

May Sep

SEBSHBRoburNordea

Mutual Funds Net Sales SwedenCumulative Jan 2005 – Dec 2008, including PPMSEK m

Distribution per type of fundJan – Dec 2008

-80%-60%-40%-20%

0%20%40%60%80%

SEB Total

Equity funds Mixed fundsShort bond funds Long bond fundsFund in fund Alternative funds

Page 115: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

115

6149

34

79

54

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

2006 2007 20080

20

40

60

80

100

AuMexceeding benchmark

No. of portfoliosexceeding benchmark

Performance vs. benchmark 2008

Page 116: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

116

LifeAnders MossbergHead of Life

* Based on business result

SEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Δ 2007

Total income 3,260 -17%Total expenses -2,197 3%

Operating profit 1,063 -41%Change in surplusvalues, net 989 -22%

Business result 2,052 33%

ROE, %* 24.1 36.1C/I ratio 0.67 0.54

Highlights

Positive sales development – up 10%, despite increasingly competitive markets and financial unrest

Lower operating profit mainly due to adverse equity and interest rate development and lower income from the unit-linked business

Page 117: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

117

LifeSEK m

Operating profit

0100200300400500

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

Income Expenses

Page 118: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

118

Share of income and profit by areaLife, Jan – Dec 2008, per cent of total

9%

33% 58%

Sweden

Denmark

International

Income Operating profit

48%46%

6%

Sweden

Denmark

International

Sweden including central functions etc

Page 119: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

119

Results – LifeSEK m

Jan – Dec Jan – Dec Change2008 2007 %

Income unit-linked 1,903 2,142 -11Income other insurance 788 1,208 -35Other income 569 580 -2Total income 3,260 3,930 -17

Operating expenses -2,461 -2,306 7Other expenses -24 -12 100Change in deferred acquisition costs 288 190 -52Total expenses -2,197 -2,128 3

Operating profit 1,063 1,802 -41Change in surplus values, net 989 1,273 -22Business result 2,052 3,075 -33 Financial effects due to market fluctuations -3,826 -62 -Change in assumptions -139 53 -Total result -1,913 3,066 -162

Page 120: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

120

1,063

-263-177 -121 -47

1817316

570

968

1,520

1,802

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Operating profit developmentLife, SEK m

Page 121: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

121

Strong market position in all marketsMarket shares, gross premium income, unit-linked insurance (%, 2008)

1

2

2

3

2

SEBRank

Skandia (15)

Hansa (37)

Sampo (35)

Hansa (30)

Main competitor

Danica (41)

* Sweden new sales** Denmark full year 2007

27

18

33

10

24

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Denmark**

Sweden*

SEB Market share Competitors

Page 122: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

122

Market shares, Sweden Unit-linked new business,12 months to September 2008 (2007)

Other 0,2% (0,2)

Moderna9,9% (13,5%)

AMF 3,0% (3,1%)

Folksam 8,0% (8,0%)

Danica 3,3% (4,1%)

SHB 4,5% (4,7%)

Swedbank 10,7% (10,5%)

LF 10,4% (10,1%)

Skandia13,9% (13,6%)

SEB Trygg Liv 23,8% (23,6%)

Nordea 7,7% (4,8%)

SPP 4,5% (3,7%)

Page 123: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

123

Note: SPE = Single premiums plus regular premiums times ten

Sales (SPE) Life, SEK m

Jan – Dec 2008 Jan – Dec 2007 Change

Unit linked 36,638 35,416 3%

Traditional andSickness/health 12,185 8,923 37%

48,823 44,339 10%

Page 124: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

124

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Traditional andsickness/health

Unit Linked

Note: SPE = Single premiums plus regular premiums times ten

Sales SPE – traditional vs. unit-linkedLife including SEB Pension from 2005 and the Baltics from 2006

Page 125: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

125

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Individual

Corporate

Note: SPE = Single premiums plus regular premiums times ten

Sales SPE – individual vs. corporateLife including SEB Pension from 2005 and the Baltics from 2006

Page 126: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

126

27.1

34.931.6

26.730.4

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Market ShareSweden, % 34.6 32.4 29.1 22.1 23.8**

*Including Swedish customers of the Irish subsidiary.

** 12 months to Q3 2008.

Unit-linked insurance salesSweden* sales volumes weighted, SEK bn

Page 127: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

127

New business profitLife (2005-2006 only Swedish market), SEK m

Full year Full year Full year Full year2008 2007 2006 2005

New sales (single/10+regular) 3,858 3,689 3,345 3,678

Net present value 1,598 1,775 1,788 1,924Acquisition cost -879 -901 -970 -1,116

New business profit 719 874 818 808

Margin, % 18.6 23.7 24.5 22.0Swedish market 20.8 22.9

Page 128: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

128

Dec Dec Dec Dec2008 2007 2006 2005

Equity * 8,827 8,836 8,450 7,696

Surplus value ** 11,549 14,496 12,872 10,765

* Dividend paid; 2008 SEK -1,275 2007: SEK -1,150 2006: SEK -400m.

** Value of in-force business; Net of DAC, including SEB Link (Denmark) from 2005

Embedded valueLife Holding group, SEK m

Page 129: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

129

Life, assets under management(net assets)SEK bn

215

311

368395 408

354

0

100

200

300

400

500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Traditional and Risk Unit-linked

Page 130: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

130

Life, premium income grossSEK bn

13

17

31 31

2629

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Traditional and Risk Unit-linked

Page 131: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

131

-16,000

-12,000

-8,000

-4,000

0

4,000

8,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Year

Income/Costs& CF, SEK

Cost Income Accum cash flow

Net present value after sales costs is 11,000 SEK

Acc op result -592 -540 977* SEK 35,000

Profits generated over timeExample: Occupational pension – regular premium*Total duration of 20 years and premium duration of 15 years

Page 132: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

132

Macro Update

Page 133: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

133

Overall assessment

Financial stress remains – global recession in both 2009 and 2010

Deflation threats – possibly even in the form of substantial wage moderation – will force new key rate cuts

Fiscal policy must become more proactive to support growth

Major budget deficits on the way

Page 134: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

134

Sweden: Deepest slump since the 1990s crisis

Exports continuing to lose momentum

Falling asset prices will squeeze consumption

Falling GDP in 2009 –and weak in 2010 too

Unemployment headed towards 10%

Inflation will decline rapidly – repo rate cuts to 0.50% in April 2009

Expansive fiscal policy and budget deficits

GDP and Economic tendency indicator

-10

12

34

56

7

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

GDP (LHS) Economic tendency indicator (RHS)

Sources: Statistics Sweden, SEB

Index

Year-on-year percentage change

Page 135: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

135

Broad-based slowdown

Rapid upturn in unemployment

Inflation pressure will gradually ease

Sight deposit rate cut to 2.00% in March 2009

Year-on-year percentage change

Source: Statistics Norway

Norway: Rapid deceleration

Mainland GDP and employment

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Employment GDP

Page 136: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

136

Finland: Gathering clouds

Continued slide in leading indicators –export sector especially hard hit

Private consumption will slow down

Unemployment will rise as inflation decelerates

Budget surplus will shift to deficit in 2010

Index

Source: Reuters EcoWin

Leading indicators

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08Manufacturing sector Service sectorConstruction industry

Page 137: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

137

Denmark: The recession is back

Broad decline in confidence indicators

Continued weak private consumption – exports squeezed from several directions

Credit crisis and higher unemployment will push home prices down further

A decline in the repo rate spread

Sources: DG ECFIN, Statistics Denmark

Year-on-year percentage change Index

GDP and Economic sentiment indicator

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

GDP (LHS) Economic sentiment indicator (RHS)

Page 138: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

138

Euro zone: Crisis hitting with full impact

Sources: Eurostat, SEB

IndexEuro zone GDP will fall by at least 2.2% in 2009No private consumption upturn in sightRising unemployment, no inflation threatPublic finances deteriorating on broad frontECB will slash refi rate to 0.50% in May 2009

GDP and Economic sentiment indicator

0

1

2

3

4

5

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080

30

60

90

120

150

GDP (LHS) Economic sentiment indicator (RHS)

Page 139: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

139

Baltics: Hard landingRecessions in 2009, deep in Latvia and EstoniaUnemployment will climb substantiallySharp decline in wage growth and much lower inflationBudgets will weaken in spite of fiscal austerity measuresAnemic domestic demand will improve current accounts furtherExchange rate risks have decreased after the IMF led Latvian package

Year-on-year percentage change

Source: Reuters EcoWin

Baltic Retail sales

-20-15-10

-505

101520253035

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Page 140: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

140

Regional GDP forecasts

2007 2008 2009 2010

United States 2.0 1.1 -2.1 1.3

Euro zone 2.6 1.0 -2.2 0.3

United Kingdom 3.0 0.8 -2.0 0.5

Nordic countries 3.1 1.3 -1.3 0.7

OECD 2.6 1.0 -1.2 0.6

World 5.0 3.4 0.9 2.3

Page 141: SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

141

SEB Forecasts GDP (%) Inflation (%)2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010

Denmark* 1.8 0.2 -1.5 0.0 1.7 3.6 1.8 1.8Finland* 4.4 1.8 -1.8 0.3 1.6 3.9 1.2 1.4Norway 3.7 1.9 0.1 1.8 0.8 3.8 1.7 2.1Sweden 2.9 0.8 -1.3 0.6 2.2 3.4 -0.2 0.6Germany* 2.5 1.3 -2.6 0.3 2.3 2.8 0.4 0.8Euro zone* 2.6 0.9 -2.2 0.3 2.1 3.3 0.6 1.0Estonia* 7.1 -2.0 -4.0 -1.0 6.6 10.6 3.9 1.9Latvia* 10.3 -1.8 -7.0 -1.0 10.1 15.3 5.0 3.0Lithuania* 8.8 3.2 -2.0 -2.0 5.8 11.1 8.0 7.0Russia 8.1 6.5 -1.0 3.0 9.0 14.0 9.8 8.5Ukraine 7.3 5.0 -5.0 2.0 12.8 24.5 15.0 10.0

Macro forecasts per country

Sources: National statistical agencies, SEB Economic Research* Harmonised consumer price index