7 January technical market report

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  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6

    Daily Technical Trader Qatar

    Wednesday, 07 January 2015

    Stocks Covered Today

    Ticker Price Target

    DHBK 54.00 55.00

    GWCS 53.50 51.90

    QSE Index

    Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

    Last 11,811.75 -1.5 9.1

    Resistance/Support

    Levels 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 12,000 12,200 12,430

    Support 11,800 11,430 10,900

    QSE Index Commentary

    Overview: Moving averages are above the Index level on the daily and the intraday charts. This means that the overall trend is still down, and it is expected to continue this way. Moreover, indicators are providing mixed signals. On the daily chart, indicators are still bearish as the MACD is below zero and still pointing down, while the RSI is trending down. On the other hand, the intraday chart is showing that the MACD is still below the zero but it is fighting its way upward. The RSI is breaking above the oversold area. Thus, over the very short-term, the index may experience a possible bounce. First Resistance Level: 12,000 If a bounce takes place, strong selling pressure may take place at this level. First Support Level: 11,800

    QSE Index (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    QE Summary

    Market Indicators 06 Jan 15 05 Jan 15 %Ch.

    Value Traded (QR mn) 475.9 309.2 53.9

    Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 654.3 662.4 -1.2

    Volume (mn) 11.7 7.4 58.1

    Number of Trans. 7,514 5,998 25.3

    Companies Traded 41 40 2.5

    Market Breadth 8:31 5:33

    QE Indices

    Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

    Total Return 17,617.11 -1.5 39.4

    All Share Index 3,035.74 -1.4 40.5

    Banks 3,081.74 -1.0 39.7

    Industrials 3,938.96 -0.9 42.5

    Transportation 2,237.15 -2.1 46.2

    Real Estate 2,124.78 -3.6 36.5

    Insurance 3,739.61 -1.8 46.7

    Telecoms 1,408.12 -2.4 46.0

    Consumer 6,870.68 0.2 47.7

    Al Rayan Islamic 3,933.01 -1.5 40.3

    RSI 14 (Over Bought)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    RSI 14 (Over Sold)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    IHGS 98.80 -9.9 28.9

    QSE Index (30min)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6

    DHBK

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 54.00 -3.05 154,985

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 55.40 57.00 58.50

    Support 53.90 52.00 49.00

    Commentary

    Overview: The bank is in a clear downtrend at this point. However, considering that DHBK has dropped over 10% in the past couple of weeks to its recent low, the name could be in a temporary bounce mode. Although indicators are pointing down, a quick, risky trade is possible as the name formed a long legged candlestick in the last session. In the intraday chart, a long hammer was created (denoted in green oval). This shows indecision but over the very short-term. Expected Target Price: QR55.00 QR55.40 The name is exhibiting volatile action and a price increase to QR55.00 is possible. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR54.00 A break below will refute the recommendation.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6

    GWCS

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 53.50 -1.65 157,029

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 55.00 55.80 58.30

    Support 53.10 51.90 50.40

    Commentary

    Overview: The name is in a clear short-term down trend. GWCS failed to break above the upper side of the downtrend channel, which means that the name could head lower. It is important to note that, at this point, GWCS is at an important support level above QR53.10. A break below that may drive selling pressure on the stock. Technical Indicators are on the bearish side. On the daily, MACD is below the zero line and the RSI is also on a downtrend just below its neutral area. Expected Price Retreat: QR51.90 QR50.40 A break below QR53.00 triggers the sell recommendation on the name.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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    Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

    Ticker Close 3rd

    2nd

    1st

    Pivot 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

    QSE Index 11,811.75 11,487.06 11,589.41 11,652.64 11,754.98 11,857.33 11,920.56 12,022.90 12,916.55 13,313.57 12,974.15

    Total Return 17,617.11 17,132.84 17,285.49 17,379.80 17,532.44 17,685.09 17,779.40 17,932.04 19,264.92 19,857.07 19,342.04

    All Share 3,035.74 2,957.63 2,982.15 2,997.30 3,021.82 3,046.34 3,061.49 3,086.01 3,283.84 3,374.88 3,294.67

    Al Rayan Islamic 3,933.01 3,806.82 3,844.85 3,868.34 3,906.36 3,944.39 3,967.88 4,005.90 4,332.80 4,499.38 4,329.50

    Banks & Financials Services

    MARK 40.75 38.98 39.56 39.91 40.48 41.06 41.41 41.98 47.52 51.38 50.67

    CBQK 65.50 62.90 63.82 64.38 65.30 66.22 66.78 67.70 70.72 70.81 68.83

    DHBK 54.00 50.40 51.70 52.50 53.80 55.10 55.90 57.20 57.52 58.81 59.80

    QIBK 100.20 95.40 97.31 98.49 100.40 102.31 103.49 105.40 104.64 110.12 100.69

    QIIK 78.70 74.23 75.57 76.40 77.73 79.07 79.90 81.23 83.07 85.70 84.04

    Insurance

    QATI 85.10 80.37 82.62 84.01 86.27 88.52 89.91 92.17 91.02 94.55 86.24

    Consumer Goods & Services

    MCGS 119.50 105.77 109.70 112.13 116.07 120.00 122.43 126.37 122.04 125.71 105.67

    Industrials

    IQCD 167.90 161.37 163.24 164.39 166.27 168.14 169.29 171.17 184.01 186.28 183.51

    QEWS 188.10 186.50 187.03 187.37 187.90 188.43 188.77 189.30 187.18 187.48 185.53

    GISS 90.90 87.50 88.72 89.48 90.70 91.92 92.68 93.90 106.48 113.68 104.38

    QIGD 37.50 36.63 37.05 37.31 37.73 38.15 38.41 38.83 44.06 50.86 55.53

    Real Estate

    BRES 38.80 37.33 37.87 38.20 38.73 39.27 39.60 40.13 45.17 43.13 41.10

    UDCD 22.95 21.78 22.13 22.34 22.68 23.03 23.24 23.58 25.14 27.12 25.94

    ERES 14.20 13.77 13.94 14.05 14.23 14.40 14.51 14.69 17.24 18.38 21.34

    MRDS 17.50 16.97 17.21 17.37 17.62 17.86 18.02 18.27 21.29 22.55 20.55

    Telecommunication

    ORDS 118.40 112.93 114.81 115.96 117.83 119.71 120.86 122.73 118.85 124.16 132.54

    VFQS 15.15 14.43 14.66 14.81 15.04 15.27 15.42 15.65 17.73 19.43 18.50

    Transportation

    QGTS 22.39 21.60 21.87 22.03 22.29 22.56 22.72 22.98 23.38 23.88 23.37

    QNNS 95.90 91.97 93.49 94.44 95.97 97.49 98.44 99.97 98.08 96.73 95.55 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6

    Definitions:

    Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

    and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

    lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

    compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

    Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

    Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

    security price to head lower.

    SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

    considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

    price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

    Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

    MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

    a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

    RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

    use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

    considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

    Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a securitys price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

    shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be use