Ontario Tax and Spend Analysis

By: Paul Young, CGA

Revenues by Source

Government Transfers

Government Expenses

Government Expenses by Sector

Base line Expenses

PC Revenue Proposal

Liberals Revenue Proposal

NDP Revenue Proposal

PC Deficit Action Plan

Liberal Deficit Action Plan

NDP GAP Action Plan

Summary

• Progressive Conservatives– PC goal is to increase the conditions that will support new jobs (100K/year)– PC will reduce Corporate tax rates in year one with hopes that it will stimulate

investment– PC’s transit strategy will result in $2B via interest income as well as $2M via

government savings

• NDP– Elimination of the Tax loop holes $1.3B– Upping Corporate Tax Rates. I am assuming 2% increase– NDP has said little on transit funding– Tax Credits of $250M for new hires– NDP has said nothing on compensation restraint as such it will be difficult for

them to hold expenses to 1%.– NDP have said nothing on up selling Crown Corporation opportunities to

maximized profit

Summary

• Liberals– New Pension Plan, which means new payroll tax. The assumption was 3% on

average salary of 40K– New Gas Tax, Corporate Taxes, etc to fund Transit. The annual new revenue

would be $4B– Liberals are trying to hold the line on expense growth to 1%. There will be

difficulties holding the line as part of the five-year run due to pressures by unions to removed the wage freezes

– The equalization payment is being reduced. The analysis assumes the equalization payment will be eliminated as part of a revenue source due to a stronger economy in Canada

Assumptions

– The is presentation is design so people can asked questions to our elected people on why they think their plan will work

– I assume the plan would kick in year one as way to get people asking how transit and/or other priorities until 2017-2018. 2017-2018 was used as that is the date the current government has said the deficit will be eliminated.