View
61
Download
2
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Tony Makin
Director, APEC Study Centre, Griffith University, Australia
Prospects for the Asian Economy
Main Themes
Underlying Reasons for Asia’s Success
Near Term Prospects
International Factors
Longer Term Prospects
Asia’s Growth in Historical Perspective
according to economic historian Angus Maddison per capita income in the world rose 13-fold between 1000-2000
this compares to no increase in per capita income in the 1st millennium!
in 2nd millennium, most world growth occurred after 1820 the start of the industrial revolution
over just the past ½ century, Asia’s growth been the strongest the world has ever seen
Globalisation and Asia’s Rise
the world economy first experienced large scale globalisation during la belle époque from 1870s to 1914
improved transport and communications eg telegraph, railways, steamships) spurred international trade and capital flows
unlike the first globalisation era there now exists a well-established supranational institutional framework fostering international exchange
6
Globalisation and Asia’s Rise Distinct phases in development of modern
Asia:
Japan - 1960sAsian tigers - Singapore, Hong Kong,
Taiwan, South Korea - 1970s – 1980sChina, India, Indonesia - 1990sAsia’s phenomenal growth has occurred
during the second great globalisation phase - from 1990 onwards
- so international factors have played a key role
Economic Growth in Open Economies
it can be shown that: sources of growth = domestic + foreign
- trade liberalization and capital account liberalization further increase economic openness
can extend growth theory to examine how openness influences growth
Since 1990 emerging Asian economies have become more globalised
Domestic-international linkages
Rest of the World
Goods and Services Markets Asset Markets
Globalisation and Asia’s Rise
Key Developments in Asia since 1990
large expansion of trade and investment flows
exchange rate management and global imbalances
two major economic crises
– Asian Financial Crisis 1997-8
- Transatlantic Financial Crisis aka GFC 2008-9
The CIRIs?
Jim O'Neill, Goldman Sachs economist, proposed in 2001 that Brazil, Russia, India and China the BRICs could become among the four most dominant economies in the world by 2050
predicted a big rise in the size of the middle class in these nations
If we include Indonesia instead of Brazil
BRICs – B + I = CIRIs
CIRIs: Key Macroeconomic Facts
account for roughly 40% of the world's population and over 30% of the world's gross domestic product
the most important engines of the world economy in recent years
13
Near Term Growth Prospects
Asia to continue leading global growth but at a slower rate
Exports have slowed and domestic demand likely to play a more important role in the future
Slower growth in China likely to be offset by further strengthening of India’s growth
Structural reforms needed to lift productivity across the region
Reasons for High Growth: Micro
privatisation and reform of state-owned enterprises
enhanced labour mobility and better
educated workforce
emergence of entrepreneurial class
inflation kept under control
generally benefited from increased international trade and foreign direct investment
heavy spending on productive infrastructure
Reasons for High Growth: Macro
Infrastructure
over half world’s infrastructure now in emerging Asia
estimated to continue spending around 6% of combined GDP on roads, railways, electricity and telecommunications
this is twice the infrastructure ratio of developed nations
Growth and International Trade
numerous econometric studies have focused on the relationship between exports and growth
these studies show that high trade to GDP ratios tend to be associated with high economic growthhence openness matters!
Growth and International Trade
enhanced international trade also implies:
increased foreign demand for domestically produced goods and services → more exports and hence more overall production
increased imports raise competition for manufacturing sector
higher productivity higher growth
Exports as % of GDP- CIRIs
China India Russia Indonesia0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
16.1
7.1
18.2
25.3
29.6
21.5
30.0
24.6
1990 2010
Imports as % of GDP- CIRIs
China India Russian Federation Indonesia0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
13.1
8.5
17.9
23.725.7 24.8
21.722.9
1990 2010
Foreign Capital’s Contribution to Growth
Standard growth accounting (Solow 1957) implies focus on key factor inputs to economy-wide production to identify the contributions made by factor inputs – capital , labour, technology
in open economies, yet another distinction is that between domestically funded and foreign funded capital
Foreign Capital’s Contribution to Growth
open economy macroeconomic production function of the form
where y is net output per worker, φ represents TFP, k(t) is domestically funded capital per worker and k*(t) is foreign funded capital per worker
Foreign Direct Investment (% of GDP) CIRIs1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
China IndiaRussian Federation Indonesia
Lessons from China
China has outperformed other Asian emerging economies with its GDP exceeding the combined total of the other CIRIs
Now the world’s second largest economy, the world’s biggest manufacturer, and its biggest exporter
Foreign investment and exports crucial to China’s development strategy, but now rebalancing demand to consumption
27
Longer Term Growth Prospects
great scope exists for further increasing international trade and investment as means of lifting the performance of emerging Asia
The World Bank expects China’s phenomenal growth to slow to less miraculous rates from here on, gradually tapering down to around five per cent by 2030
remains to be seen whether other emerging Asian economies, especially India, Indonesia, Vietnam and other ASEAN can accelerate as China’s growth normalises
Looking Ahead
Rise of Asia-Pacific region unforeseen in 1990s, so not easy to say:
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.
(Nils Bohr)