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1
2011 Mid-YearEconomic Update and Investment Outlook
2
THE DISCLAIMER STATEMENT
This presentation focuses on a wide range of economics and finance issues in order to educate you on the linkages between these topics and their impact on the overall economy and investment markets The content of this presentation represents the opinions of Homrich Berg regarding these educational topics and should not be interpreted as direct investment advice or marketing of HB services Information included is from sources believed to be reliable
ECONOMIC
UPDATE
4
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are still positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings are strongGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
5
Do You Recognize This Economy Hint Itrsquos The USA
YEAR OVER YEAR CHANGE GDP growth rate +56 Personal Income +435 Savings Rate +2391 Fixed Investment +537 Steel Output +1032 Business Sales +886 Durable Goods Sales +122 Factory Shipments +721 Retail Store Sales +731 Factory Orders +1718 Exports +1258
Source Alhambra Investments Contrarian Musings blog November 28 2010
6
The Economy Is Improvinghellipslowly
Source US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
7
Broad Signals Look Positive
LEADING AND COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Source The Conference Board
8
Consumption Continues To Increase
Source US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
9
And Retail Sales Are Almost Back To Pre-Recession Levels
Source US Census Bureau
10
Stimulus and QE2 May Not Have Been Perfect - But Appear To Have Helped Bond and Stock Markets
Source Homrich Berg Analysis
But this recovery doesnrsquot ldquofeelrdquo very good
11Source The Chart Store
SampP 500 in Secular Decline vs Gold
12
Other Bad Newshellip Deep Job Losses = Slow Road To Recovery
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
No Quick Rebound This Time For Jobs
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
High Long Term Unemployed Could CreateNegative Consumption Impact (Eventually)
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Unlike Past Recoveries Interest Rates Canrsquot Really Go Lower To Help This Recovery
Source Board of Governors of US Federal Reserve System
16
New Housing Starts Not Leading Recovery This Time
Source US Census Bureau
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
2
THE DISCLAIMER STATEMENT
This presentation focuses on a wide range of economics and finance issues in order to educate you on the linkages between these topics and their impact on the overall economy and investment markets The content of this presentation represents the opinions of Homrich Berg regarding these educational topics and should not be interpreted as direct investment advice or marketing of HB services Information included is from sources believed to be reliable
ECONOMIC
UPDATE
4
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are still positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings are strongGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
5
Do You Recognize This Economy Hint Itrsquos The USA
YEAR OVER YEAR CHANGE GDP growth rate +56 Personal Income +435 Savings Rate +2391 Fixed Investment +537 Steel Output +1032 Business Sales +886 Durable Goods Sales +122 Factory Shipments +721 Retail Store Sales +731 Factory Orders +1718 Exports +1258
Source Alhambra Investments Contrarian Musings blog November 28 2010
6
The Economy Is Improvinghellipslowly
Source US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
7
Broad Signals Look Positive
LEADING AND COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Source The Conference Board
8
Consumption Continues To Increase
Source US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
9
And Retail Sales Are Almost Back To Pre-Recession Levels
Source US Census Bureau
10
Stimulus and QE2 May Not Have Been Perfect - But Appear To Have Helped Bond and Stock Markets
Source Homrich Berg Analysis
But this recovery doesnrsquot ldquofeelrdquo very good
11Source The Chart Store
SampP 500 in Secular Decline vs Gold
12
Other Bad Newshellip Deep Job Losses = Slow Road To Recovery
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
No Quick Rebound This Time For Jobs
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
High Long Term Unemployed Could CreateNegative Consumption Impact (Eventually)
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Unlike Past Recoveries Interest Rates Canrsquot Really Go Lower To Help This Recovery
Source Board of Governors of US Federal Reserve System
16
New Housing Starts Not Leading Recovery This Time
Source US Census Bureau
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
ECONOMIC
UPDATE
4
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are still positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings are strongGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
5
Do You Recognize This Economy Hint Itrsquos The USA
YEAR OVER YEAR CHANGE GDP growth rate +56 Personal Income +435 Savings Rate +2391 Fixed Investment +537 Steel Output +1032 Business Sales +886 Durable Goods Sales +122 Factory Shipments +721 Retail Store Sales +731 Factory Orders +1718 Exports +1258
Source Alhambra Investments Contrarian Musings blog November 28 2010
6
The Economy Is Improvinghellipslowly
Source US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
7
Broad Signals Look Positive
LEADING AND COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Source The Conference Board
8
Consumption Continues To Increase
Source US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
9
And Retail Sales Are Almost Back To Pre-Recession Levels
Source US Census Bureau
10
Stimulus and QE2 May Not Have Been Perfect - But Appear To Have Helped Bond and Stock Markets
Source Homrich Berg Analysis
But this recovery doesnrsquot ldquofeelrdquo very good
11Source The Chart Store
SampP 500 in Secular Decline vs Gold
12
Other Bad Newshellip Deep Job Losses = Slow Road To Recovery
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
No Quick Rebound This Time For Jobs
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
High Long Term Unemployed Could CreateNegative Consumption Impact (Eventually)
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Unlike Past Recoveries Interest Rates Canrsquot Really Go Lower To Help This Recovery
Source Board of Governors of US Federal Reserve System
16
New Housing Starts Not Leading Recovery This Time
Source US Census Bureau
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
4
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are still positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings are strongGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
5
Do You Recognize This Economy Hint Itrsquos The USA
YEAR OVER YEAR CHANGE GDP growth rate +56 Personal Income +435 Savings Rate +2391 Fixed Investment +537 Steel Output +1032 Business Sales +886 Durable Goods Sales +122 Factory Shipments +721 Retail Store Sales +731 Factory Orders +1718 Exports +1258
Source Alhambra Investments Contrarian Musings blog November 28 2010
6
The Economy Is Improvinghellipslowly
Source US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
7
Broad Signals Look Positive
LEADING AND COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Source The Conference Board
8
Consumption Continues To Increase
Source US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
9
And Retail Sales Are Almost Back To Pre-Recession Levels
Source US Census Bureau
10
Stimulus and QE2 May Not Have Been Perfect - But Appear To Have Helped Bond and Stock Markets
Source Homrich Berg Analysis
But this recovery doesnrsquot ldquofeelrdquo very good
11Source The Chart Store
SampP 500 in Secular Decline vs Gold
12
Other Bad Newshellip Deep Job Losses = Slow Road To Recovery
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
No Quick Rebound This Time For Jobs
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
High Long Term Unemployed Could CreateNegative Consumption Impact (Eventually)
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Unlike Past Recoveries Interest Rates Canrsquot Really Go Lower To Help This Recovery
Source Board of Governors of US Federal Reserve System
16
New Housing Starts Not Leading Recovery This Time
Source US Census Bureau
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
5
Do You Recognize This Economy Hint Itrsquos The USA
YEAR OVER YEAR CHANGE GDP growth rate +56 Personal Income +435 Savings Rate +2391 Fixed Investment +537 Steel Output +1032 Business Sales +886 Durable Goods Sales +122 Factory Shipments +721 Retail Store Sales +731 Factory Orders +1718 Exports +1258
Source Alhambra Investments Contrarian Musings blog November 28 2010
6
The Economy Is Improvinghellipslowly
Source US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
7
Broad Signals Look Positive
LEADING AND COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Source The Conference Board
8
Consumption Continues To Increase
Source US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
9
And Retail Sales Are Almost Back To Pre-Recession Levels
Source US Census Bureau
10
Stimulus and QE2 May Not Have Been Perfect - But Appear To Have Helped Bond and Stock Markets
Source Homrich Berg Analysis
But this recovery doesnrsquot ldquofeelrdquo very good
11Source The Chart Store
SampP 500 in Secular Decline vs Gold
12
Other Bad Newshellip Deep Job Losses = Slow Road To Recovery
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
No Quick Rebound This Time For Jobs
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
High Long Term Unemployed Could CreateNegative Consumption Impact (Eventually)
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Unlike Past Recoveries Interest Rates Canrsquot Really Go Lower To Help This Recovery
Source Board of Governors of US Federal Reserve System
16
New Housing Starts Not Leading Recovery This Time
Source US Census Bureau
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
6
The Economy Is Improvinghellipslowly
Source US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
7
Broad Signals Look Positive
LEADING AND COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Source The Conference Board
8
Consumption Continues To Increase
Source US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
9
And Retail Sales Are Almost Back To Pre-Recession Levels
Source US Census Bureau
10
Stimulus and QE2 May Not Have Been Perfect - But Appear To Have Helped Bond and Stock Markets
Source Homrich Berg Analysis
But this recovery doesnrsquot ldquofeelrdquo very good
11Source The Chart Store
SampP 500 in Secular Decline vs Gold
12
Other Bad Newshellip Deep Job Losses = Slow Road To Recovery
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
No Quick Rebound This Time For Jobs
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
High Long Term Unemployed Could CreateNegative Consumption Impact (Eventually)
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Unlike Past Recoveries Interest Rates Canrsquot Really Go Lower To Help This Recovery
Source Board of Governors of US Federal Reserve System
16
New Housing Starts Not Leading Recovery This Time
Source US Census Bureau
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
7
Broad Signals Look Positive
LEADING AND COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Source The Conference Board
8
Consumption Continues To Increase
Source US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
9
And Retail Sales Are Almost Back To Pre-Recession Levels
Source US Census Bureau
10
Stimulus and QE2 May Not Have Been Perfect - But Appear To Have Helped Bond and Stock Markets
Source Homrich Berg Analysis
But this recovery doesnrsquot ldquofeelrdquo very good
11Source The Chart Store
SampP 500 in Secular Decline vs Gold
12
Other Bad Newshellip Deep Job Losses = Slow Road To Recovery
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
No Quick Rebound This Time For Jobs
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
High Long Term Unemployed Could CreateNegative Consumption Impact (Eventually)
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Unlike Past Recoveries Interest Rates Canrsquot Really Go Lower To Help This Recovery
Source Board of Governors of US Federal Reserve System
16
New Housing Starts Not Leading Recovery This Time
Source US Census Bureau
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
8
Consumption Continues To Increase
Source US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
9
And Retail Sales Are Almost Back To Pre-Recession Levels
Source US Census Bureau
10
Stimulus and QE2 May Not Have Been Perfect - But Appear To Have Helped Bond and Stock Markets
Source Homrich Berg Analysis
But this recovery doesnrsquot ldquofeelrdquo very good
11Source The Chart Store
SampP 500 in Secular Decline vs Gold
12
Other Bad Newshellip Deep Job Losses = Slow Road To Recovery
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
No Quick Rebound This Time For Jobs
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
High Long Term Unemployed Could CreateNegative Consumption Impact (Eventually)
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Unlike Past Recoveries Interest Rates Canrsquot Really Go Lower To Help This Recovery
Source Board of Governors of US Federal Reserve System
16
New Housing Starts Not Leading Recovery This Time
Source US Census Bureau
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
9
And Retail Sales Are Almost Back To Pre-Recession Levels
Source US Census Bureau
10
Stimulus and QE2 May Not Have Been Perfect - But Appear To Have Helped Bond and Stock Markets
Source Homrich Berg Analysis
But this recovery doesnrsquot ldquofeelrdquo very good
11Source The Chart Store
SampP 500 in Secular Decline vs Gold
12
Other Bad Newshellip Deep Job Losses = Slow Road To Recovery
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
No Quick Rebound This Time For Jobs
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
High Long Term Unemployed Could CreateNegative Consumption Impact (Eventually)
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Unlike Past Recoveries Interest Rates Canrsquot Really Go Lower To Help This Recovery
Source Board of Governors of US Federal Reserve System
16
New Housing Starts Not Leading Recovery This Time
Source US Census Bureau
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
10
Stimulus and QE2 May Not Have Been Perfect - But Appear To Have Helped Bond and Stock Markets
Source Homrich Berg Analysis
But this recovery doesnrsquot ldquofeelrdquo very good
11Source The Chart Store
SampP 500 in Secular Decline vs Gold
12
Other Bad Newshellip Deep Job Losses = Slow Road To Recovery
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
No Quick Rebound This Time For Jobs
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
High Long Term Unemployed Could CreateNegative Consumption Impact (Eventually)
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Unlike Past Recoveries Interest Rates Canrsquot Really Go Lower To Help This Recovery
Source Board of Governors of US Federal Reserve System
16
New Housing Starts Not Leading Recovery This Time
Source US Census Bureau
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
But this recovery doesnrsquot ldquofeelrdquo very good
11Source The Chart Store
SampP 500 in Secular Decline vs Gold
12
Other Bad Newshellip Deep Job Losses = Slow Road To Recovery
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
No Quick Rebound This Time For Jobs
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
High Long Term Unemployed Could CreateNegative Consumption Impact (Eventually)
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Unlike Past Recoveries Interest Rates Canrsquot Really Go Lower To Help This Recovery
Source Board of Governors of US Federal Reserve System
16
New Housing Starts Not Leading Recovery This Time
Source US Census Bureau
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
12
Other Bad Newshellip Deep Job Losses = Slow Road To Recovery
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
No Quick Rebound This Time For Jobs
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
High Long Term Unemployed Could CreateNegative Consumption Impact (Eventually)
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Unlike Past Recoveries Interest Rates Canrsquot Really Go Lower To Help This Recovery
Source Board of Governors of US Federal Reserve System
16
New Housing Starts Not Leading Recovery This Time
Source US Census Bureau
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
13
No Quick Rebound This Time For Jobs
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
High Long Term Unemployed Could CreateNegative Consumption Impact (Eventually)
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Unlike Past Recoveries Interest Rates Canrsquot Really Go Lower To Help This Recovery
Source Board of Governors of US Federal Reserve System
16
New Housing Starts Not Leading Recovery This Time
Source US Census Bureau
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
14
High Long Term Unemployed Could CreateNegative Consumption Impact (Eventually)
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Unlike Past Recoveries Interest Rates Canrsquot Really Go Lower To Help This Recovery
Source Board of Governors of US Federal Reserve System
16
New Housing Starts Not Leading Recovery This Time
Source US Census Bureau
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
15
Unlike Past Recoveries Interest Rates Canrsquot Really Go Lower To Help This Recovery
Source Board of Governors of US Federal Reserve System
16
New Housing Starts Not Leading Recovery This Time
Source US Census Bureau
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
16
New Housing Starts Not Leading Recovery This Time
Source US Census Bureau
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
17
Home Prices Were Starting To Improve ndash But Watch Out For Housing Price Double Dip in 2011
Source SampP Case Shiller Home Price Index
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
18
Inflation In General Looms As A Potential New Challenge That Will Test The Fedrsquos Policies
Source US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
19
And Oil Prices Could Have An Unpleasant Impact On Growth If They and Gas Prices Continue To Rise
Source Doug Short dshortcom
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
20
The Ugly - Excessive Government Debt Is A Bearish Concern That Could Impact Long Term GDP Growth
Source February 2010 Pimco Investment Outlook
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
21
When FannieFreddie Debt Is Included We Feel Like Greece
Source Ned Davis Research
Greece is ldquoonlyrdquo 120
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
22
The Forecast For Now Is Not Improving Unless We Tackle The Major RetirementMedical Benefits Programs
Source Congressional Budget Office Office of Management and Budget Data as of 8310
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
23
Excessive Overall Debt Is A Bearish Concern Even Beyond Government Debt ndash We Still Have To Deleverage
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Source US Bureau of Census Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Reports
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
24
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
Economic growth signals are very positive and consumption is apparently rebounding while corporate earnings (and government policy) are reviving the stock marketGOOD
BAD
UGLY
Unemployment Housing Interest Rates and Oil all loom as potential caution flags that could reverse the good news story
Government debt and overall debt are not going away as major issues that could reduce long term growth and lead to unpleasant outcomes
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
25
INVESTMENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
26
Market Indicators We Monitor Are Mixed
Technical Momentum and Breadth indicators are both trending negative for market performance to continue to improve
Sentiment indicators are the opposite ndash high pessimism typically leads towards a reboun
Interest rate indicators are mixed with the much uncertainly around the end of QE2
Valuation metrics are mostly neutral or slightly bearish with one concern being revenue growth in 2011 continuing to support the earnings growth (is it sustainable)
Source January 2011 HB Analysis
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Valuations US Corporate Bonds vs SampP 500
27
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
28
Demographic Trends Point To Extended Secular Bear Market Despite The Current Optimism
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Long Term Demographics ndash a US positive
29
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
30
Investment Trends To Watch For Rest of 2011
Rosier forecasts of moving towards 4 annualized GDP growth came from many analysts earlier but expect only slightly better housing and jobs stories in 2011 as that depressing overhang continues ndash this is the big caution sign for rosy growth and stock market predictions
Bumpy up and down stock market ride ahead even though overall trend likely upward with many analysts predicting 10-20 SampP 500 growth for 2011 (we thought first half of 2011 might do well but have been worried about second half)
Bond market potentially goes in reverse as rates start to rise eventually and investors flood back out ndash we have seen some of this retail investor move already
GDP
US Equities
Fixed Income
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
31
Investment Trends To Watch For 2011
Real estate still not out of the woods despite massive REIT stock uptick ndash debt maturity rollover issue not done yet and commercial space inventory still high
Commodities should continue to grind higher pushed by eventual modest inflation and continued emerging market demand
Emerging market equities and debt attractive ndash but everyone is chasing it so buyer bewarehellipvolatility ahead and emerging market governments will want to cool down inflation
Some European countries potentially stronger growth than USA ndash but euro debt crisis looms over that story no matter what
Real Estate
Commodities
InternationalMarkets
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
Homrich Berg ndash One Buckhead Plaza3060 Peachtree Road NWSuite 830Atlanta Georgia 30305Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
Homrich Berg ndash North Atlanta5400 Laurel Springs ParkwaySuite 304Suwanee Georgia 30024Phone 404-264-1400Fax 404-237-5114
![Hemoglobin Tetramer [Hb(O 2 )] [Hb]P O 2 K 2 = [Hb(O 2 )] [Hb]P O 2 K 3 = [Hb(O 2 )] [Hb]P O 2 K 4 = [Hb(O 2 )] [Hb]P O 2 K 1 = = 4.88 = 15.4 = 6.49 =](https://img.pdfslide.us/doc/110x75/56649d5f5503460f94a3fa6a/hemoglobin-tetramer-hbo-2-hbp-o-2-k-2-hbo-2-hbp-o-2-k-3-hbo.jpg)
