Digital Disruption - investeringsuniverset

til DNB Nordic Technology

Erling H. Kise

Digital disruption

Erling H Kise

DNB Nordic Technology

3

Something interesting is happening…

Uber, the world’s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles. Facebook, the world’s most popular media owner, creates

no content. Alibaba, the most valuable retailer, has no inventory. And Airbnb, the world’s largest accommodation

provider, owns no real estate.

Source: Techcrunch

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Tre internett-faser

1. Da internett lå i skuffen: 1990 - 2007

Fast internett hastighet: 0.5 - 2 Mb/s Mobilt internett hastighet: 56 -114 Kb/s

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2. Da internett ble mobilt: 2007 - 2015

Fast internett hastighet: 10 - 100 Mb/s Mobilt internett hastighet: 5 – 40 Mb/s

Tre internett-faser

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7

8

9

10

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Men noen steder har tiden stått stille….

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Taxi i Madrid – november 2015

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12. etasje i Bjørvika – november 2015

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Hvor ble det av annonseinntektene til avisene?

16Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Newspaper Magazine

Omsetning USD mill

….flyttet seg med «eyeballs»

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Selskap 1 Selskap 2

Omsetning USD mill

18Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

÷ NOK 254 mrd+ NOK 238 mrd

To selskaper har tatt en kvart trillion fra ca 3000 aviser i USA….

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We’ve only just begun…

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We’ve only just begun…

Hey, don’t forget about me!I have USD 150 Bn net cash

on my balance sheet

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We’ve only just begun…

Hey, don’t forget about me!I have NOK 1.200 Bn cash

on my balance sheet

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We’ve only just begun…

Hey, don’t forget about me!I have “et norsk statsbudsjett” cash

on my balance sheet

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3. Internett blir “altoverskyggende”: 2016

Fast internett hastighet: 0.5 - 1 Gb/s Mobilt internett hastighet: 3-500 Mb/s

Tre internett-faser

Eksponensiell utvikling i innovasjon

Fintech challenging banksFragmentation of TV

Information SecurityInternet of things

Services moving into the cloudInternet for all

Global Population

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000

Internet Population

Fintech challenging banksFragmentation of TV

Information SecurityInternet of things

Services moving into the cloudInternet for all

Global Population

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000

Internet Population

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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

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29

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It’s a match

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HATT

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Internet of things og Machine learning i medisinsk bruk

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Artificial Intelligence i home automation

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Artificial Intelligence i selvkjørende biler

35Source: Statstics Norway

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The future of TV is artificial intelligence

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YouTube er allerede den største TV-kanalen for unge mennesker i USA

39Source: Statstics Norway

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

3934

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11

US monthly views (mill)

PewDiePie – 40 mill subscribers

Ungdom i Norge bruker mer tid på internett enn TV

40Source: Statstics Norway

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Newspaper

TV

TV (16-25)

Radio

Books

Internet

Daily time spent (mins)

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Peer to peer betaling

VENMO: “We’ve got two competitors - Facebook and cash.”

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Enorme skala- og globale nettverkseffekter

1.5 Bn 1.2 Bn 0.8 Bn

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DNB Nordic Technology

ODIN Eiendom B

Fondsfinans Global Helse

ODIN Sverige A

Delphi Nordic

ODIN Sverige B

DNB Health Care

Pareto Nordic Return B

DNB Grønt Norden

DNB Norden (III)

Landkreditt Kina

Carnegie Medical

ODIN Finland D

Handelsbanken Norge

Delphi Europe

Pareto Investment Fund C

Danske Invest Horisont Aksje

Fondsfinans Norge

Carnegie Aksje Norden

Carnegie Worldwide Etisk

ODIN Finland C

Pareto Global C

Eika Norden

ODIN Global A

Storebrand Spar 2040

ODIN Global B

Nordea Global High Yield NOK

Storebrand Global Indeks I

DNB Asia

Danske Invest Norge I

KLP AksjeGlobal indeks 1 A

Pareto Global B

SKAGEN Kon-Tiki A

Storebrand Norge I

Pareto Global A

Nordea Norge Verdi

DNB Global (III)

Eika Balansert

Storebrand Global Obligasjon

Carnegie Aksje Norge

Alfred Berg Nordic Best Selection

Storebrand PensjonSpar

Nordea Kapital

Alfred Berg Humanfond

DNB Norge (IV)

Carnegie Multifond

PLUSS Europa Aksje (Fondsforvaltning)

ODIN Europa A

DNB Lang Obligasjon 20

DNB Norge Selektiv (II)

16.4 %

13.5 %13.2 %

12.3 %12.1 %12.1 %11.8 %

5.3 %

Best blant norskregistrerte fond siste 10 år

Kilde: Morningstar. Norskregistrerte fond per Januar 2016 – blant 357 norskregistrerte fond 44

Gjennomsnittlig 10 års avkastning - norskregistrerte fond

Best blant globale teknologifond

Kilde: Morningstar. Globale teknologifond per Januar 2016 – blant 57 tech-fond45

Gjennomsnittlig 10 års avkastning - globale teknologifond

Nordic Technology

JPMorgan Funds - Europe Technology Fund A (dist) - GBP

JPM Funds - Europe Technology Fund A (dist) - EUR

JPMorgan Funds - Europe Technology Fund A (acc) - EUR

JPMorgan Funds - Europe Technology Fund A (dist) - EUR

Henderson Horizon Fund - Global Technology Fund A1 USD Inc

Franklin Technology Fund W(acc)USD

Henderson Horizon Fund - Global Technology Fund A2 GBP Acc

Henderson Horizon Fund - Global Technology Fund A2 USD Acc

Franklin Technology Fund A(acc)USD

JPMorgan Funds - Europe Technology Fund D (acc) - EUR

Fidelity Funds - Global Technology Fund A-EUR

Franklin Technology Fund N(acc)USD

Franklin Technology Fund N(acc)EUR

Franklin Technology Fund B(acc)USD

Polar Capital Global Tech Fund

Lannebo Vision

Öhman Global Growth

Aberdeen Global - Technology Equity Fund A2

JPMorgan Funds - US Technology Fund A (dist) - GBP

ACMBernstein SICAV International Technology Portfolio A

JPMorgan Funds - US Technology Fund A (acc) - USD

JPMorgan Funds - US Technology Fund A (dist) - USD

JPM Funds - US Technology Fund A (dist) - USD

NN (L) Information Technology - P Dis USD

NN (L) Information Technology - P Cap USD

SEB Teknologifond NOK

UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - Global Multi Tech (USD) Q-acc

Parvest Equity World Technology Classic-Capitalisation

NN (L) Information Technology - X Cap USD

UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - Global Multi Tech (USD) P-acc

JPMorgan Funds - US Technology Fund D (acc) - USD

Invesco Global Technology Fund C

Invesco Global Technology Fund A

BlackRock Global Funds - World Technology Fund A2 USD

Invesco Global Technology Fund B

16.4 %

10.6 %10.5 %10.5 %10.5 %10.1 %10.1 %10.0 %10.0 %9.9 %9.4 %9.1 %9.0 %9.0 %8.4 %8.4 %8.2 %8.2 %

7.5 %7.5 %7.4 %7.4 %7.4 %7.4 %7.3 %7.3 %7.0 %6.8 %6.8 %6.7 %6.4 %6.3 %6.2 %5.7 %5.6 %4.6 %

DNB Nordic Technology

BlackRock Swiss Small & MidCap Fund A2 CHF

PineBridge Global Funds - India Equity Fund Y

Franklin Biotechnology Discovery Fund W(acc)USD

Franklin Biotechnology Discovery Fund A(acc)USD

Standard Life Investments Global SICAV China Equities Class A Acc

ODIN Eiendom A

ODIN Eiendom D

UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - Greater China (USD) Q-acc

Fidelity Funds - Thailand Fund A-USD

Allianz Thailand Equity A USD

Fondsfinans Global Helse

NN (L) Food & Beverages - P Dis USD

First State Asian Equity Plus Fund Class I (Distributing) USD

ODIN Eiendom C

First State Asian Equity Plus Fund Class I (Accumulation) USD

Franklin India Fund W(acc)USD

MFS® Meridian Funds - European Smaller Companies Fund Class W1 USD Acc

Franklin India Fund W(acc)GBP

Franklin India Fund W(acc)EUR

ODIN Sverige B

SEB European Equity Small Caps Fund D

MFS® Meridian Funds - European Smaller Companies Fund Class A1 EUR Acc

Allianz China Equity A USD

Franklin India Fund A(acc)USD

Morgan Stanley Investment Funds US Advantage I

Fidelity Funds - China Focus Fund A-USD

HSBC Global Investment Funds - Asia ex Japan Equity Smaller Companies Class AC

JPMorgan Funds - Global Healthcare Fund D (acc) - USD

Franklin India Fund A(Ydis)GBP

Robeco Chinese Equities Class D EUR Acc

Invesco Funds - Invesco Greater China Equity Fund A

Schroder International Selection Fund Swiss Small & Mid-Cap Equity B Acc

Morgan Stanley Investment Funds Global Brands Fund I Acc

Carnegie Sverigefond

Brown Advisory US Equity Growth $ B

Franklin India Fund N(acc)USD

Aberdeen Global - Indian Equity Fund A2

Morgan Stanley Investment Funds US Advantage A

Templeton Global Total Return Fund W(Mdis)USD

Templeton Global Total Return Fund W(acc)USD

Invesco Korean Equity Fund A Inc

Templeton Global Total Return Fund W(Mdis)EUR

AXA World Funds Global Emerging Markets Bonds F Capitalisation USD

Henderson Gartmore Fund Pan European Smaller Companies R€ Dist

AXA World Funds Global Emerging Markets Bonds F Distribution USD

Schroder International Selection Fund Hong Kong Equity B Acc

Amundi Funds Equity Greater China AU-C Class

Amundi Funds Equity Greater China AU-D Class

Allianz Europe Equity Growth AT EUR

16.4 %15.7 %

14.9 %14.2 % 13.9 %

10.5 %

Best blant 11.517 fond på Morningstar

Kilde: Morningstar. Globale teknologifond per januar 2016 – blant 11.517 fond på Morningstar 46

Gjennomsnittlig 10 års avkastning - alle fond registrert på Morningstar

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Som kjent – det er vanskelig å spå fremtiden

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«Netflix is like the Albanian army going to take over the world»

Jeff Bewkes – TIME Warner

Som kjent – det er vanskelig å spå fremtiden

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De neste 10 år vil bli mer transformative enn de

forrige 30 år

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Takk for oppmerksomheten

DNB Nordic Technology