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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Monday, 22 December 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

QEWS 182.20 185.00

QIGD 38.80 40.00

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,029.59 7.6 11.7

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,200 12,430 12,800

Support 11,430 11,230 11,640

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The Index had a strong rebound yesterday supported by stability in oil prices. Over the short-term, this bounce should be treated exactly as such, just a throwback from a strong support. Index breached the strong resistance of 12,000 while indicators on different time frames are giving mixed signals. Thus, the activity on the Index is expected to be volatile. That said, there could be more upside movement for the Index and could test 12,430 level, but it should be treated very carefully as the market remains volatile. Expected Target Level: 12,200 This is our next upcoming resistance level. Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 10,900

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 21 Dec 14 17 Dec 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 1,260.0 643.1 95.9

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 661.7 618.6 7.0

Volume (mn) 26.1 14.1 85.1

Number of Trans. 9,437 7,846 20.3

Companies Traded 43 41 4.9

Market Breadth 41:1 25:12 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 17,942.03 7.6 42.5

All Share Index 3,066.99 7.5 42.6

Banks 3,175.87 5.2 47.0

Industrials 3,920.05 8.7 41.3

Transportation 2,213.98 9.1 45.8

Real Estate 2,165.38 10.0 34.1

Insurance 3,652.44 9.0 47.0

Telecoms 1,406.68 10.0 47.7

Consumer 6,676.68 9.9 43.4

Al Rayan Islamic 3,936.37 9.3 39.9

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IHGS 134.40 -8.1 24.8

DBIS 39.50 9.7 25.9

AHCS 11.51 7.6 27.5

ERES 14.65 10.0 32.6

NLCS 19.39 9.5 33.6

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QEWS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 182.20 9.96 127,719

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 185.00 187.00 189.00

Support 180.00 175.00 173.00

Commentary

Overview: QEWS jumped 10% yesterday and stayed at the top end of the channel, indicating bullishness in the stock. This could extend in the coming sessions. Indicators show that the RSI on the daily charts just broke above the oversold area. On the hourly charts, the RSI is still ascending above the neutral level. One issue facing this trade is the gap created (denoted in red) which could be filled if the price drops below the stop loss level. Thus, this trade should be a hit-and-run. Expected Price Target: QR185.00 This target is set at the resistance area which was heavily built up around the mentioned price. Suggested Stop-Loss: QR181.00 A drop below the above level could entice traders to sell their previous long positions that were built below the QR170.00 level.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QIGD

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 38.80 9.45 54,092

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 40.00 42.15 44.30

Support 35.90 33.00 32.30

Commentary

Overview: Just like most of the listed shares in Qatar Exchange, it experienced a sharp drop over the past three months. It lost over 47% from its September peak. The name is experiencing a bounce from the QR33.00 support level and this may continue over the next sessions. Volatility is wide in the market and QIGD is no different. As a result, this should be a quick trade and traders should be cautious in handling the name. Indicators shows that the name could continue further to the next resistance level of QR40.00 Expected Target Price: QR40.00 As mentioned, traders should be very careful in trading this idea as the trigger price to buy into the name will be above the QR38.80 price level. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR37.00 The stop loss level , if reached and breached down, then price could continue further down to fill the gap (denoted in red) till QR33.00 level and may continue even further to QR32.30.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,029.59 10,779.35 11,173.54 11,417.06 11,811.25 12,205.44 12,448.96 12,843.15 13,135.30 13,397.47 12,930.30

Total Return 17,942.03 16,077.30 16,665.23 17,028.45 17,616.37 18,204.30 18,567.52 19,155.44 19,591.17 19,982.20 19,258.54

All Share 3,066.99 2,763.11 2,857.59 2,915.96 3,010.44 3,104.92 3,163.29 3,257.77 3,333.73 3,392.27 3,282.36

Al Rayan Islamic 3,936.37 3,490.61 3,619.91 3,699.80 3,829.10 3,958.40 4,038.29 4,167.59 4,413.05 4,534.07 4,290.81

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 45.85 45.65 45.71 45.74 45.80 45.86 45.89 45.95 49.12 52.38 50.29

CBQK 67.90 65.10 66.06 66.65 67.60 68.56 69.15 70.10 71.54 70.89 68.63

DHBK 55.30 54.10 54.48 54.72 55.10 55.48 55.72 56.10 57.71 58.85 59.97

QIBK 96.50 96.50 96.50 96.50 96.50 96.50 96.50 96.50 106.59 110.56 99.13

QIIK 78.90 77.30 77.76 78.04 78.50 78.96 79.24 79.70 83.85 86.03 83.63

Insurance

QATI 85.50 80.43 81.88 82.78 84.23 85.68 86.58 88.03 93.02 94.71 84.85

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 103.40 103.27 103.30 103.33 103.37 103.40 103.43 103.47 123.51 124.96 102.76

Industrials

IQCD 174.50 170.30 172.21 173.39 175.30 177.21 178.39 180.30 187.03 186.52 184.35

QEWS 182.20 180.60 181.06 181.34 181.80 182.26 182.54 183.00 186.42 186.85 184.44

GISS 87.40 87.40 87.40 87.40 87.40 87.40 87.40 87.40 110.84 115.89 103.13

QIGD 38.80 36.30 37.04 37.51 38.25 38.99 39.46 40.20 46.51 52.26 55.81

Real Estate

BRES 39.05 37.18 37.72 38.05 38.58 39.12 39.45 39.98 44.57 42.86 40.57

UDCD 22.74 21.77 22.05 22.22 22.50 22.78 22.95 23.23 26.05 27.70 25.79

ERES 14.65 13.80 14.04 14.19 14.44 14.68 14.83 15.08 18.09 19.00 21.41

MRDS 17.77 17.01 17.23 17.36 17.58 17.80 17.93 18.15 22.09 22.69 20.20

Telecommunication

ORDS 117.70 115.03 115.80 116.27 117.03 117.80 118.27 119.03 120.40 125.15 133.66

VFQS 15.40 15.00 15.11 15.19 15.30 15.41 15.49 15.60 18.63 19.80 18.28

Transportation

QGTS 22.30 21.84 21.99 22.08 22.23 22.38 22.47 22.62 23.53 24.02 23.29

QNNS 94.00 91.27 92.30 92.94 93.97 95.00 95.64 96.67 97.66 96.26 95.35 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

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