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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Thursday, 20 November 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Direction Tgt.

DHBK 60.00 Up 61.20

QEWS 192.00 Flat 194.00

QSE Index

Price % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 13,901.08 0.7 8.8

Resistance/Support (Daily)

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 14,000 14,350 14,600

Support 13,800 13,700 13,660

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The Index broke away from the 13,800 resistance level. The highest level reached in the session was 52 points shy from target; then it settled back around the 13,900s. However, we believe that the Index will continue its march upward as indicators show. The Index closed above all SMAs, the MACD is taking off from the zero line, the RSI is also breaking away from the neutral zone and volumes confirmed the strength of the push. Expected Target: 14,350 Target is dependent on breach above the 14,000 level. Suggested Stop-loss: 13,700

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 19 Nov 14 18 Nov 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 1,112.0 815.8 36.3

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 751.9 748.8 0.4

Volume (mn) 16.5 12.1 36.4

Number of Trans. 9,033 8,491 6.4

Companies Traded 43 42 2.4

Market Breadth 29:11 23:15 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 20,733.32 0.7 56.0

All Share Index 3,522.44 0.6 57.5

Banks 3,504.19 0.8 59.9

Industrials 4,576.70 0.2 53.7

Transportation 2,460.72 0.4 66.8

Real Estate 2,811.03 0.8 54.0

Insurance 4,115.85 0.0 56.7

Telecoms 1,501.05 1.0 32.6

Consumer 7,764.26 1.0 71.6

Al Rayan Islamic 4,747.11 1.0 61.6

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IHGS 199.60 0.6 99.2

MERS 233.20 -2.7 90.0

GWCS 65.90 2.2 78.9

WDAM 71.00 0.7 77.1

AKHI 57.00 3.1 75.3

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QIGD 47.30 2.0 28.7

QSE Index (30Min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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DHBK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 60.00 0.50 363,367

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 60.00 61.20 62.20

Support 58.80 56.50 53.00

Commentary

Overview: On the daily chart, the bank made an ascending triangle. An ascending triangle is generally considered a continuation patterns for the previous price move. In this case, the previous move was an upward move. The indicators show positive momentum support a break above the triangle’s top barrier. The MACD is just moving above its zero line and the RSI got released from the neutral zone; both indicators are looking bullish on the daily and the hourly time frames. In addition, the price settled above its SMAs. Expected Target: QR61.20 – QR62.00 As long as the price stays above QR59.00, it is safe to accumulate in case of weakness. For risk-averse traders, a break above the top of the triangle is needed to confirm higher continuation of the price. The top, at this point, is QR60.10. Suggested Stop-loss: QR58.80 A break below signifies a level where price is below its SMAs, which is considered bearish.

DHBK (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

DHBK (Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QEWS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 192.00 1.05 95,092

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 194.00 196.50 200.00

Support 190.00 185.00 180.00

Commentary

Overview: Although QEWS has been trading in a range, the stock made an ascending triangle recently. On the daily, price is above its SMAs, MACD is above the zero line and the RSI is gaining momentum. The same can be said on the hourly chart. Thus, the price is expected to move higher and may breach the resistance of QR192.30 Expected Target: QR194.00 Just like DHBK, price weakness can be used to build positions as long as the stock does not dip below the suggested stop-loss. For a better confirmation, a breach above the QR192.30 is needed to confirm the breakout. Suggested Stop-loss: QR189.00 If price drops below the suggested level, then the price may start to coil to create a range.

QEWS (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QEWS (Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 13,901.08 13,738.77 13,794.24 13,828.51 13,883.99 13,939.46 13,973.73 14,029.21 13,730.04 13,273.09 12,635.70

Total Return 20,733.32 20,491.23 20,573.97 20,625.09 20,707.83 20,790.57 20,841.69 20,924.43 20,478.22 19,796.22 18,704.59

All Share 3,522.44 3,485.73 3,498.18 3,505.87 3,518.32 3,530.77 3,538.46 3,550.91 3,470.45 3,357.11 3,195.69

Al Rayan Islamic 4,747.11 4,683.16 4,701.48 4,712.80 4,731.12 4,749.44 4,760.76 4,779.08 4,661.11 4,483.63 4,096.10

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 51.40 49.33 49.94 50.32 50.93 51.54 51.92 52.53 54.98 54.21 48.32

CBQK 74.90 73.10 73.63 73.97 74.50 75.03 75.37 75.90 71.37 69.05 66.85

DHBK 60.00 59.67 59.78 59.85 59.97 60.08 60.15 60.27 60.06 59.23 61.27

QIBK 112.00 110.07 110.72 111.12 111.77 112.42 112.82 113.47 115.97 107.64 94.39

QIIK 88.50 86.70 87.39 87.81 88.50 89.19 89.61 90.30 88.56 85.96 81.50

Insurance

QATI 97.90 96.70 97.20 97.50 98.00 98.50 98.80 99.30 98.45 91.44 79.90

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 139.00 133.00 135.29 136.71 139.00 141.29 142.71 145.00 129.47 111.71 91.13

Industrials

IQCD 198.00 195.80 196.68 197.22 198.10 198.98 199.52 200.40 189.77 183.34 183.55

QEWS 192.00 190.13 190.67 191.00 191.53 192.07 192.40 192.93 187.81 186.50 181.17

GISS 122.50 118.50 119.65 120.35 121.50 122.65 123.35 124.50 120.98 111.94 95.19

QIGD 47.30 44.87 45.69 46.20 47.02 47.84 48.35 49.17 56.91 57.11 56.10

Real Estate

BRES 52.90 49.57 50.56 51.17 52.17 53.16 53.77 54.77 41.10 40.79 37.99

UDCD 27.20 26.57 26.78 26.91 27.12 27.33 27.46 27.67 28.81 27.53 25.13

ERES 19.00 18.64 18.78 18.87 19.01 19.15 19.24 19.38 19.50 20.59 21.27

MRDS 23.12 22.51 22.72 22.85 23.06 23.27 23.40 23.61 23.99 21.43 18.54

Telecommunication

ORDS 120.00 118.60 119.10 119.40 119.90 120.40 120.70 121.20 129.14 131.94 139.07

VFQS 19.00 18.36 18.54 18.66 18.84 19.02 19.14 19.32 21.16 20.27 17.20

Transportation

QGTS 24.30 23.77 23.93 24.03 24.19 24.35 24.45 24.61 24.32 23.80 22.91

QNNS 104.00 101.73 102.50 102.97 103.73 104.50 104.97 105.73 95.55 94.35 94.18 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

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