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#pfsni
Financial Planning in Focus Conference
#pfsni
Negative rate anarchy in the UK?Lower for longerRichard RamseyChief Economist Northern Irelandwww.ulstereconomix.comrichard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.comTwitter @UB_Economics
1975
LOWER FOR LONGER
Lower for longer 1. Interest rates2. Sterling3. Inflation4. Economic Growth5. Productivity6. Public Finances 7. Political Confidence8. Challenges & Opportunities?
Down, down, deeper and down…
Not so great expectations…
Interest rates on government debt falling to record lows
Sterling plunges…£ to remain lower for longer
InflationLow for not much longer!
Era of ‘lowflation’ has been and will soon be gone…
Cost of Living crisis went into reverse!
Oil tank prices fall to 11-year low but not for long
Cost of Living crisis been & gone but will it return?
Wages below 2009 levels for a while longer
Petrol prices set for 120 ppl and beyond
Oil price lows have passed. Higher prices in 2017…
The Cost of Living Crisis, Part Two?
“Cost of Living Crisis”
Commodity price collapse with only a modest pick-up
£1,500DEFUSEDFor Now
Consumer spending affected by income as well as earnings
Economic GrowthLower for longer!
Forecasts for 2017 lowered
NI’s economic recovery in context
1. Unemployment at an 8-year low
2. Employment rate has never been higher
3. More people in work than ever before
4. Economic inactivity rate has never been lower
5. Too many school leavers with low / no skills / qualifications
The highs & lows of the labour market?
ProductivityToo low for far too long!
The UK hasn’t been minding the productivity gap!
Public FinancesDeficits & DebtHigher for longer
Borrowing likely to be higher for longer…
…means national debt is growing higher for longer
£1,638,500,000,000
NI Tax – this low for how much longer?
Political confidence Even lower for even longer?
BREXIT …the known unknown
Populist politics is on the rise everywhere
Spotlight now on EU not just the UK
Challenges & Opportunities1. Consumer ‘sweet spot’ turning sour. C.O.L Crisis II & III
2. Slower growth – time to mind the productivity gap!
3. Public finances a mess… Austerity – lower for longer…
4. UK vulnerable to a negative economic shock – China?
5. Brexit means what exactly? Uncertainty for how long?
6. Political stability – US, UK & intra UK
7. Exploit new markets & new sectors on the rise
Slide 38
“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty”
Winston Churchill
Out of every crisis springs opportunity
Slide 39
But will we grasp it?
Slide 41
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Financial Planning in Focus Conference