Club of Rome Global Assembly 2009Climate, Energy and Economic Recovery

Amsterdam, 26 and 27 October 2009, Muziekgebouw aan ‘t IJ/Harbour Music Hall

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Introduction

• Since1976,theClubofRomehasbeenorganisinganannual

worldconferenceonwhatitreferstoasthePredicament of Mankind

or the Problematique.Initsreportsovertheyears,theClubof

Romehashighlightedthemanyunderlyingissues:foodproduction,

resourcedepletion,population,pollution,energy,poverty,the

globaleconomyandsoon.

• Initsfirstreport,Limits to Growth,theClubpresentedanovel

analysisoftheseissues,adoptinga‘systemsapproach’basedona

computermodelcalledWorldIII(seeAppendix1).Ina2008study,

theAustralianresearchorganisationCSIROshowedthatactual

developmentsoverthe40yearssincethereport’spublication

conformverycloselytothescenariosdescribedinLimits.

• Manyseethecurrentworldcrisisasasignaloftheencroaching

limitstogrowth.The2009ClubofRomeconferencewillprovidea

uniqueopportunitytodebatewhetherthisisindeedthecase.

Frontpage:

TheGoldenLion,flagshipoftheDutchfleet,issaluted,cominghomeafter20years

ofloyalserviceintheharbourofAmsterdam;thesamevenueaswheretheClubof

RomewillhaveitsGlobalAssembly!

PaintedbyWillemvanderVeldejr.in1686.

• TheeventisbeingorganisedbyIMSAAmsterdam,anorganisation

createdbyClubofRomeMemberWoutervanDieren,Chairmanof

IMSA.VanDierenissupportedbyPietBriët,ProjectManager.The

ClubofRomeInternationalSecretariatinWinterthur,Switzerland,

Secretary-GeneralR.MartinLeesandtheExecutiveCommittee

oftheClubarealsoprovidingsupport.Asteeringcommitteehas

beenestablished,operatingunderaspecialentity,theStichting

(Foundation)“ClubofRomeGlobalAssembly2009Amsterdam”.

TheDutchAssociationfortheClubofRomeisinvolved,helpingwith

conferencepreparationsandtheMasterClasses.

TheaimsoftheClubofRome’sAnnualAssemblyareto

presenttheresultsofon-goingprogrammesandfutureplans,

toexchangeideasandtoidentifythedefiningfeaturesof

today’strendsandfuturechallenges.

Theissueofsustainabledevelopmentremainsaspivotal

asever.Thishasbeenamajorresponsetotheoriginal

messageofLimits to Growth,whichbroughttheClubof

Romeworldwiderecognition.Thekeyissuesinthiscontext

areenergyefficiency,climatestabilisationandeconomic

recovery.

Thisyear’sAssemblyistakingplaceatakeystageof

thepreparationsfortheUnitedNationsClimateChange

ConferencetobeheldinCopenhageninDecember2009.

Itisintendedthattheconclusionsandinsightsofthe

Assemblywillleadtoadeclaration,asacontributiontothe

negotiatingprocessforthisConference.

Day 1Chair: Paul Hohnen

08:00 - 09:30 Registration and Coffee

09:30 - 10:15 Opening09:30-09:35 PaulHohnen,Introduction

09:35-09:40 WoutervanDieren,Welcome

09:40-09:50 JobCohen,CityofAmsterdam

09:50-10:05 AshokKhoslaandEberhardvonKoerber,ClubofRome

10:05-10:15 PaulHohnen,LogisticsandMasterClasses

10.15 - 12:45 Master Classes >>

12:45 - 13:45 Lunch

13:45 - 15:30 The Need for Urgent Action on Climate Change at the National and International Levels

14:00-14:05 PaulHohnen,ReflectionontheMorning

14:05-14:15 RuudLubbers,IntroductionMikhailGorbachev

14:15-14:45 MikhailGorbachev,KeynoteStatement

14:45-14:55 RicardoLagos,SpecialEnvoyonClimateChange

14:55-15:30 PanelwithRuudLubbers,MikhailGorbachev,Ricardo

LagosandMartinLees

15:30 - 16:00 Break

16:00 - 18:15 The Urgency for Sustainable Economy16:00-16:25 JacquelineCramer,GrowthwithinLimits

16:25-16:50 JamesE.Hansen,LatestNewsonClimateChange

16:50-17:10 MaryNichols,ProvenPracticalSolutionsinCalifornia

17:10-17:30 MartinLees,TheProgrammeoftheClubofRome

17:30-18:00 PanelJacquelineCramer,JamesHansen,MaryNichols

andMartinLees

18:00-18:15 TheEnlightenmentTransition,LEDSolution

18:15 - 19:30 Reception

19:30 - 22:00 Dinner DinnerSpeechAnnemarieRakhorst

MusicalIntermezzo

-W.A.Mozart‘IsisundOsiris’fromthe Zauberflöte

-J.Brel‘Leplatpays’

-R.Strauss‘Morgen’

Programme of the Assembly MONDAYOCTOBER26

Day 2Chair: Paul Hohnen

08:00 - 09:30 Registration and Coffee

09:30 - 11:30 How must Corporations and Financial Institutions adapt to the New Challenges?

09:30-09:45 PaulHohnen,ReflectionsandIntroductionDay2

09:45-10:00 BarryGardiner,LatestNewsonNegotiationsforCOP15

10:00-10:55 CompanyoftheFutureintheContextofClimateChange

KeynotesbyDesso,Method,Philips,Shell,TriodosBank

10:55-11:30 Panel,StefKranendijk,AdamLowry,HarryHendriks,

JormaOllila,PeterBlom

11:30 - 12:00 Break

12:00 - 13:15 Keynotes on Energy, Climate and Oceans12:00-12:30 IanDunlop,ClimateChangeandPeakOil

12:30-12:40 Q&A

12:40-13:05 CharlesMoore,PlasticSoup

13:05-13:15 Q&A

13:15 - 14:15 Lunch

14:15 - 15:30 The Power of Optimism and New Models14:15-14:35 ChristineLoh,DevelopmentinChina

14:35-15:00 MichaelBaungart,CradletoCradle

15:00-15:25 ErnstvonWeizsäcker,Factor5:AConvenientTruth:

IncreasingWealthandReducingResourceUse

15:30 - 16:00 Break

16:00 - 17:30 The Message to Copenhagen16:00-16:15 RobertSwanmessage,SolutionstotheClimateCrisis

16:15-16:45 PanelWendyLuhabe,RobertRubinstein,Liesbethvan

Tongeren,AartvanVeller,LastCall

16:45-16:55 AshokKhosla,AmsterdamDeclaration

16:55-17:00 AmsterdamDeclarationtoCopenhagen

17:00-17:25 BilMcDonough,MotivatingCOP15andBeyond

17:25-17:30 EberhardvonKoerberandPaulHohnen,Closing

Remarks

17:30 - 19:00 Reception

TUESDAYOCTOBER27Programme of the Assembly

Master Classes

The Sustainable Economy: A New Model from the 1.

Netherlands

Economic Recovery on the Way to a New 2.

Sustainable Economy

The Latest on Climate Change3.

Peak Oil, Climate Change and Our Future Energy 4.

Supply

Practical Steps to a Sustainable Economy: China 5.

and the US

Climate Change is Key, but What About Food and 6.

Poverty?

Climate Change and Sea Transport7.

From Resource Efficiency to Effective Use of 8.

Resources

Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services9.

Sustainable Finance, Green Investment and 10.

Capitalism 3.0

1. The Sustainable Economy: A New Model from the NetherlandsFredLangeweg,RobMaas;Chair:KlaasvanEgmond

Thefinancialandenvironmentalcrisesdemonstratethatthecurrenteconomicmodelis

unsustainable.Atpresentgrowthrates,theworldeconomywoulddoubleby2030withimmense

implicationsforresourceuse,theclimate,wasteandpollutionandthesurvivalofecosystems.The

neweconomymustproperlyrecognizeandadapttothesechallenges.Theproblemsareclearand

thecontoursofthemeasuresrequiredareemerging.Anambitioussimulationhasbeendeveloped

intheNetherlandsandthiswillbepresented.

2. Economic Recovery on the Way to a New Sustainable EconomyJohnKay,FranzJosefRadermacher,WolfgangSachs;Chair:AndersWijkman

Theworldeconomyhasbeenconfrontedbyafinancialcrisisleadingtoaneconomicrecession,

andgovernmentshavedirectedtrillionsofdollarstostimulateeconomicrecoveryandto

generateemployment.Thesereactivemeasuresmustbepositionedwithinabroaderpurpose,

toundertakethestructuralreformsnecessarytolaythefoundationsforanew,low-carbon,

environmentallyresponsibleandsociallyequitableeconomy.Thisisapositiveopportunityand

animmensechallenge,toimprovehumanwelfareandprovidenewjobsandopportunitieswithin

theconstraintsofastableclimateandahealthyenvironment.Thefailureoftheconventional

economicwisdomhasopenedawaytomanynewconcepts,whichwillbedebatedinthisMaster

Class.

Master Classes

3. The Latest on Climate Change JamesHansen,MohanMunasinghe,PierVellinga;Chair:CrispinTickell

Thescientificcommunityisachievingadeeperunderstandingofthesystemsandprocesseswhich

driveacceleratingclimatechange.ThisunderstandingisfirmlybasedonthePaleolithicrecord,

increasinglysophisticatedmodelingandaboveall,practicalevidencefromallovertheworld.Inspite

ofallthenegotiationsandagreementstodate,concentrationsofgreenhousegasesintheatmosphere

arerisingataratehigherthanthebusiness-as-usualscenarioofIPCC.Wearethusfacingtheriskof

catastrophicclimatechange.Measurestoavertthisriskmustbecomethecentralfocusofpolicy.

4. Peak Oil, Climate Change and Our Future Energy Supply IanDunlop,WimTurkenburg;Chair:PaulHohnen

Moderncivilizationisbasedfundamentallyontheavailabilityofcheapenergy,particularlyoil.For

political,geographicandtechnicalreasonsitappearsthatthesupplywillnotbeabletokeepupwith

theescalatingdemand.Highoilpriceshaveimpactsacrosstheworld,particularlyforthepoorest

sectionsofthepopulation.Andenergyuseisfundamentalasadriverofclimatechange.Policiesand

actionstoaddressthesetwointerconnectedissuesaredifficulttodefineandmaybecontradictory

intheirconsequences.Thelevelofenergydemandin2050willbearounddoublethedemandtoday.

Theseissuesarerealtoday,buttheywillbemoresevereinthefuture.Howcanenergyproduction

doublewhilecuttingemissionsbyaround80%topreserveastableclimate?

Master Classes

5. Practical Steps to a Sustainable Economy: China and the US ChristineLoh,MaryNichols,ZhangShigang;Chair:MartinLees

ChinaisdoublingitsGDPeverytenyearswithconsequentescalationofenergyuseandarapidgrowthinemissions.TheChinese

aremakingaremarkableprogressinimprovingenergyefficiency,indevelopingnewpatternsofproductionandinre-orienting

theireconomyontoalessenvironmentally-damagingpath.Nevertheless,althoughemissionspercapitaarelow,Chinaisnowthe

world’slargestaggregateproducerofclimatechangeemissionsandtheprospectsarethatitsrapidgrowthwillcontinue,asan

explicitpolicytoprovideemploymentandimprovethelivingstandardsofitsgrowingpopulation.Majortransformationsarealso

inprogressacrosstheUS,andtheStateofCaliforniahasbeenplayinganinnovativeroleformanyyears.Thenegotiatingpositions

ofChinaandtheUnitedStatesintheUNClimateChangeConferenceinCopenhagenwillbeadeterminantoftheoutcome.

6. Climate Change is Key, but What About Food and Poverty?HansEenhoorn,DaudiSumba,YoungClubofRomeNL;Chair:IanJohnson

Theworldcommunityisheavilyfocusedonthekeyissueofclimatechange,butwefaceanarrayofpresentandfuture

issueswhichcannotbeignored.Forhundredsofmillionsofpeoplethefoodcrisisisimmediateandincreasingly

desperatewhileoverabillionpeopleliveinabjectpoverty.Thefocusofnegotiationsonmitigationandadaptationisessential,

butimmediateandearlyactionisneededtodealwithproblemsofpovertyandfoodsecurityacrosstheworldwhichwillbegreatly

worsenedbytheimpactsofclimatechange:forexample,increasedwaterstress,desertification,contaminationofaquifers,

floodinganddroughtandextremeweatherevents.TheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsendorsedbyworldleadersarenowatrisk

andglobalwarmingwillaggravatethisproblem.Thepoordidnotcausetheproblemofclimatechange,buttheyarepayingthe

highestprice.ClimatejusticeandhumanitariansupportwillbekeyelementsforthesuccessoftheCopenhagennegotiations.

Master Classes

7. Climate Change and Sea Transport KoenOvertoom,TiedoVellinga,StephanWrage;Chair:FreekOssel

Internationaltradeandtransportationsystemsonwhichitdependshaveflourishedfordecadesasthe

processofglobalizationhasaccelerated.Butseatransportandtheintensiveactivitiesinportscontribute

significantlytoglobalemissions.Asenergyusepercargounitformaritimetransportisafractionoftheuse

forairtransport,therehavebeenfewinitiativesandincentivestoimproveenergyefficiencyinthemaritime

sector.Althoughemissionsperunitarelow,theaggregateofmaritime-relatedemissionsissubstantial.The

largestportinEurope,Rotterdam,anditssisterportAmsterdam,aremajordriverstowardsanagreement

aimedatreducingthelevelsofCO2emissionsforseatransport.

8. From Resource Efficiency to Effective Use of ResourcesMichaelBraungart,StefanBringezu,BillMcDonough;Chair:FriedrichSchmidt-Bleek

Forfortyyears,theClubofRomehasemphasizedthateconomicgrowthoftheworldeconomybasedon

waste,overuseandthesquanderingofresourcesisnotsustainableinthelongerterm.Scientists,suchas

BioSchmidt-BleekandErnstUlrichvonWeizsäckerhaveproducedconvincingstudieswhichdemonstrate

thatthisistrue.TheirresearchintoFactor10andFactor4hasshownhowhighlevelsofwelfarecanbe

attainedtogetherwithdeepreductionsintheuseofenergyandnaturalresources.Forthisworkthey

receivedtheTakedaPrize.Otherscientistssuchas“CradletoCradle”chemistMichaelBraungartandUS

architectBillMcDonoughmakethecasethateffectivenessshouldbethefocusratherthanefficiency.Re-

designofproductstoallowchemicalrecoveryandrecyclingwouldmakepossibleaprosperouseconomy

withamajorreductionofwaste.

Master Classes

Master Classes

9. Biodiversity and Ecosystems Services AshokKhoslawithPavanSukhdev’smessage,CharlesMoore,JohanRockström;Chair:HansAlders

Whiletheinternationalfocusonclimatechangeisclearlyjustified,thethreatsarisingfromthedegradationof

biodiversityandspecieslossarealsoacute.Humanitydependsentirelyontheecosystemsservicesandthe

naturalcapitaloftheplanet.Thelossofbiodiversityisacceleratingandglobalwarmingwillaggravatethistrend.

Suchissuesarenotincludedinoureconomicmodels:theyareconsideredeffectivelyasfreepublicgoods.To

createfavourableconditionsforthefutureofhumanity,majoreffortswillbeneededtopreserveandrestore

biodiversityandecosystems,withoutwhichtheissueofclimatecannotberesolved.

10. Sustainable Finance, Green Investment and Capitalsm 3.0PeterBlom,AloisFlatz,EberhardvonKoerber,RobertRubinstein,Chair:OttoScharmer

Recenteventshavedemonstratedtheinstabilityoftheworldfinancialsystemwhichhastriggeredadeep

economicrecessionwithdirectimpactsonthejobsandlivesofmillionsofmenandwomenacrosstheworld.

Governmentsarefocusedontheneedforrapidrecovery,butthismustbeachievedwithinthecontextof

strategiestopromoteanewpathofsustainableeconomicgrowth.Toreverttotraditionalmodelsandstrategies

forfinanceandgrowthmaybringshort-termrecoveryatthecostoffurthercrisesinthefuture.Forthisreason,

manyinitiativesareemergingworldwidetocreateasoundframeworkfortheregulationofthefinancialsector,

toestablishnewcriteriaandmethodologiesforgreeninvestment,forintegratingsustainabilityintocorporate

strategyandtoformulateanewconceptionofsustainablesocio-economicgrowthwhichrespectstheenvironment

andconsiderstheprospectsoffuturegenerations.

Allovertheworld,economicrecoveryisbeinglinkedtowhatcanbe

calledthelowcarboneconomy.Aneconomicmodelwillbepresented

whichshowstheeffectsofsustainabilityinterventions,suchasfiscal

measures,treatiesandregulationanddemonstratesthataflourishing

economyisfeasiblewithafactor-10reductionin(carbon)energyuse

andasimilarfactor-10increaseinresourceefficiency.

TheunderlyingmodelbytheNetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessment

Agency(PBL)willbeelucidatedinMasterClass1.Thereportwillbe

launchedbyJacquelineCramer,MinisteroftheEnvironmentinthe

Netherlands.

Proposals for a Low Carbon Economy

List of World Master Class Assessors

HansAlders ChairTaskforceBiodiversitytheNetherlands,Netherlands

PeterBlom CEOTriodosBank,SustainableBankoftheYear2009,Netherlands

MichaelBraungart Director,EPEAInternationaleUmweltforschung,Germany

StefanBringezu SeniorFellowandDeputyDirector,DepartmentforMaterialFlowsandStructural

Change,WuppertalInstitute,Germany

StephenByers ChairmanofGLOBEInternational,UK

IanDunlop Expertonclimatechangeandpeakoil,Australia

HansEenhoorn MemberUNTaskForceonhunger,formerVice-PresidentUnilever,Netherlands

KlaasvanEgmond ProfessorofEarthandSustainability,UniversityofUtrecht,Netherlands

WalterErdelen AssistantDirector-GeneralforNaturalSciences,UNESCO,Germany

AloisFlatz Co-founderoftheDowJonesSustainabilityIndexes

JamesHansen HeadoftheNASAGoddardInstituteforSpaceStudies,Professorofthe

DepartmentofEarthandEnvironmentalSciences,ColumbiaUniversity,USA

PaulHohnen AssociateFellow,RoyalInstituteforInternationalAffairs(ChathamHouse),London

andformerStrategicDirector,GlobalReportingInitiative(GRI),Australia/NL

IanJohnson FormerVice-PresidentSustainableDevelopment(ESSD),TheWorldBank,USA

JohnKay AuthorofThe Truth about Markets,columnistTheFinancialTimes,UK

AshokKhosla Co-PresidentClubofRome,India;ChairmanofDevelopmentAlternatives

EberhardvonKoerber Co-PresidentoftheClubofRome,ChairmanandCEOofEberhardvonKoerberAG

FredLangeweg DeputyDirectoratNetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency,Netherlands

MartinLees Secretary-GeneralClubofRome,Scotland

ChristineLoh FounderandCEOofCivicExchange,non-profitpublicpolicythinktank,HK

RobMaas EuropeanairqualityandsustainabilityexpertattheNetherlandsEnvironmental

AssessmentAgency,Netherlands

BillMcDonough DirectorMcDonoughBraungartDesignChemistry,USA

CharlesMoore OceanographerandFounderofAlgalitaMarineResearchFoundation,USA

MohanMunasinghe Vice-Chair,IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,SriLanka

FreekOssel CityofAmsterdamAldermanonAirandSeaPorts,Netherlands

KoenOvertoom ManagingDirectorCommercialDivisionPortofAmsterdam,Netherlands

FranzJosefRadermacher FounderoftheGlobalMarshallPlan,Germany

JohanRockström President,StockholmResilienceCentre,Sweden

RobertRubinstein FounderandCEOofTBLI,Netherlands

WolfgangSachs ProfessorattheWuppertalInstitute,Germany

FriedrichSchmidt-Bleek President,Factor10Institute,France

ZhangShigang HeadofUNEPChinaOffice,China

DaudiSumba DirectorCapacityBuilding&LeadershipDevelopment,AfricanWildlife,Kenya

CrispinTickell AuthorofClimate Change and World Affairs, UK

WimTurkenburg ScientificDirector,CopernicusInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentand

Innovation,Netherlands

PierVellinga DirectoroftheWageningenUniversityClimateProgramme,Netherlands

TiedoVellinga InternationalProjectLeaderEnvironmentalShippingIndex,WPCI,andAssociate

ProfessorPortsandEnvironmentDelftUniversityofTechnology,Netherlands

AndersWijkman Vice-PresidentClubofRome,FormerMemberoftheEuropeanParliament,

Sweden

StephanWrage ManagingPartnerSkySails,Germany

Sponsoringcompaniesandinvitedinstitutionswillbegiven

anopportunitytoexhibittheirinnovationsandsustainability

programmesattheGlobalSolutionsSustainabilityFair.

Itwillbeauniquechancetodemonstratethepotentialofthelatest

innovationsandfamiliariseakeyaudienceandawiderpublicwiththe

latestgreentechnologiesandprogrammes.

Thefairwillbeopentoallinviteesandengagedpressthroughoutthe

twodaysoftheAssembly.

The Sustainability Fair

TheClubofRomeisanindependentglobalthinktank

withnoparticularpolitical,ideologicalorreligious

affiliations.Itsessentialmissionis“toactasaglobal

catalystforchangethroughtheidentificationand

analysisofthecrucialproblemsfacinghumanityand

thecommunicationofsuchproblemstothemost

importantpublicandprivatedecision-makersaswell

astothegeneralpublic.”Itsactivitiesshould“adopt

aglobalperspectivewithawarenessoftheincreasing

interdependenceofnations.Theyshould,through

holisticthinking,achieveadeeperunderstandingof

thecomplexityofcontemporaryproblemsandadopt

atrans-disciplinaryandlong-termperspective

focusingonthechoicesandpoliciesdeterminingthe

destinyoffuturegenerations.”

The Club of Rome

The Programme of the Club of Rome

Theglobalissueswhichwerethefocusofthe1972Report,“LimitstoGrowth”areevenmoresevereandurgenttoday.Atits40thAnniversary

AssemblyinJune2008,theClublaunchedathree-year,integratedprogrammeofinternationalresearchandconsultationonthetopic:ANewPath

forWorldDevelopment.

TheProgrammenowcomplementstheongoing,worldwideactivitiesoftheClubandusesthepotentialoftheinternettoengageitsMembers,its

33NationalAssociationsanditsEuropeanSupportCentretogetherwithexpertsandinstitutionsacrosstheworldinan“opensystems”approach.

Inthisway,itmobilisesandfocusesthebestbrainsavailableonthecriticalissueswhichwilldeterminethefutureofhumanityandoftheplanet.

Theresearchandcontentareoutlinedatwww.clubofrome.org.

Thepresentpathofworlddevelopmentisgeneratingimbalances,vulnerabilities,

inequities,exclusionandpolarizationwhichconstituteclearthreatstothe

prospectsofbothpresentandfuturegenerations.TheProgrammedrawsonthe

independent,multiculturalandinterdisciplinarymembershipoftheClubtoclarify

thekeyelementsofanewpathforworlddevelopment.Itwillproposenewlinesof

thinkingandactionwhichareurgentlyneededto:averttherisksandconsequences

ofcatastrophicclimatechange;reducethedevastatingimpactsofhumanactivities

onecosystemsandenvironmentandtheoveruseofthebiologicalandphysical

resourcesoftheplanet;achievemorefairnessinthedistributionofvitalresources

andopportunitiesandofthecostsandbenefitsofglobalisation;accelerateglobal

effortstoeradicatepovertyanddeprivationofagrowingworldpopulation;adapt

andreformthestructureofinternationalinstitutionstoaddresstheintegrated

problemsofaworldinrapidtransformation;andbroadly,toachieveequitableand

sustainableworlddevelopmentandthuspreserveinternationalsecurityandworld

peace.

Inordertomanagethecomplexityofsuchanextensiveproblematique,the

programmestrategyfocusessuccessivelyonfiveclustersofinter-

connectedissueswhilerecognizingthelinkagesbetweentheclusters.Ineachcase,

asmallexpertconferencedevelopsproposalsforactionandidentifiesissuesfor

in-depthanalysisthroughinternet-based,internationalresearchnetworks.Thefive

clusters are:

ClubofRome

InternationalSecretariat

Apollo House

Lagerhausstrasse9

CH-8400Winterthur

Switzerland

www.clubofrome.org

Tel:00-41-(0)52-244-0808

Fax:00-41-(0)52-244-0809

Email:info@clubofrome.org

June2009,Briefing1.1

1. EnvironmentandResources: ClimateChange,EnergySecurity,EcosystemsandWater.

2. Globalisation: DistributionofWealthandIncome,Employment,EconomicRestructuring,TradeandFinance.

3. InternationalDevelopment: DemographicGrowth,EnvironmentalStress,Poverty,FoodProduction,HealthandEmployment.

4. SocialTransformation: SocialChange,Values,Culture,IdentityandBehaviour.

5. PeaceandSecurity: Justice,Democracy,Governance,Solidarity,SecurityandPeace.

Bytheendof2009,theProgrammewillhaveanalysedanddevelopedstrategic

proposalscoveringthreecriticalareasofworldaffairswithinacoherentoverall

perspective:EnvironmentandResources;GlobalisationandFinance;and

InternationalDevelopment.Anditwillalsohavetransmitteditsideasandproposals

directlyintothepolicyprocessatahighlevel.Itwillthushelptobridgethecritical

gapbetweenscienceandanalysisononesideanddecisionmakingontheother.

Threefurtherstepswillbeimplementedin2010tocompletetheProgramme:

aconferenceonCluster4,SocialTransformation,andaconferenceonCluster

5,PeaceandSecurity.Finally,anInternationalForumoftheClubofRomewill

beconvenedinlate2010topresenttheintegratedresultsandlinesofaction.

Thiswillbefollowedbyaprocesstodisseminatetheresultsandproposalsto

leadersinthepublicandprivatesectors,tocivilsociety,totheeducationsystem

andtothepublic.Throughoutthethree-yearprogramme,interimresults,policy

recommendations,briefingandeducationalmaterialswillbeproduced,together

withspecificactivitiestoengageayoungergenerationandthemedia.Inthis

way,theClubwillcontributetoawareness,understanding,publicsupportand

actiononthecriticalissueswhichwilldeterminethefuture.TheClubhasaunique

opportunity to use its wide “brandrecognition”,itsindependentbroadly-based

membership,anditsaccesstoleadingpersonalitiesthroughouttheworldto

pressforamorecoherent,systemicapproachtothemanagementofworldissues,

recognizingthefundamentaltransformationsinprogressandclearlyfacingthe

growingthreatstothefuture.

on A New Path for World Development

• RicardoDíez-Hochleitner,Honorary President,BoardMemberof

theInternationalInstituteforDemocracyandElectoralAssistance,

Spain

• AshokKhosla,Co-President,PresidentofDevelopment

Alternatives,India

• EberhardvonKoerber,Co-President,ChairmanandCEOof

EberhardvonKoerberAG,Switzerland

• HeitorGurgulinodeSouza,Vice-President,

Secretary-GeneraloftheInternationalAssociationofUniversity

Presidents,Brazil

• AndersWijkman,Vice-President,FormerMemberoftheEuropean

Parliament,Sweden

• MartinLees,Secretary-General,RectorEmeritusoftheUniversity

forPeace,UnitedNations,UK

• IsidroFainéCasas,ChairmanoftheCajadeAhorrosy

PensionesdeBarcelona(LaCaixa),Spain

• WendyLuhabe,ChairmanoftheAllianceCapital,

SouthAfrica

• MonaMakram-Ebeid,ProfessorofPolitical

Science,AmericanUniversity,Cairo;formerMemberof

theEgyptianParliament

• KonradOsterwalder,RectoroftheUnitedNations

University,Under-Secretary-GeneraloftheUnitedNations,Japan

• RobertoPeccei,Vice-ChancellorforResearch,

UCLA,USA

• NoemíSanínPosada,AmbassadorofColumbiato

theUnitedKingdom,UK

Members of the Executive Committee of the Club of Rome

H.M.QueenBeatrix,QueenoftheNetherlands•

H.M.JuanCarlosI,KingofSpain•

H.M.DoñaSophia,QueenofSpain•

H.R.H.PrincePhilippe,CrownPrinceofBelgium•

JacquesDelors,France,formerPresidentoftheEuropean •

Commission

MikhailGorbachev,formerPresidentoftheSovietUnion•

RuudF.M.Lubbers,FormerPrimeMinisteroftheNetherlands•

WangariMaathai,FounderoftheGreenBeltMovement •

andrecipientoftheNobelPeacePrize2004

KoïchiroMatsuura,Japan,Director-GeneralofUNESCO•

ManfredA.Max-Neef,Chile,economistandenvironmentalist•

RigobertaMenchúTum,Guatemala,UNESCOGoodwill •

AmbassadorandrecipientoftheNobelPeacePrize1992

SadakoOgata,PresidentoftheJapanInternationalCooperation•

Agency(JICA)

B.F.Paton,Ukraine,PresidentoftheNationalAcademyof •

SciencesofUkraine

ManmohanSingh,PrimeMinisteroftheRepublicofIndia•

HugoThiemann,Switzerland,PresidentoftheIndustrial •

InnovationandCooperativeSystemS.S.A.

ErnestoZedillo,formerPresidentofMexico,DirectoroftheYale•

CentrefortheStudyofGlobalization

Selection of Honorary Members of the Club of Rome

BoardEric-JanTuininga,Chaira.i.andSecretarytotheBoard,Emeritus•

ProfessorFreeUniversityofAmsterdam

ArnaudJansen,Treasurer,HeadofControlling,ASNBank•

KarenJonkers,Boardmember,TT30andSustainabilityEntrepreneur•

PauldeJong,formerHeadofSustainabilityDepartment,Ministryof•

Agriculture,TheNetherlands

BasJurres,Boardmember,TT30andCorporateSustainability•

Entrepreneur

TinekeLambooy,Boardmember,Author• A world to gain: sixteen

views on corporate social responsibility

JeroenvandenBerg,SecretaryandEducationadviser•

Advisory Board to the Dutch ChapterHansEenhoorn,memberUNTaskForceonhunger•

MariusEnthoven,ViceChairmanoftheEnergyCouncil•

JoseevanEijndhoven,ProfessorinSustainableManagement,•

ErasmusUniversityRotterdam

EwoudGoudswaard,CEOofASNBank•

MauritsGroen,SpecialAgenttoAlGoreintheNetherlands•

HansOpschoor,ProfessorofEconomicsofSustainable•

Development,InstituteforSocialStudies

SuzannevanderPijll,PartneratSchuttelaar&Partners,•

SustainableInnovationsinFood,Agriculture,andHumanHealth

PaulRademaker,ProfessorInternalAffairs,UniversityofAmsterdam•

AnnemarieRakhorst,CEOofSearch,EnvironmentalEngineering•

LouiseVet,DirectoroftheNetherlandsInstituteofEcology(NIOO•

KNAW)

Dutch Chapter of the Club of Rome

IMSA Amsterdam, Prins Hendriklaan 15, 1075 AX AmsterdamStichting (Foundation) The Club of Rome Global Assembly 2009

WoutervanDieren,ChairmanIMSA,MemberoftheClubofRome•

PietBriët,ProjectManagerGlobalAssemblyAmsterdam2009, •

SeniorConsultantatIMSAAmsterdam

KimNackenhorst,ProjectLeaderGlobalAssemblyAmsterdam2009,Senior•

ConsultantatIMSAAmsterdam

Websites• www.clubofrome.at/2009/amsterdam

• www.clubofrome.org/eng/home/

• www.clubofrome.nl

• www.imsa.nl

Dutch Members of the Club of Rome• WoutervanDieren,ChairmanIMSAAmsterdam

Organisation Global Assembly 2009

APPENDIX 1: The World 3 Model

TheWorld3computermodeliscomplex,butitsbasicstructureisnothard

tounderstand.Itisbasedonsystemdynamics–amethodforstudyingthe

worldbyunderstandinghowcomplexsystemschangeovertime.Oneofthe

keyfeaturesisinclusionof‘feedbackloops’inthesystemstructurethatcan

influencethebehaviouroftheentiresystem.World3keepstrackof‘stocks’

suchaspopulation,industrialcapital,persistentpollutionandcultivated

land.Inthemodel,thesestockschangeasaresultof‘flows’suchasbirths

anddeaths;investmentanddepreciation;pollutiongenerationandpollution

assimilation;landerosion,landdevelopmentandlandremovedforurbanand

industrial uses.

Inthescenariosrunusingthismodel,fullaccountistakenofpositiveand

negativefeedbackloops,whichcansometimesradicallyaltertheoutcome.

World3alsoincorporatesnon-linearrelationships.Forexample,asmoreland

ismadearable,whatisleftbecomesdrierorsteeperorhasthinnersoils.

Thecostofcopingwiththeseproblemsmeansadramaticriseinthecostof

developingtheland–anon-linearrelationship.Feedbackloopsandnon-

linearrelationshipsmakeWorld3dynamicallycomplex,but the model is still a

simplification of reality.Itdoesnotdistinguishbetweengeographicalregions

oftheworld,nordoesitgiveseparateconsiderationtotherichandthepoor.It

keepstrackofonlytwoaggregatepollutants,whichmovethroughandaffectthe

environmentinwaysthataretypicalofthehundredsofpollutantstheeconomy

actuallyemits.Itignoresthecausesandconsequencesofviolence.And

thereisnoexplicitrepresentationinWorld3ofmilitarycapitalorcorruption.

Incorporatingthesenumerousdistinctionswouldnotnecessarilyimprovethe

model,however,whilemakingitverymuchhardertocomprehend.

ThisprobablymakesWorld3somewhatoptimistic.Ithasnomilitarysector

todraincapitalandresourcesfromtheproductiveeconomy.Ithasnowars

tokillpeople,destroycapital,wastelands,orgeneratepollution.Ithasno

ethnicstrife,nocorruption,nofloods,earthquakes,nuclearaccidents,orAIDS

epidemics.Themodelthusrepresentstheultimatelimitsfor‘therealworld’.

APPENDIX 2: Equilibrium Run

Scenario 9: The world seeks a stable population and stable per capita industrial output and adds pollution, resource and agricultural technologies from 2002

Inthisscenariopopulationgrowthandindustrialoutputarestabilisedandtechnologiesareimplementedtoreducepollution,conserveresources,improveagriculturalyields,andprotectfarmland.Theresultingsocietyissustainable:nearly8billionpeople

enjoyahighlevelofwelfareandhaveasteadilydecliningecologicalfootprint.

Executive Secretary of the UNFCCCTo Globe International, Club of Rome, London House of Commons, January 26, 2009

APPENDIX 3: Speech by Yvo de Boer

“It is not often that a generation is offered a chance to change the world for the better. But only a few times in the entire record of

humanity has a generation had a chance to change the world for good. We have that chance now… to shift decisively towards the

low-emission, resource-efficient, financially stable and equitable path that offers the only sustainable alternative to a future of

never-ending crises.

It is no coincidence that this year the world must reach an ambitious, ratifiable agreement to prevent dangerous climate change

just as nations are fighting to prevent the worst globalised depression in living memory. Our financial and economic crisis was the

result of living beyond our means, looking for short-term reward, conveniently ignoring the consequences. Climate change, we now

know, is the result of living beyond our planet’s capacity to provide the kind of environment without which our civilisations would

die. Oil, gas, coal, food and metal prices may look low now, but precarious imbalances in future supply and demand promise

soaring prices once more at signs of recovery.

In cause and effect, these crises are linked. The high-emission, resource-intensive, debt-driven economic model is dying.

Attempts to revive it along the same old lines will succeed only in restoring a living corpse. ...

...At the height of the Great Depression in the 1930s, the new US President Franklin D. Roosevelt focused the will of his own nation

in his inaugural address by promising that: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” That is not now the case. We have a

climate change shadow, growing darker with every passing year, that has the potential to draw a line under the future of humanity.

What is now true is that the only thing we have to fear is the fear to act.”