AIRO All Island Atlas Seminar 1: Economy

1

All-Island AtlasWorkshop 1 –

Economy & Labour Force

Justin Gleeson

Cavan 30/01/14Cavan, 30/01/14

Outline

• Labour Market

• Participation and Unemployment Rates

• Industry of Employment

• Occupations

• FDI and SMEs

• Where we work• Where we work

2

Labour Market

• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status (Q3, 2013)

RoI (‘000) NI (‘000) AI (‘000)

P 15+/16+ 3 592 8 1 430 5 022 8Pop 15+/16+ 3,592.8 1,430 5,022.8

Labour Force 2,182.1 868 3,050.1

Employed 1,899.3 803 2,702.3

Unemployed 282.9 65 347.9

Non-Labour Force 1,410.7 562 1,972.7

(Labour Force as a percentage of population 15+/16+)

Unemployment Rate 13% 7.5% 11.4%

Participation Rate 60.7% 60.7% 60.7%

Labour Market

• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status

• Participation Rate 2002 to 2013

66.0

60.6 60.8

61.6

63.1

63.9

64.764.2

62.3

61.0

60.4

60.259.9

59.458.8 60.0 59.9 59.8

58 9

59.7

61.3

61.5

60.7

59.0

60.0

61.0

62.0

63.0

64.0

65.0

rtic

ipat

ion

Rat

e P

op 1

5+/1

6+


58.9

55.0

56.0

57.0

58.0

Q3 2002 Q3 2003 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013

ILO

Par

RoI NI AI

3

Labour Market


• Participation Rate 2002 to 2013

75.0

60.6 60.8 61.6

63.163.9

64.7 64.2

62.361.0

60.4 60.259.9 59.458.8

60.0 59.8 59.9 59.858.9

59.7

61.3 61.5

60.7

68.1

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

arti

cip

atio

n R

ate

Pop

15+

/16+


53.6

45.0

50.0

Q3 2002 Q3 2003 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013

ILO

Pa

RoI NI AI AI Male AI Female

Labour Market


• Unemployment Rate 2002 to 2013

– ILO Unemployment must satisfy three conditions: not working in the

previous week, available for work, and actively looking for work

12.9

14.115.1 15.0

13.0

11.410.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

mp

loym

ent

Rat

e

(Unemployed as % of Labour Force)

4.44.9

4.4

4.6 4.8 4.7

7.1

5.7 5.9 5.2

4.2 4.2 4.5

6.67.6

6.97.8 7.5

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Q3 2002 Q3 2003 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013

ILO

Un

em

RoI NI AI

4

Labour Market


• International Comparisons - Unemployment Rate Sept/Aug 2013

27 630.0

27.626.6

17.2 17.116.3

14.0 13.6 13.112.5 12.2 11.9

11.3 11.1 11.010.4 10.2 10.1

8 910.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Un

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e

(Unemployed as % of Labour Force)

8.98.3 8.1 8.0 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.1 7.0 7.0

6.4 5.95.2 4.9

0.0

5.0

10.0

ILO

Labour Market


• Unemployment Rate 2002 to 2013 – Male v Female

20.0

5 7

7.6

14.0

15.1 15.3 15.4

13.3

7.8

8.99.7 9.9

9.18.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

plo

ymen

t R

ate

-M

ale

v F

emal

e

(Unemployed as % of Labour Force

5.05.7

5.1 4.8 5.1 4.9

4.4 4.33.8 4.0

4.4 4.24.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Q3 2002 Q3 2003 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013

ILO

Un

emp

AI Male AI Female

5

Labour Market


• Long term Unemployed

– Long term unemployed (12 months+) as % of total unemployed

35 5

46.4

56.9

62.5

59.0

37.3

42.538.1

47

40.3

39.842.7

45

48.551.4

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

nem

plo

ymen

t R

ate

29.4

35.5 34.3 34.3

30.1

29.4

24.0

33.429.8

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

2002Q2 2003Q2 2004Q2 2005Q2 2006Q2 2007Q2 2008Q2 2009Q2 2010Q2 2011Q2 2012Q2 2013Q2

Lon

g te

rm U

n

Ireland Northern Ireland United Kingdom EU 28

Labour Market


• Long term Unemployed

– Long term unemployed (12 months+) as % of total unemployed

70.7

65.5 65.1

59.056.4 56.1 55.7

51.449.5 49.3 48.8 48.5 47.1 47.0 47.0 46.3 45.4 44.4 42.8 42.2 42.1 40.8 40.2

37.3 36.5 36.1

28.725 230.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

empl

oym

ent

Rat

e -

Q2,

201

3

25.2 24.4

17.1 16.8

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

Lon

g te

rm U

ne

6

Labour Market


• Unemployment Rate at Regional Level – NUTS III

18 720.0

18.7

17.417.0

16.015.1

13.7

12.4 12.3

9.6 9.2

8.0

6.0

4.86.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

mp

loym

ent

Rat

e -

NU

TS

III

0.0

2.0

4.0

ILO

Un

em

Labour Market


• Unemployment Rate relative change ‘06 to ‘12, Regional NUTS III

245.7

331.8

257.7274.7

172.4

222.2

265.0

152 0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

e '0

6 to

'12-

NU

TS

III

152.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

+/-

in U

nem

plo

ymen

t R

at

7

Labour Market


• Unemployment Rate relative change ‘06 to ‘12, Regional NUTS III

32 7 34 0

99.9

52.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

men

t R

ate

'06

to '1

2-N

UT

S I

II

32.7 34.0

25.1

0.0

20.0

+/-

in U

nem

plo

ym

Labour Market – Mapping at Local Level


• Local level unemployment analysis

– Census NI: ILO (three conditions – not working previous week,

available and looking for work)

– Census RoI: Principal Economic Status (single census question: at work,

unemployed, homemaker etc)

• Re-classification undertaken by CSO to adjust PES unemployment rates to

ILO rates

– PES V ILO from Regional level QNHS results (2002 and 2011)

– 2002 Census results available for PES and ILO at ED level

» 2011 ED PES/ILO distribution

» Translated PES to ILO of every SA within parent ED

8

Labour Market - Unemployment

• 2011 ILO (NI) v PES (RoI)

• NI: 6.9%

• RoI: 19%


• 2011 ILO (NI) v ILO (RoI)

• NI: 6.9%

• RoI: 15%

9



10


Male Female

Industry of Employment


• General Industrial Classification of Economic Activity – NACE Rev 2

– Industry of where a person is engaged

– Occupation deals with particular work performed

• Small Area level data

– Northern Ireland – NACE Rev 2

– Republic of Ireland – NACE Rev 1 (time series)

» Reclassifed by CSO to NACE Rev 2

18 C t i (i l di ‘Oth ’)– 18 Categories (including ‘Other’)

» Agriculture, Mining, Manufacturing, Construction, Wholesale/Retail,

IT&Comm, Finance, Defence/Police, Education, Health, Transport.......

– Residence based, not type of industry in an area

» POWSCAR, Origin-Destination

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• 2.6m in employment on the island in 2011

– 1.8m RoI (70%)

– 795k NI (30%)

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

mp

loym

ent,

201

1

0

50000

100000

150000

Ind

ust

ry o

f E

m



• 2.6m in employment on the island in 2011

– 1.8m RoI (70%)

– 795k NI (30%)

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

f E

mp

loym

ent,

201

1

0

2

4

6

Indu

stry

of

NI RoI

12


• Retail & Wholesale etc

• NI: 139,384 (17.5%)

• RoI: 262,206 (14.5%)

• All-Island: 401,590 (16%)

– More people work in this this sector than

any other

• Cities not the highest!

• Newtownabbey, Coleraine, Craigavon

d Li b th hi h t 19%and Lisburn the highest >19%

• Dublin City, DLR the lowest


• Retail & Wholesale etc

• Dublin v Belfast

13


• Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

• NI: 17,822 (2.2%)

• RoI: 91,526 (5%)

• All-Island: 109,348 (4.3%)

– Big increase in Agri jobs in RoI,

+10% since 2006

– Cavan, Monaghan and S-Tipp the

highest

M l d St b hi h t i NI– Moyle and Strabane highest in NI


• Construction

• NI: 65,059 (8.2%)

• RoI: 87,371 (4.8%)

• All-Island: 152,430 (6.1%)

– Major drop off in RoI since ‘06

• Decline of 125k jobs (-58% )

– Magherafelt, Limavady and Newry

highest >13%

– Monaghan, Wexford, Meath and

Cavan highest in RoI

14


• Information and Communications

• NI: 20,267 (2.5%)

• RoI: 68,531 (3.8%)

• All-Island: 88,798 (3.5%)

– Change in this sector

• Telecomms -20%

• Computer related +14.5%

– Very strong linkages with cities and

commuter areas


15


• Manufacturing

• NI: 77,072 (9.7%)

• RoI: 183,692 (10.2%)

All I l d 260 764 (10 4%)• All-Island: 260,764 (10.4%)

– Some areas very dependent on this

sector

• Dungannon, Waterford (City and

County), Craigavon and

CookstownCookstown

• Parts of Donegal, Limerick/Kerry,

Monaghan


• Professional, scientific and technical

• Legal, Accounting, Technical

consultancy, R&D, Advertising etc

• NI: 4.6% (36,277)

• RoI: 5.1% (60,716)

• All-Island: 4.9% (129,145)

– High concentrations in cities

• DLR, Dublin City, Belfast, Wicklow

and North Down the highestand North Down the highest

16


Occupation

• Occupation of Employment

• Based on UK Standard Occupational Classification

– Modifications to adjust the Irish labour market conditions

– Occupation classification is determined by the kind of work he/she

performs

» Nature of the industry/business/service has no bearing on

classification

» ‘Clerk’ covers a person employed in manufacturing, commerce,

banking, public admin etc

• Persons ‘At Work’ by Occupation in NI

• Persons ‘At Work’ or ‘Unemployed’ by Occupation in RoI

– Re-classified for ‘At Work’ only

– Some confidentiality issues, data compressed at SA level

17

Occupation



– Breakdown of 9 classifications at ‘Broad level’

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

up

atio

n, 2

011

0

50000

100000

150000

Occ

u

Occupation



– Breakdown of 9 classifications at ‘Broad level’

10

15

20

25

pat

ion

, 201

1

0

5

Occ

up

RoI

NI

18

Occupations

• Managers, Directors & Senior Officials

• NI: 8% (63,900)

• RoI: 9.1% (152, 440)

• All-Island: 8.7% (216,340)

– Mostly living in close proximity to Dublin

and Belfast

• DLR, Wicklow, Fingal, Kildare, North

Down, Lisburn

Occupations

19

Occupations

• Professional Occupations

• NI: 17.2% (136,406)

• RoI: 19.5% (325, 832)

• All-Island: 18.75% (462, 238)

– Highest Occupation grouping

• 8 Districts/Counties > 20%

– More urban centre based with highest rates

in DLR, Galway City, Dublin City, Belfast,

Cork City

– Also high in commuter areas

Occupations

20

Occupations

• Skilled Trades

• NI: 14% (111,502)

• RoI: 15 4% (256 212)• RoI: 15.4% (256,212)

• All-Island: 14.9% (367,714)

– Largest rural occupation grouping

• 21 Districts/Counties > 20%

– Cavan, Kerry, Monaghan, Magherafelt,

Mayo, Cookstown the highestMayo, Cookstown the highest

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

• IDA Ireland (762 companies)

– 346 (45%) located in Dublin346 (45%) located in Dublin

» 388 (51%) located in GDA

– 101 (13%) in Cork

– 63 (8.3%) located in Border region

» ¼ of these in Louth

(830 i )• Invest NI (830 companies)

– Includes RoI companies 275 (33%)

– No location data available as yet

– IDBR (£££)

21

SMEs

• Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs)

• Small <50 employees

• Medium 50 to < 250 employees

• RoI

• 189,753 SMEs in 2010

– 98.7% Small

– 1.27% Medium

• NI

• 67,765 SMEs in 2012

– 98.5% Small

– 1.5% Medium

SMEs

• Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs)

• Small <50 employees

• Medium 50 to < 250 employees

• RoI

• 189,753 SMEs in 2010

– 98.7% Small

– 1.27% Medium

• NI

• 67,765 SMEs in 2012

– 98.5% Small

– 1.5% Medium

22

Travel to Work• POWSCAR

• Place of Work, School or College Census of Anonymised Records

• 2.78m O-D trips– 1.01m students

– 1.77m workers

• SA/ED to 250M grid/SA/ED

• Catchments to Cities/Towns

– 457k working in Dublin City

Travel to Work

• POWSCAR• Place of Work, School or College

Census of Anonymised Records

• 2.78m O-D trips– 1.01m students1.01m students

– 1.77m workers

• SA/ED to 250M grid/SA/ED

• Catchments to Cities/Towns

– 457k working in Dublin City

– Catchments to Meath Towns

• Destinations in NI (6,419)

– 250m grid/OA/WARDg

» Derry/Londonderry 40%

» Newry City 6%

» Enniskillen 4%

» Strabane 4%

» Belfast City 7.5%

23

All-Island Atlas

Thanks

Questions?

w: www.airo.iee: [email protected]

twitter: airo_nuim

24

Launch of Mapping Toolkit

• Launch of digital All-Island Atlas

• Integration into new AIRO site and ICLRD site

• Continued development and additional layers

Launch of Mapping Toolkit

• Launch of All-Island Atlas

• Integration into new AIRO site and ICLRD site

• AIRO Data Store

25

Data Days - QGIS

6th March – Planning

3rd April – Economy

Two additional open invite days at AIRO, NUIM

Hard back Atlas

Housing seminar (NUIM), Health seminar (CCBS), Deprivation (NUIM)

26

Thanks

Questions?

w: www.airo.iee: [email protected]

twitter: airo_nuim

Economy & Finance

AIRO All Island Atlas Seminar 1: Economy