Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
PROJECT REPORT ON
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF BANKING SECTOR
UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF
CA Dr. S P DAS
SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT OF
MASTER OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
BY
LESLIE SEQUEIRA
STUDENT ID NO – 2014160234
MMS-IV
YEAR 2014-2016
Don Bosco Institute of Management and Research Kurla(west), MUMBAI – 400070
PROJECT REPORT ON
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF BANKING SECTOR
UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF
CA Dr. S P DAS
SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT OF
MASTER OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
BY
LESLIE SEQUEIRA
STUDENT ID NO – 2014160234
MMS-IV
YEAR 2014-2016
Don Bosco Institute of Management and Research Kurla west, MUMBAI – 400070
Certificate
This is to certify that the project work titled “FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
OF BANKING SECTOR” is a final project work carried out by Mr. Leslie
Sequeira
I further certify that the said work has not been submitted in the part or in full,
to any other University.
Date: 31st March 2016
___________ ____________________
Dr. /Prof.(Project Guide name) Dr. S. Ramachandran
Project Guide Dean,
(Don Bosco Institute of Management and Research)
DECLARATION
I, Mr Leslie Sequeira, student of Don Bosco Institute of Management and
Research of MMS IV hereby declare that I have completed the final project on
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF BANKING SECTOR in the Academic
year 2014-2016. The information submitted is true & original to the best of my
knowledge.
LESLIE SEQUEIRA
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
At the outset of this project, I would like to express my profound gratitude to a
few people without whose help, completion of this project would not have been
possible.
I am very grateful to Dr. S. Ramachandran, Dean, Prof. Conrad Saldanha,
Principal Advisor, Fr. Mario Vaz, Executive Director of Don Bosco Institute
of Management and Research, for giving me the opportunity to do this project.
I would also like to thank CA. Dr. S P Das for being an excellent mentor and
helping me whenever I approached him/her.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fundamental Analysis involves examining the economic, financial and other qualitative and
quantitative factors related to a security in order to determine its intrinsic value. If a
company's stock is trading above the intrinsic value or fair value, then the stock is
overvalued. If a company's stock is trading below the intrinsic value, then the stock is
undervalued. It attempts to study everything that can affect the security's value, including
macroeconomic factors (like the overall economy and industry conditions) and individually
specific factors (like the financial condition and management of companies).
Fundamental analysis, which is also known as quantitative analysis, involves delving into a
company’s financial statements (such as profit and loss account and balance sheet) in order
to study various financial indicators (such as revenues, earnings, liabilities, expenses and
assets.
The main purpose of the report is to understand and interpret the factors affecting the
banking sector in India.
INDEX
SR. NO. CONTENT PAGE NO.
1 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 1
2. INTRODUCTION TO BANKING SECTOR
2
3. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 8
4. DATA COLLECTION 10
5 DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
13
6 FINDINGS 49
7 RECOMMENDATION 51
8 CONCLUSION 53
9 BIBLIOGRAPHY 54
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
DATA COLLECTION
The data collected was secondary in nature.
METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION
Data was collected primarily through moneycontrol.com, RBI websites and other
related websites.
OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1. To study the changes in the banking system over the years.
2. To evaluate the current situation in the banking industry by fundamental analysis.
3. Comparative study of banking companies.
4. To determine the future direction of the stocks by technical analysis.
LIMITATIONS1. Limited study done due to time constraint on the project.
2. For the fundamental analysis, only 4 banks were analysed. All banks are not
included.
3. Dynamic market leads to inaccurate data.
4. The project study is restricted to banking sector used in India only.
Page | 1
INTRODUCTION
History of Banking in India
The banking sector is the most important sector as it helps to develop the vital sectors
of the economy. The RBI set up in 1935 is the chief bank which was founded to
control the monetary policy in India. It took the responsibility of regulating the
Indian banking sector from 1935. After India’s independence RBI was nationalized
and given broader powers. This was an important landmark in the Indian Banking
system. The RBI in general regulated and supervised the major financial system in
India. Before the nationalization of the bank except for State bank of India all the
banks were privately controlled. By then the Indian Banking sector had grown in
strength and large number of people were employed. In 1969, 14 commercial banks
have been nationalized followed by 6 more banks in the year 1980. With the second
phase of nationalization the Indian government controlled approximately 91% of the
banking sector. The total number of banks however came down to 19 with the merger
of New Bank of India with Punjab National Bank.
As the banking sector expanded and became increasingly complex due to innovation
and technological up gradations. The banks with time had to change the way they
functioned by offering new services to the customers. The rapid technological
advancement has reduced the transaction costs. Despite the progress that the banks
have made post the 1991 liberalization there has been a decline in productivity and
the profits of the banks have reduced. Therefore the government of India set up the
Narasimham Committee to look into the problems and recommend measures to
improve the health of the financial system.
Currently the banking industry has entered into a new era with the era of
technological advancements and other challenges. Branches and ATM’s will need to
grow to serve the bankable population. Banks will also have to adopt new
technologies like CRM which will automate certain systems. In additions to this they
also need to understand and adopt new technologies like cloud computing.
For the past three decades India's banking system has several outstanding
achievements to its credit. The most striking is its extensive reach. It is no longer
confined to only metropolitans or cosmopolitans in India. In fact, Indian banking
Page | 2
system has reached even to the remote corners of the country. This is one of the main
reasons of India's growth process.
The government's regular policy for Indian bank since 1969 has paid rich dividends with the nationalization of 14 major private banks of India.
The first bank in India, though conservative, was established in 1786. From 1786 till today, the journey of Indian Banking System can be segregated into three distinct phases. They are as mentioned below:
• Early phase from 1786 to 1969 of Indian Banks
• Nationalization of Indian Banks and up to 1991 prior to Indian banking sector
Reforms.
• New phase of Indian Banking System with the advent of Indian Financial &
Banking Sector Reforms after 1991.
Phase I
The General Bank of India was set up in the year 1786. Next came Bank of
Hindustan and Bengal Bank. The East India Company established Bank of Bengal
(1809), Bank of Bombay (1840) and Bank of Madras (1843) as independent units
and called it Presidency Banks. These three banks were amalgamated in 1920 and
Imperial Bank of India was established which started as private shareholders banks,
mostly European shareholders.
In 1865 Allahabad Bank was established and first time exclusively by Indians,
Punjab National Bank Ltd. was set up in 1894 with headquarters at Lahore. Between
1906 and 1913, Bank of India, Central Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank,
Indian Bank, and Bank of Mysore were set up. Reserve Bank of India came in 1935.
During the first phase the growth was very slow and banks also experienced periodic
failures between 1913 and 1948. There were approximately 1100 banks, mostly
small. To streamline the functioning and activities of commercial banks, the
Government of India came up with The Banking Companies Act, 1949 which was
later changed to Banking Regulation Act 1949 as per amending Act of 1965. Reserve
Bank of India was vested with extensive powers for the supervision of banking in
Page | 3
India as the Central Banking Authority.
During those days public had lesser confidence in the banks. As an aftermath deposit
mobilisation was slow. Abreast of it the savings bank facility provided by the Postal
department was comparatively safer. Moreover, funds were largely given to traders.
Phase II
Government took major steps in this Indian Banking Sector Reform after
independence. In 1955, it nationalized Imperial Bank of India with extensive banking
facilities on a large scale especially in rural and semi-urban areas. It formed State
Bank of India to act as the principal agent of RBI and to handle banking transactions
of the Union and State Governments all over the country.
Seven banks forming subsidiary of State Bank of India was nationalized in 1960 on
19th July, 1969, major process of nationalization was carried out. It was the effort of
the then Prime Minister of India, Mrs. Indira Gandhi. 14 major commercial banks in
the country were nationalized.
Second phase of nationalization Indian Banking Sector Reform was carried out in
1980 with seven more banks. This step brought 80% of the banking segment in India
under Government ownership.
The following are the steps taken by the Government of India to Regulate Banking
Institutions in the Country:
1949 : Enactment of Banking Regulation Act.
1955 :Nationalisation of State Bank of India.
1959 :Nationalisation of SBI subsidiaries.
1961 : Insurance cover extended to deposits.
1969 :Nationalisation of 14 major banks.
1971 : Creation of credit guarantee corporation.
1975 : Creation of regional rural banks.
Page | 4
1980 :Nationalisation of seven banks with deposits over 200 crore.
After the nationalization of banks, the branches of the public sector bank India rose
to approximately 800% in deposits and advances took a huge jump by 11,000%.
Banking in the sunshine of Government ownership gave the public implicit faith and
immense confidence about the sustainability of these institutions.
Phase III
This phase has introduced many more products and facilities in the banking sector in
its reforms measure. In 1991, under the chairmanship of M Narasimham, a
committee was set up by his name which worked for the liberalisation of banking
practices.
The country is flooded with foreign banks and their ATM stations. Efforts are being
put to give a satisfactory service to customers. Phone banking and net banking is
introduced. The entire system became more convenient and swift.
The financial system of India has shown a great deal of resilience. It is sheltered from
any crisis triggered by any external macroeconomics shock as other East Asian
Countries suffered. This is all due to a flexible exchange rate regime, the foreign
reserves are high, the capital account is not yet fully convertible, and banks and their
customers have limited foreign exchange exposure.
Page | 5
Organizational Structure of Banks in India:
In India banks are classified in various categories according to differ rent criteria.
The following charts indicate the banking structure
Page | 6
Reserve Bank of India
Commercial Banks Co-operative Banks Development Banks
Nationalized Private Short-term credit
Long-term credit
Agricultural Credit
Urban Credit
EXIM Industrial Agricultural
CURRENT TRENDS
Some of the biggest challenges that the banking system face are inflation, muted
growth, downsizing, high NPA’s and also asset restructuring. When it comes to
NPA’s it is the private banks that through mergers and acquisitions consolidate rather
than the PSB’S. As on the 31st December 2015 the gross NPA’s of the banks stands
at about Rs 393035 crore.
Also one of the problems that is persistent in the banking sector is the high NPA’s
that exist in the PSB’s due to various reasons like lack of modern technology, quality
man force. But in terms of the reach, access to low deposits the private players
cannot match up to the PSB. This is exactly where the private players enter the route
of M&A. Also apart from this factor the private players also have been the
frontrunners when it comes to innovative banking like internet banking, phone
banking, mobile banking which is fast catching up with the public ATM’S and
various other services.
The FDI has paved the way in the banking sector. A MNC bank or its subsidiary
regulated by the host country can invest up to 100% in the Indian Private Sector. For
foreign investors the cap is set at 74%. For the PSB the ceiling has been set at
20%.for nationalized banks as well as SBI and its associates. For others the ceiling is
49%.
A new concept is the emerging trend of universal banking in the banking sector.
Universal banking is offering all banking services under one roof. This trend has
come up in lieu of the lowering profit margin on the lending business. Some of the
particular services that come under the purview of universal banking apart from the
commercial bank functions are Merchant Banking, Mutual Funds, Factoring, Credit
cards, Insurance, Loans etc. ICICI Bank is a consequence of this trend.
Priority Sector lending was introduced with a view to help the weaker sectors that
impact large sections of the population. Sectors like agriculture, small scale
industries and others were basically neglected due to risk factor and urban bias. In
Page | 7
April 2015 the RBI has revamped PSL norms. Now even loans given to SME’s,
renewable energy and social infrastructure, will come under the purview of PSL.
A large section of the Indian population still does not have any bank accounts. Due to
poverty, the lower income groups don’t have access to the various financial products
and services. There was a view that banking sector tends to exclude a huge section of
populations particularly the under privileged. The financial inclusion was first
included in the Indian context in April 2005. Providing financial services to the low
income groups at nominal costs comes under financial inclusion. Under the
government introduced PMJDY an individual can avail basic banking account with
OD facility of Rs 5000 and other. As of 20th February, 2016 a total of over 20 crore
accounts were opened with around Rs 32378 crores deposited under the scheme.
Page | 8
Role of Banks:
Banks play a positive role in economic development of a country as repositories of community’s savings and as purveyors of credit. Indian Banking has aided the economic development during the last fifty years in an effective way. The banking sector has shown a remarkable responsiveness to the needs of planned economy. It has brought about a considerable progress in its efforts at deposit mobilization and has taken a number of measures in the recent past for accelerating the rate of growth of deposits. As recourse to this, the commercial banks opened branches in urban, semi-urban and rural areas and have introduced a number of attractive schemes to foster economic development.In a way, commercial banks have emerged as key financial agencies for rapid economic development.
By pooling the savings together, banks can make available funds to specialized institutions which finance different sectors of the economy, needing capital for various purposes, risks and durations. By contributing to government securities, bonds and debentures of term-lending institutions in the fields of agriculture, industries and now housing, banks are also providing these institutions with an access to the common pool of savings mobilized by them, to that extent relieving them of the responsibility of directly approaching the saver. This intermediation role of banks is particularly important in the early stages of economic development and financial specification.
Mobilization of resources forms an integral part of the development process in India. In this process of mobilization, banks are at a great advantage, chiefly because of their network of branches in the country. And banks have to place considerable reliance on the mobilization of deposits from the public to finance development programmes. Further, deposit mobilization by banks in India acquired greater significance in their new role in economic development. Commercial banks provide short-term and medium-term financial assistance.
Page | 9
FACTORS AFFECTING SHARE PRICES OF BANKING SECTOR
There are several numbers of factors which affect the share prices. They can be
broadly classified into two:
• INTERNAL FACTORS
• EXTERNAL FACTORS
INTERNAL FACTORS:
As the name suggests, Internal Factors are those which affect the share prices
internally, i.e. they are internal to the company or more specifically bank. Some of
the major internal factors that affect the share prices of a bank are as follows:
Earnings of the company:
How much Profit a company earns acts as a significant factor in price
movements.Investors invest money in the companies who earn well and in turn give
good return on investment. Thus, a wealthy and a profitable company have good
investors and thus have positive price movements. Price/Earnings Ratio also gives us
idea about the same.
Page | 10
Market capitalization:
Generally we commit one mistake that we guess the company’s worth from the price
of its stock. It is the market capitalization of the company, rather than the stock price,
that is more important when it comes to determining the worth of the company. A
company or bank with high Market Capitalization turns out to be more popular
among investors. For example, HDFC BANK, ICICI BANK and SBI are more
popular among investors than other banks because they have huge market share and
market capitalization. As market capitalization increases, the share price tends to
increase and as market capitalization decreases, the share price tends to decrease
Price/earnings ratio:
Price/Earnings ratio or the P/E ratio gives us a fair idea of how a company's share
price compares to its earnings. If the price of the share is too much lower than the
earning of the company, the stock is undervalued and it has the potential to rise in the
near future. On the other hand, if the price is way too much higher than the actual
earning of the company and then the stock is said to overvalued and the price can fall
at any point
Internal affairs of the company:
Any happening inside the company or any internal news does affect its share price.
For example any key person moving out of the company, acquisition or takeover or
merger news, share split, employee strike and any other thing internal to the affairs of
the bank affects the share price. A positive note from the internal affairs takes the
price to new highs and a negative does vice versa.
Interest rates:
Interest rates play a major role in determining stock market trends. Interest rates are
determined by the demand for capital – pushes them up and normally indicates that
Page | 11
the economy is thriving and that shares probably expensive. Low interest indicate
low demand for capital, thus liquidity builds up on the economy, driving share price
down. Other interest rates like that of on Deposits and Borrowings also have impact
on share prices.
Other factors:
Other factors like Growth of the company, figures of deposits, advances, balance
sheet, Profit and Loss Account, etc. Also affect the share prices drastically.
EXTERNAL FACTORS:
After studying the internal factors, let’s take a look at some External Factors which
affect the Share Prices.
Sentiments:
Investor sentiment is almost impossible to predict and can be infuriating if, for
example, you have bought shares in a company that you think is a good "buy‟ but the
price remains flat. Investor sentiment is influenced by a wide variety of factors.
Investor sentiment can lead to irrational buying or selling of shares and result in bull
and bear markets In the technology boom of the late 1990s, for example, investors
paid extremely high prices for shares and ignored traditional valuation measures,
such as P/E ratios. This carried on until 2000 when investors belatedly realized these
shares has risen too far and resulted in a three year bear market in shares. Thus,
Sentiments of investors affect the share prices a lot and this is something
unpredictable and immeasurable factor, but still the most important one.
Company news and other news:
Page | 12
The way investors interpret news coming out of companies is also a major influence
on share prices. For example, a company puts out a warning that business conditions
are tough, shares will often drop in value. Companies put out a great deal of news
and most of the major announcements are covered by the financial press. Also any
other news or speculation about factors like change in Repo Rate, Cash Reserve
Ratio, Reverse Repo Rate, any change or likely change in the policies of government
or RBI or SEBI, any new guidelines issued by the concerned authority, etc. affect the
price of the share. A positive news in any of these respects leads to a rise in price and
a negative takes it to the other side. Thus, news in any respect is undoubtedly a huge
factor when it comes to stock price.
Demand and supply:
This fundamental rule of economics holds good for the equity market as well. The
price is directly affected by the trend of stock market trading. When more people are
buying a certain stock, the price of that stock increases and when more people are
selling the stock, the price of that particular stock falls. Now it is difficult to predict
the trend. Thus, we should be very careful while dealing in stocks as buying or
selling pressure may lead to steep rise or fall in price of the shares.
Analysts’ reports:
. Analysts‟ reports are produced primarily by investment banks for professional
investors, although some stockbrokers will make their research available to private
investors. We may find summaries of some reports published on financial news
websites or in newspapers and magazines.. We should remember that the
recommendation an analyst puts on a company will affect its share price very quickly
and can become irrelevant within hours. The reports usually contain a great deal of
useful information on the company and how its business is developing. They also
often look at how the company rates against its competitors.
The economy:
The health of the global economy has a fundamental influence on share prices
because it is ultimately responsible for driving company profits. Broadly speaking, if
the economy is growing, company profits improve and shares will become more
Page | 13
highly valued. If the economy is weakening, company profits will fall and share
prices will go down.
When looking at economic data, we need to think not only how the wider economy
will be affected but whether certain areas will be more affected than others. A rise in
interest rates is, for example, often bad news for house builders as people feel less
confident about taking on debt. Retailers are often badly affected too as people spend
less. Pharmaceutical companies are, however, usually unaffected as people’s demand
for drugs is not influenced by the state of the economy. Companies whose profits are
closely tied to the health of the economy are known as “cyclical” stocks. Those
businesses that aren’t too affected by the economy are called “defensive” stocks. If
economic conditions deteriorate you will often see investors shift from cyclical
stocks to defensives. Thus, the economic health of an Economy affects the Share
Prices.
Technical influences:
Share prices can rise and fall for a variety of technical reasons that may have nothing
to do with the actual outlook for an individual company or the outlook for the
market. It is, for example, a common occurrence for share prices to drop back after a
strong rally. This happens because investors take profits on some of the shares that
have risen in value, protecting their gains just in case the shares start to slip back.
Investors often refer to this as market consolidation. Share prices can also be affected
by investors who use technical analysis to drive their investment techniques.
OTHER FACTORS:
Some other factors which influence share prices are as follows:
Change in rates by RBI:
Looking at the changing scenario, RBI keeps on changing rates like Repo Rate,
Reverse Repo Rate and Cash Reserve Ratio. These rates have a direct relation with
Page | 14
the Bank’s performance and in turn the share prices are linked with Bank’s
Performance. Thus, a change in these rates or even a speculation of change in these
rates affects share prices.
Global changes:
Any change in the global economy or in other words global changes also affects
Indian economy. Thus, the performance of an economy and its banks is affected by
these global changes. For example: The recession was first observed in the USA and
later on it caught its lead in other countries too. When it entered India, the share
market crashed literally. So, a careful and logical investor always keeps this in mind
that what global changes affect the market and thus leads to rise or fall in share
prices.
Change in Government Policies:
Keeping in mind the progress and well wishes about the country, the government
takes desired steps and keeps on reviewing its policies, rules and regulations and
procedures. A change in FDI and FII inflow restrictions, entry exit barriers for
foreign banks in India, EXIM regulations, change in Basel Norms, etc form part of
important government policies. Thus, a change in these policies affects the market
scenario. For example: if government allows entry of foreign Banks in India, then the
competition would rise and it might happen that those foreign Banks may outperform
and leave our own banks far behind. Then in this case, the investors would be
interested in investing in those foreign Banks and a government would never like that
the funds are invested in some foreign banks rather than our own banks. Thus, some
restriction would follow and this will definitely affect the share prices.
Page | 15
INTRODUCTION TO FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Fundamental Analysis involves examining the economic, financial and other
qualitative and quantitative factors related to a security in order to determine its
intrinsic value.
It attempts to study everything that can affect the security's value, including
macroeconomic factors (like the overall economy and industry conditions) and
individually specific factors (like the financial condition and management of
companies).
Fundamental analysis, which is also known as quantitative analysis, involves delving
into a company’s financial statements (such as profit and loss account and balance
Page | 16
sheet) in order to study various financial indicators (such as revenues, earnings,
liabilities, expenses and assets). Such analysis is usually carried out by analysts,
brokers and savvy investors.
Many analysts and investors focus on a single number--net income (or earnings)--to
evaluate performance. When investors attempt to forecast the market value of a firm,
they frequently rely on earnings. Many institutional investors, analysts and
regulators believe earnings are not as relevant as they once were.
Two Approaches of fundamental analysis
While carrying out fundamental analysis, investors can use either of the following
approaches:
1 .Top-down approach: In this approach, an analyst investigates both international
and national economic indicators, such as GDP growth rates, energy prices, inflation
and interest rates. The search for the best security then trickles down to the analysis
of total sales, price levels and foreign competition in a sector in order to identify the
best business in the sector.
2. Bottom-up approach: In this approach, an analyst starts the search with specific
businesses, irrespective of their industry/region
How Does fundamental analysis works ?
Fundamental analysis is carried out with the aim of predicting the future performance
of a company. It is based on the theory that the market price of a security tends to
move towards its 'real value' or 'intrinsic value.' Thus, the intrinsic value of a security
being higher than the security’s market value represents a time to buy. If the value of
the security is lower than its market price, investors should sell it.
The steps involved in fundamental analysis are:
1. Macroeconomic analysis, which involves considering currencies, commodities and
indices.
Page | 17
2. Industry sector analysis, which involves the analysis of companies that are a part
of the sector.
3. Situational analysis of a company.
4. Financial analysis of the company.
5. Valuation
The valuation of any security is done through the discounted cash flow (DCF) model,
which takes into consideration:
1. Dividends received by investors
2. Earnings or cash flows of a company
3. Debt, which is calculated by using the debt to equity ratio and the current ratio
(current assets/current liabilities)
Benefits of fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis helps in:
1. Identifying the intrinsic value of a security.
2. Identifying long-term investment opportunities, since it involves real-time data.
Drawbacks of fundamental analysis
The drawbacks of fundamental analysis are:
• Too many economic indicators and extensive macroeconomic data can
confuse novice investors.
• The same set of information on macroeconomic indicators can have varied
effects on the same currencies at different times.It is beneficial only for long-
term investments
Fundamental Analysis Tools
Page | 18
These are the most popular tools of fundamental analysis.
(i) Earnings per Share – EPS
(ii) Price to Earnings Ratio – P/E
(iii) Price to Book – P/B
(iv) Dividend Payout Ratio
(v) Book Value
(vi) Return on Equity
Ratio analysis
Financial ratios are tools for interpreting financial statements to provide a basis for
valuing securities and appraising financial and management performance.
A good financial analyst will build in financial ratio calculations extensively in a
financial modelling exercise to enable robust analysis. Financial ratios allow a
financial analyst to:
• Standardize information from financial statements across multiple financial
years to allow comparison of a firm’s performance over time in a financial
model.
• Standardize information from financial statements from different companies
to allow an apples to apples comparison between firms of differing size in a
financial model.
• Measure key relationships by relating inputs (costs) with outputs (benefits)
and facilitates comparison of these relationships over time and across firms in
a financial model.
In general, there are 4 kinds of financial ratios that a financial analyst will use most
frequently, these are:
• Performance ratios
• Working capital ratios
Page | 19
• Liquidity ratios
• Solvency ratios
These 4 financial ratios allow a good financial analyst to quickly and efficiently
address the following questions or concerns:
Performance ratios
• What return is the company making on its capital investment?
• What are its profit margins?
Working capital ratios
• How quickly are debts paid?
• How many times is inventory turned?
Liquidity ratios
• Can the company continue to pay its liabilities and debts?
Solvency ratios (Longer term)
• What is the level of debt in relation to other assets and to equity?
• Is the level of interest payable out of profits?
Technical analysis is the practice of anticipating price changes of a financial
instrument by analyzing prior price changes and looking for patterns and
relationships in price history.
Since all the investors in the stock market want to make the maximum profits
possible, they just cannot afford to ignore either fundamental or technical analysis.
The price of a security represents a consensus. It is the price at which one person
agrees to buy and another agrees to sell. The price at which an investor is willing to
buy or sell depends primarily on his expectations. If he expects the security's price to
rise, he will buy it; if the investor expects the price to fall, he will sell it. These
simple statements are the cause of a major challenge in forecasting security prices,
Page | 20
because they refer to human expectations. As we all know firsthand, humans
expectations are neither easily quantifiable nor predictable.
If prices are based on investor expectations, then knowing what a security should sell
for (i.e., fundamental analysis) becomes less important than knowing what other
investors expect it to sell for. That's not to say that knowing what a security should
sell for isn't important--it is. But there is usually a fairly strong consensus of a stock's
future earnings that the average investor cannot disprove.
DATA COLLECTION
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The fundamental analysis of the banking sector deals with:
Page | 21
• The effect of economy on the banking sector in the economic analysis,
• The banking industry as a whole in industrial analysis,
• The analysis of four selected banking companies in company analysis.
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
GDP
Economic analysis deals with forces operating in the economy which influences the
banking sector. Any economy is best described by its GDP. Indian economy is the
second fastest growing economy in the world.
The global financial system is still far away from a full recovery on account of a
slowdown in the US economy, the soft landing in China and the Euro debt crisis. The
Indian banking sector has been relatively well shielded by the central bank and has
managed to sail through most of the crisis. But, currently in light of slowing domestic
GDP growth, persistent inflation, asset quality concerns and elevated interest rates,
the investment cycle has been wavering in the country.
The cost of borrowings was higher on account of the various monetary tightening
measures undertaken by the central bank. People preferred to park their funds in
higher yielding fixed deposits rather than current or savings account (CASA). CASA
accretion slowed for most banks which led to a higher cost of funds. The savings
bank account rate was deregulated by the RBI, however most banks continue to hold
the rate at 4%.
Apart from streamlining their processes through technology initiatives such as
ATMs, telephone banking, online banking and web based products, banks also
resorted to cross selling of financial products such as credit cards, mutual funds and
insurance policies to augment their fee based income. They are also looking at
various financial inclusion initiatives in order to spread the use of financial services
among India’s large unbanked population.
INDUSTRIAL ANALYSIS
Page | 22
Banks in India can be categorized into non-scheduled banks and scheduled banks.
Scheduled banks constitute of commercial banks and co-operative banks. There are
62 scheduled commercial banks. Among these, 25 banks are public sector banks in
which government has the major stake. There are 24 private and 13 foreign sector
banks operating in India. The commercial banks in India have an extensive network
of branches all across the country.
Porter’s five forces analysis:
1. Threat of New Entrants. The average person can't come along and start up a
bank, but there are services, such as internet bill payment, on which entrepreneurs
can capitalize. Banks fear of being squeezed out of the payments business, because it
is a good source of fee-based revenue. Another trend that poses a threat is companies
offering other financial services.
2.Power of Suppliers. The suppliers of capital might not pose a big threat, but the
threat of suppliers luring away human capital does. If a talented individual is working
in a smaller regional bank, there is the chance that person will be enticed away by
bigger banks, investment firms, etc.
3. Power of Buyers. The individual doesn't pose much of a threat to the banking
industry, but one major factor affecting the power of buyers is relatively high
switching costs. If a person has a mortgage, car loan, credit card, checking account
and mutual funds with one particular bank, it can be extremely tough for that person
to switch to another bank. In an attempt to lure in customers, banks try to lower the
price of switching, but many people would still rather stick with their current bank.
On the other hand, large corporate clients have banks wrapped around their little
fingers. Financial institutions - by offering better exchange rates, more services, and
exposure to foreign capital markets - work extremely hard to get high-margin
corporate clients.
4. Availability of Substitutes. There are plenty of substitutes in the banking
industry. Banks offer a suite of services over and above taking deposits and lending
money, but whether it is insurance, mutual funds or fixed income securities, chances
are there is a non-banking financial services company that can offer similar services.
Page | 23
On the lending side of the business, banks are seeing competition rise from
unconventional companies.
5. Competitive Rivalry. The banking industry is highly competitive. The financial
services industry has been around for hundreds of years and just about everyone who
needs banking services already has them. Because of this, banks must attempt to lure
clients away from competitor banks. They do this by offering lower financing,
preferred rates and investment services. The banking sector is in a race to see who
can offer both the best and fastest services, but this also causes banks to experience a
lower ROA.. Larger banks would prefer to take over or merge with another bank
rather than spend the money to market and advertise to people.
REACH
Page | 24
Rural Semi-Urban Urban Metropolitan
Reach 49181 35259 24608 21650
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
No . of Branches
Reach
Page | 25
India may be one of the most populous countries on earth, but a small proportion of its population has access to a bank branch. As the case for financial inclusion grows, lenders are clamouring to take advantage of what has been described as 'the largest banking opportunity in the world'.
Findings
By the end of December 2015, near about 49181 banks reach rural areas, 35259 in semi urban areas, 24608 in urban area and 21650 banks in metropolitan area. Still large population of the country is still left to be covered by the banking sector.
Page | 26
GROWTH
The figure shows the year on year increase of banks in India. The banks included are; All Private and public sector banks.
Findings
The figure clearly depicts the phenomenal growth rate that banking industry has achieved over the years. Growth rate shows that Banking Industry is still in its growth phase of life cycle in India. It is opposed to what the general perception of the people had about Indian Banking Industry to be in mature phase with very little opportunity of growth.
Page | 27
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Rural 33683 36356 38451 43641 48033
Semi-Urban 22843 25797 27822 30926 33523
Urban 17490 18781 20127 21783 23522
Metropolitan 16247 17396 18247 19472 20785
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
No. of BranchesGrowth
COMPANY ANALYSIS
For analysis of banking companies, four banks were selected. The selection of these companies was on the basis of the unique shareholding pattern of those companies. The shareholders in a banking company are divided into six groups. These are Indian Promoters, Foreign collaborators, Indian inst/Mutual Fund, Foreign Institutional Investors, Global Depository Receipts (GDRs)/American Depository Receipts (ADRs), free float.
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
Shareholding pattern reveals how the shares of a company are divided among the various bodies that constitute its ownership.
Before buying any stock, we research the company from all possible angles. We take into account the company’s profit and loss, sales and debt, among other things and thus, try to gather as much information as possible about the business into which we are going to invest our hard-earned money so as to avoid nasty surprises in the future.
This is also important because when we buy a share, we are not just buying a piece of paper, but also becoming a part owner of the business to the extent of the shareholding percentage.
Here, I am presenting the shareholding pattern of four banks i.e. State bank of India,
ICICI Bank, Punjab National Bank and HDFC Bank
Page | 28
State Bank of India
INTERPRETATION
The Government of India owns 61.37% equity, 23.47% equity is held by financial institutions, 5.62 % equity is held by the NBFC and Mutual Funds and remaining equity is held by the general public and central government.
Page | 29
Name of the Holder Equity Held (%)
Promoters: Government of India 61.37
General Public 6.45
Others 3.06
NBFC and Mutual Funds 5.62
Financial Institutions 23.47
Central Government 0.03
Promoters: Government of
India, 61.37
General Public, 6.45
Others, 3.06
NBFC and Mutual
Funds, 5.62
Financial Institutions, 23.4
7
Central Government, 0.0
27
ICICI Bank
INTERPRETATION
Foreign Institutions owns 38.15% equity, 15.08% equity is held by financial institutions, 9.34 % equity is held by the Banks and Mutual Funds and remaining equity is held by the general public and central government.
Punjab National Bank
Page | 30
Name of the Holder Equity Held (%)
Foreign Institutions 38.15
Financial Institutions 15.08
Banks/ Mutual Funds 9.34
General Public 5.67
Others 2.99
Central Govt 0.11
Foreign Institutions, 38.1
5
Financial Institutions, 15.0
8
Banks/ Mutual Funds, 9.34
General Public, 5.67
Others, 2.99 Central Govt, 0.11
INTERPRETATION
Indian Promoters owns 62.08% equity whereas 24.34% is held by Financial Institutions. The rest are held by NBFC, Mutual Funds, General Public and Central Government
HDFC Bank
Page | 31
Name of the Holder Equity Held (%)
Indian Promoters 62.08
Financial Institutions 24.34
NBFC and Mutual Funds 6.06
General Public 4.61
Foreign Institutions 1.86
Others 1.03
Central Government 0.02
Name of the Holder Percentage
Promoters 26.47
Financial Institutions 42.87
NBFC and Mutual Funds 10.65
General Public 10.51
Others 9.39
Central Government 0.12
INTERPRETATION
Promoters owns 26.47% equity, 42.87% equity is held by financial institutions, 10.65 % equity is held by the Banks and Mutual Funds and remaining equity is held by the general public and central government.
Comparison of Price of shares (2011-2015)`
Page | 32
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SBI 2959.9 2474.8 2550 2977.85 335.9
PNB 1237 1091 922.1 1135.6 222.2
HDFC 2582.5 705 727 973.85 1127.9
ICICI 1158 1159 1236.9 1796.8 393.3
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Price of shares (Rs)
Highest price of Shares
INTERPRETATION
The Chart shows highest price of the shares of the banks i.e. SBI, PNB, HDFC and
ICICI in last five years. SBI has touched a high of 2959.9 in the year 2011. Except
for HDFC bank the rest of the banks have opted for stock split which makes the stock
more liquid and affordable. HDFC has hit a all time high of around 2582.5 in 2011.
EARNINGS PER SHARE
Page | 33
INTERPRETATION
SBI reported a net profit of Rs 3,692 crore, up 10.2 per cent YoY. Net interest
income, rose just 3.6 per cent YoY to Rs 13,733 crore for the quarter ended June 30,
compared to Rs 13,252 crore reported in the year-ago period. The rise in bad loans
however has reduced the EPS of the bank. The weakness in the domestic markets
have dented the profitability of the banks. Similarly PNB and ICICI have seen their
share prices declined to a great extent.
HDFC on the other hand has its EPS increased since the year 2012 where it was
22.02 to 40.76 in 2015. In the private sector also HDFC is one of the top companies
with the highest market capitalisation rate
PRICE TO EARNING RATIO
Page | 34
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SBI 130 184 210 157 18
PNB 141 154 140 94 17
HDFC 84.4 22.02 28.27 35.34 40.76
ICICI 45 56 72 85 19
0
50
100
150
200
250
Earnings in ₹
INTERPRETATION
The price-earnings ratio (P/E Ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures
its current share price relative to its per-share earnings. The price-earnings ratio can
be calculated as:
Market Value per Share / Earnings per Share
In general, a high P/E suggests that investors are expecting higher earnings growth in
the future compared to companies with a lower P/E. A low P/E can indicate either
that a company may currently be undervalued or that the company is doing
exceptionally well relative to its past trends.
As can be seen from the chart HDFC Bank has one of the highest potential amongst
the banks. SBI, ICICI and PNB have one of the least PE ratios. A sharp fall in the
banking stocks has seen the PE ratio drop to a low. This means that the investors are
willing to pay much less for the banking shares. Most of the frontline banking stocks
has fallen like nine pins after the recent measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India
(RBI) to tighten liquidity to stabilise the Indian rupee.
Page | 35
BOOK VALUE PER SHARE
INTERPRETATION
Book value per common share is a measure used by owners of common shares in a
firm to determine the level of safety associated with each individual share after all
debts are paid accordingly. In simple terms it would be the amount of money that a
holder of a common share would get if a company were to liquidate. The above
figures are adjusted book value per share
A stock may trade below its book value for several reasons, the foremost being lack
of investor confidence in the company's future. If it is widely believed that the
company's performance will deteriorate, its stock will possibly trade at a discount to
its book value. Another reason could be belief that the company is adopting
aggressive accounting policies to bloat its net worth.
Amongst the banks HDFC has the highest book value per share with Rs 252 while
the rest of the banks SBI, ICICI and PNB are trading at 212, 230 and 230
respectively. Book value should not be seen in isolation. At times, due to its cyclical
nature, the whole industry may be going through tough times. Such companies, as a
result, may trade at a discount to their book value
Page | 36
NET PROFIT MARGIN RATIO:
Profit margin ratio
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
STATE BANK OF INDIA
9.05 10.99 11.78 7.98 8.59
ICICI BANK LTD
19.83 19.27 20.77 22.20 22.76
PNB BANK 16.42 13.40 11.33 7.73 6.61
HDFC BANK 19.7 18.93 19.18 20.61 21.07
CHART 1.1 shows the net profit ratio of selected banks which are as follows
INTERPRETATION:
The net profit margin is a good way of comparing companies in the same industry, since such companies are generally subject to similar business conditions. However, the net profit margins are also a good way to compare companies in different industries in order to gauge which industries are relatively more profitable. A higher profit margin indicates a more profitable company that has better control over its costs compared to its competitors. Profit margin. The profit margin ratio, also known
Page | 37
as the operating performance ratio, measures the company’s ability to turn its sales into net income. To evaluate the profit margin, it must be compared to competitors and industry statistics. It is calculated by dividing net income by net sales
STATE BANK OF INDIA: In table 1.1 chart shows increasing trend till 2013 and in 2014 the ratio fell to 7.98 and increased to 8.59 in 2015.ICICI BANK: The ratio has shown a decreasing trend till 2013 and from there on has increased till 2015 PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK : Profit margin has shown a decreasing trend from 16.42 in 2011 to 6.61 in 2015HDFC Bank: It shows increasing trend at increasing rate since 2013
Page | 38
CURRENT RATIO:
TABLE 1.1 OF 4 SELECTED BANKS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015STATE BANK OF INDIA
17.8 15.3 15.8 15.8 1.5
ICICI BANK LTD 26.5 24.9 24 24.1 4.7PNB BANK 15.2 14.8 19.5 10.5 3.7HDFC BANK 19.2 19.2 19.1 18.8 18.8
INTERPRETATION:The part of the earnings not paid to investors is left for investment to provide for
future earnings growth. Investors seeking high current income and limited capital
growth prefer companies with high Dividend payout ratio. However investors
seeking capital growth may prefer lower payout ratio because capital gains are taxed
at a lower rate. High growth firms in early life generally have low or zero payout
ratios. As they mature, they tend to return more of the earnings back to investors
The dividend payout ratio has been in a decreasing trend since 2011 for all banks
except HDFC Bank. This can be attributed to the RBI's decision of clearing the
NPA's by 2017 and also the RBI norms regarding the dividend payout ratio.
Page | 39
DEBT EQUITY RATIO:
TABLE 1.2 OF 4 SELECTED BANKS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
CURRENT RATIO 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015STATE BANK OF INDIA
16.7 14.8 14.6 14 14.2
ICICI BANK LTD 7 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1PNB BANK 15.5 14.6 12.8 13.5 13.5HDFC BANK 8.7 9 9.2 9.4 8.1
INTERPRETATION
A measure of a company's financial leverage calculated by dividing its total liabilities by stockholders' equity, it indicates what proportion of equity and debt the company is using to finance its assets. A high debt/equity ratio generally means that a company has been aggressive in financing its growth with debt. This can result in volatile earnings as a result of the additional interest expense.
The debt equity ratio of the banks has reduced for all the banks. In case of SBI Bank it has increased to 14.2 in the FY 2015. For ICICI and PNB the ratio has remained unchanged since the last year. HDFC has reduced the debt equity ratio from 9.4 in 2014 to 8.1 in 2015.
Page | 40
Net Non Performing Assets (NPA)
INTERPRETATION
NET NPA RATIO 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
STATE BANK OF INDIA
1.6 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.1
ICICI BANK LTD 1.1 0.7 0.8 1 1.6PNB BANK 0.9 1.5 2.4 2.9 4.1HDFC BANK 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
INTERPRETATION
Net Non Performing Assets to total advances of each bank is well within the trigger level of RBI. HDFC Bank being most conservative player in the field is having the lowest value of the ratio. ICICI 's NPA ratio has increased to about 1.6% of the total advances. PNB has amongst the highest ratio of the NPA with about 4.1% in 2015.
Page | 41
FINDINGS
State Bank Of India
• The revenue growth for FY16 and FY17 is expected at 2.8-16%.
• SBI PE ratio is expected to increase to about 10.9 in FY 2016
• The net non-performing assets to net advances ratio is expected to be at 3% in
FY17 which shows the continuous improvement in its assets quality; but, it is
still not up to the mark.
ICICI Bank
• The dividend payout ratio has declined from 24.1% in 2014 to about 4.7% in
2015.
• Net NPA stands at about 1.6% in FY 2015 and this is expected to increase to
1.8% in FY 2016. As cited by the Management, the weakness in global steel cycle and RBI’s contention to recognize and provide stressed assets that led to the substantial deterioration in asset quality.
• EPS has seen a major fall from 154 in 2012 to about 17 in 2015.
• PE ratio of the bank also has seen a drastic decline from 20 in 2011 to about 3
in 2015. Investors however have been advised to buy the share because of it's great potential.
Punjab National Bank
• The revenue growth for FY16 is expected to grow at about 2.11%.
• EPS of the firm has reduced from 84.4 in 2011 to 28.27 in 2013. However
there is a slight improvement from 28.27 in 2013 to 40.76 in 2015
• Amongst the banks compared PNB has one of the highest NPA to net
advance ratio from 2.9 % in 2014 to 4.1 % in 2015. For the quarter ended 31st
December 2015 its Gross NPA stands at about 8.4%. This has occurred due
to the provisioning for bad loans.
Page | 42
HDFC Bank
• HDFC is seemingly performing very well in terms of the ratio compared.
• The dividend payout ratio has been constant at around 18%
• The Bank has increased its book value per share by 43.01% in FY15.
• The non-performing assets to net advances ratio of the bank have been
continuously around 0.3%, which shows its asset quality is very good.
• Profit margin is at an increasing trend from 19.18% in 2013 to about 21.07%
in about 2015
• At a CMP of 1040 it is recommended to buy the share.
Page | 43
SUGGESTIONS
High growth of Indian Economy: One cannot deny that there is a strong link between GDP and the growth of the banking industry. India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world and is set to remain on that path for many years to come. This will be backed by the stellar growth in infrastructure, industry, services and agriculture. The best indicator is the growth in bank credit. For the past 30 years it was 0.49 % of the GDP. Now the same ratio has increased to 0.65 in the last 10 years.
Rising per capita income:
The rising per capita income will drive the growth of retail credit. Indians have a conservative outlook towards credit except for housing and other necessities. However, with an increase in disposable income and increased exposure to a range of products, consumers have shown a higher willingness to take credit, particularly, young customers. Private Banks also have a much higher share of the more profitable mass affluent segment.
Payment Banks:
Eleven payments banks will launch in 2016 and 2017. Higher deposit rates may disrupt the rural, semi-urban deposit market for existing lenders.
Competition for deposits:
The deposit market in India has seen very little change. Most banks have offered a steady 4% on savings deposits even after these rates were deregulated in 2011. Some think payments banks could force a change while others say that payments banks won’t make enough profits so as to offer higher deposit rates
Human Resource Issues:
More and more senior people are retiring thus leaving a gap of experienced professionals on the top. The banks need to continuously enhance the skill levels of their employees so as to remain viable and competitive and to take advantage of new opportunities. The banking personnel, across the cadres need to be suitably trained to acquire necessary skill sets to perform their jobs more efficiently. The biggest challenge is to build capacity at a rate which matches the loss of existing talent and skills to retirement, poaching and resignations.
Page | 44
RECOMMENDATIONS
State Bank of India
• Based on the RBI recommendations of NPA provisioning the shares of PSB
has dropped and will continue to do so in the next quarter.
• Therefore if an investor is looking for a long time horizon it's recommended
that he hold on to it probably for a chance to turnaround.
• In the short term the stock looks weak at Rs 185 which is expected to rise at
235 in the long run.
ICICI Bank
• ICICI is trading at around Rs220 in 2016 from around Rs 359 in 2016.
• The target price is expected to be around Rs 212-219
• Also the recent cut in repo rate by 25 basis points to about 6.5% suggests that
the liquidity in the system will improve. After the provisioning of NPA is
over the worst scenario will be over. Also ICICI is one of the best managed
private sector bank.
• These factors put together makes ICICI share a HOLD for the medium to
longer run.
Punjab National Bank
• PNB is one of the weaker performing stocks amongst the banks compared.
There is a possibility that with more provisioning to come in the coming
quarters the stock will further weaken.
• Like ICICI ,it is recommended that after the NPA provisioning is done and
only after that a decision be taken whether to sell or accumulate the stock.
Page | 45
HDFC Bank
• The bank has recorded a very healthy growth in terms of its operating income
and its interest income
• Also the bank has expanded in various parts of the country with around 600
branches added in the last quarter
• Based on these favourable factors and also backed by a robust asset quality
and wholesale loan book it is recommended to BUY the stock
Page | 46
CONCLUSION
• The economic growth of the country is an apt indicator for the growth of the banking sector. The Indian economy is projected to grow at 7.3% and the country’s banking industry is expected to reflect this growth.
• The RBI will play an important role in maintaining stability in the Indian market with regards to the repo rate which stands at around 6.5%. This means that the lending system will become a bit more cheaper which will provide a boost to the Indian economy. This also acts as a tool to keep inflation in check by reducing money supply in the economy
• There are emerging challenges, which appear in the forms of consolidation, recapitalization, weak banks, and non-performing assets, legal framework etc. needs urgent attention.
• The Indian banking sector has been relatively well shielded by the central bank and has managed to sail through most of the crisis. But, currently in light of slowing domestic GDP growth, persistent inflation, asset quality concerns and elevated interest rates, the investment cycle has been wavering in the country.
Page | 47
BIBLIOGRAPHY
The following articles from internet have been used for the study purpose:
(a) www.nseindia.com (b) www.bseindia.com (c) www.moneycontrol.com(d) www.livemint.com(e) www.rbi.org
Page | 48
