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ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC BUILDING NEW HEARTLANDS FOURTH QUARTER & FULL YEAR 2008 RESULTS 29 TH JANUARY 2009

Q4 2008 Presentations

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Page 1: Q4 2008 Presentations

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLCBUILDING NEW HEARTLANDS

FOURTH QUARTER& FULL YEAR 2008 RESULTS

29TH JANUARY 2009

Page 2: Q4 2008 Presentations

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLCFOURTH QUARTER& FULL YEAR 2008 RESULTS

JEROEN VAN DER VEER

CHIEF EXECUTIVE

Page 3: Q4 2008 Presentations

2

DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE

Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves and SEC proven mining reserves.

Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves or SEC proven mining reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.

Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves and SEC proven mining reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-end pricing impact.

Identified Items: This presentation refers to Identified Items which have been excluded from CCS earnings and EPS calculations. Please see page 4 of the Quarterly Results Announcement for a listing of those items.

In this presentation, excluding in the financial statements, we have aggregated our equity position in projects for both direct and indirect interest (for example, we have aggregated our indirect interest in North West Shelf LNG via our 34% shareholding in Woodside Energy Ltd).

This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. Also included as a forward looking statement is our disclosure of reserves, proved oil and gas reserves, proven mining reserves, organic reserves, net reserves and resources. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for the Group’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserve estimates; (f) loss of market and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory effects arising from recategorisation of reserves; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2007 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of January 29, 2009. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We may use certain terms in this announcement that the SEC's guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. US Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 001-32575 and disclosure in our Forms 6-K, File No 001-32575, available on the SEC’s website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain these forms from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.

Page 4: Q4 2008 Presentations

3

2008 HIGHLIGHTS

2008 PERFORMANCE SATISFACTORY

• 2008 CCS EARNINGS $ 31.4 BLN, CCS EPS +16%• CAPITAL DISCIPLINE: $ 32 BLN NET CAPEX, $13 BLN RETURNED TO SHAREHOLDERS• GOOD OPERATING PERFORMANCE

2008 PORTFOLIO PROGRESS

• NEW PROJECT START UPS• $ 7 BLN DISPOSALS, $ 9 BLN ACQUISITIONS• NEW UPSTREAM RESOURCES; REBALANCING DOWNSTREAM

PRUDENT APPROACH TO ECONOMIC DOWNTURN

• MAINTAINING STRATEGY TO BUILD NEW HEARTLANDS• MANAGING COSTS AND AFFORDABILITY• 2009 NET CAPEX $31- 32 BLN; Q1 2009 DIVIDEND $0.42/SHARE (+5%)

Page 5: Q4 2008 Presentations

4

0

40

80

120

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

4

8

12

100

150

200

250

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Afam Gbaran Ubie

Gjoa

Bonga NW

Angel

• MANAGING COST & PRICE CYCLES

• PROJECTS BASED ON LONG-RUN PRICE SCENARIOS

• MAJOR COSTS LOCKED IN AT FID

• FEWER PROJECTS LAUNCHED ACROSS CYCLE PEAK

• MANAGING AFFORDABILITY

• CONTINUED FOCUS ON COMPETITIVE COSTS

• POSTPONING DISCRETIONARY INVESTMENT

• MAINTAINING BALANCE SHEET FLEXIBILITY

RESPONDING TO THE CHANGING LANDSCAPE

OIL PRICE & INDUSTRY REFINING MARGIN

UPSTREAM COST INFLATION

Sakhalin

Ormen Lange

Kashagan

Changbei

Ursa

QG4

Pearl

Perdido

BC-10

AOSP Exp 1

Gumusut

Shell Key Project FID

Corrib

Salym

North Rankin 2

Pluto

IHS-CERA Upstream Capital Cost Index (2000=100)

Oil Price $$ Refining Margin

Page 6: Q4 2008 Presentations

5 OIL & GAS REFINING & CHEMICALS INTEGRATED UPSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM

PORT ARTHUR

N AMERICA TIGHT GAS

AOSP

GUMUSUT

KASHAGAN

SINGAPORE CHEMICALS

QATARGAS 4

SAKHALIN II

BC-10

NIGERIA OMAN

PEARL GTL PERDIDO

CORRIB

GJOA

HALFDAN PHASE IV

NWS T5 / ANGEL

URSA/PRINCESSWATERFLOOD

AFAM

PLUTO

NORTH RANKIN B

2008 ON STREAM UNDER CONSTRUCTION

KEY PROJECTS2008 PROGRESS

Page 7: Q4 2008 Presentations

6

SAKHALIN II START UP

0

200

400

OIL GAS

2008 2009 2010

KBO

E/D

LNG TRAIN 1COMPLETE

LNG TRAIN 2COMPLETE

YEAR-ROUND OIL

GAS ARRIVEDAT LNG PLANT

1ST LNG CARGO

EXPECTED RAMP-UP PROFILE

START YEAR ROUNDOIL EXPORT

PIPELINE ROUTE REINSTATEMENT: VAVARKA VALLEY

LNG SITEPA-B PLATFORM

SALES VOLUMES:

Page 8: Q4 2008 Presentations

7

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 20080

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

RETURNS TO SHAREHOLDERS

PAY OUT TRACK RECORD (CUMULATIVE) DIVIDEND PERFORMANCE

DIVIDEND BUYBACK

$ BILLION

SHELL DIVIDEND GROWTH*

INFLATION US

INFLATION UK

INFLATION NL

* RD € DIVIDEND PRE UNIFICATION, RDS € UNTIL 2007, RDS US$ FROM 2007

Page 9: Q4 2008 Presentations

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLCFOURTH QUARTER& FULL YEAR 2008 RESULTS

PETER VOSER

CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

Page 10: Q4 2008 Presentations

9

40

60

80

100

120

140

Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408

4

6

8

10

12

14

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408

PRICES AND MARGINS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408

$/T

INDUSTRY CHEMICALS MARGINS*

$/BBL

INDUSTRY REFINING MARGINS

$/BBL

OIL & GAS PRICES

US WEST COAST

US GULF COAST

ROTTERDAM

SINGAPORE WESTERN EUROPE NAPHTHA

US ETHANEBRENT

WTI

NORTH EAST ASIA NAPHTHA

JCC*

HENRY HUB ($/MMBtu)

$/MMBtu

* Q4 2008 indicative: based on available prices/margins at the end of the quarter.

Page 11: Q4 2008 Presentations

10

Q4 2008 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

0.36 0.40DIVIDEND PER SHARE ($)

6.36.8NET CAPITAL SPENDING

2.3 2.4DIVIDENDS

0.920.64EARNINGS PER SHARE ($)

5.7 3.9 NET EARNINGS

Q4 07Q4 08

4.2 2.4 - EXPL. & PRODUCTION

1.5 0.3SHARE BUY BACKS

5.3 10.3 CASH FROM OPERATIONS

5.9 4.2 BUSINESS SEGMENTS TOTAL

- CHEMICALS

- OIL PRODUCTS

- OIL SANDS

- GAS & POWER

0.0 0.0

0.6 1.0

0.0

0.8

Q4 08

0.4

0.7

Q4 07

$ BLN

Q4 2008 VERSUS Q4 2007 ($ BLN)

Earnings CCS basis, Earnings and EPS excl. Identified Items

EARNINGS ($ BLN)

Q407

UPSTREAM

DOWNSTREAM

CORP. & MIN

Q408

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Page 12: Q4 2008 Presentations

11

0

1

2

3

4

Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q4080

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408

UPSTREAM PERFORMANCE

EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION

GAS & POWER

OIL SANDS

OIL & GAS PRODUCTIONEARNINGS

$ BILLION MLN TONNESMLN BOE/D

OIL

GAS

LNG SALES (MLN TONNES)

Excluding Identified Items

Page 13: Q4 2008 Presentations

12

80

85

90

95

100

Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q4083

4

5

6

7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408

DOWNSTREAM PERFORMANCE

CHEMICALS

AVAILABILITY AND SALES VOLUMESCCS EARNINGS

$ BILLION VOLUME% AVAILABILITY

REFINERY AVAILABILITY

CHEMICALS AVAILABILITY

OIL PRODUCT SALES (MLN BBLS/D)

CHEMICALS SALES (MLN TONNES)

Excluding Identified Items

OIL PRODUCTS

Page 14: Q4 2008 Presentations

13DOWNSTREAM

DISPOSALS UPDATE2008

UPSTREAM

COMPLETEDANNOUNCED

CUMULATIVE DIVESTMENT PROCEEDS 2008 DISPOSALS

UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM OTHER

$ BILLION

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

RAINBOW PIPELINE

NWS OIL ASSETS

FRENCH REFINERIES

NIGERIA OFFSHORE BLOCKS

BOOMVANG

EUROPE UPSTREAM

BEB

BIG FOOT

AFRICA DOWNSTREAM

NOGAT PIPELINE

DOMINICAN REFINERY

TRANSREDES

Page 15: Q4 2008 Presentations

14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

CASH PERFORMANCE 12M

GROUPBUSINESS

UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM

UPSTREAM

DOWNSTREAM PAYOUT

ORGANIC CAPITAL SPENDING

ACQUISITIONS

SOURCES

USES

SOURCES

USES

SOURCES USES

ASSET SALES

$ BILLION $ BILLION

EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION

GAS & POWEROIL SANDS

OIL PRODUCTS

CHEMICALS

ORGANIC CAPITAL SPENDING

ASSET SALES

ACQUISITIONS

WORKING CAPITAL

WORKING CAPITAL

Page 16: Q4 2008 Presentations

15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2004 2005 2006 2007 20080%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

35-36

(5)

10

30-31

2008 TARGET

24

(10)

8

26

2007

(7)(2)DISPOSALS

21

3

20

2006

9ACQUISITIONS

~31-3232NET CAPEX

31-3230ORGANIC

2009 E2008

ACTUAL

INVESTMENT AND CHOICES

CAPITAL SPENDING ($ BLN)

ROACE

RETURN ON CAPITAL IN SERVICE

UPSTREAM CAPITAL UNDER CONSTRUCTION ($ BLN)

DOWNSTREAM CAPITAL UNDER CONSTRUCTION ($ BLN)

$ BLN RETURN %

CAPITAL UNDER CONSTRUCTION / ROACE

• STABILISING ORGANIC SPENDING LEVELS

• FINANCIAL FLEXIBILITY TO DELIVER POST-FID PROJECTS

• PROGRESSIVE RE-GEARING OF BALANCE SHEET

Page 17: Q4 2008 Presentations

16

2008 HIGHLIGHTS

2008 PERFORMANCE SATISFACTORY

• 2008 CCS EARNINGS $ 31.4 BLN, CCS EPS +16%• CAPITAL DISCIPLINE: $ 32 BLN NET CAPEX, $13 BLN RETURNED TO SHAREHOLDERS• GOOD OPERATING PERFORMANCE

2008 PORTFOLIO PROGRESS

• NEW PROJECT START UPS• $ 7 BLN DISPOSALS, $ 9 BLN ACQUISITIONS• NEW UPSTREAM RESOURCES; REBALANCING DOWNSTREAM

PRUDENT APPROACH TO ECONOMIC DOWNTURN

• MAINTAINING STRATEGY TO BUILD NEW HEARTLANDS• MANAGING COSTS AND AFFORDABILITY• 2009 NET CAPEX $31- 32 BLN; Q1 2009 DIVIDEND $0.42/SHARE (+5%)

Page 18: Q4 2008 Presentations

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLCBUILDING NEW HEARTLANDS

FOURTH QUARTER& FULL YEAR 2008 RESULTS

Q&A

Page 19: Q4 2008 Presentations

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLCBUILDING NEW HEARTLANDS

FOURTH QUARTER& FULL YEAR 2008 RESULTS

29TH JANUARY 2009

Page 20: Q4 2008 Presentations

19

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135300465

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START UP

APPENDIX: KEY PROJECTS

PSC volumes shown on a gross basis

NIGERIANIGERIACANADAITALYITALY

NIGERIA LNG T7OLOKOLA LNGPEACE RIVER / CARMON CREEKTEMPA ROSSAVAL D’AGRI

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CHOICES

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