Investing and You

Presented by Manish Dhawan of Mystic Wealth.

Who Am I

Skin in the game

Averaging 29.12% CAGR from last 3 years by doing simple things like Risk Arb, Spin-off and clone Investing.

Manish DhawanManish Dhawan

This Presentation has 02 parts.

What Not to do?. Tell me where I would Die and I won't go there!!!

What to do?

Where is the MONEY!!!?

2 types of players

Technical analysts Value Investors.

There is one thing common in them.

They HATE EACH OTHER

WHY??

Commitment and Consistency Bias.

When you commit yourself to a given strategy/philosophy/person/idea, you start searching for confirmation evidence and start discarding disconfirming ones.

What Do I follow!!!

On a serious Note.

Stop !!! This BIAS and acquire Knowledge

from multiple sources.

Intelligence is beyond the confines of profession and categories, incidentally so is Stupidity.

Intelligent Investor written by Benjamin Graham and the concept of Mr. Market

Risk management and trend following as taught by Ed Seykota

Position sizing as taught by Van Tharp

I have learnt my lessons from

Mental Models and psychology as taught by Charlie Munger and Dan Ariely respectively.

Accountability

Who is a better batsmen

We know the answer because of Audited records, not one off Innings but consistentRecord over the years

What If

There were no rule for OUTS. There was no scorecard. There were no records or data?

How will U differenciate a Sachin from a Sreesanth.

You cannot

Without a scorecard, there will be SurvivorShip Bias.

Without a scorecard, there will be Recency Bias.

Without a Scorecard, there will be Vividness Bias.

Like Warren Once said, “Even a broken clock is right twice in a day”

And Yet its a common site to see this self promotion on CNBC TV 18 and other Business Channels.

Moral of the story

Do NOT Listen /follow anyone who doesn't have SKIN IN THE GAME:

“Mandatory heuristic that anyone involved in an action which can possibly generate harm for others, even probabilistically, should be required to be exposed to some damage, regardless of context”

Nassim Nicholas Taleb..

Where is the MONEY Honey!!!

Please Note that ,markets are inefficient enough to blast the Efficient market Hypothesis, But not enough for you to make easy money.

PART 2

What 2 Do??Depends on

Who U R

A Retail InvestorWith No time and Interest.

A retail InvestorWith time and Interest

A full Time Investor/trader

A Retail InvestorWith No time and Interest.

RESPECT THIS full time Profession and do not INVEST your Money Yourself.

It takes 5 years to become a doc, 4 to become an engineer, atleast 03 toBecome an entreprenuer and you will not become an Investor by reading a couple of books.

A Retail InvestorWith No time and Interest.

Search for a skin in the game

Advisory/Mutual fundlike:- PPFAS

(Parag parikh)

Invest with SIP in Index ETF like

Quantum(low transaction

fees)

A retail InvestorWith time and Interest

Search for a skin in the

game Advisory/

Mutual fundlike:- PPFAS

(Parag parikh)

Invest with SIP in

Index ETF like

Quantum(low

transaction fees)

LONG TERM

TREND FOLLOWING

.

LONG TERM TREND

FOLLOWING.

STEP 1: Go to www.screener.in and add a customised filter.

I use Average return on equity 10Years >30 ANDAverage return on capital employed 5Years >20 ANDDebt to equity <0.3

Following Names among many others showed UP

These are ALL MOATS.

STEP 2: Plot a Cammerilla PIVOT Chart on weekly Timeframe for the selected scrips.

STEP 3: WAIT like a HAWK for the Prices to retrace to your PIVOTS and keep adding on their way UP.

Please request individually to get the AFL for plotting PIVOTS onyou AMBROKER charts

Colgate: Brush ur way to riches.

Asian Paint: Paint ur way to riches.

Dhanuka Agri

Gsk Consumer

You know why this simple strategy works.

Do U KNOW Y??

Its a lollapalooza Effect, The Riding the wave, What goes up, Keeps going up

The Whipsaw SONG

Credited and attributed to Ed Seykota of www.tradingtribe.com

Non commercial Use.

A full Time Investor/trader

IDEA is to SPOT the Inefficiency and then EXPLOIT it.

Demerger/ Spin-Off

Mr.Market Myopia CLONING

Demerger/ Spin-Off

Cash Cow Not getting its due.

PIG getting hammeredOut of shape.

Post news ValueUnlocking

Examples

GULF OIL Value unlocking post news.

Orient Paper PIG getting hammered.

ORIENT Cement: Cow Not respected.

Mr.Market Myopia

That creates Opportunity

Mr Market cannot see beyond 2-4 Quarters.

Maruti Lock OUT

MCX Fiasco

Thomas Cook Crash

JB Chemicals bad Quarter

Sah Petroleum Bonus Issue

Apollo Tyre Crash

EXAMPLES

Apollo Crash

MCX Fiasco

Sah Petroleum

CLONING

Keep ego at bay, we are here to earn money, not BROWNIE POINTS.

Don't give in to the STORY,watch out for survivorship Bias.

Make sure there is skin in the game

Some People I look for

Ayush Mittal

Soham Das

Prof Sanjay bakshi

Amit Arora

Anil Tulsiram

RadhaKrishna Damani

ValuePickr

http://www.vantharp.com/This website has a position sizing simulation game for you to hone your skills.

BOOKMARK

http://www.seykota.com/Tribe/risk/index.htm

EMAIL ME TO RECEIVE A WHOLE COLLECTION OF CHARLIE MUNGER'SSPEECHES AND LECTURES

http://www.vantharp.com/This website has a position sizing simulation game for you to hone your skills.

BOOKMARK

http://www.seykota.com/Tribe/risk/index.htm

EMAIL ME TO RECEIVE A WHOLE COLLECTION OF CHARLIE MUNGER'SSPEECHES AND LECTURES

“There are 02 kind of forcasters, Those who don't know and others who don't know that they don't Know” Daniel Kahneman

Prediction

Process

“We are willing to look stupid as long as we have not done anything stupid”.Warren Buffet.

THANK YOU

EMAIL: info@mysticwealth.inPh:- 09899176304

Website: www.mysticwealth.in