Análisis Acciones Southern Coppe (SCCO)

Sector: MaterialsSub-Industry: Diversified Metals & MiningPeer Group: Copper Mining

Summary: This integrated producer of copper operates mining, smelting and refining facilities in southernPeru, Mexico, and Chile.

Quantitative Evaluations

S&P Quality Ranking : B+

D C B- B B+ A- A A+

S&P Fair Value Rank: 4

1 2 3 4 5Lowest Highest

Fair Value Calc: $28.20 (Fairly Valued)

S&P Investability Quotient Percentile85%

1 Lowest Highest 100

SCCO scored higher than 85% of all companiesfor which an S&P Report is available.

Volatility: NA

Technical Evaluation: NA

Relative Strength Rank: Moderate57

1 Lowest Highest 99

| Price as of Jan 24,2014: $27.92 | 52-Week Range: $41.05 - $24.50

S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1.07% stoc

30-Week Mov. Avg.

10-Week Mov. Avg.

Relative Strength GAAP Earnings vs. Previous Year

Up Down No Change

Volume Above Avg.

Below Avg.

32

25

30

40

50

0

5

10

15

Vol.

Mil.

Options: ASE, CBOE

Investment Strategy

Key financial variables to consider in assessing the investment merits of anindustrial company are the following:

Sales: What is the trend? Is future sales growth expected to be greater than thepast 5-year and 9-year growth average? Accelerating sales growth ultimatelyprovides the fuel behind earnings growth.

Net Margin: As a key measure of company profitabilty, a rising net marginassesses management capability to wring out more net income from incrementalsales.

% LT Debt to Capitalization: A rising percentage implies greater financial risk, allelse being equal. Rising debt leverage without a concomitant rise in Return onEquity should raise warning signals of potential cash flow problems. Percentagesabove 40%-50% should also be considered a warning.

% Return on Equity: A key perfomance measurement of capital efficiencyassesses what investment returns management can earn on a company'sexisting capital base. A sustained percentage above 20% is considered aboveaverage.

Revenues/Earnings Data Fiscal year ending Dec. 31

Revenues (Million $)2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

1Q 1,623 1,806 1,602 1,219 622.0 1,4992Q 1,410 1,660 1,802 1,173 824.5 1,4623Q 1,385 1,552 1,746 1,258 1,152 1,4404Q -- 1,651 1,669 1,499 1,136 449.7Year -- 6,669 6,819 5,150 3,734 4,851

Earnings per Share ($)2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

1Q 0.59 0.73 0.55 0.45 0.09 0.632Q 0.44 0.66 0.77 0.37 0.21 0.613Q 0.41 0.26 0.78 0.43 0.37 0.474Q -- 0.63 0.62 0.57 0.43 -0.14Year -- 2.28 2.73 1.81 1.08 1.58

Next earnings report expected: Early February

Historical GAAP earnings are as reported.

Key Growth Rates and Averages

Past Growth Rate (%) 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 9 YearSales -2.19 22.39 5.28 18.87Net Income -17.48 29.76 4.00 21.61

Ratio Analysis (Average)

Net Margin 29.01 31.25 29.52 32.24%LT Debt to Capitalization 46.69 42.68 35.83 29.80% Return on Equity 44.07 47.88 41.65 45.61

Key Stock Statistics

Average Daily Volume 2.196 mil. Beta 1.49Market Capitalization $23.480 Bil. Trailing 12 Month EPS $2.07Institutional Holdings (%) 12 12 Month P/E 13.5Shareholders of Record 1,048 Current Yield (%) 2.44

Value of $10,000 Invested five yrs Ago : $25,101

Quantitative Stock Report

Southern Copper Jan 25,2014

NYSE SYMBOL:SCCO

S&P Quality Ranking: B+ Standard & Poor's Fair Value Rank : 4

Please read the required disclosures and Reg. AC certification on the last page of this report.This report was prepared by Standard & Poor's Quantitative Services.

Wall Street Opinions/Average (Mean) Opinion: Buy/HoldNo. of

Ratings% of

Total1 Mo.Prior

3 Mo.Prior

Buy 4 22 3 1Buy/Hold 6 33 6 6Hold 7 39 9 11Weak Hold 0 0 0 0Sell 0 0 0 1No Opinion 1 6 1 0

Total 18 100 19 19

Stock Performance

2010 2011 2012 2013 201480

100

120

140

160

180

200

SCCO S&P 1500 Div Metals & Mining

Company(%) Industry(%) S&P 1500(%)YTD Return -2.8 -11.7 -3.0One Year Return -30.9 -0.5 20.2Three Year Return (% Annualized) -8.4 -12.1 11.8Five Year Return (% Annualized) 20.2 24.6 17.1

Value of $10,000 Invested 5 Years Ago $25,101 $30,027 $22,063

Insider Moves

Insider Buys Insider Sells Price History

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '14

1

Dividend Data Dividend have been paid since 1996

Amount($) Date Decl. Ex. Div. Date Stock of Record Payment Date0.240 Jan.25 Feb.11 Feb.13 Feb.26 '130.200 Apr.18 May.6 May.8 May.21 '130.120 Jul.18 Aug.5 Aug.7 Aug.20 '130.120 Oct.17 Nov.5 Nov.7 Nov.21 '13

Company Financials Fiscal year ending Dec. 31

Per Share Data & Valuation Ratios ($) 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003

Tangible Book Value 5.51 4.64 4.36 4.38 3.78 4.18 3.97 3.59 3.33 2.49

Cash Flow 2.66 3.05 2.20 1.45 1.95 2.85 2.59 1.88 1.39 0.40

Earnings 2.28 2.73 1.81 1.08 1.58 2.48 2.28 1.57 1.23 0.25

Dividends 3.71 2.43 1.66 0.44 NA NA 1.69 1.05 0.39 0.08

Payout Ratio 163% 89% 92% 41% NA NA 74% 67% 32% 32%

Prices:High 39.44 49.82 48.91 36.11 NA NA 19.25 11.72 9.20 8.19

Prices:Low 27.72 22.34 25.29 12.47 NA NA 10.92 6.82 4.30 2.36

P/E Ratio:High 17 18 27 33 NA NA 8 7 7 33

P/E Ratio:Low 12 8 14 12 NA NA 5 4 3 9

Income Statement Analysis (Million $)

Revenue 6,669 6,819 5,150 3,734 4,851 6,086 5,460 4,113 1,716 798

Operating Income 3,751 3,914 2,927 1,808 2,529 3,825 3,329 2,372 1,005 290

Depreciation 326 288 323 323 327 328 275 277 77.8 73.6

Interest Expense 172 187 161 97.6 106 108 85.5 86.4 10.4 13.2

Pretax Income 3,022 3,449 2,431 1,404 2,094 3,412 3,006 2,002 917 207

Effective Tax Rate 36% 32% 36% 33% 32% 35% 32% 29% 34% 41%

Net Income 1,935 2,344 1,563 929 1,407 2,216 2,038 1,400 597 121

Balance Sheet & Other Financial Data (Million $)

Cash 2,594 1,370 2,269 795 779 1,527 1,303 876 591 295

Current Assets 4,288 3,083 3,689 1,778 1,554 2,636 2,443 1,714 1,014 476

Total Assets 10,384 8,074 8,199 6,063 5,730 6,581 6,376 5,688 2,597 1,931

Current Liabilities 857 955 1,099 602 737 927 860 796 461 187

Long Term Debt 4,204 2,736 2,750 1,270 1,280 1,290 1,518 1,162 257 289

Common Equity 4,765 4,015 3,886 3,843 3,385 3,848 3,667 3,326 1,721 1,315

Total Capital 9,003 6,803 6,687 5,141 4,845 5,315 5,393 4,760 2,105 1,722

Capital Expenditures 1,052 646 409 415 517 316 456 471 172 49.8

Cash Flow 2,260 2,632 1,886 1,252 1,734 2,544 2,313 1,677 675 194

Current Ratio 5.0 3.2 3.4 3.0 2.1 2.8 2.8 2.2 2.2 2.5

% Long Term Debt of Capitalization 46.7 40.2 41.1 24.7 26.4 24.3 28.1 24.4 12.2 16.8

% Net Income of Revenue 29.0 34.4 30.4 24.9 29.0 36.4 37.3 34.0 34.8 15.1

% Return on Assets 21.0 28.9 21.9 15.7 22.9 34.2 33.8 25.4 26.4 6.6

% Return on Equity 44.1 59.3 40.3 25.7 38.9 59.0 58.3 45.6 39.3 9.4

Data as orig. reptd; bef. results of disc opers/spec. items. Per share data adj. for stk. divs. as of ex-div date. NA-Not Available. NM-Not Meaningful. NR-Not Ranked.

Office: 1440 East Missouri Avenue, Suite 160, Phoenix, AZ, 85014Tel: 602-264-1375Website: http://www.southerncoppercorp.comChrmn: G. Larrea Mota VelascoPres & CEO: O. Gonzalez Rocha

Dirs: L. M. Bonilla, E. Carrillo Gamboa, A. Casar Perez, E. Castillo SanchezMejorada, G. P. Cifuentes, X. Garcia de Quevedo Topete, O. GonzalezRocha, G. Larrea Mota Velasco, G. Larrea Mota Velasco, L. C. Morales, D.Muniz Quintanilla, J. Rebolledo Gout, C. R. Sacristan

CFO & Chief Acctg Officer: R. J. RuisanchezCOO: X. Garcia de Quevedo TopeteGeneral Counsel: J. Gomez AguilarFounded: 1952Domicile: DelawareEmployees: 12,085



NYSE SYMBOL:SCCO


Sub-Industry Outlook Stock Performance

Our fundamental outlook for the diversified metals &mining sub-industry for the next 12 months isnegative, as we believe weakening fundamentalswill keep pressure on base and bulk commodityprices, which, based on data from Platts, fell10%-15% in 2013.

We see rising supply for base and bulk commoditiesas the biggest threat the industry faces. The miningindustry has in the past three years undertakenrecord levels of investment (about US$150 billion in2011-2012) in projects to be introduced over the next2-3 years. Industry association International CopperStudy Group (ICSG) sees a 5.5% refined coppersupply increase in 2014, while the Australiangovernment Bureau of Resources & EnergyEconomics expects domestic supply for iron ore andmetallurgical coal (Australia global market shareabout 50% for both) to rise 22% and 4% this year. Inaddition, inventory levels for most base and bulkcommodities (e.g. aluminum and nickel) remainat/close to record levels.

Rising supply is coming just as Chinese demandappears to be slowing from the double-digit growthof the past decade. China accounted for 66%, 45%and 38% of global 2012 demand for iron ore,aluminum and copper, respectively. China???s 2013economic growth rate (7.7%) was its slowest in 14years, but more stimulus programs appear unlikelygiven new leadership???s aim of rebalancing theeconomy (i.e. less investment growth). For 2014, theWorld Steel Association estimates 3% growth inChinese steel demand (the main use for iron ore andmetallurgical coal) against 10-year average annualgrowth of 15%. For copper, the ICSG expects globalrefined demand to rise 4.4% in 2014 after an

estimated 0.1% drop in 2013.

Against this backdrop, the futures markets (basedon London Metal Exchange and SingaporeExchange data from Platts) expect prices for almostall base and bulk commodities to fall/stagnatethrough at least mid-2014, with 3-month futuresprices relative to January 17 spot prices down 7%for iron ore and stagnant for copper, aluminum andnickel. Based on current spot prices, we believeprices for a number of base and bulk commodities(e.g. aluminum, nickel and metallurgical coal) arebelow the breakeven cost of production for minersat the high end of the cost curve. This could providesome near-term price support if loss-makingproducers stop/suspend production.

Year to date to January 17, the S&P Global MiningIndex gained 1.8%, versus a 0.4% decline in the S&P1500 Composite Index and a 0.6% drop in the S&PMaterials Index. In 2013, the Global Mining index fell19.8%, while the S&P 1500 advanced 30.1% and theS&P Materials Index increased 25.4%.

--Johnson Imode

GICS Sector: MaterialsSub-Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

Based on S&P 1500 Indexes

Month-end Price Performance as of 12/31/13

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Sub-Industry Sector S&P 1500

NOTE: All Sector & Sub-Industry information is based on theGlobal Industry Classification Standard (GICS)



NYSE SYMBOL:SCCO


Sub-Industry : Diversified Metals & Mining Peer Group*: Copper Mining

Peer GroupStock

Symbol

Stk.Mkt.Cap.

(Mil. $)

RecentStock

Price($)

52Week

High/Low($) BetaYield

(%)P/E

Ratio

FairValue

Calc.($)QualityRanking

S&PIQ

%ile

Return onRevenue

(%)

LTD toCap(%)

Southern Copper SCCO 23,480 27.92 41.05/24.50 1.49 2.4 13 28.20 B+ 85 29.0 46.7

Freep't McMoRan Copper&Gold'B' FCX 34,015 32.77 38.09/26.37 1.63 3.8 12 44.20 B 28 16.9 14.2Rio Tinto plc ADS RIO 94,565 51.18 58.90/39.14 1.63 3.4 NM 50.10 NR 16 NA 25.6

NA-Not Available NM-Not Meaningful NR-Not Rated. *For Peer Groups with more than 15 companies or stocks, selection of issues is based on market capitalization.

Source: S&P.

Analysts' Recommendations

Wall Street Average

S

WH

H

BH

B

Number of Analysts Following Stock

Monthly Average Trend Buy

B

Buy/Hold

BH

Hold

H

Weak Hold

WH

Sell

S

No Opinion SCCO Trend

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

2012 2013

Stock Price ($)

20

30

40

50

10

20

30

Of the total 20 companies following SCCO, 18 analysts currently publish recommendations.

No. of Ratings % of Total 1 Mo. Prior 3 Mos. Prior

Buy 4 22 3 1Buy/Hold 6 33 6 6Hold 7 39 9 11Weak Hold 0 0 0 0Sell 0 0 0 1No Opinion 1 6 1 0Total 18 100 19 19

Wall Steet Consensus Opinion

BUY/HOLD

Companies Offering Coverage

BB&T Capital Markets

BMO Capital Markets, Canadian Equity

Research

BTG Pactual

Barclays

BofA Merrill Lynch

Citigroup Inc

Cowen Securities LLC, Research Division

Cowen and Company, LLC

Credit Suisse

Deutsche Bank

FBR Capital Markets & Co.

Goldman Sachs

HSBC

Inteligo SAB

Itau BBA

JP Morgan

Morgan Stanley

Morningstar Inc.

Santander

UBS Investment Bank

Wall Street Consensus Estimates

2012 Actual $2.28

2012 2013

S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J1.5

2

2.5

3

Estimates 2012 2013 2014

Fiscal Years Avg Est. High Est. Low Est. # of Est. Est. P/E2014 1.87 2.20 1.55 15 14.92013 1.91 2.04 1.82 16 14.62014 vs. 2013 -2% 8% -15% -6% 2%

Q4'14 0.50 0.56 0.42 4 55.8Q4'13 0.45 0.50 0.42 10 62.0Q4'14 vs. Q4'13 11% 12% 0% -60% -10%

A company's earnings outlook plays a major part in any investment decision. Standard & Poor's organizes the earnings estimates of over 2,300Wall Street analysts, and provides their consensus of earnings over the next two years. This graph shows the trend in analyst estimates overthe past 15 months.

Wall Street Consensus vs. Performance

For fiscal year 2013, analysts estimate that SCCOwill earn $1.91. For the 3rd quarter of fiscal year2013, SCCO announced earnings per share of$0.41, representing 21% of the total annualestimate. For fiscal year 2014, analysts estimatethat SCCO's earnings per share will decline by 2%to $1.87.



NYSE SYMBOL:SCCO


Source: S&P, Capital IQ Estimates, Inc.

GlossaryS&P Quality Ranking - Growth and stability ofearnings and dividends are deemed key elements inestablishing S&P's quality ranking for commonstocks, which are designed to capsulize the natureof this record in a single symbol. It should be notedthat, however, that the process also takes intoconsideration certain adjustments and modificationsdeemed desirable in establishing such rankings, Thefinal score for each stock is measured against ascoring matrix determined by analysis of the scoresof a large and representative sample of stocks. Therange of scores in the array of this sample has beenaligned with the following ladder of rankings:A+AA-B+NR

HighestHighAbove AverageAverageNot Ranked

BB-CD

LowerBelow AverageLowestIn Reorganization

S&P Fair Value Rank - Using S&P's exclusiveproprietary quantitative model, stocks are ranked inone of five groups, ranging from Group 5, listing themost undervalued stocks, to Group 1, the mostovervalued issues. Group 5 stocks are expected togenerally outperform all others. A positive (+) ornegative (-) Timing Index is placed next to the FairValue ranking to further aid the selection process. Astock with a (+) added to the Fair Value Rank simplymeans that this stock has a somewhat betterchance to outperform other stock with the same FairValue Rank. A stock with a (-) has a somewhatlesser chance to outperform other stocks with thesame Fair Value Rank. The Fair Value rankings implythe following: 5-Stock is significantly undervalued;Fair Value Rank. A stock with a (-) has a somewhatlesser chance to outperform other stocks with thesame Fair Value Rank. The Fair Value rankings implythe following: 5-Stock is significantly undervalued;4-Stock is moderately undervalued; 3-Stock is fairlyvalued; 2-Stock is modestly overvalued; 1-Stock issignificantly overvalued.

Funds From Operations (FFO) - FFO is Funds fromOperations and equal to a REIT's net income,excluding gains or losses from sales of property,plus real estate depreciation.

Fair Value Calculation - The current price at whicha stock should sell today as calculated by S&P'scomputers using our quantitative model based onthe company's earnings, growth potential, return onequity relative to the S&P 500 and its industry group,price to book ratio history, current yield relative tothe S&P 500, and other factors.

Investability Quotient (IQ) - The IQ is a measure ofinvestment desirability. It serves as an indicator ofpotential medium-to-long-term return and as acaution against downside risk. The measure takesinto account variables such as technical indicators,earnings estimates, liquidity, financial ratios andselected S&P proprietary measures.

Standard & Poor's IQ Rationale:Southern Copper

Proprietary S&P MeasuresTechnical IndicatorsLiquidity/Volatility MeasuresQuantitative Measures

Raw Score28161254

Max Value115

402075

IQ Total 110 250

Volatility - Rates the volatility of the stock's priceover the past year.

Technical Evaluation - In researching the pastmarket history of prices and trading volume for eachcompany, S&P's computer models apply specialtechnical methods and formulas to identify andproject price trends for the stock.

Relative Strength Rank - Shows, on a scale of 1 to99, how the stock has performed versus all othercompanies in S&P's universe on a rolling 13-weekbasis.

Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) - Anindustry classification standard, developed byStandard & Poor's in collaboration with MorganStanley Capital International (MSCI). GICS iscurrently comprised of 10 Sectors, 24 IndustryGroups , 67 Industries, and 147 Sub-Industries.

Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs)and American Depository Shares (ADSs) are net oftaxes (paid in the country of origin).

Required DisclosuresAll of the views expressed in this research reportreflect Standard & Poor's Quantitative Services'research models regarding the above issuer andsecurities. No part of Standard & Poor'sQuantitative Services compensation was, is or willbe directly or indirectly, related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in thisresearch report.

This report was prepared by Standard & Poor'sQuantitative Services ("SPQS"). SPQS is affiliatedwith various entities that may performnon-investment banking services for this company.Each such affiliate operates independently fromeach other.

Additional information is available upon request.

DisclaimerThis material is based upon information that weconsider to be reliable, but neither SPQS nor itsaffiliates warrant its completeness or accuracy, andit should not be relied upon as such. Assumptions,opinions and estimates constitute our judgment asof the date of this material and are subject tochange without notice. Past performance is notindicative of future results.

This material is not intended as an offer orsolicitation for the purchase or sale so any securityor other financial instrument. Securities, financialinstruments or strategies mentioned herein may notbe suitable for all investors. This material does nottake into account your particular investmentobjectives, financial situations or needs and is notintended as a recommendation of particularsecurities, financial instruments or strategies to you.Before acting on any recommendation in thismaterial, you should consider whether it is suitablefor your particular circumstances and, if necessary,seek professional advice.

For residents of Australia - This report is distributedby Standard & Poor's Information Services(Australia) Pty Ltd ("SPIS") in Australia. The entiretyof this report is approved by Stephen Biggar,Alessandra Coppola and Lorraine Tan who havereviewed and authorized the Fair Value model whichgenerates the content for this report.

Any express or implied opinion contained in thisreport is limited to "General Advice" and basedsolely on consideration of the investment merits ofthe financial product(s) alone. The information inthis report has not been prepared for use by retailinvestors and has been prepared without takingaccount of any particular person's financial orinvestment objectives, financial situation or needs.Before acting on any advice, any person using theadvice should consider its appropriateness havingregard to their own or their clients' objectives,financial situation and needs. You should obtain aProduct Disclosure Statement relating to theproduct and consider the statement before makingany decision or recommendation about whether toacquire the product. Each opinion must be weighedsolely as one factor in any investment decisionmade by or on behalf of any adviser and any suchadviser must accordingly make their ownassessment taking into account an individual'sparticular circumstances.

SPIS holds an Australian Financial Services LicenceNumber 258896. Please refer to the SPIS FinancialServices Guide for more information atwww.fundsinsights.com.au.



NYSE SYMBOL:SCCO


Source: S&P, Company Reports.

Economy & Finance

Análisis Acciones Southern Coppe (SCCO)