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1 Investor presentation Dinner 4 November 2008

ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

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Page 1: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

1

Investor presentation

Dinner

4 November2008

Page 2: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

2

Outline

Q3 recap

Asset quality

Baltics

Capitalisation

Page 3: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

3

Highlights Q3 2008Resilient underlying business; collective provisions in the BalticsNegative financial effects due to financial crisisAccelerated cost management due to economic downturn

Financial crisis impacts profit…

* Excluding sales of Baltic properties in Q4 2007 of SEK 785m

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3

Lehman Brothers-related lossesPortfolio lossesReported operating profit*

…but underlying income generation is stable

** Net financial income, Net insurance income and Other income

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3

Other income**Net fee and commission incomeNet interest income

Page 4: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

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Net financial incomeGroup

+ corp fin intäkter I marknaden?

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

Q3 07 Q2 08 Q3 08

FX Equities Capital CPM Other incl.Markets Treasury

SEK 63bnSEK

55bn

SEK 12bn

Structured credits

Financial institutions

Covered bonds etc

Merchant Banking Investment portfolio

SEK m

SEK m Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08

P/L -872 -66 -348Equity -1,630 -56 -2,134

-2,502 -122 -2,482

Page 5: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

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Group credit exposure

Nordics66%

By geographyTotal exposure = SEK 1,805bn

Germany24%

Lithuania5% Latvia

2%

Estonia3%

By sectorTotal exposure = SEK 1,805bn

14%

40%

14%

6%

26%

Property management

Public admin.

Banks

Corporate

House-holds

Page 6: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

6

186219 227 235 235

55 67 68 70 7228 44 45 47 50

68

73 7679 78

27 20 20 21 22

1010 11 11 11

Dec'06

Dec'07

Mar'08

Jun'08

Sep'08

Dec'06

Dec'07

Mar'08

Jun'08

Sep'08

Dec'06

Dec'07

Mar'08

Jun'08

Sep'08

Mortgage Other

Nordic Germany Baltic

Households Credit PortfolioSEK bn

Page 7: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

77

Corporate Credit PortfolioSEB Group, SEK bn

458 463

573

720

Dec2005

Dec2006

Dec2007

Sep2008

12%

11%

10%

18%3%

27%

19%

Finance and insurance Wholesale and retailTransportation Other service sectorsConstruction ManufacturingOther

Page 8: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

8

Corporate Credit PortfolioSEB Group, SEK 720bn

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

"Nordic" LargerClients

German LargerClients

Baltic Clients Swedish RetailClients

Other

Dec '06 Jun '07 Dec '07 Jun '08 Sep '08

Page 9: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

9

42%

35%

3%

2%

6%

8%1%3%

Sweden Germany EstoniaLatvia Lithuania Other NordicOther European Other

* By obligor’s domicile

Property Management Credit PortfolioSEB Group, SEK 245bn

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

GermanClients

NordicLargerClients

NordicRetailClients

BalticClients

Dec '06 Jun '07 Dec '07Jun '08 Sep '08

Credit exposureSEKbn

Page 10: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

10

Asset quality

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

2006 2007 Q12008*

Q1-Q22008*

Q1-Q32008*

Germany BalticsNordics SEB Group

Net Credit Losses% of lending

Estonia 1.31Latvia 0.96Lithuania 0.43Baltics 0.85

*Annualised figures

0%

1%

2%

3%

Mar'06

Jun'06

Sep'06

Dec'06

Mar'07

Jun'07

Sep'07

Dec'07

Mar'08

Jun'08

Sep'08

SEB Group GermanyNordic Baltic

1.5%1.4%

0.6%

0.2%

Impaired Loans Volumes% of Credit Portfolio*

Page 11: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

11

Baltics – macro developmentLengthy recession in Estonia and Latvia; negative growth both in 2008 and 2009Weak growth in less overheated Lithuanian economyDomestic demand remains depressedIncreased exchange rate risk in Estonia and LatviaLarge imbalances will dampen:– Wage inflation declines

sharply – Large current account deficits

will shrink, but still high 2010

-5

0

5

10

15

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f)

2009(f)

2010(f)

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

GDP, %

Retail sales, Y-o-Y %

-20-10

010203040

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Page 12: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

12

17 22 22 18 21 2234 39 458 8 8

4 5 6

813

15

1419 20

1014 14

13

2226

564441

34

525041

89

76

Dec'06

Dec'07

Sep '08 Dec'06

Dec'07

Sep '08 Dec'06

Dec'07

Sep '08

Total

Banks

PublicAdministrationHouseholds

PropertyManagementCorporate

SEB Estonia SEB Latvia SEB Lithuania

Growth rates in local currency+38% +17% +40% +18% +47% +30%

2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007

+1%

2008 YTD

+4% +13% 2008 YTD 2008 YTD

Baltic countries – Credit exposure On and off balance, SEK bn

Page 13: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

13

30%15%

33%

68%83%

63%

USD

EUR

Local

22% 13%38%

78% 85%

62%USD

EUR

Local

Cor

pora

teH

ouse

hold

sBaltics – currency profileLending & Leasing portfolio

SEB Estonia SEB Latvia SEB Lithuania

Page 14: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

14

-50

50

150

250

350

Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08

Specific Collective

Provisioning to build up reservesSEK m

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1,5%

2,0%

mar-07 jun-07 sep-07 dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Impaired loans in SEB’s portfolioPer cent

Baltics - asset quality

Managed credit growth slowdownTargeted credit portfolio reviewsJoint local and head-office work-out teamEarly conservative provisioning

Page 15: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

15

Profit before credit lossesSEK m

Baltics - profit development

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

2005 2006 2007 Jan-Sep2008

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Net credit lossesSEK m

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

2005 2006 2007 Jan-Sep2008

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Profit after credit lossesSEK m

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

2005 2006 2007 Jan-Sep2008

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Page 16: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

16

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Baltics - customer growthQ1 2005 – Q3 2008

Corporate customerPrivate customer

Sweden

Number of customers Product penetration

Baltics

Page 17: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

17

Capitalisation and RWA growth

Tier 1 capital ratioPer cent

0%

5%

10%

15%

september 2008

Without transition rules

With transition rules

4% SwedishFSA's

minimum rules

6% Stabilitypackage

Risk-weighted assetsSEK bn

0

300

600

900

1,200

Q12007

Q22007

Q32007

Q42007

Q12008

Q22008

Q32008

Basel I Basel II

Tier 1 9,9 %

Tier 1 8,1 %

Page 18: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

18

Basel II Tier 1 ratios – Nordic banks

Notes:1 RWA adjusted for life insurance impact (life insurance assets risk weighted under statutory disclosure) to allow comparison2 According to guidance on RWA under full Basel II implementation and Vital RWA given on Q3 conference call3 Including capital rasing announced 27 October 20084 Stated figure includes a 50% deduction of insurance capital from tier 1 capital. Adjusted for this deduction, Danske’s Tier 1 ratio is 10.3%5 Assuming 1%-point improvement of core capital ratio (excluding hybrid and insurance capital) under full implementation, RWA only disclosed including Basel II

transition rule adjustment

1.5

1.7

0.8

1.01.3

(1.8) (2.0)(1.2) (0.9)

(3.3)(2.2)

7.0 7.3

9.2

6.78.1

9.2

1.4 0.9

0.5

0.6

0.91.2

(4.0)

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

SEB DnB NOR Danske Bank Nordea SHB Swedbank

Core capital ratio (excl. 100% of insurance and capital floors) Impact of insurance capital (100%)Impact of hybrid capital Impact of Basel II capital floor (as per Q3 08)

7.3

8.2

7.0

8.1 6.7

10.1

1

25

Last reported Basel II tier 1 ratios, including capital floors

10.5

9.4

7.9

9.9 10.0

11.5

3

4

8.29.2

7.28.4 9.09.8

2

5

Last reported Basel II tier 1 ratios, excluding capital floors

Source: UBS

Page 19: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

19

Basel II Tier 1 ratios – British banks

Source: UBS

6.7 7.7 6.5 7.6 7.6

1.0 2.60.9

1.2 1.30.9

1.4

1.4 1.2

3.11.7

0.22.3

1.7

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

HSBC HBOS Lloyds TSB RBS Barclays

Core capital (excluding insurance capital) Impact of insurance capital (100%)Impact of preference shares Impact of hybrid

8.7

12.1 12.1 12.711.3

6.75.1 3.6 4.5 5.0

2.6

0.21.0 2.1

1.2 1.3 0.91.41.0

1.21.4 1.40.8

0.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

HSBC HBOS Lloyds TSB RBS Barclays

Core capital (excluding insurance capital) Impact of insurance capital (100%)Impact of preference shares Impact of hybrid

8.7 8.6 8.6 8.67.9

Pre announced capital increase (Q2 2008)

Post announced capital increase (Q2 2008)1

Notes:1 Capital raisings post 30 June 2008,

HSBC: 0, HBOS: £8.5bn of ordinary shares, £3.0bn of preference shares, Lloyds TSB: £4.5 of ordinary shares, £1.0bn of preference shares Barclays: £5.1bn of ordinary shares, £3.0bn of preference shares, RBS: £15.0bn of ordinary shares, £5.0bn of preference shares

2 RWA adjusted for life insurance impact (life insurance assets risk weighted under statutory disclosure) to allow comparison

2

2

7.7 6.5

6.2

5.7

Stated Basel II tier 1 ratios as per 30/06/2008, including capital floors

7.79.1 9.1 8.8

Page 20: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

20

Swedish stability package -Guarantee pricing

Unsecured <1 year: 50bpsUnsecured >1 year: 50bps+28bps (CDS) = 78bpsCovered bonds: 25bps+ ~10bps (AAA-CDS) = ~35bps

Maximum scope: for each bank: its outstanding debt maturing until April 30th, 2009; for the system: SEK 1,500bn

Participating banks to pay a risk-based fee for the guarantee; Fee level: somewhere between today's funding costs in the market and the notional funding costs under normal market circumstances

Allowed instruments: senior term debt with maturities between 3 months and 5 years, including covered bonds!

Page 21: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

21

Going forward

● Holistic balance sheet management

● Robust capital and good liquidity

● Resilient customer business

● Lower absolute costs

Page 22: ISEB nvestor Dinner Presentation Nov 2008

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