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Portland In Transition
The metro region is changing, but is far from over; there is no “Next Portland”
September 2017
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis2
Wait, What Happened?
Willamette Week, August 2015
Thrillist, November 2015
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis3
• Fast-growing West Coast metro with good economy and high quality of life. Suffers from poor housing affordability.
• Excels at apparel and design, food and beverage, and semiconductors. More broadly, strengths include renewable energy, wood products, and UAVs.
• Also world-class at bringing in young, skilled households. Pretty unique. Ability to attract talent like better-educated, higher-paying metros that have a major research university.
• Diverse industrial structure and strong pipeline of talent suggest good growth moving forward. Nobody really expects these to change. Huge problem if it does. Housing supply and affordability is a big risk.
• Portland is also undergoing transformational changes. Apartment boom in urban core, but changes run deeper. Outperforming old peers, but not yet caught the nation’s upper economic tier.
• One result is some search for the “Next Portland.” However each contender fails to measure up in at least one important way.
What is Portland?
Portland in Transition
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis5
Portland’s ranking among the nation’s 100 largest metros
Transformational Change
2007 2016 2007-16 Change
High-Wage Jobs 222,50032nd Highest Share
301,10015th Highest Share
+35%5th Fastest
Educational Attainment (Share of 25-64 with a College Degree)
34.1%27th Highest
40.2%16th Highest
+6.1 ppt5th Largest
Median Household Income (Inflation-Adjusted, 2016$)
$63,20032nd Highest
$68,70019th Highest
+8.7%4th Largest
Source: BEA, BLS, Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis6
High-Wage Jobs, Pt 1
High-wage jobs have led the Portland economic expansion both in growth rates and in the absolute number of jobs added.
For more on Job Polarization, see our office’s report: Job Polarization in Oregon
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis7
High-Wage Jobs, Pt 2
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis8
Huge Educational Attainment Gains
Portland’s 6 percentage point increase in educational attainment is more than twice the gains in the typical metro.
Portland now ranks 16th highest for the share of 25-64 year olds with a college degree.
Denver ranks 10th
highest at 43.3%, significantly higher than Portland’s 40.1%. Seattle ranks 11th highest at 43.2%
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis9
Educational Attainment Gains Throughout the Region
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis10
Migration by Degree Type
• Previous Office of Economic Analysis work shows Portland’s ability to attract young college graduates
• Historically, Portland has had more arts and humanities degrees. In recent years migration has shifted toward technical, scientific, and medical degrees.
• For more see our office’s Stem+ Trends in Oregon report (2016)
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis11
Economic Gains Translate into Falling Poverty Rates…
Regional poverty now lower than before the Great Recession.
Huge racial gaps persist.
Improvements seen for whites and communities of color alike.
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis12
…and Rising Household Incomes
Portland incomes are nearly 9% higher today than before the Great Recession. The typical large metro has yet to recover.
Portland has jumped from 32nd highest to 19th highest among the 100 largest metros.
Portland has pulled away from many of its former peers. It has caught and surpassed large metros like Atlanta, Chicago, and Los Angeles.
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis13
Drivers of Income
Gains in recent years largely about a stronger economy.
More people are working. Even more people are working full-time. Earnings for workers are up as well.
Growth in 2016 was driven the most by a big shift into full-time employment.
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis14
Regional Income Changes
Portland has significantly more higher-income households today than last decade.
These increase are not due to migration. Migrants have lower incomes than current residents.
These gains are largely due to improving economy, which is also pulling more households out of the bottom tier. No evidence of lower-income households moving away from region, even if pushed toward fringes.
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis15
Portland Pulling Away from Peers, Not Caught Aspirational Metros
For more see ECONorthwest’s Value of Jobs reports and economic checkups:https://portlandalliance.com/advocacy/economic-reports.html
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis16
Transformational Change
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis17
Other Places with Transformational Changes
Recessions can reorient or restructure a regional economy. Growth paths are altered. Some industries fall back, others step forward.
Portland is not the only metro to undergo transformational changes in the past decade, even as Portland’s changes are among the largest.
There is no “Next Portland”
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis19
Contenders’ High-Wage Jobs
Only Salt Lake City sees similar high-wage gains. But all others, except Boise, see solid growth.
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis20
Contenders’ Population Growth
No contender sees both strong population growth and strong net migration among college-age and root-setting populations.
In recent years, Asheville has seen migration but overall has a small such population.
Salt Lake City more about internal dynamics than migration.
Boise attracts young families, not 20-somethings
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis21
Contenders’ Educational Attainment
Portland, ME and Pittsburgh have similar educational attainment.
Boise and Salt Lake City have average or below average levels for a large metro.
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis22
Contenders’ Arts Jobs
Only Missoula noses out PDX with the highest share of jobs in Arts, Design, and Entertainment occupations.
All other contenders are behind the real Portland.
Asheville is half the share as the real Portland.
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis23
Contenders’ Demographics
This is a huge advantage
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis24
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis25
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis26
Portland Isn’t OverEconomic and population growth rates are slowing today as the business cycle matures.
Region is far from over. Retains high quality of life and strong regional economy. Need to work to maintain.
Long-run advantage of net migration among young, skilled households is key.
Affordability and adequate housing supply biggest threat
Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis27
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