25 May Daily technical trader

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  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6

    Daily Technical Trader Qatar

    Monday, 25 May 2015

    Stocks Covered Today

    Ticker Price 1st

    Target

    ORDS 96.00 98.00

    NLCS 22.10 21.60

    QSE Index

    Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

    Last 12,443.42 0.0 11.7

    Resistance/Support

    Levels 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 12,600 12,800 13,000

    Support 12,400 12,350 12,150

    QSE Index Commentary

    Overview: The QSE Index closed flat and is not moving in any certain direction; technical indicators are growing flattish. As a result, we can only stipulate that the downward pressure is more prominent. Expected Resistance Level: 12,600 Expected Support Level: 12,400

    QSE Index (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    QE Summary

    Market Indicators 24 May 15 21 May 15 %Ch.

    Value Traded (QR mn) 439.5 497.1 -11.6

    Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 660.7 664.9 -0.6

    Volume (mn) 13.6 15.7 -13.8

    Number of Trans. 5,536 6,273 -11.7

    Companies Traded 41 41 0.0

    Market Breadth 11:24 24:13

    QE Indices

    Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

    Total Return 19,337.72 0.0 61.9

    All Share Index 3,313.24 -0.1 61.0

    Banks 3,217.45 -0.4 44.5

    Industrials 3,951.74 -0.6 41.7

    Transportation 2,461.12 -0.2 45.3

    Real Estate 2,996.99 1.5 72.0

    Insurance 4,770.26 -0.1 73.6

    Telecoms 1,288.51 -0.3 38.9

    Consumer 7,307.85 -1.1 45.4

    Al Rayan Islamic 4,734.85 -0.4 63.9

    RSI 14 (Over Bought)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    QATI 97.00 0.0 72.6

    IHGS 144.00 2.1 72.1

    ERES 20.90 2.4 70.2

    RSI 14 (Over Sold)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    MPHC 25.25 -1.0 24.2

    MARK 45.05 -1.6 28.5

    QSE Index (30min)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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    ORDS

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 96.00 0.00 18,290

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 96.00 98.00 100.00

    Support 94.00 93.00 92.00

    Commentary

    Overview: Although the long term trend is down, ORDS created three Doji candlesticks in the past sessions. These indecision candles suggest balance of forces after a sharp drop. Price stability above QR94.00 is essential for a bounce. Expected Target Price: 98.00 QR100.00 A break above QR96.00 is needed to trigger the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR95.00

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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    NLCS

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 22.10 4.54 2,277,156

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 22.30 23.00 23.40

    Support 22.00 21.60 21.15

    Commentary

    Overview: NLCS has been trading in a range since the beginning of the year. Heavy resistance is expected around the current levels. We expect a correction is more likely given intraday indicators. Expected Price Retreat: QR21.60 QR21.15 A breach below QR22.00 triggers the sell recommendation.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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    Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

    Ticker Close 3rd

    2nd

    1st

    Pivot 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

    QSE Index 12,443.42 12,380.93 12,409.50 12,427.14 12,455.70 12,484.27 12,501.91 12,530.47 11,983.19 12,092.32 12,723.48

    Total Return 19,337.72 19,240.61 19,285.00 19,312.42 19,356.81 19,401.20 19,428.62 19,473.01 18,592.75 18,469.93 19,194.12

    All Share 3,313.24 3,298.91 3,305.74 3,309.96 3,316.79 3,323.62 3,327.84 3,334.67 3,199.66 3,180.80 3,282.02

    Al Rayan Islamic 4,734.85 4,712.02 4,723.02 4,729.81 4,740.80 4,751.80 4,758.59 4,769.58 4,491.88 4,362.76 4,440.33

    Banks & Financials Services

    MARK 45.05 44.38 44.75 44.97 45.33 45.70 45.92 46.28 47.50 46.87 49.36

    CBQK 56.40 56.13 56.25 56.32 56.43 56.55 56.62 56.73 57.16 59.66 62.03

    DHBK 55.60 55.00 55.23 55.37 55.60 55.83 55.97 56.20 52.94 54.88 56.86

    QIBK 106.00 104.93 105.24 105.43 105.73 106.04 106.23 106.53 101.78 103.25 106.87

    QIIK 79.50 79.03 79.30 79.47 79.73 80.00 80.17 80.43 79.68 81.53 83.71

    Insurance

    QATI 97.00 95.60 96.10 96.40 96.90 97.40 97.70 98.20 81.72 79.42 80.88

    Consumer Goods & Services

    MCGS 171.20 163.73 166.03 167.44 169.73 172.03 173.44 175.73 158.32 146.75 136.33

    Industrials

    IQCD 141.10 139.57 140.22 140.62 141.27 141.92 142.32 142.97 141.50 146.83 166.63

    QEWS 213.50 211.70 212.69 213.31 214.30 215.29 215.91 216.90 199.92 195.94 191.62

    GISS 79.90 77.97 78.54 78.89 79.47 80.04 80.39 80.97 87.56 93.19 103.91

    QIGD 52.70 51.83 52.33 52.64 53.13 53.63 53.94 54.43 45.25 43.09 47.29

    Real Estate

    BRES 50.80 49.60 50.10 50.40 50.90 51.40 51.70 52.20 48.27 47.20 45.14

    UDCD 23.79 23.38 23.51 23.58 23.70 23.83 23.90 24.02 22.32 23.21 25.30

    ERES 20.90 19.79 20.16 20.39 20.76 21.13 21.36 21.73 16.95 16.25 17.41

    MRDS 19.42 19.24 19.32 19.36 19.44 19.52 19.56 19.64 18.29 18.53 20.06

    Telecommunication

    ORDS 96.00 94.93 95.24 95.43 95.73 96.04 96.23 96.53 100.45 107.82 116.15

    VFQS 17.72 17.53 17.63 17.68 17.77 17.87 17.92 18.01 17.48 17.02 18.30

    Transportation

    QGTS 22.52 22.37 22.43 22.47 22.52 22.58 22.62 22.67 22.62 23.29 23.62

    QNNS 98.00 97.93 97.97 98.00 98.03 98.07 98.10 98.13 99.70 100.89 98.71 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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    Definitions:

    Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

    and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

    lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

    compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

    Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

    Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

    security price to head lower.

    SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

    considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

    price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

    Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

    MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

    a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

    RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

    use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

    considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

    Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a securitys price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

    shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

    Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

    levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

    Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

    Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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    Contacts:

    Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC

    Head of Research Head of HNI Conta