36
http:// www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-france.htm 2017 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF FRANCE Towards more inclusive growth and employment Paris, 14 September 2017 @OECD @OECDeconomy

France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-france.htm

2017 OECD ECONOMIC

SURVEY OF FRANCE

Towards more inclusive growth and employment

Paris, 14 September 2017

@OECD

@OECDeconomy

Page 2: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

• A long-term strategy would help to reduce publicspending and improve its impact on equity

• Fostering an inclusive development of skills and employment

• Improving life in poor neighbourhoods

• Improving the efficiency of the health-care

2

Main messages

Page 3: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Potential growth has slowed

3

Source : OECD (2017), OECD Economic Outlook 101 Database.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Capital per worker Labour input TFP Potential growth

Page 4: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Too many people are excluded from the

labour market

4

Source: OECD (2016), OECD Education at a Glance 2016 Database.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

ISL

NL

D

CH

E

LU

X

DE

U

SW

E

NO

R

JPN

AU

T

DN

K

AU

S

CZ

E

ES

T

LV

A

CA

N

NZ

L

GB

R

BE

L

ISR

FIN

US

A

OE

CD

SV

N

PR

T

PO

L

HU

N

IRL

FR

A

SV

K

KO

R

CH

L

ME

X

ES

P

GR

C

ITA

TU

R

Youths not in employment, education or training (NEET), 2015% of the 15-29 population

Page 5: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Public spending is high

5

Per cent of GDP, 2016

Source : OECD (2017), OECD Economic Outlook 101 Database.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

IRL

CH

E

US

A

JPN

CZ

E

ES

T

CA

N

OE

CD

PO

L

SV

K

GB

R

ES

P

NL

D

DE

U

PR

T

SV

N

HU

N

EA

16

GR

C

ITA

SW

E

AU

T

BE

L

DN

K

FIN

FR

A

Page 6: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Developing a long-term strategy to reduce public spending and

taxes

6

Page 7: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Without policy changes the debt-to-GDP is

set to increase further

7

Debt simulations (per cent of GDP)

Source: OECD calculations based on OECD (2017), OECD Economic Outlook 101 Database.

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Business as usual¹

Higher interest rate² (+1.4% points)

Further improvement in the primary balance (+0.5% points) and higher GDP growth (+0.5% points)

Page 8: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Pension spending and the wage bill explain

most of the gap in public spending

8

1. Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding, overlapping across selected spending categories and non-universal coverage of all spending categories.2. Excluding pre-primary education.Source: OECD Economic Outlook 101 Database; OECD Social Expenditure Database (SOCX); OECD Education at a Glance 2016 Database.

Composition of public spending by main component

Page 9: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

The average effective age of labour-

market exit is low

9

Average effective age of labour-market exit in 20141

1. The effective retirement age shown is for the five-year period 2009-2014. The official pension age is shown for 2014, assuming labour market entry at age 20.

2. Belgium introduced a certain number of measures in 2015 to raise the effective age of labour market exit, focusing on conditions for accessing early retirement.

Source : OECD (2015), OECD Pensions at a Glance 2015, OECD Publishing, Paris.

Iceland

Men Women

Korea

Mexico

Turkey

Japan

Chile

Israel

New Zealand

Portugal

Switzerland

United States

Ireland

Australia

Sweden

Norway

Spain

OECD

Canada

United Kingdom

Estonia

Czech Republic

Denmark

Netherlands

Germany

Hungary

Slovenia

Austria

Belgium²

France

Poland

Luxembourg

Finland

Italy

Greece

Slovak Republic

50 55 60 65 70 75505560657075

Page 10: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Corporate tax rates are high

10

Source: Oxford Centre for Business Taxation (2017), CBT Database.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

IRL

SV

N

CZ

E

PO

L

TU

R

CH

E

ISL

FIN

KO

R

GB

R

HU

N

NL

D

SV

K

SW

E

DN

K

ISR

AU

T

OE

CD

NO

R

CA

N

ES

T

ITA

LU

X

CH

L

PR

T

GR

C

NZ

L

ME

X

AU

S

DE

U

ES

P

BE

L

JPN

FR

A

US

A

Average effective corporate tax ratesPer cent, 2016

Page 11: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

But corporate income tax revenues are low

11

Source: OECD (2017), OECD Revenue Statistics Database.

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

SV

N

LV

A

TU

R

DE

U

PO

L

HU

N

GR

C

ITA

ES

T

FR

A

FIN

US

A

AU

T

ES

P

GB

R

DN

K

IRL

NL

D

OE

CD

ISL

SW

E

ISR

CH

E

CA

N

PR

T

KO

R

ME

X

BE

L

SV

K

CZ

E

JPN

LU

X

NZ

L

NO

R

AU

S

CH

L

Corporate income tax revenuesAs a percentage of GDP, 2015

Page 12: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

The personal income tax represents a low

share of total tax revenues

12

1. 2014 for the OECD.2. Including the contribution sociale généralisée.Source: OECD (2017), OECD Revenue Statistics Database.

Personal income tax², 18.9%

Corporate income

tax,4.6 %

Social security

contributions,37.1 %Taxes on payroll

and workforce,3.5 %

Taxes on

property,8.9 %

Taxes on goods and services,

24.4%

Other taxes, 2.7%A. France

Personal income tax², 24.0%

Corporate income

tax,8.8 %

Social security

contributions,26.2 %

Taxes on payroll and workforce,

1.1 %

Taxes on

property,5.6 %

Taxes on goods and services,

32.6%

Other taxes, 1.8%B. OECD

2015¹

Page 13: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Exemptions and VAT tax breaks lead to a

substantial shortfall

13

1 Ratio between the actual value-added tax (VAT) revenue collected and the revenue that would theoretically be raised if VAT was applied at the standard rate to all final consumption. It implicitly measures the share of potential tax revenues lost due to the existence of preferential tax treatments.Source: OECD (2016), Consumption Tax Trends 2016: VAT/GST and excise rates, trends and policy issues, OECD Publishing,

Paris.

VAT revenue ratio1 (%), 2014

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

ME

X

GR

C

ITA

ES

P

TU

R

PO

L

GB

R

ISL

BE

L

NLD

SV

K

PR

T

FR

A

IRL

AU

S

CA

N

LVA

FIN

DE

U

OE

CD

NO

R

HU

N

SW

E

CZ

E

DN

K

AU

T

SV

N

CH

L

ISR

KO

R

JPN

ES

T

CH

E

NZ

L

LUX

Page 14: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Main recommendations to reduce public

spending and taxes

Meet the ambitious targets to reduce public spending and taxes

Move towards a single pension system to improve labour mobility and lower

management costs

Then, gradually increase the minimum retirement age in line with life expectancy

Lower social contribution rates and corporate income tax rates, as planned

Use lower social contributions as an opportunity to give a bigger role to the

progressive income tax, e.g. by lowering the basic allowance

Remove personal tax breaks on capital income, and lower the tax rate

Withdraw reduced rates for VAT, and increase green taxes

14

Page 15: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Fostering an inclusive development

of skills and employment

15

Page 16: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Too many adults have weak basic skills

16

Source: OECD (2016), Skills Matter: Further Results from the Survey of Adult Skills, OECD Skills Studies, OECD Publishing, Paris.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

JPN

FIN

SV

K

NL

D

CZ

E

NZ

L

NO

R

AU

S

KO

R

ES

T

SW

E

BE

L

AU

T

DN

K

CA

N

GB

R

IRL

US

A

DE

U

PO

L

OE

CD

FR

A

SV

N

GR

C

ISR

ES

P

ITA

TU

R

CH

L

% %

Share of adults 16-65 scoring below level 2 in PIAAC's reading proficiency scale2012-2015

Page 17: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Strengthen apprenticeships and public

employment services

17

Source: Ministère de l’Éducation nationale, DEPP.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Number of apprentices with a low level of educationAt year-end, thousands

Page 18: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

It is difficult to get a permanent contract

18

1. Employees on temporary contract in year t-1 but declaring having been hired on a permanent contract in year t.Source : Eurostat.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

ES

P

FR

A

GR

C

ITA

PO

L

EU

28 FIN

PR

T

SV

K

DE

U

LUX

HU

N

BG

R

SW

E

BE

L

NLD

SV

N

CZ

E

IRL

LTU

NO

R

ES

T

AU

T

DN

K

ISL

RO

U

LVA

GB

R

Transition rates from temporary to permanent contracts, 2015 (%, 16-64)¹

Page 19: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Unionisation is low

19

Source : OECD (2017), Labour Force Statistics Database.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

ES

T

TU

R

FR

A

KO

R

HU

N

US

A

CZ

E

PO

L

SV

K

ME

X

AU

S

CH

L

CH

E

OE

CD

ES

P

JP

N

NL

D

DE

U

NZ

L

PR

T

SV

N

GR

C

ISR

GB

R

CA

N

IRL

AU

T

LU

X

ITA

NO

R

BE

L

DN

K

SW

E

FIN

ISL

Trade union density, 2014Trade union members in per cent of employees, %

Page 20: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

But the collective bargaining

coverage rate is very high

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

TU

R

KO

R

US

A

ME

X

PO

L

LV

A

NZ

L

JPN

CH

L

HU

N

ES

T

SV

K

ISR

CA

N

GB

R

GR

C

OE

CD

CZ

E

CH

E

DE

U

LU

X

AU

S

SV

N

NO

R

PR

T

ES

P

ITA

DN

K

NL

D

ISL

SW

E

FIN

BE

L

AU

T

FR

A

Collective bargaining coverage rate, 2013Per cent of all wage earners with right to bargaining

Source: Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies (2017), ICTWSS Database.

Page 21: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Main recommandations to foster an inclusive

development of skills

21

Simplify the personal training account (CPF), and reduce the number of similar

schemes

Improve information about providers by strengthening the quality label system

Develop apprenticeships in vocational lycées

Continuously evaluate active labour market policies

Introduce professional judges to guide lay assessors in labour courts

Merge inactive sectors and those that lack the critical mass for effective bargaining

Ensure that the extension procedure for sectoral agreements takes account of their

economic and social impacts, and authorise exemptions

Encourage sectoral agreements that are differentiated by the size or age of the

business, for example

Reduce the number of institutions that represent workers

Ensure better protection for workers that represent colleagues

Page 22: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Improving life in poor

neighbourhoods

22

Page 23: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Residents of poor neighbourhoods face

various social handicaps

23

1. Percentage point gap in the odds of unemployment for poor neighborhoods' residents versus residents of surrounding urban areas; employed native-born women aged 30 to 49 with a baccalauréat only are identified as the reference group.2. Refers to post lower secondary education vocational qualifications such as: Certificat d’aptitude professionnelle (CAP) and Brevet d’études professionnelles (BEP)Source : ONPV (2016), Rapport annuel 2015.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

≤ Lower secondary Below upper secondary ² Upper secondary Tertiary

Poor neighbourhoods Surrounding urban areas

Likelihood of unemployment by place of residence and educationAdjusted for personal characteristics, education and immigrant status¹, 15-64 (%)

Page 24: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Reducing inequalities in educational

opportunities

24

1. Percentage variance in the PISA reading score for children aged 15 years explained by family environment (parents’ level of educationand income, social and occupational status, cultural possessions, books and education resources available at home).Source: OECD (2016), PISA 2015 Results (Vol. II): Excellence and Equity in Education, OECD Publishing, Paris.

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

ISL

NO

R

ES

T

CA

N

US

A

TU

R

GB

R

LVA

FIN

KO

R

ISR

JPN

DN

K

AU

S

ITA

NLD

SW

E

SV

N

NZ

L

ME

X

OE

CD

GR

C

IRL

ES

P

PO

L

DE

U

CH

E

PR

T

CH

L

AU

T

SV

K

BE

L

FR

A

CZ

E

LUX

HU

N

Impact of socio-economic background on pupils' reading performance¹ (per cent, 2015)

Page 25: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Urban renewal needs a stronger focus on

well-being

25

Page 26: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Improving access to higher-quality housing

for the poor

26

1. The first income decile includes households with average annual income below EUR 8 000, while the 10th decile refers to households with average annual income above EUR 39 000.Source : INSEE, Housing Survey 2013.

Housing tenure across households by income decile¹

Metropolitan France, primary residences, 2013

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Total

Social rental dwellings Market rented dwellings Owner-occupied dwellings Other

Income deciles

Page 27: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Main recommendations for improving life in

poor neighbourhoods

Continue awareness campaign for recruiters

Better target public spending at transportation, childcare services and face-to-

face public services in poor neighbourhoods

Offer attractive salaries and career prospects to excellent teachers in schools

with many pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds

Promote an innovative range of different practices in teacher training in order to

meet the different needs of pupils

Use urban renewal in poor neighbourhoods as an entry point to offer practical

training in firms and basic skills courses

Reduce registration fees, and increase taxes on immovable properties

Tighten obligations to pay higher rents and encourage occupants whose income

rises above the eligibility ceiling to move houses

27

Page 28: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Improving the efficiency of the

health-care system

28

Page 29: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Health-care quality is high

29

Source: Eurostat (2016), Amenable and Preventable Deaths Statistics.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

CH

E

FR

A

LUX

NL

D

ES

P

NO

R

ITA

BE

L

SW

E

DN

K

AU

T

IRL

DE

U

FIN

PR

T

GB

R

SV

N

GR

C

EU

28

PO

L

CZ

E

HR

V

SR

B

ES

T

SV

K

HU

N

BG

R

LTU

RO

U

LVA

Deaths avoidable through better health-care, 2014Per 100 000 inhabitants

Page 30: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

But expenditures are high and likely to

increase

30

Source: OECD (2017), OECD Health Statistics Database.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

FRANCE Germany Italy Spain

Current health-care spending, 1990-2016Per cent of GDP

Page 31: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

There is room to improve prevention

31

1. The scope of institutional spending is different from the entirety of spending on prevention in France, especially for ordinaryconsultations, which amount to 9.3 billion euros in 2014 according to Drees, i.e. 3.9% of health spending, compared to 2.0% in 2014according to OECD figures.Source : OECD (2017), OECD Health Statistics Database.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

ISR

GR

C

BE

L

PR

T

AU

S

FRA

ES

P

LVA

SV

K

AU

T

ISL

CH

E

LUX

DN

K

HU

N

SV

N

PO

L

IRL

CZ

E

JPN

OE

CD

US

A

NO

R

DE

U

SW

E

ES

T

ME

X

KO

R

NLD FI

N

ITA

GB

R

CA

N

Spending on prevention, 2015Per cent of health-care spending ¹

Page 32: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Coordination between different care

providers is insufficient

32

Source : Drees (2017), Les établissements de santé – édition 2017.

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Use of emergency departments Population

Hospital emergency departments' useIndex, 1996=100

Page 33: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Hospital expenditures are high

33

Source : OECD (2017), OECD Health Statistics database.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

LV

A

ME

X

CZ

E

KO

R

ES

T

PR

T

CA

N

ISR

SV

K

HU

N

PO

L

ES

P

GB

R

SW

E

OE

CD

FIN

IRL

SV

N

ITA

AU

S

NO

R

DN

K

BE

L

US

A

DE

U

NL

D

JPN

CH

E

FR

A

GR

C

AU

T

In-patient curative and rehabilitative care, 2015Per cent of GDP

Page 34: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Developing the use of generics would cut

costs

34

Source : OECD (2017), OECD Health Statistics database.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

LUX ITA GRC CHE FRA BEL IRL PRT ESP AUT TUR DNK SVK NLD NZL DEU GBR

Value Volume

Use of generics, 2015Share in the reimbursed pharmaceutical market, %

Page 35: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

Main recommendations to improve the

efficiency of the health-care system

35

Increase health practitioners’ remuneration for prevention and complex chronic

diseases, which would help reduce the volume of treatments, prescriptions and

drug sales

Make it easier for insurers to contract with group practices

Develop electronic health records

Adjust the activity-based system for hospital funding (Diagnosis Related

Groups) to increase rewards for efficiency and quality for public and private

hospitals

Strengthen the autonomy of public hospital managers by allowing them to

develop their own human resource policies

Lower pharmaceutical spending by developing the use of generics, developing

targeted information for hospitals and primary-care providers to promote

appropriate prescribing and applying capped reimbursement amounts to a wider

range of drugs

Page 36: France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

For more information

Disclaimers:

The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of

the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.

This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries

and to the name of any territory, city or area.

36

http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-france.htm

@OECDeconomy

@OECD