TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

1. Market Summary (as of Mar 19 , 2015)

NEPSE at close last week (Mar 19, 2015) 967.62

NEPSE high last week (Mar 15, 3015) 970.68

Weekly Change -10.82 (or -1.10%)

Daily Volume (Avg.) NPR 17.05 crores

Total Traded Amount (weekly) NPR 85.24 crores

Immediate Resistance 972.17

Immediate Support 938.41

RSI 46.28

MACD Line -0.33

Signal Line 2.94

2. Market Trend

Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 19, 2015)

3. RSI

RSI is a form of leading indicator that is believed to be most effective during periods of sideways

movement. Such indicators may create numerous buy and sell signals that are useful when the market

is not clearly trending upwards or downwards.

The RSI descended most of last week, and still maintaining within the neutral zone. However, by the

end of the week the RSI level picked up again, reaching closer to the level at the beginning of the

week. RSI, at the beginning of the week, was 46.43 levels. By the close of the week, the level stands at

46.28.

RSI (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 19, 2015)

4. MACD

The MACD is a momentum oscillator formed by using two different types of moving averages, which

provides specific buying or selling signals. When a MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is

considered to be a positive sign and indicates a time to buy, and vice-versa.

The MACD line was below the Signal line throughout last week as well, and it continued the

downward momentum by the end of the week. MACD at the end of last week crossed the 0-line

reaching -0.33. This is the first time, this year, MACD line reached a negative territory. This is a

bearish indicator and triggers a sell signal.

MACD (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 19, 2015)

5. Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Band is a technical indicator that consists of a moving average (21-day) along with two

trading bands above (upper band) and below it (lower band). The bands are an indication of volatility,

which are represented by calculating standard deviation.

The NEPSE index went down throughout last week and crossed the lower-band. However, by the end

of the week, it moved back up, reaching closer towards the mid-band. The upper and the lower bands

still continue to converge indicating a decreasing volatility in the market.

Bollinger Bands (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 19, 2015)

Overview:

NEPSE ended on a positive note last week as it closed higher by 3.38 points (or 0.35%) to end at

967.62 points. Although Nepse decreased throughout the week, it made moderate improvement at the

last day of trading; closing higher than the week’s average of 965.03. The average daily market

volume decreased last week to NPR 17.05 crores from NPR 26.42 crores the week prior. The 50-day

moving average is still increasing at a higher rate above the 200-day moving average suggesting that

the overall view of the market remains positive. The RSI decreased throughout the week. However, it

picked up its level at the last day of trading to end at 46.28 levels, and it still maintained within the

neutral zone. The MACD line is moving close with the signal line and it has reached the negative

territory, indicating a sell signal. The Bollinger Bands still indicate a decline in the market volatility as

Nepse moved back towards the mid-band by the end of last week. Nepse, last week, also fell below its

support level of 972.17 points. Now it has a new support level of 938.41 points and its new resistance

level is at 972.17.

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Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 19, 2015)

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RSI (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 19, 2015)

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MACD (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 19, 2015)

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Bollinger Bands (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 19, 2015)

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