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Daily Forex Market Overview

The Bank of Canada yesterday maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1% as it was expected, reporting in its statement that “…the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will likely remain appropriate for a period of time, after which some modest withdrawal will likely be required...”. The USDCAD advanced to its highest point since July 2012 at 1.0336 after the BOC monetary statement, as tighter policy would not come as soon as expected with low inflation and growth in GDP.

BOC and BOJ On Hold, ECB and BOE Decisions In Focus

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The Bank of Japan decided earlier today at Shirakawa’s last meeting, unanimously to hold its target for the interest rate between 0 to 0.1%, also kept unchanged the asset-purchase fund at ¥76 tln. A member of the board, Sayuri Shirai, proposed to begin earlier the open-ended JGB purchases, but the rest of the board declined. The USDJPY jumped to 94.10 close to almost 3-year peaks at 94.29, as BOJ governorship is moving to Kuroda, supporter of a more aggressive policy.

The EURUSD yesterday dropped to 1.2964 after ADP Employment report showed that private sector added 192K jobs in February, more than estimated 172K jobs , further the US factory orders declined by 0.2% in January, less than projected, raising the US dollar value. However early today the EURUSD lifted, trading now at 1.3013 most likely due to Portugal’s credit rating raise to BB with stable outlook from negative by S&P. In addition ECB’s meeting is in focus with monetary policy expected to remain unchanged, but might be some warning for future easing. Lastly, the cable sank to more than 2 1/2 new lows at 1.4967 ahead of BOE monetary statement.

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USD/JPY Exchange Rates ForecastPrices have approached for one more time key upside barrier at 94.43, violating mixed SMAs and refreshing the bullish mood. Consolidation of rising attempts below that level indicates the strength of the resistance, however surging structure prevails thus is likely to see an almost 3-year new high. Looking at the oscillators, recent lift raised slightly the RSI (14) and had a larger positive effect on short-term oscillators with Stochastic entering into overbought zone, creating some contrarian sentiment.

Should the upside boundary at 94.43 is penetrated, surging potential would increase driving prices towards the 161.80% Fibonacci level or to the upper Bollinger band around 96.33, ahead of the 261.80% at 99.81. Alternatively, prices are likely to be maintained below 94.43 and return to 50 SMA at 90.96 while penetration of that level wound form a double top reversal pattern targeting handle at 87.49.

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