30 November Daily technical trader

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  • 1. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6Daily Technical Trader QatarSunday, 30 November 2014Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Direction Tgt.MARK48.25Down45.00QEWS190.00Up208.00QSE Index Price % Ch. Vol. (mn)Last13,330.93-1.46.5Resistance/Support (Daily) Levels 1st 2nd 3rdResistance13,45013,55013,660Support13,24012,90012,500QSE Index CommentaryOverview:The Index made another low last session but ended at 13,330.93 on strong support. However, the daily chart reveals that the Index is going through a correction that might continue further. This continuation will be confirmed if the Index trades below 13,180. The Index may rebound to the 13,450 level but we recommend traders to sell this bounce as we see several bearish signals on both the daily and the intra-day charts.Expected Target: 13,400Sell the bounces on the Index.Suggested Stop-Loss: 13,200Closing below means the expected continuation of the bearish leg to the 13,000 level.QSE Index (Daily)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS ResearchQE Summary Market Indicators 27 Nov 14 26 Nov 14 %Ch.Value Traded (QR mn)828.5650.127.4Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn)727.7735.1-1.0Volume (mn) of Trans.7,2625,27237.7Companies Traded42420.0Market Breadth4:3722:18QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSITotal Return19,882.96-1.444.4All Share Index3,388.77-1.446.0Banks3,412.26-1.052.7Industrials4,391.82-0.539.2Transportation2,391.91-0.853.7Real Estate2,640.98-3.445.4Insurance3,881.93-1.638.9Telecoms1,445.87-1.034.3Consumer7,429.57-3.264.5Al Rayan Islamic4,482.20-2.146.6RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSIIHGS203.902.874.3RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSINLCS23.24-4.126.1QIGD45.00-1.530.7QSE Index (30Min)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

2. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6MARK Price % Ch. VolumeLast48.25-3.211,705,749Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1st 2nd 3rdResistance50.0051.5052.50Support47.2045.0040.50CommentaryOverview:The Shariah compliant bank is at a critical level. It experienced a sharp drop over the past six sessions, losing almost 8.0% from the previous peak. The bank is showing bearish momentum over the medium term and we expect this bearishness to continue due to multiple technical factors. The RSI on the weekly chart is showing a drop below the neutral line. The MACD, although still above zero, is pointing downwardsand its Histogram is also showing weak signals. On the daily, the bank is in a short-term downtrend and this may continue as the price closed below all of its SMAs. The MACD is below the zero line and has intercepted its signal line to the negative. All the previous suggests the bank is expected to experience further weakness.Expected Target: QR45.00Any bounce for the name may be used to offload previous positions. The expected target might be reached if the QR47.40 is breached.(Weekly)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Daily)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research 3. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6QEWS Price % Ch. VolumeLast190.00-0.6851,891Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1st 2nd 3rdResistance194.50196.50208.70Support188.70187.30185.00CommentaryOverview:The name made a symmetrical triangle, which is a continuation pattern for the bullish movement it experienced over the past year. The weekly chart shows a possible cross of the MACD against its signal line upward. The RSI is at the neutral area. On the daily, the MACD is showing some weakness as the name is going through price stability and making a possible range over the short term. MACD, nonetheless, is still over the zero line. The previous suggests the following:Consolidation may take place between the QR190.00 and the QR187.00 levels. This consolidation can be used to build positions poised for further rise over the medium term.Expected Target: QR208.00Consolidation above the QR187.00 can be used to accumulate. A break above the QR190.00 should confirm the pattern.Suggested Stop-Loss: QR185.00A break below the level breaches the lower boundary of the triangle, which is a confirmation that the pattern was a bull trap.(Weekly)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Daily)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research 4. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3rd 2nd 1st Pivot 1st 2nd 3rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMAQSE Index13,518.3513,370.7113,413.0113,439.14 13,481.4413,523.7413,549.8713,592.1713,730.0413,273.0912,635.70Total Return20,162.5019,942.2920,005.3820,044.36 20,107.4520,170.5420,209.5220,272.6120,478.2219,796.2218,704.59All Share3,435.943,402.673,412.203,418.09 3,427.623,437.153,443.043,452.573,470.453,357.113,195.69Al Rayan Islamic4,580.224,540.874,552.254,559.28 4,570.674,582.054,589.084,600.474,661.114,483.634,096.10 Banks & Financial ServicesMARK49.8548.8549.1449.31 49.6049.8950.0650.3554.9854.2148.32CBQK73.9072.6373.0973.37 73.8374.2974.5775.0371.3769.0566.85DHBK59.8058.2058.6658.94 59.4059.8660.1460.6060.0659.2361.27QIBK105.80104.60105.17105.53 106.10106.67107.03107.60115.97107.6494.39QIIK85.0084.0784.6084.93 85.4786.0086.3386.8788.5685.9681.50 InsuranceQATI92.5090.1791.3192.02 93.1794.3195.0296.1798.4591.4479.90 Consumer Goods & ServicesMCGS133.80131.40132.09132.51 133.20133.89134.31135.00129.47111.7191.13 IndustrialsIQCD189.50186.10187.17187.83 188.90189.97190.63191.70189.77183.34183.55QEWS191.30188.57189.64190.30 191.37192.44193.10194.17187.81186.50181.17GISS112.80107.00108.87110.03 111.90113.77114.93116.80120.98111.9495.19QIGD45.7044.0344.7645.21 45.9346.6647.1147.8356.9157.1156.10 Real EstateBRES50.3048.8349.2549.51 49.9350.3550.6151.0341.1040.7937.99UDCD27.4526.9527.1427.26 27.4527.6427.7627.9528.8127.5325.13ERES18.5018.2418.3518.42 18.5318.6418.7118.8219.5020.5921.27MRDS22.6922.3322.4922.58 22.7422.9022.9923.1523.9921.4318.54 TelecommunicationORDS117.50114.70115.85116.55 117.70118.85119.55120.70129.14131.94139.07VFQS18.1517.5817.7617.86 18.0318.2118.3118.4821.1620.2717.20 TransportationQGTS24.0823.6723.8023.89 24.0324.1624.2524.3924.3223.8022.91QNNS101.7098.1099.1799.83 100.90101.97102.63103.7095.5594.3594.18Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price 5. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6Definitions:Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower.SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels.Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a securitys price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels. 6. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 6ContactsSaugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan KeushgerianHead of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research AnalystTel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509saugata.sarkar@qnbf