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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Tuesday, 25 November 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Direction Tgt.

KCBK 22.50 Flat 23.40

SIIS 17.80 Down 18.50

QSE Index

Price % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 13,690.02 -0.5 5.9

Resistance/Support (Daily)

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 13,700 13,800 14,000

Support 13,660 13,550 13,450

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: As expected, the market ended last session on a softer note. As the Index dipped below the 13,700 level, with the RSI on the intraday bouncing off the oversold area, it may strive for a comeback and close above the 13,800 level. The 13,800 resistance level proved its strength against the bulls and this softness will continue if the Index fails to close above the 13,800. Expected Target: 13,800 On most indicators, a potential move upward is losing steam. However, it is still possible for bulls to come into play and lift the market up for daily traders. Suggested Stop-loss: 13,660 A drop below this level could drag the Index another 100 points south.

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 24 Nov 14 23 Nov 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 862.6 599.5 43.9

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 742.4 745.9 -0.5

Volume (mn) 11.1 7.9 40.5

Number of Trans. 7,933 5,673 39.8

Companies Traded 41 40 2.5

Market Breadth 8:28 9:28 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 20,418.54 -0.5 52.5

All Share Index 3,473.34 -0.5 54.4

Banks 3,454.38 -0.6 57.8

Industrials 4,506.68 -0.4 48.3

Transportation 2,413.31 -0.7 59.5

Real Estate 2,762.52 -1.0 53.2

Insurance 4,048.47 -1.4 54.6

Telecoms 1,510.61 1.5 35.6

Consumer 7,707.77 0.0 68.1

Al Rayan Islamic 4,636.16 -0.4 53.9

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30Min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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KCBK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 22.50 -0.66 71,625

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 22.70 23.40 24.00

Support 22.40 22.00 21.00

Commentary

Overview: The bank is experiencing a medium-term symmetrical triangle. Also, on the hourly chart, KCBK’s price formed a pennant (a compressed triangle). Both are continuation patterns for their respective previous moves, which in this case is upward. The only issue the name is facing is that the price is trading inside the boundaries of both formations. The good news is that indicators imply a possible break from these formations. If a break does take place, this will signify a strong bullish leg looking at QR23.40 for a first target. The MACD on both time frames is above the zero line. The RSI on the daily chart is bullish, and on the hourly is at the neutral zone. The SMAs on both time frames are below the price. All the previous indicate good odds of a bullish breakout. Expected Target: QR23.40 A breach above the QR22.70 level for at least an hour with high volumes is needed to validate the breakout. Suggested Stop-loss: QR22.40 A break below the level indicates another trip to the lower side of the symmetrical triangle.

KCBK (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

KCBK (Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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SIIS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 17.80 -0.11 190,702

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 18.00 18.60 18.80

Support 17.50 17.00 16.50

Commentary

Overview: SIIS has gone through a correction and lost around 6.2% over the past two weeks. The overall short-term trend looks bearish but traders can take advantage of any price bounces. The above mentioned correction is experiencing a possible end as the name has stabilized above the QR17.50 price level for the past three sessions. Although the MACD is below the zero line, it is flattening out on the daily chart. On the hourly chart, the MACD’s direction is more clear on the upside, supporting a short term rise in price. The RSI, both on the daily and the hourly charts, is stabilizing around the neutral zone. Expected Target: QR18.50 The projected target needs a strong price break above the QR18.00 level. Suggested Stop-loss: QR17.60 A drop below this level could drag the price further to the QR17.00 level followed by the QR16.50 price level.

SIIS (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

SIIS (Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 13,690.02 13,460.93 13,552.90 13,609.72 13,701.69 13,793.66 13,850.48 13,942.45 13,730.04 13,273.09 12,635.70

Total Return 20,418.54 20,076.85 20,214.03 20,298.78 20,435.95 20,573.13 20,657.88 20,795.05 20,478.22 19,796.22 18,704.59

All Share 3,473.34 3,420.45 3,442.23 3,455.69 3,477.47 3,499.25 3,512.71 3,534.49 3,470.45 3,357.11 3,195.69

Al Rayan Islamic 4,636.16 4,552.82 4,586.44 4,607.20 4,640.82 4,674.44 4,695.20 4,728.82 4,661.11 4,483.63 4,096.10

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 50.40 48.60 49.12 49.43 49.95 50.47 50.78 51.30 54.98 54.21 48.32

CBQK 74.80 73.33 73.87 74.20 74.73 75.27 75.60 76.13 71.37 69.05 66.85

DHBK 61.30 59.97 60.43 60.71 61.17 61.63 61.91 62.37 60.06 59.23 61.27

QIBK 108.00 104.20 105.65 106.55 108.00 109.45 110.35 111.80 115.97 107.64 94.39

QIIK 86.00 83.87 84.71 85.23 86.07 86.91 87.43 88.27 88.56 85.96 81.50 Insurance

QATI 96.00 95.00 95.57 95.93 96.50 97.07 97.43 98.00 98.45 91.44 79.90

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 132.60 129.53 130.87 131.70 133.03 134.37 135.20 136.53 129.47 111.71 91.13 Industrials

IQCD 195.00 193.00 193.96 194.55 195.50 196.46 197.05 198.00 189.77 183.34 183.55

QEWS 194.00 189.73 190.96 191.71 192.93 194.16 194.91 196.13 187.81 186.50 181.17

GISS 117.00 109.40 112.69 114.71 118.00 121.29 123.31 126.60 120.98 111.94 95.19

QIGD 46.00 45.00 45.38 45.62 46.00 46.38 46.62 47.00 56.91 57.11 56.10 Real Estate

BRES 50.70 48.03 49.18 49.89 51.03 52.18 52.89 54.03 41.10 40.79 37.99

UDCD 27.95 27.52 27.65 27.73 27.87 28.00 28.08 28.22 28.81 27.53 25.13

ERES 18.69 18.38 18.55 18.65 18.81 18.98 19.08 19.24 19.50 20.59 21.27

MRDS 22.99 22.60 22.77 22.87 23.05 23.22 23.32 23.50 23.99 21.43 18.54 Telecommunication

ORDS 121.90 116.70 118.19 119.11 120.60 122.09 123.01 124.50 129.14 131.94 139.07

VFQS 18.60 17.97 18.22 18.37 18.61 18.86 19.01 19.25 21.16 20.27 17.20 Transportation

QGTS 24.24 23.93 24.05 24.12 24.24 24.36 24.43 24.55 24.32 23.80 22.91

QNNS 101.50 98.50 99.65 100.35 101.50 102.65 103.35 104.50 95.55 94.35 94.18 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

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