Overview

Reason for the DrillDown

DrillDown Process

Kansas City Results

District Results and Selected Neighborhoods

Questions after each major section

Major Barrier to Urban Investment

Major barrier: Lack of purchasing power

Major barrier: Insufficient concentration of target customer

Major barrier: Crime or Perception of Crime

Why are we here? Accurate market information about our urban core areas.

Source: ICSC Retail Survey 2002

The Census

Census increasingly undercounts urban core areas and is less accurate as time passes

Full count every 10 years – need yearly household data to inform policy & update market models for development

Misses pockets of development and subsequent growth (ex. population from Crossroads, Westport condos and lofts)

Cash economy is absent

The DRILLDOWN Social Compact, nonprofit funded by a coalition of

Banks and retail companies to improve inner-city marketability.

An estimate of the urban population using multiple data sources from federal, state & city levels

Transactional data: utility use, purchases, and property information.

The DRILLDOWNAsset Data Drives Urban Investment

Uncovers hidden market assets, like population, true purchasing power, and the informal economy

Backed by Brookings, ICSC, the Federal Reserve, top 100 marketing retail research departments.

Conducted in over 100 urban neighborhoods resulting in nearly one billion in investment

15 cities to date, three more coming on in 2008. www.socialcompact.org

DrillDown Impact in Other Cities Houston – Results provide solid case for redevelopment of

Gulfgate Mall and surrounding area.

D.C. - Key to attracting Target and Giant to two urban neighborhoods.

Harlem – $1 billion in cash economy. Fleet setup two branches, 3 atms and a micro-lending facility.

Cleveland - $820 million cash economy results in KeyBank establishing new branches and strategy to increase banking in urban core neighborhoods.

DrillDown: How Does It Work?

Transactional data versus reported data

Use multiple 'layers' of data

Overlay, one dataset may capture

DrillDown: How Does It Work?

CensusAddress 1Address 2Address 3Address 4Address 5

DrillDown: How Does It Work?

Census CreditAddress 1Address 2Address 3Address 4Address 5

DrillDown: How Does It Work?

Census Credit PermitsAddress 1Address 2Address 3Address 4Address 5

DrillDown: How Does It Work?

Census Credit Permits WaterAddress 1Address 2Address 3Address 4Address 5

Sample of the Data Sets

Credit Bureaus (3) MLS/Home Sales Claritas Consumer BLS Cons Exp Rep ESRI Business Ind. IRS Records USPS Records

KC Water Building Permits Demolition Permits Public Housing Parcel Data Tax Assessment Payday/Banks/Retail

Notes on Results

DrillDown captures both missed households & pockets of new development

Not necessarily growth since 2000 DrillDown is an estimation technique not a

survey method

Kansas City Highlights

Population: 533,117, or approximately 71,000 higher than 2000 Census estimates.

Change: Census 2006 estimates show a small population decrease of -1.9%, compared to the DrillDown estimates of 15%.

Kansas City Highlights Income: DrillDown estimates average household income

is $54,000 or 13% higher than the Census 2000 estimate.

When the informal or "cash" economy is included, the average household income rises to $57,000.

Cash economy: The DrillDown estimates the citywide cash economy to be worth $668 million dollars

P opulation Change DrillDown 2007 & Census 2000

462,255

533,117

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

A vg In come D rillD ow n 2007 & C en su s 2000

$48 ,125

$57 ,326

$0

$15 ,000

$30 ,000

$45 ,000

$60 ,000

$75 ,000

Includes Informal or Cash Economy

District Map

Districts Overview

Population : The DrillDown estimates show significant change in all Districts, the largest in Districts 1, 3 and 5

Income: Average household income is higher in all Districts, with large spikes in District 3 and 5 due to the informal or cash economy.

Districts Overview

Cash Economy: Large cash economy in Districts 3, 5 and 6.

Density is a critical market asset in District 3 and 4, demonstrating the highest per acre purchasing power across the city.

Population Change DrillDow n 2007 & Census 2000

9 6 ,1 8 6

8 5 ,8 2 67 8 ,5 7 2

9 4 ,0 7 4

8 0 ,0 4 3

9 8 ,4 1 6

0

2 5 ,0 0 0

5 0 ,0 0 0

7 5 ,0 0 0

1 0 0 ,0 0 0

District 1 District 2 District 3 District 4 District 5 District 6

A v g In c o m e D rillD o w n 2 0 0 7 & C e n s u s 2 0 0 0

$ 7 0 ,1 3 8

$ 4 1 ,1 1 3

$ 6 7 ,0 8 6

$ 5 0 ,0 4 1

$ 6 1 ,7 8 4

$ 5 3 ,7 9 3

$ 0

$ 1 5 ,0 0 0

$ 3 0 ,0 0 0

$ 4 5 ,0 0 0

$ 6 0 ,0 0 0

$ 7 5 ,0 0 0

D is tric t 1 D is tric t 2 D is tric t 3 D is tric t 4 D is tric t 5 D is tric t 6

Inc ludes In form al or Cash Econom y

Purchasing Power Per Acre DrillDown 2007 & Census 2000

$102,706

$236,803

$57,763$40,963

$25,529$33,390

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

D istr ic t 1 D is tr ic t 2 D is tr ic t 3 D is tr ic t 4 D is tr ic t 5 D is tr ic t 6

District 1 Population: 98,416 -

difference of 29% from Census 2000

Income: $53,793 average income with cash economy included - 17% difference from Census 2000

District 2 $70,138 average income with

cash economy included - 19% difference from Census 2000

Highest average income of all districts and should bode well for the retail that will serve the downtown CBD and Rivermarket population.

District 3 Population change: 17%

Average income: $41,113

$$ per acre = $102,726 - 44% difference from Census 2000.

2nd highest $$ per acre

District 4 Avg Income: $67,086 - 16%

difference from Census 2000

$$ per acre: $236,803 - 15% difference from Census 2000

District 5 Pop: 75,832 - difference

of 24% from Census 2000

Greatest change in total economy with a 53% difference from the Census by including the cash economy.

District 6 Population: 76,591 -

difference of 5% from Census 2000

Avg Income $61,784 - informal cash economy included - 17% difference from Census 2000

Next Steps

Additional Data – retail leakage, credit report penetration, vacancy rates

Monthly Webinars Desktop Application (July/August) – enable

quick (SIMPLE) data access using google map platform

Custom reports with Corridor Partners or on a purchase/request basis for others

KCUMA Team Dan Melton, PhD – Team Leader Robyne Turner, PhD – UMKC Leader Ryan Gerety – Social Compact Liaison Kate Bender – KCMO Liaison Doug Bowles – UMKC CEI Liaison UMKC Team: Chris Green, Heather Starzynski,

Joe Zhao, Sam Newby

Questions?

For More Information:

Dan Melton

KCUMA Coordinator

dmelton@nonprofittechnologies.com

http://www.kcuma.org