Congressional Budget Office

Presentation at the NYU Stern Economic Outlook Forum New York City, New York

Wendy Edelberg Assistant Director, Macroeconomic Analysis

CBO’s Economic Projections

September 8, 2015

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Growth of Real GDP

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Contributions to the Growth of Real GDP

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Real Total Compensation of Employees

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Business Investment

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Household Formation

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Growth of Trade

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Rates of Short- and Long-Term Unemployment

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Underuse of Labor

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Employment Shortfall

The employment shortfall is the number of people who would be employed if the unemployment rate equaled its rate in December 2007 (the light blue bars) and if the labor force participation rate equaled its potential rate (the dark blue bars).

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The Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment

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Labor Force Participation Rates

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Hourly Labor Compensation

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GDP and Potential GDP

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Inflation

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Forecasts of Interest Rates by CBO, the Federal Reserve, and Federal Funds Futures

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Interest Rates

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Nominal and Real 10-Year Treasury Notes

*Calculated using the consumer price index for all urban consumers.

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Spread Between 10-Year Treasury Notes and 3-Month Treasury Bills

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Interest Rates on 10-Year Treasury Notes