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L O S T D E C A D E Opportunities in global fixed income For professional investors only – not for use by or onward distribution to retail investors

J.p.morgan asset management

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Page 1: J.p.morgan asset management

L O S T D E C A D EOpportunities in global fixed income

For professional investors only – not for use by or onward distribution to retail investors

Page 2: J.p.morgan asset management

Why the “Lost Decade”?: debt

Overall Debt% of GDP, latest

Over 400

300 – 399

200 – 299

0 – 199

Russia

China

India

Canada

UnitedStates

Brazil

Japan

UK Germany

France

Spain Italy

Switz.

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, McKinsey. For illustrative purposes only

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Page 3: J.p.morgan asset management

Dealing with debt: growth

Leading indicators are flat

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

USD GBP EM - GDP weights

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg

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Page 4: J.p.morgan asset management

Dealing with debt: Europe

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. For illustrative purposes only

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Page 5: J.p.morgan asset management

Liquidity

Solvency

Devaluation

Inflation

Why always me? UK vs Europe

MoreAusterity

LowGrowth

HighDebt

MissedDeficits

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

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Page 6: J.p.morgan asset management

0

1

2

3

4

5

1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201

Japan 10yr Yields: starting Jan 1995

US, UK, Germany 10yr yields equally weighted: starting June 2008

Months

We’ve been here before...

Government bonds: return free risk

%

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg. For illustrative purposes only

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Page 7: J.p.morgan asset management

W H A T W O U L D I N D Y D O ?Is 2012 the new 2011? Adventures with Indy

Adventure Level

Very High Moderate Very Low High

Adventure Level What to own

1 Extreme Peripheral Europe

2 Very High EMFX

3 High High Yield

4 Moderate EMD

5 Slight IG Corporates

6 Low Mortgages

7 Very Low UST/Gilt

% %

High Yield OAS (LHS)UST 10yr Yield (RHS)

4

6

8

10

Dec Mar Jun Sep

1

2

3

4

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management7

Page 8: J.p.morgan asset management

0

2

4

6

8

10

Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Sep 2011 Dec 2011 Mar 2012

BofA ML UK Gilts BofA ML Global Corprates BofA ML US High Yield

Where do you raid?

Comparing yields 1 year ago and now

%31st May 2011 31st May 2012

6.91%

3.73%

2.96%

7.79%

3.37%

1.64%

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

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Page 9: J.p.morgan asset management

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

US Govt Yield US High Yield Spread Default rate (rhs)

Hunting for income

High yield: Risk vs. reward%%

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

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Page 10: J.p.morgan asset management

Don’t ignore investment grade credit

Spreads have room to narrow

bps

25

75

125

175

225

275

325

375

Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12

US OAS GBP OAS JPY OAS

Source: Barclays Capital. Data as of May 2012. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

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Page 11: J.p.morgan asset management

Who has the capacity to repay debt?

Italy

United States

United Kingdom

Spain

Greece

France

Germany

Venezuela

Korea

IndonesiaMexico

China

South Africa

India

Brazil

Hungary

Poland

Russia Argentina

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

-

2

4 - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

20

11 F

isc

al D

efi

cit

(% o

f G

DP

)

Public Debt 2011 (% of GDP)

Developed Markets Developing Markets

Source: IMF Outlook as at September 2011

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Page 12: J.p.morgan asset management

JPM Strategic Bond Fund (OEIC)

Key features Risk and return targets*

‘Best ideas’ actively managed global

bond fund

Diversified opportunity set across global

fixed income and currency markets.

Dynamic sector management, aiming to

only take risk when compelling

investment opportunities are identified

Return: 3% above cash

Duration: 0-9 years

Quality: Maximum 50% below

Investment Grade

Currency: Mainly hedged to base

currency (80%)

There can be no assurance that the Fund will achieve its investment objective, the Target Return or any other objectives. The target return shown above is neither guaranteed by nor binding on the Manager. Please refer to the Fund Prospectus. * Risk and return targets shown gross of all expenses and investment management fees, they are the objective of the fund manager. Please read the Prospectus for more information about the investment objective and investment policy of the fund.

yield 3.48%

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Page 13: J.p.morgan asset management

Jun 09 Sep 09 Dec 09 Mar 10 Jun 10 Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 1299.0

104.0

109.0

114.0

119.0

124.0

129.0

134.0

JPM Strategic Bond Fund (JPM A - Net Acc)

GBP Broad Market Index

3 Month GBP LIBOR

Past performance is not a guide to the future. Source: Bloomberg. Fund return shown net of all applicable expenses, fees and taxes for ‘JPM A – Net Acc’ class. Please refer to the fund’s prospectus for a description of the other available classes of shares, the performance of which will differ from that shown above. Fund and benchmark rebased to 100 as of fund inception. *Inception date: 6 th May 2009. GBP Broad Market Index shown is the Merrill Lynch Sterling Broad Market Index (UK00).

Performance JPM Strategic GBP Broad 3 Month Bond Fund Market Index GBP

LIBOR

Since Inception* 28.18% 35.97% 2.63%

JPM Strategic Bond Fund (OEIC): investment performanceAs at 31 May 2012

yield 3.48%

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Page 14: J.p.morgan asset management

Benefiting from a global strategic allocation

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; Data as of May 2012 Note: Duration exposure is achieved through exchange traded bond futures.

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Page 15: J.p.morgan asset management

Debt overhang Interest rates to remain low

Japan is the roadmap Fixed Income returns 'surprise'

Anaemic recovery Hunting for yield

Regulatory pressure Credit analysis critical

Global opportunities High Yield, Corporates, EMD

The next instalment: Avoiding the Temple of Doom

Globally Integrated. Research Driven

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Page 16: J.p.morgan asset management

JPM Strategic Bond FundObjective

To maximise returns by investing primarily in a global portfolio of fixed and floating rate debt securities. The Fund may invest in developed and emerging market countries and hold investment grade, non-investment grade and unrated bonds. The Fund may have a concentrated portfolio and may have a significant exposure to any one country, sector or issuer, which may include emerging markets and non-investment grade or unrated bonds, at any time. Allocations between countries, sectors and ratings of bonds may vary significantly at any time. The Fund may use derivatives for investment purposes or Efficient Portfolio Management including hedging, where appropriate. The Fund is also permitted to invest up to 100% in government and public securities.

Risk Profile

Bond funds may not behave like direct investments in the underlying bonds themselves. By investing in bond funds, the certainty of receiving a regular fixed amount of income for a defined period of time with the prospect of a future known return of capital is lost.

Bond prices can fluctuate significantly depending not only on the global economic and interest rate conditions but also on the general credit market environment and the creditworthiness of the issuer.

The credit quality of high yield bonds is below investment grade and they usually offer higher yields to compensate for the reduced creditworthiness and the increased risk of default relative to investment grade bonds.

Bonds with a lower credit rating may have a higher risk of defaulting which may in turn have an adverse effect on the performance of Funds which invest in them.

The investment policy of the Fund permits the use of derivatives and/or forward transactions for investment purposes. As a result the Fund may sometimes be leveraged, potentially increasing the volatility and therefore risk of the Fund.

The Fund may have a significant exposure to asset and mortgage backed securities (ABS and MBS). Owing to the nature of some ABS and MBS, the exact timing and size of cashflows paid by the securities may not be fully assured.

Bond funds will normally distribute a combination of coupon and the expected discount/premium on the securities. Therefore, a Fund’s distribution will comprise income received and an element of projected capital gains or losses. This could result in an element of capital gain being taxed as income in the hands of an investor.

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Page 17: J.p.morgan asset management

Important informationFor Professional Investor use only – not for retail use or distribution.

This material is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment by J. P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to enter into any transaction referenced herein. All information provided by J. P. Morgan Asset Management herein is indicative, is based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and is subject to change without notice. Accordingly, no reliance should be placed on the information herein. In deciding whether to enter into any transaction or strategy referenced herein, the recipient should rely solely on the final documentation which will contain the definitive terms and conditions relating to any referenced transaction or strategy.

These materials have been provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or strategies mentioned herein. Past performance is not a guide to the future.

Any forecasts, opinions and statements of financial market trends expressed are J. P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document and may be subject to change without notice. Any research in this document has been obtained and may have been acted upon by J. P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available as additional information only and do not constitute investment advice. They do not reflect the views of JPMorgan Chase Group. The value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the product or underlying overseas investments.

J. P. Morgan Asset Management makes no representation or warranty regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information herein. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is not an advisor to any person who receives information on any referenced transaction.

Investment is subject to documentation (Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus and Terms and Conditions), copies of which can be obtained free of charge from JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited.

Issued in the UK by JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in England No. 288553. Registered address: 125 London Wall, London EC2Y 5AJ.

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