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1
Investor presentation
Dinner
4 November2008
2
Outline
Q3 recap
Asset quality
Baltics
Capitalisation
3
Highlights Q3 2008Resilient underlying business; collective provisions in the BalticsNegative financial effects due to financial crisisAccelerated cost management due to economic downturn
Financial crisis impacts profit…
* Excluding sales of Baltic properties in Q4 2007 of SEK 785m
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
Q12007
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008
Q2 Q3
Lehman Brothers-related lossesPortfolio lossesReported operating profit*
…but underlying income generation is stable
** Net financial income, Net insurance income and Other income
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Q12007
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008
Q2 Q3
Other income**Net fee and commission incomeNet interest income
4
Net financial incomeGroup
+ corp fin intäkter I marknaden?
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
Q3 07 Q2 08 Q3 08
FX Equities Capital CPM Other incl.Markets Treasury
SEK 63bnSEK
55bn
SEK 12bn
Structured credits
Financial institutions
Covered bonds etc
Merchant Banking Investment portfolio
SEK m
SEK m Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08
P/L -872 -66 -348Equity -1,630 -56 -2,134
-2,502 -122 -2,482
5
Group credit exposure
Nordics66%
By geographyTotal exposure = SEK 1,805bn
Germany24%
Lithuania5% Latvia
2%
Estonia3%
By sectorTotal exposure = SEK 1,805bn
14%
40%
14%
6%
26%
Property management
Public admin.
Banks
Corporate
House-holds
6
186219 227 235 235
55 67 68 70 7228 44 45 47 50
68
73 7679 78
27 20 20 21 22
1010 11 11 11
Dec'06
Dec'07
Mar'08
Jun'08
Sep'08
Dec'06
Dec'07
Mar'08
Jun'08
Sep'08
Dec'06
Dec'07
Mar'08
Jun'08
Sep'08
Mortgage Other
Nordic Germany Baltic
Households Credit PortfolioSEK bn
77
Corporate Credit PortfolioSEB Group, SEK bn
458 463
573
720
Dec2005
Dec2006
Dec2007
Sep2008
12%
11%
10%
18%3%
27%
19%
Finance and insurance Wholesale and retailTransportation Other service sectorsConstruction ManufacturingOther
8
Corporate Credit PortfolioSEB Group, SEK 720bn
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
"Nordic" LargerClients
German LargerClients
Baltic Clients Swedish RetailClients
Other
Dec '06 Jun '07 Dec '07 Jun '08 Sep '08
9
42%
35%
3%
2%
6%
8%1%3%
Sweden Germany EstoniaLatvia Lithuania Other NordicOther European Other
* By obligor’s domicile
Property Management Credit PortfolioSEB Group, SEK 245bn
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
GermanClients
NordicLargerClients
NordicRetailClients
BalticClients
Dec '06 Jun '07 Dec '07Jun '08 Sep '08
Credit exposureSEKbn
10
Asset quality
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
2006 2007 Q12008*
Q1-Q22008*
Q1-Q32008*
Germany BalticsNordics SEB Group
Net Credit Losses% of lending
Estonia 1.31Latvia 0.96Lithuania 0.43Baltics 0.85
*Annualised figures
0%
1%
2%
3%
Mar'06
Jun'06
Sep'06
Dec'06
Mar'07
Jun'07
Sep'07
Dec'07
Mar'08
Jun'08
Sep'08
SEB Group GermanyNordic Baltic
1.5%1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Impaired Loans Volumes% of Credit Portfolio*
11
Baltics – macro developmentLengthy recession in Estonia and Latvia; negative growth both in 2008 and 2009Weak growth in less overheated Lithuanian economyDomestic demand remains depressedIncreased exchange rate risk in Estonia and LatviaLarge imbalances will dampen:– Wage inflation declines
sharply – Large current account deficits
will shrink, but still high 2010
-5
0
5
10
15
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f)
2009(f)
2010(f)
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
GDP, %
Retail sales, Y-o-Y %
-20-10
010203040
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
12
17 22 22 18 21 2234 39 458 8 8
4 5 6
813
15
1419 20
1014 14
13
2226
564441
34
525041
89
76
Dec'06
Dec'07
Sep '08 Dec'06
Dec'07
Sep '08 Dec'06
Dec'07
Sep '08
Total
Banks
PublicAdministrationHouseholds
PropertyManagementCorporate
SEB Estonia SEB Latvia SEB Lithuania
Growth rates in local currency+38% +17% +40% +18% +47% +30%
2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007
+1%
2008 YTD
+4% +13% 2008 YTD 2008 YTD
Baltic countries – Credit exposure On and off balance, SEK bn
13
30%15%
33%
68%83%
63%
USD
EUR
Local
22% 13%38%
78% 85%
62%USD
EUR
Local
Cor
pora
teH
ouse
hold
sBaltics – currency profileLending & Leasing portfolio
SEB Estonia SEB Latvia SEB Lithuania
14
-50
50
150
250
350
Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08
Specific Collective
Provisioning to build up reservesSEK m
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
mar-07 jun-07 sep-07 dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Impaired loans in SEB’s portfolioPer cent
Baltics - asset quality
Managed credit growth slowdownTargeted credit portfolio reviewsJoint local and head-office work-out teamEarly conservative provisioning
15
Profit before credit lossesSEK m
Baltics - profit development
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
2005 2006 2007 Jan-Sep2008
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Net credit lossesSEK m
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
2005 2006 2007 Jan-Sep2008
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Profit after credit lossesSEK m
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
2005 2006 2007 Jan-Sep2008
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
16
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Baltics - customer growthQ1 2005 – Q3 2008
Corporate customerPrivate customer
Sweden
Number of customers Product penetration
Baltics
17
Capitalisation and RWA growth
Tier 1 capital ratioPer cent
0%
5%
10%
15%
september 2008
Without transition rules
With transition rules
4% SwedishFSA's
minimum rules
6% Stabilitypackage
Risk-weighted assetsSEK bn
0
300
600
900
1,200
Q12007
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Basel I Basel II
Tier 1 9,9 %
Tier 1 8,1 %
18
Basel II Tier 1 ratios – Nordic banks
Notes:1 RWA adjusted for life insurance impact (life insurance assets risk weighted under statutory disclosure) to allow comparison2 According to guidance on RWA under full Basel II implementation and Vital RWA given on Q3 conference call3 Including capital rasing announced 27 October 20084 Stated figure includes a 50% deduction of insurance capital from tier 1 capital. Adjusted for this deduction, Danske’s Tier 1 ratio is 10.3%5 Assuming 1%-point improvement of core capital ratio (excluding hybrid and insurance capital) under full implementation, RWA only disclosed including Basel II
transition rule adjustment
1.5
1.7
0.8
1.01.3
(1.8) (2.0)(1.2) (0.9)
(3.3)(2.2)
7.0 7.3
9.2
6.78.1
9.2
1.4 0.9
0.5
0.6
0.91.2
(4.0)
(2.0)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
SEB DnB NOR Danske Bank Nordea SHB Swedbank
Core capital ratio (excl. 100% of insurance and capital floors) Impact of insurance capital (100%)Impact of hybrid capital Impact of Basel II capital floor (as per Q3 08)
7.3
8.2
7.0
8.1 6.7
10.1
1
25
Last reported Basel II tier 1 ratios, including capital floors
10.5
9.4
7.9
9.9 10.0
11.5
3
4
8.29.2
7.28.4 9.09.8
2
5
Last reported Basel II tier 1 ratios, excluding capital floors
Source: UBS
19
Basel II Tier 1 ratios – British banks
Source: UBS
6.7 7.7 6.5 7.6 7.6
1.0 2.60.9
1.2 1.30.9
1.4
1.4 1.2
3.11.7
0.22.3
1.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
HSBC HBOS Lloyds TSB RBS Barclays
Core capital (excluding insurance capital) Impact of insurance capital (100%)Impact of preference shares Impact of hybrid
8.7
12.1 12.1 12.711.3
6.75.1 3.6 4.5 5.0
2.6
0.21.0 2.1
1.2 1.3 0.91.41.0
1.21.4 1.40.8
0.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
HSBC HBOS Lloyds TSB RBS Barclays
Core capital (excluding insurance capital) Impact of insurance capital (100%)Impact of preference shares Impact of hybrid
8.7 8.6 8.6 8.67.9
Pre announced capital increase (Q2 2008)
Post announced capital increase (Q2 2008)1
Notes:1 Capital raisings post 30 June 2008,
HSBC: 0, HBOS: £8.5bn of ordinary shares, £3.0bn of preference shares, Lloyds TSB: £4.5 of ordinary shares, £1.0bn of preference shares Barclays: £5.1bn of ordinary shares, £3.0bn of preference shares, RBS: £15.0bn of ordinary shares, £5.0bn of preference shares
2 RWA adjusted for life insurance impact (life insurance assets risk weighted under statutory disclosure) to allow comparison
2
2
7.7 6.5
6.2
5.7
Stated Basel II tier 1 ratios as per 30/06/2008, including capital floors
7.79.1 9.1 8.8
20
Swedish stability package -Guarantee pricing
Unsecured <1 year: 50bpsUnsecured >1 year: 50bps+28bps (CDS) = 78bpsCovered bonds: 25bps+ ~10bps (AAA-CDS) = ~35bps
Maximum scope: for each bank: its outstanding debt maturing until April 30th, 2009; for the system: SEK 1,500bn
Participating banks to pay a risk-based fee for the guarantee; Fee level: somewhere between today's funding costs in the market and the notional funding costs under normal market circumstances
Allowed instruments: senior term debt with maturities between 3 months and 5 years, including covered bonds!
21
Going forward
● Holistic balance sheet management
● Robust capital and good liquidity
● Resilient customer business
● Lower absolute costs
2222