3D Printer Wars:

An Industry

Primer Black Arbs: Research

09/12/2013

1

Table of Contents

• Concept (3)

• The Process Explained (4)

• The Market Ecosystem (5)

• 3d Printing Applications (6)

• Industries using 3d Printing Applications (7)

• Organizations utilizing 3d Printing (8)

• 3d Printing Methods (9-13)

• Market Size (14)

• Market Share (15)

• 3d Printing Industry in Context (16)

• Conclusion (17)

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Concept

To create 3-dimensional objects using an additive

process. This process builds the object by stacking

individual layers. Layers are thinly sliced horizontal

cross sections composed of various powders, metals,

plastics and alloys.

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The Process Explained

1. It begins with a digital computer aided design (CAD)

file created in software or scanned using input from

3d scanner(s). The software then formats the

design into the object layers to be sent to the

printer.

2. A 3d printer then constructs the object by stacking

the previously designed object layers. This is called

“additive manufacturing”. Compare that to

traditional subtractive processes including, cutting,

drilling, milling or machining.

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Market Ecosystem

• Manufacturers include: 3d Systems Corp (DDD), Stratasys (SSYS), Organovo (ONVO), ARCAM AB (AMAVF), Ex One (XONE) et al.

• Software Producers: Dassault Systemes SA (DASTY), Parametric Technology (PMTC), Autodesk (ADSK), Trimble Navigation (TRMB)

• 3d Scanners/Metrology: Align Technologies (ALGN), 3m (MMM), GE (GE), Faro (FARO)…

• Print and Deliver Services: Shapeways, Ponoko

• Collective Design/Model Repositories: ThingVerse, 3D Parts Database, 3D Warehouse

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3d Printing Applications

• Rapid Prototyping: fast design and construction of objects used for R&D purposes. Ex. Car Companies, Aerospace Industry

• Rapid Manufacturing: direct manufacturing of finished goods.

• Retail Customization: retail users can upload or input personal goods via internet for single or limited production runs

• Medical: development of medical uses in dental care, prosthetics, bio printed tissues, and organ R&D.

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Industries using 3d

Printing Applications

• Aerospace/Defense

• Architecture/Geo

• Arts/Entertainment

• Automotive

• Consumer

• Culinary

• Education

• Energy

• Healthcare

• Hobbyist

• Jewelry

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Organizations utilizing 3d

Printing

• NASA

• GE

• Nike

• Ford

• Mattel

• MIT

• European Union

• Southampton University (U.K.)

• NYU

• U.S. Army

• Boeing

• Xerox

• UPS

• Harvard

• North Carolina State

• Pfizer

• Knight Cancer Institute

• United Therapeutics

• University of Oxford

• Deloitte

• Et al…

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3d Printing Methods

• Stereolithography (SLA) – Invented by 3d systems

founder Charles Hull in 1986.

• SLA works by concentrating a beam of ultraviolet light

focused on surface of a Vat.

• Vat is filled with liquid photocurable photopolymer

(resin).

• UV laser beam draws out the 3d model layer by layer,

hardening the slice as light hits the resin.

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3d Printing Methods

• Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) – Invented by

Stratasys founder Scott Crump, late 1980’s.

• Object is produced by an extrusion nozzle extruding

small beads of melted thermoplastic material to form

layers that harden immediately.

• Most FDM printers print with ABS plastic, ex. Legos

which uses type PLA (Polylactic acid) which is

biodegradable.

• FDM and “Fused Deposition Modeling” are trademarked

terms.

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3d Printing Methods

• Fused Filament Fabrication (FFF) – RepRap process

similar to FDM but slightly different to avoid

trademark issues.

• Material is fed via filament from a spool of the material.

• Via filament FFF is able to construct the object

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3d Printing Methods

• Selective Laser Sintering (SLS) – Process developed

by Carl Deckard et al in the 1980’s.

• Uses powdered materials: polystyrene, ceramics, glass,

nylon, steel, titanium, aluminum, silver.

• When a laser hits the powder it is fused at that point

(sintered). All un-sintered powder remains available for

the next print job.

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3d Printing Methods -

Variations

• Selective Laser Melting (SLM) – similar to SLS but

fully melts the powder instead of fusing via a lower

temp

• Electron Beam Melting (EBM) – uses an electron

beam instead of the UV laser used in SLS process.

• Laminated Object Manufacturing (LOM) – layers of

adhesive coated paper, plastic, or metal laminates are

successively glued together and cut to shape with a

knife or laser cutter.

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Market Size

1.70 2.20

2.76

3.47 4.08

4.80

5.64

6.64

7.81

9.19

10.81

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E

Bil

lio

ns

3d Printing Industry Global Revenue Estimates

Global Revenue (lhs) Growth (rhs)

Wohlers’, an industry consulting group, has estimated global revenues will approach $6 billion by 2017 and

10.8 billion by 2021. Here I have backed out the global growth rates based on publicly available excerpts

from their extensive report.

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Market Share

DDD

16%

SSYS

10%

XONE

1%

Arcam

1% Others

72%

3d Printer Market Share est.

DDD

SSYS

XONE

Arcam

Others

Using Wohlers’ estimated total industry revenue in 2012 of $2.2 billion dollars, we can back out an estimated market

share for some of the well known publicly traded manufacturers.

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3d Printing Industry in

Context

In 2011 the World Bank estimated global GDP at $70.4

trillion. Of this global manufacturing contributed almost

$12 trillion.

Of the ~$12 trillion in GDP contributed by global

manufacturing only ~$1.7 billion came from additive/3d

printing or 0.014%!

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011

$58,408.3

$11,963.1

% o

f To

tal G

lob

al G

DP

(in

Bil

lio

ns)

$ Contribution to Global GDP

GDP Total Global

Manufacturing

GDP All Other

Industries

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2011

$11,961.4

$1.7

% o

f To

tal G

lob

al G

DP

(in

Bil

lion

s)

$ Contribution to Global

Manufacturing GDP

3d Global

Manufacturing

GDP Global

Manufacturing ex. 3d

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Wrap-up

• The industry has existed for almost 30 years but recent advances in technology have led to rapid

innovation in retail, commercial, and medical applications that have the industry poised to almost

triple by 2017 (Wohlers).

• Two firms dominate the industry based on sales – 3d Systems (16% market share), Stratasys (10%).

But there are many other firms contributing to the 3d printing ecosystem that may or may not be

public, and may or may not be exclusive to the 3d printing industry.

• Currently manufacturers are looking to find ways to integrate additive manufacturing in their

production process as they have found significant cost reductions in prototyping, industrial design,

custom orders, and some direct production of finished goods.

• The industry is in its infancy and has immense potential for growth on an absolute and relative basis.

As a percentage of global manufacturing GDP, 3d printing contributed a paltry 0.014% in 2011. As

new applications are discovered and old processes refined a hypothetical increase to 1% of global

manufacturing GDP would grow the market to $119 billion or 70x larger than it was in 2011.

• 3d printing has the manufacturing sector’s support due to its actualized and unrealized potential to

reduce production and time costs; to innovate, customize, and prototype; to create previously

impossible design structures, and this presents a tailwind to a secular growth opportunity similar to

the pc revolution.

• Perhaps the greatest commercial opportunity lies within the healthcare sector. Currently researchers

at universities, firms, and public institutions are collaborating to develop 3d printers capable of

replicating the native structure and processes of cells and eventually organs. The potential in this

area to improve the human condition cannot be overstated.

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BLACK ARBS

Brian Christopher BCR@BlackArbs.com

BlackArbs.com

617.642.9211

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