Robonomics: principles, benefits, challenges, solutions

Robonomics: principles,

benefits, challenges and

solutions

Stanislav Ivanov

Email: [email protected]

Web: http://stanislavivanov.com

mailto:[email protected]

http://stanislavivanov.com/

stanislavivanov.com

Dr. Stanislav Ivanov

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• Professor and Vice Rector (Research), Varna University of Management, Bulgaria (http://www.vum.bg)

• Editor-in-chief of the European Journal of Tourism Research (http://ejtr.vumk.eu)

• CEO of Zangador Ltd. (http://www.zangador.eu)

http://www.vum.bg/

http://ejtr.vumk.eu/

http://www.zangador.eu/

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Robots have arrived …

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Source: http://vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/starwars/images/c/c8/Counterparts.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BB-8

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Source: http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/avp/images/4/49/Terminator.jpg

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Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/images/robot-thinking-one.png

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Application of robots, AI and

automation technologies:• Manufacturing

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http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/sites/default/files/field/image/Industrial-Robots-Hyundai-Heavy.jpg

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automation technologies:• Warehousing, supply and logistics

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http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/industrial-robots/german-warehouse-robots-tackle-picking-tasks

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automation technologies:• Agriculture

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http://sparc-robotics.eu/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/polni-robot-amazone-bonirob-44e031.jpg

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automation technologies:• Transportation / Self-driving cars

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http://www.google.com/selfdrivingcar/images/home-where.jpg

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automation technologies:• Medicine

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http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/robotics/images/2/21/Medical_robot.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20140602041221

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automation technologies:• Warfare

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http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/military-robots/why-should-we-ban-autonomous-weapons-to-survive

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automation technologies:• Legal services

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http://www.kurzweilai.net/will-ai-replace-judges-and-lawyers

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automation technologies• Hotels

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http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/futuristic-hotel-thats-like-robotic-6449905

http://www.h-n-h.jp/en/concept/

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automation technologies• Restaurants

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Photo credit: Katerina Berezina

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automation technologies• Meetings and events

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https://www.bizbash.com/mobile-telepresence-new-systems-allow-users-participate-meetings-events-afar/gallery/123291

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automation technologies• Theme and amusement parks

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Photo credit: Stanislav Ivanov

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automation technologies• Airports and other transport stations

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Photo credit: Nicolaus Korab

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automation technologies• Travel agencies and Tourist information centres

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automation technologies• Museums and art galleries

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/14/arts/design/museums-experiment-with-robots-as-guides.html?_r=0

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automation technologies:• Households

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http://www.roboticstrends.com/images/photos/xiaomi-mi-robot-vacuum.jpg

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automation technologies:• Search engines

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automation technologies:• Social media chatbots

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http://chatbotsmagazine.com

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automation technologies:• Finance

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http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/581cd80d46e27a2e008b4cf3-1920/fintech-ecosystem-diagram.png

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automation technologies:• E-commerce

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automation technologies:• Sex services

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https://www.minds.com/blog/view/638819052533329937

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The tendency to use RAIA in the production of goods and services will accelerate in the

future until society reaches a point when all (or an overwhelming share of) goods and

services are produced by RAIA with limited human involvement. Such an economic

system, based on robots, artificial intelligence and (service) automation, is

called ‘robonomics’

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Robonomics is an economic system that uses robots, artificial intelligence and

(service) automation technologies as production factors, instead of human

labour.

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Why robots?

• Robots could work 24/7

• Robots could implement various tasks and expand their scope with software and hardware upgrades

• Robots could provide constant or improving quality of their work

• Robots could fulfil their work correctly and in a timely manner

• Robots could do routine work repeatedly

• Robots do not complain, get ill, go on strikes, spread rumors, discriminate, quit their job without notice, show negative emotions, shirk from work

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Why not robots?

• Robots lack creativity

• Robots will not be any time soon completely independent of human supervision

• Robots lack personal approach

• Robots can orientate in structured situations (at least for the moment)

• Robots may (will) be perceived as threat by human employees (e.g. Neo-Luddism movement)

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Principles of Robonomics (1)

• All or most of the products (goods and services) are produced / provided by robots / artificial intelligence

• High level of automation

• Fewer but more knowledge-intensive jobs

• Disconnection between employment and incomes -employment is not the major source of incomes

• Active use of variety of single- and multi-purpose industrial, service and social robots

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• High cost-efficiency of production – economically efficient on-demand single/few unit(s) production of some goods

• Small and dispersed factories, close to consumers

• High level of standardisation of services – strict algorithmisation of service provision

• Labour and capital abundance are not competitive advantages, but knowledge and creativity

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• Gradual spread of automation / robotisation in time, industries and countries

• Spill-over effects of automation / robotisation from developed to developing economies

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Benefits of Robonomics

Improved quality of life in the long term due to:

• People will be liberated of hard manual labour

• Drastic increase of leisure time

• Time for creative and pleasure activities

• Less (no) work-related stress

• Improved health, increased life expectancy

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Challenges of Robonomics

Short- and mid-term challenges due to:

• Unemployment and relative overpopulation –fewer human employees and lower salaries:

Frey & Osborne (2013) assess the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations in the USA and conclude that 47% of total jobs in the country are risk of being substituted by AI.

DeCanio (2016) measures the elasticity of substitution of human labour with robots in the USA and concludes that it would lead to significant drop in wages.

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Challenges of Robonomics

• Possible functional illiteracy – humans may forget how to do things once robots do them

• Division of society between employed and unemployed

• Changes in social values – is human life valuable? Do we need other people to satisfy our needs when we have robots?

• Social unrest and political instability – due to substitution of human employees with robots

• Migration

• Wars

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Proposed solutions to the challenges

of RobonomicsPrior literature has elaborated on some solutions to technological unemployment like mandating employment, government job creation, work sharing, employment impact statements, tax policies and financial incentives for job creation, etc. (e.g. Stevens & Marchant, 2017). These solutions assume that given the right stimuli the economy will create enough jobs to keep full employment. However, they may work on the road torobonomics as tools to mitigate the impacts of technological unemployment, but not during robonomics when society reaches full robotisation of economy and people do not need to work.

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of Robonomics• Constant and fluid free life-long education

• Entertainment, tourism, leisure activities, volunteering

• Universal basic income

• Robot-based taxation

• Birth control / birth right patent

• Redefinition of human rights

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of Robonomics

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of Robonomics

Situation Biological right (reproduction)

Political right (voting)

Economic right(basic income)

Outcome

1 Yes Yes Yes Country default

2 Yes Yes No Mass poverty

3 Yes No Yes Country default

4 Yes No No Mass poverty

5 No Yes Yes Demographic crisis

6 No Yes No Demographic crisis

7 No No Yes Demographic crisis

8 No No No Demographic crisis

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of Robonomics

Only a combination between options [2] and [7] provides a stable solution

People self-select whether they want the cozy life without work, but subject to sterilization and without the right to vote, OR they will not receive any guaranteed income but will have the right to vote and reproduce

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Situation Biological right (reproduction)

Political right (voting)

Economic right(basic income)

Outcome

2 Yes Yes No Mass poverty

7 No No Yes Demographic crisis


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of Robonomics

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Forthcoming in 2019 by Emerald:

Robots, Artificial Intelligence and Service Automation in

Travel, Tourism and Hospitality

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Forthcoming in 2019 by Channel View Publications:

Future Tourism in Robot-based Economy

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Manuscript references (1/5)

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THANK YOU FOR THE ATTENTION!

QUESTIONS?

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Robonomics: principles, benefits, challenges, solutions