“Millennial Dust Bowl or Magic Cauldron”By: John F. C. Cheong, Ph.D.

Feedback and comments to: johnc@spacemachine.net.Rev.2016.0301

“Millennial Dust or Magic Experiments: How We Addressthe Common Challenge of Finding Good Answers

to Basic Income Research Questions”By: John F. C. Cheong, Ph.D.

1. A Brief History of 16 Basic Income Ideas2. Canvas for Exploring Basic Income “Design Space”3. Basic Income Experiments: Lessons & Opportunities4. Learn This One Truth You Must5. Story Context: Perception, Emotions and Behaviors6. Stagecraft and Casting Make the Script Come Alive7. How We Conduct Stageable Social Science Studies8. Vision: A New “S4 Studio” for Millennial DoM Experiments9. Comparative Advantages of the “S4 Studio” Model10. “DoM” Experiment Design & Social Impact Amplification11. Prepping the “S4 Space Ship” for Launch in 5 Stages12. Mission + Secret of Universe + Call to Action & Closure?

Feedback and comments to: johnc@spacemachine.net.

Hmm…, What’s Wrong with This Picture?

Mincome Experiment (circa 1974~1979) in the town ofDauphin, Manitoba, produced “1,800 cu. ft” of data, all butlost in a government warehouse in Winnipeg. One researcherstruggled for 5 years just to get access; plus another 5+years to analyze and publish its first report in 2011 (finally!).

Wish someone had a computer

back then…

Evelyn L. Forget

NB: Staged to dram

atize the amount of data (not actual scene).

A Brief History of 16 Basic Income Ideas:1

Thomas More(1478~1535)

2Johannes

LudovicusVives(1492~1540) 3

Thomas Jefferson(1776) 4

Antoine Caritat,Marquis de

Condorcet (1795)

5

Thomas Paine(1795)

6

Charles Fourier(1836)

7

John Stuart Mill (1849)

8

Abraham Lincoln(1862)

9

Henry George(1879)10

Edward Bellamy(1887)

11

Bertrand Russell (1918)

12

Milton Friedman (1962)

13Robert Theobald

(1963)

14John Kenneth

Galbraith (1966)

15Daniel Patrick

Moynihan (1969)

16James Tobin (1967, 1972)

Cure for theft!A pragmatic theological

plea for public assistance.

50 acres of public land for anyone to farm.

Idea of social insurance.Agrarian Justice: ground rent a right, not a charity.

Poor relief, right to subsistence.

Principles of Political Economy.Homestead Act: 160 acres of land!

Progress and Poverty: no taxes!

Looking Backward: year 2000.Proposed Roads to Freedom: a small income.

Capitalism and Freedom: negative income tax.

Free Men and Free Markets: jobs and income decoupled.Affluent Society: a guaranteed minimum income.

Family Assistance Plan (FAP): $1,600/yr for family of 4.

Guaranteed income.

Canvas for Exploring Basic Income “Design Space”(What’s After Homesteading or Stakeholding?):

1 Basic Income Program 2 “Something People Want” 3 Program Participants

# Basic Income Feature/Levels A B C D E

1 Pay Frequency 1 wk 2 wk 1 mo 3 mo 6 mo

2 Pay Scale(% of Poverty Line or % FTE?) 50% 75% 100% 125% 150%

3 % Guaranteed? 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

4 % Paid In-Kind? 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

5 Currency Medium USD Credit Notes Bitcoin Binero

6 Food Access Option 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

7 Capital Access Option 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

8 Plus Premium Assist?(Healthcare Insurance Option) 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

# Participant Dyn. State/Levels A B C D E

1 Weekly Work Hours 0 <8 8~20 20~40 > 40

2 Hourly Rate ($) 0 < 10 10~20 20~40 > 40

3 Nature of Work Vol Gig Sub Temp Perm

4 Charitable Giving None Once 2~3 4~5 > 5

5 Work-Play Ratio Work 2:1 1:1 1:2 Play

6 Media Use (hr/day) < 3 3~6 6~12 12~18 > 18

7 Debt Level (+/-$) > -1k < -1k 0 < +1k > +1k

8 Study Hours Logged 0 <8 8~20 20~40 > 40

Ain’t we all brown, bro?

But I’m 50% darker!

Cool shades,

bro.

First Large Scale Social Science Experiments on Basic Income in N. America (circa 1968~1980):

1

2

3

3 45

5

# Locale of Study Neighborhood Size Participants Profile Admin + Program Period

1 Dauphin, Manitoba Small Town ALL All 10,000 town folks Manitoba MINCOME 1974~1979

2 New Jersey & Penn. Declining Urban 1,357 Low-income couples Federal OEO 1968~1972

3 Iowa & N. Carolina Rural 809 Low-income families Federal OEO 1969~1973

4 Gary, Indiana Small Town 1,780 Single-parent households (Black) Federal OEO 1971~1974

5 Seattle & Denver City 4,800 Low-income families SIME-DIME 1971~1982

Read all about it here

This Elephant Had Gone AWOL for Almost 40 Years!

Economist

Sociologist

Political Scientist

Administrator

Policy Maker

Negative Income Tax

Basic IncomeThink

positive.

What’s Changed: (1) Demographics & Labor MarketA

Source: 15 Economic Facts About Millennials. Council of Economic Advisers, 2014.

What’s Changed: (2) Financial TechnologiesB

Then (1968~1980) Now (2016~2020)

Fiat Money: Community Currency:

USD: “Isn’t my money just as green?” BTC: Digital Wallets & Bitcoin

Bureaucracy: Blockchain 2.0: Smart Contracts & DAO

1

2

3

What’s Changed: (3) Methods & TechniquesC

Then (1968~1980) Now (2016~2020)

Static: Dynamic:

Passive One-Shot Hit-or-Miss: Active Feedback Control:

MTMM: DoM Switch:

1

2

3

My Expected Research Contribution (2016~2020):“A methodological focus on rigor in empirical questions and estimating these effects far more precisely than was possible using conventional social science research methods.”

Why is this Important? Because:“… the very rigor [or the lack of rigor] of social experiments limits the policy relevance of the results.”

— Alicia H. Munnell (“Lessons from the Income Maintenance Experiments”, Boston Fed)

The BIG Question: “What Do People Do All Day?”“Do people sit around and play video games, or do they create new things? Are people happy and fulfilled? Do people, without the fear of not being able to eat, accomplish far more and benefit society far more? And do recipients, on the whole, create more economic value than they receive?”

— Sam Altman (“Basic Income”, Y Combinator)

Q

My New Research Opportunities (circa 2016~2020):

Computer ScientistInvestorEntrepreneurModel BuilderFinTech Blogger“All the world’s a stage, and all the men and women merely players;They have their exits and their entrances, and one man in his time plays many parts.”

— William Shakespeare (“As You Like It”)

Basic income, moi?

Short-handed?

My New Hat in the Ring!

Q1 “What do people do all day?”

Q2 “Do story contexts have enough switching power to decide outcomes?”

Q3 “How best to induce social multiplier effect?”

Q4 “How to Pay It Forward?”

Q5 “What then is Money?”

Learn This One Truth You Must.A New Jedi = Force-Sensitive Padawan + 3-mo. Training @ Jedi Academy

+ Shiny New Object Powered by “Crystal Attuned to the Force”

On Stage: Padawans training @ Jedi Academy in Disneyland, California.

Sam I am not.

“These experiments do not take place in a test-tube and they do not involve identicalindividuals. There is just a lot more going on than can possibly be controlled. And many of thosethings are not even economical at all.” — Robert Solow (MIT Economist & Nobel Laureate)

Source: Lessons from the Income Maintenance Experiments (Alicia H. Munnel, Ed.), 1986.

Hypothesis + Big Idea: Story Context SignificantlyAffects Human Perception, Emotions, and Behaviors

An Alternate Story Context Can Switch Perception and Trigger a Totally Different Emotional Response!

Why Story Context Matters: A Classic Example

Why Indeed! Because a good cover story can powerfully induce intended behavior by turning an “obligation” into a “privilege” (or vice versa). It’s a delicious trade that humans keep making time and again (without fail!) under its many different guises!

Sharing vs. Giving vs. Throwing… A Doggone Bone!

“Friendship” “Generosity” “Compassion”

Make No Bones About It: “The simplest act of giving, within the immersive context of a good back story, can unleash very powerful emotions in humans and canines alike!”

Cultural Aspect of Story Context:A

“Red Envelope”(Gift of Money for Good Luck

in the Chinese New Year)

“White Envelope”(Condolence Money Offered

at Japanese Funeral)

Historical Aspect of Story Context:B

“Middle Kingdom”: From the mid-18th century, there was no way for a foreigner to enter China except as a tribute bearer. So tribute bearers was what all foreigners who showed up in China became. Lacking a proper economic rationale, the imperial authorities interpreted instead foreign trade in cultural terms. China, they argued, was the most sophisticated country in the world and by submitting themselves to the rules prescribed by the tribute system, the foreigners assumed their place in this world order.

Religious Aspect of Story Context:C

The 3 Kings: Gifts from these three Magi can really make any new baby feel special indeed.

3 Elements of A Story: Plot, Settings & Characters

Stagecraft and Casting make the Script come Alive! It’s the wonder of human imagination at work.

Stagecraft: “Wizardry of Dust or Magic”1

Staging: Creating the experience of looking into homes @ AirBnB SF HQ.

“An idea can become dust or magic, depending upon the talent that rubs against it.”— Matsuo Bashō 松尾芭蕉 (1644-1694)

Casting: “People Chemistry Beyond Social Physics”2

NanoPutians: Organic molecules with human-like structures.

It’s the non-monetary side of Behavioral Economics, rendered in the humanist tradition, staged using techniques of modern theatre arts. I.e., what do humans do when money is less of an imminent concern?

How We Conduct Stageable Social Science Studies:

Mission Statement

“Millennial Hamster Tribe” (Target)

“Unemployed Gen-Xers”

(Control)

Communication Medium

Community Relationships

4 Key Resources:

Community Currency Reserves+ Smart Contracts + Multi-Armed Bandit+ Decentralized Autonomous Organization

5 Key Activities:

Administration + Experiment Design+ Analysis + Interpretation + Reporting

4 Key Partners:

BasicIncome

Disbursements

Non-Monetary Outcome Measures

$$

Our Organizational Vision: A New “S4 Studio” for Carrying Out “Millennial Dust or Magic” Experiments

“DoM” Experiment Design Principal Investigator

Bring back the humans!

Research Testbed: “Sets & Props”

Basic Income “Flavors” Auditioning and Screening to Cast Participants into Roles

Stories New Experiments Studio Financing Distribution Premiere

It’s a Millennium Falcon!

Comparative Advantages of the “S4 Studio” Model(vs. R&D Labs) in Running Basic Income Experiments:

Industrial R&D Lab Model 21st Century S4 Studio Model

Invented for R&D in Natural Sciences. Designed to Stage Social Science Studies.

Field/Bench Work to Study What & How. Stagecraft + Casting to Study Who & Why.

Zero Story Context (None Needed!). Rich Story Context (Independent Variables!).

For Primarily Quantitative Study. For Both Qualitative and Quantitative Studies.

1

2

3

4

Is-a-Me here running all the experiments.

No sweat really!

But, but…, I worked 98%

harder!

Q2: Do Story Contexts Have Strong Enough “Switching Power” to Decide “Dust or Magic” Outcomes?

Q2

Basic DoM Experiment Design Template

“Control Variables”

“Millennials” (Target)

“Gen-Xers” (Control)

“Independent Variables”

“Red”

“White”

“Red”

“White”

“Dependent Variables”

“Dust”

“Magic”

?

?

?

?

!

!

!

!

Then we can build “Social Impact Circuits” out of “DoM Switches” driven by powerful story contexts (which could just as easily be “dusty” or “magical”) to amplify latent regenerative power inside the “Magic Cauldron” of Basic Income, while steering clear of the “Dust Bowl” where it could do more harm than good.

Q3: How Then to Induce Pinball-like Cascades of“Social Multiplier Effect” using “Social Impact Circuits”?

“Pay It Forward”? Study multiplier effect of “Social Impact Circuits” by measuring velocity of money at critical social mass that could sustain just such a chain reaction. What then is Money? … But a trail of memories about correlated “good deeds”, all performed within a connected community?

That’s my spot…

Arlo theGood Dinosaur

Q3

Q4

Q5

Prepping the “S4 Space Ship” for Launch in 5 Stages (2016~2020):

Impact

• Social Impact Report (SIR)• Velocity of Money Study (VMS)

MiDOM

• Social Impact Circuits• DoM Experiment Design

Deploy

• Transmedia Blended Reality• Multi-Armed Bandit

Design

• Smart Contracts• Community Currency

Setup

• Story Contexts• Scope + PeopleA Setup

B Design

C Deploy

D DoM

E ImpactFinally…

Q1

Q1

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q5

Our Mission is Clear, Simple, and Above All, Logical:

“Get Those Dinosaurs Out…And Put the Humans Back In!”

… and may this be the Greatest Story Ever Told.Feedback and comments to: johnc@spacemachine.net.

One More Thing, About the “Anthropic Principle”…

Why Creation? Here’s A Thesis (Bold but Not Implausible):Humans et al. are but “Sim Agents” evolved according to some compatible carbon-based biochemical blueprints to test the observable universe for eventual sustainable habitability, i.e.,to search for “product/market fit” among parallel universes!

Answer is still 42.

Aww… not again!

Er… what’s the question?

Also Let’s Not Forget the “Uncertainty Principle”(So We Can Do Good While Doing… Well, Good Research!):

Because you’ve just changed the world, for better or for worse, even when you’re only taking a measurement. So make it count!“Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.”

— Albert Einstein

“Dust”

? ?

“Red”

“White”

“Y”

“X”

Unit of Analysis: “Closure” (i.e., Story Context + Participants)

“Basic Income”

(“Battery Fuel”)

Am I in… Matrix?

“Magic”

“Stagecraft” + “(Fore)Casting”

! !

“DoM Switch”(not your average transistor)

Not your average λ-expression.

Now, Back to This “Elephant in the Room”(Modern Portfolio Theory to the Rescue!)

Mean

VarianceAnywhere but Here

A

Brave New World

B

UtopiaC

Dystopia

D Where’d Dumbogo?

“Efficient Frontier”: We already knew that Quadrant “A” is not a good place to be, because it’s the farthest from the “efficient frontier”, according to MPT. Quadrant “B” is closer to reality, and thus easier to get to. Quadrant “C” seems a bit far out; but it’s a worthy challenge. Quadrant “D”? It’s a trap! Don’t go there.

“All the World’s a Stage…, and Humansare Funny in it!” (Especially This One!)

“O wonder! How many godly creatures are there here!How beauteous mankind is! O brave new world, that has such people in’t.”

— William Shakespeare (“The Tempest”)

Coming Up Next: Light, Camera, …(“Call to Action” + “Closure”?)