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Artifex Folio Model Updates
Model: AFG ROE
Date: January 6, 2014Doug Kinsey, CFP, AIFA
Chief Investment Officer
The AFG ROE Model!
Based on Zacks research which identifies top performing companies through their Return on Equity (ROE) metrics. ROE is a measure of management talent, reflecting asset allocation decisions. Is the company burning cash or creating assets?
The parameters for inclusion are normally:
ROE>10%
Price to Sales Ratio <1
Research Ranking = 1
Average brokerage community ranking = “hold” or better.
The ROE Model tends to be weighted toward small and mid-size companies
Additional ROE Model Statistics as of 1/6/2014
Statistic Model Holdings One-Year Risk Profile S&P 500
Beta vs. S&P 500 / Relative Risk
1.14 / Above Average -/NA 1.00 / Average
Volatility / Absolute Risk 15.95% / Average - / NA 10.85% / Below Average
Statistic Model Securities in Calculation* S&P 500
Price / Earnings 13.10 17 out of 18 16.88
Price / Sales 0.64 17 out of 18 1.65
Earnings per Share 2.62 17 out of 18 2.51
Dividend Yield 0.68 17 out of 18 1.96Market Capitalization 7.33 B 17 out of 18 125.07 B
*Number of total securities with available data from our vendor
(Information provided by Folio Institutional)
Inception Date Benchmark Return YTD Benchmark Return YTD
Return Since Inception
Benchmark Return Since Inception
1/1/2013 S&P 500 Total Return 52.10% 26.96% 52.10% 26.96%
AFG ROE Results as of 12/31/2013*
*Information provided by Folio Institutional - an independent investment custodian that provides client account and portfolio management services to Artifex financial Group and is unaffiliated with Artifex
Financial Group other than as a vendor.
AFG ROE Holdings as of January 2014Symbol Security %
Weight Change Since Purchase
ANFI AMIRA NATURE FOODS 5.89 93.38%
AFSI AMTRUST FINANCIAL* 5.68 -0.66%
ARW ARROW ELECTRONICS 5.75 9.8%
BBSI BARRETT BUSINESS SYSTEMS 5.83 55.21%
CVGW CALAVO GROWERS INC 5.96 3.17%
GSOL GLOBAL SOURCES LTD. 5.66 18.47%GBX GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC 5.78 2.96%
GMK GRUMA SA DE C.V. ADS* 5.69 -0.35%
HUM HUMANA INC 5.71 9.74%
JAH JARDEN CORP 5.85 33.17%
JOUT JOHNSON OUTDOORS, INC 5.89 4.22%
LAD LITHIA MOTORS INC 5.76 10.97%
MHO M/I HOMES 5.89 21.02%
OME OMEGA PROTEIN CORP 5.47 -10.37%
PKG PACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICA* 5.83 1.77%
REGI RENEWABLE ENERGY GROUP INC. 5.64 -7.31%
VLKAY VOLKSWAGEN AG ADR 5.74 17.17%
FDIC.CASH CASH / MONEY MARKET 1.98 N/A
Portfolio Changes and Rationale
Updated January 7, 2014
Symbol Security Change Since Purchase Reasoning Research Link Sale Date
CMLS CUMULUS MEDIA 47%Far Exceeded appreciation expectations
Currently a negative ROE at -20.6%Relatively high P/E at 24X
CMLS Report 1/6/2014
LIOX LIONBRIDGE TECHNOLOGIES INC -1.02%
Lack of performanceHigh P/E at 41.48X relative to ROE at
12.7%LIOX Report 1/6/2014
ASGN ON ASSIGNMENT INC 28%Exceeded target price
P/E of 30XROE below minimum @ 8.5%
ASGN Report 1/6/2014
-Sales-
Symbol Security Change Since Purchase Reasoning Research Link Purchase Date
AFSI AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES INC -0.66%
Strong ROE Performance at 18% - 23%Reasonable valuation at a 10x P/E
Attractive P&C Ins niche player w/ great Combined Ratios
AFSI Report 1/6/2014
GMK GRUMA SA DE C.V. -0.35%
ROE @ 13% relative to ind avg of 9%Strong earnings growth of 340% in 2013
Mexican producer of corn flour, wheat flour, tortillas and other products
GMK Report 1/6/2014
PKG Packaging Corp of America 1.77%
ROE @ 27%Strong EPS Growth @ 15%
ROE below minimum @ 8.5%One of the largest producers of corrugated
packaging in the US.
PKG Report 1/6/2014
-Purchases-