- 1. Sandy Warrick, CFARisk and Return for Private Investors
2. What do Private Clients Care About?
3. Private Investors have Needs
- Needs are what they must accomplish with their investments if
their investments perform poorly.
- Investors should be able to achieve their goals with 95% to 99%
probability.
- Many investors portfoliosfell so muchfrom late 2007 to early
2009 that their needs might not be met!
- Some needs can become goals when things dont go well!
4. Private Investors have Goals
- Goals are what a family wants to accomplish if their
investments perform as well as they expect.
- Investors should be able to achieve their goals with 50% to 70%
probability.
5. Private Investors have Aspirations
- Aspirations are what they hope to accomplish with their
investments if their investments performvery well .
- Human capital (work) or entrepreneurial achievement (luck) is
generally how aspirations are achieved.
- Investors probably hope to achieve their aspirations with
10%-20% probability or less.
6. How Do Planners Design Portfolios for Clients?
- They might use buckets for needs, goals & aspirations:
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- Needs: CDs, investment grade bonds and annuities can be matched
to client needs.
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- Goals: A stock portfolio whose return will probably be enough
to accomplish the goals.
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- Employer stock options or starting your own company are usually
the only way to achieve aspirations.
7. Is There a Better Way than Buckets?
- I think there is: Liability Driven Investment
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- Your liabilities are your needs!
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- This is like what pension plans do:
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- They design their portfolios to match the payments they will
need to make to retirees.
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- Pensions have the advantage of having a very large risk pool
private investors dont.
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- How do we match your portfolio to your needs?
8. Warning: There is Math!
- I apologize, but there is no way around it:
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- We must do some math in order to help design suitable and
optimal portfolios.
- This math was developed by Jarrod Wilcox, CFA who has a Ph.D.
in finance from MIT.
- One of his many insights:
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- The key relation is the leverage ratio.
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- What is the leverage ratio?
9. Here is the Math: L :leverage. : the annualized volatility S
: skewness of returnsK : kurtosis of returns 10. Leverage = Assets
/ (Assets Liabilities) 11. What is ?
- We useto represent the portfolios risk.
- Investment professionals generally usevolatilityas the primary
measure of risk.
- A high risk portfolio decreases the probability ofbeing able to
meet basic needs.
- A high risk portfolio increases the amount of basic needs that
cant be met.
- A portfolios past risk is a reasonable estimate of future
risk.
12. What is Skew?
- Skew is what happens when very low probability events are
actually more probable than the bell-curve predicts.
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- Think of a lottery ticket. If you win, the payoff is very large
and the probability, no matter how low, is higher than the
bell-curve.
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- Financial markets usually have negative skew: large movements
are usually negative.
13. What is Kurtosis?
- Excess Kurtosis is what happens when large events, both
positive and negative, are more common than the bell-curve.
- The bell-curve (also known as the Gaussian or Normal
distribution) has a kurtosis of 3.
- Historic returns have kurtosis of between 4 and 6.
14. Market Risk Premium: Consumption Models Economists have
attempted to estimate what the market risk premiumshould
beusingconsumption basedmodels. Their conclusion is that the
historic risk premium is higher than it should be, Thats a puzzle
The 2007-2008 might have solved the puzzle risk is higher and
returns are lower when we include these years! 15. Equity Risk
Premium: Consumption Models Economists sometimes call this the
equity risk premium and its the same thing. Regardless of what you
call it, its still a puzzle 16. The Relation between Return and
Risk Another name for the equity risk premium is the market price
of risk. 17. Historic Excess Returns vs. Risk Cash, Bond, Stock
1970 to 2009 18. Risk and Return
- The previous slide shows that for a historic portfolio holding
stocks, bonds and cash, return increased with risk.
- The developers of the Capital Asset Pricing Model was awarded
the Nobel Prize in Economics.
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- If you can borrow at the risk-free rate (you cant, but some
people can), then the relation between risk and return is a
straight line.
19. A Bit More Math: Excess Return: Return higher than the risk
free rate. Slope: Increased in return for an increase in risk L
:leverage. : the annualized volatility S : skewness of returns.K :
kurtosis of returns 20. Capital Market Assumptions
21. Aggressive Investor: Leverage = 1
- If your leverage is equal to 1, then you dont have any
financial needs and all your wealth is discretionary.
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- By any definition you are a rich person.
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- Freedoms just another word for nothing left to lose?
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- Our system would classify you as aggressive.
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- An aggressive investor would have a very high risk tolerance
and is willing to take on considerable risk in search of extra
return.
22. Moderate Investor: Leverage = 2
- If your leverage is equal to 2, then your financial needs
(liabilities) and your discretionary wealth are equal!
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- You plan to spend half your principal and income from your
savings and leave the same amount in your estate.
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- Our system would classify you as moderate.
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- Moderate investors are typical HNW prospects and are usually
the best clients for an asset manager concentrating on this
market.
23. Conservative Investor: Leverage = 3
- If your leverage is equal to 3, then your financial needs
(liabilities) is twice your discretionary wealth!
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- You plan to spend all of your dividends and income and2/3 rdof
the principal, leaving 1/3 rdin your estate.
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- Our system would classify you as conservative.
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- There are HNW prospects and clients that are conservative, but
generally this characteristic better fits the mass affluent. These
are bad HNW clients because they want good results but they get
upset in down markets.
24. Risk Adjusted Return vs. Risk 25. How Do We Classify
Investors?
- One way to do this is to figure out how much the investors
family will need over the rest of their life.
- This is very hard to do even if we knew how long and how
healthy they would be.
- Its even harder since lifespan and health cant be predicted
with any accuracy.
- Even more important: different families with the same
liabilities have different comfort with risk.
26. We Can Use an Expert System with a Questionnaire
- In this questionnaire, asset classes are ranked for suitability
for every response to every question in the questionnaire.
- These question measure both yourabilityand yourwillingnessto
assume risk.
- In this exercise, we assume that yourabilityis more thattwiceas
important as yourwillingness .
27. Suitability 28. Model Portfolio Conservative Moderate
Aggressive Cash 15.9% 1.2% 0.2% Bonds 58.1% 42.0% 8.3% Stock 25.4%
56.4% 84.1% Alternatives 0.7% 0.4% 7.4% Risk: 5.7% 9.7% 14.0%
Return: 5.4% 6.2% 7.0% 29. Asset Allocation vs. Risk Tolerance 30.
Risk vs. Return for Model Portfolios