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Berkeley Macro MusingsConfidential. All Rights Reserved.
Investment and insurance products:
NOT FDIC-Insured/ No Bank Guarantee/ MAY Lose Value
Section I: Central Banking Effect on
Capital Markets
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Growth of Fed Balance Sheet
= Beginning of new QE packages.
= End of QE3.
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S&P price chart from QE1 through QE3
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S&P price chart since QE ended
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HYG price chart since QE ended
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DBC price chart since QE ended
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Global Increase of Central Bank Balance Sheets
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US departure from Central Bank Trend?
Meanwhile, in the rest of the world . . .
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A whole new world, one with negative interest debt
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A whole new world, one with negative interest debt
$5.5 Trillion as of Feb. 2016
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Alternative Assets . . .
Section II: The Futility of Prognosticators“Why we are skeptical about Wall Street, Central
Bankers and Financial Media”
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Wall Street Predictions heading into 2008
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Goldman Sachs on Earnings Per Share Growth
Estimates made in 2014 for EPS
Year Old Est. Actual
2014 $116 $113
2015 $125 $106
New Est.
2016 $132 $117
2017 $138 $126
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Wall Street Interest Rate Predictions
Actuals: High for Year 3.00%
2.50%
Actuals: Low for Year 2.10%
1.68%
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The Barron’s curse?
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Price chart of FB following 2012 Barron’s cover
Valuations
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S&P 500 Valuation
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S&P P/E vs 10 Year Treasury
S&P 500
Historical P/E
Yield of 10-Year
US Treasury
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Anemic Revenue Growth
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Record Profit Margin
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Stock Buybacks
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Demand of Stocks driven by buybacks
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Other Macro Measures
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Emerging Markets
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Emerging Markets
