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CIS countries: Issues and challenges for agriculture in the WTO context
Lars Brink
Agricultural Trade Expert Network in Europe and Central Asia, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United NationsConference: Integration processes in the CIS region and their implications for agricultural tradeKaliningrad State Technical University26-27 March 2015, Kaliningrad, Russia
2
Georgia
Moldova
Armenia
Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan
Tajikist
an
Azerb
aijan
Belarus
Kazakhsta
n
Uzbekist
an
Ukraine
Russia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
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70
75
80
85Value of production in agriculture:
average 2010-12
USD billion
Lars BrinkSource: Gross production value, FAOSTAT. Uzbekistan estimated by author.
Not CIS
Not CIS
Not CIS
WTO accession process
3
Georgia
Moldova
Armenia
Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan
Tajikist
an
Azerb
aijan
Belarus
Kazakhsta
n
Uzbekist
an
Ukraine
Russia
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
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12
Value of production in agriculture: average 2010-12
USD billion
Lars BrinkSource: Gross production value, FAOSTAT. Uzbekistan estimated by author. Year indicated is year of WTO accession.
2013
1998200120012000
Acce
ssio
n pr
oces
s
Acce
ssio
n pr
oces
s
Acce
ssio
n pr
oces
s
Acce
ssio
n pr
oces
s
4
– Market access• Bilateral negotiations with many countries in parallel
– Bound tariffs; also tariff rate quotas for some candidates
– Export subsidies• Plurilateral negotiations
– No accession with export subsidy entitlements (after 1997)
– Domestic support• Plurilateral negotiations
– Bound Total AMS for some, nil for some AMS = Aggregate Measurement of Support
– De minimis percentage – Entitlement to use Article 6.2 exemption?
Accession negotiations in agriculture
Lars Brink
5
– Privatization
– State-owned or state-trading enterprises
– Agricultural taxation
– SPS and TBT Sanitary and phytosanitary; Technical barriers to trade
– Export subsidies in agriculture
– Sugar
Agr policy change in accession process
Lars Brink
6
• Do recent policies meet green box criteria?– Georgia: only green box; all others: both green and AMS
• No WTO definition of developing vs. developed country– Makes difference for policy space: de minimis and Article 6.2
» Tajikistan acceded as developing country» Kyrgyz Rep, Georgia, Armenia, Moldova, Ukraine, Russia:
developed» Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan: outcome not yet known
• Value of production VOP defines de minimis levels– Kyrgyz NPS at 4.87% of VOP vs. Russia NPS at 5.07% of VOP
Domestic support issues in accessions
Lars Brink
7
• Tajikistan– 2009 writeoff of cotton debt gave Bound Total AMS of $183 million
• Armenia– Very little AMS support through 2011 notification
• Moldova– 1996-98 AMSs for many products; Bound Total AMS only $20 mill.
• Georgia– Only country in CIS region to report nil AMS support in all years– Notified up through 2013, much more up to date than most Members
• Kyrgyz Republic– 1998 (!) latest notification
Base data, commitments, notified support
Lars Brink
8
Domestic support parameters: five smaller WTO members
Base years Base Total AMS Final Bound Total AMS De minimis % Special features
Tajikistan 2008-10 183 USD mill. 183 USD mill. 10% Used Article 6.2 exemption in
base years
Armenia 1995-97 0 USD 0 USD De minimis 10% through 2008, then 5%
Moldova 1996-98 16 SDR mill. 13 SDR mill. in 2004 5% Reduce by 20% in 2001-04
from Base Total AMS
Georgia 1996-98 0 GEL 0 GEL 5% -
Kyrgyz Republic 1994-96 0 KGS 0 KGS 5% -
Lars Brink
920012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014
20152016
20172018
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Russia: Applied support and limits on support
Current Total AMS (applied)Bound Total AMS (limit)Green
billion USD
Lars BrinkSource G/AG/W/141-02
10Lars Brink
Bound in USD RUB Equivalent0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
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13
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15
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USD billion
Russia: WTO commitment in US dollars USD
2015 Bound Total AMS = USD 7.2 billion
Equals RUB 224 billion at 2012 exchange rate
Equals RUB 465 billion at February 2015 exchange rate
RUB billion
11Lars Brink
USD Equivalent Bound in UAH0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450 Ukraine: WTO commitment in Ukrainian hryvnia UAH
2015 Bound Total AMS = UAH 3.0 billion
Equals USD 381 million at 2012 exchange rate
Equals USD 124 million at February 2015 exchange rate
USD million UAH billion
12
• Meets 3-4 times per year– Questions on trade policy and on notifications
• Most questions to Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia– Green box compatibility of domestic support programs– Price support for sugar beets: adjustment of reference price– Quota allocation, import licensing, in-quota sugar imports
• Russia started to notify in 2013– Numerous questions; some lack of transparency
• Export restrictions notified– Ukraine, Russia, Kyrgyz Rep and Moldova
WTO Committee on Agriculture
Lars Brink
13
– Azerbaijan– How large are input subsidies relative to VOP? De minimis %?
– Belarus– Input subsidies; also Market Price Support?; budget support declining
– Kazakhstan– Large increasing support: input & output subsidies, price support?– Base period? De minimis 5, 10, or 8.5%? Article 6.2 questionable
– Uzbekistan– Input subsidies, government control of cotton production and trade
• Turkmenistan– Accession process not started, preparations underway, negative support
Countries in process of accession
Lars Brink
14
– Many tariff settings at play • Applied tariffs before Customs Union: different in each country• Applied external tariffs of Customs Union• Bound WTO tariffs: Russia, Armenia, (Kyrgyz Rep.)• Negotiated tariffs earlier in WTO process: Kazakhstan, Belarus
– Which tariffs are lower or higher than those of Customs Union?• Consequences for accession negotiations? Kazakhstan, Belarus• How to negotiate bound WTO tariffs in accession? Kazakhstan, Belarus• Renegotiate bound WTO tariffs? Russia, Armenia, (Kyrgyz Rep.)
– Diverse agricultural trading relations of smaller CIS countries• Considerable trade with neighbours other than Russia
Customs Union and EaEU integration
Lars Brink
15
– Rules in Single Economic Space SES agreement• Modelled after WTO Agreements• Unusual, possibly unique in regional trade agreement
– Severely distorting measures not allowed• Similar to export subsidies in Subsidies Agreement ASCM
– Distorting measures and support• Similar to Annex 3 in Agr Agreement, including WTO market price support• Ceiling at 10% of VOP, declining to 10% for Belarus• Upon WTO accession, WTO rules override SES rules
– Notification requirements: Advance notifications
Rules on “state support to agriculture”
Lars Brink
16
– Legal obligations as a WTO member• Defending non-compliance can be costly• Correcting non-compliant policy can impose adjustment costs
– WTO rules help to resist domestic pressure for costly support• Green box criteria are a policy filter to improve transfer efficiency and
generate less distortions
– Agricultural and economic data becomes policy priority• Need data-based analysis for policy design• Need to meet requirements for WTO notifications
– E.g., estimating de minimis thresholds
Meeting WTO rules and commitments
Lars Brink
17
– Contribute to work of Committee on Agriculture• Review countries’ implementation of Agreement
– Participate in negotiations• Doha negotiations; accession of other countries
– For those in process of WTO accession • Continuity and communications with working party are vitally important
– How much support and protection in the future?• Competition among neighbouring countries• Address in accession negotiations
Opportunity to shape WTO processes
Lars Brink
Thank [email protected]
References
Brink, L. 2014. Countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States: Agricultural policy issues in the context of the World Trade Organization. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3883e.pdf
Brink, L. 2015 (forthcoming). Farm support in Ukraine and Russia under the rules of the WTO. In Transition to Agricultural Market Economies: The Future of Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine, ed. A. Schmitz and W. Meyers. Cambridge, USA and Wallingford, UK: CABI.
Brink, L. 2014. Evolution of trade-distorting domestic support. In Tackling Agriculture in the Post-Bali Context. Geneva: International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development. http://www.ictsd.org/sites/default/files/research/Tackling%20Agriculture%20in%20the%20Post-Bali%20Context_0.pdf
Brink, L. 2011. The WTO disciplines on domestic support. In WTO Disciplines on Agricultural Support: Seeking a Fair Basis for Trade, ed. D. Orden, D. Blandford and T. Josling. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
