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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Tuesday, 18 November 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Direction Tgt.

CBQK 73.00 Up 74.00

GWCS 64.30 Up 64.85

QSE Index

Price % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 13,762.76 0.1 7.4

Resistance/Support (Daily)

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 13,800 14,000 14,350

Support 13,700 13,660 13,500

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The index is striving to break above the 13,800 level but with little luck thus far. Although indicators are generally on the neutral side, they are becoming more positively inclined as the hourly chart shows. Both the RSI and the MACD are pointing north but the movement needs to be supported by more volume. Expected Target: 14,000 This is only possible if a break above the 13,800 persists with high volumes. Suggested Stop-loss: 13,700 Decline below this level signifies further decline to the 13,660 then 13,500.

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 17 Nov 14 16 Nov 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 1,113.3 628.0 77.3

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 745.6 743.9 0.2

Volume (mn) 17.2 10.1 70.3

Number of Trans. 8,489 6,204 36.8

Companies Traded 42 43 -2.3

Market Breadth 17:23 16:23 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 20,527.03 0.1 53.8

All Share Index 3,489.62 0.2 55.0

Banks 3,442.77 0.2 54.6

Industrials 4,546.61 -0.4 53.6

Transportation 2,438.20 0.7 62.1

Real Estate 2,830.95 0.3 59.4

Insurance 4,119.52 1.3 50.9

Telecoms 1,488.71 -0.1 33.1

Consumer 7,618.96 1.2 64.0

Al Rayan Islamic 4,692.86 0.7 58.4

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IHGS 196.40 2.1 99.1

MERS 233.10 5.9 84.4

BRES 54.00 3.6 82.9

WDAM 71.00 4.3 74.4

GWCS 64.30 4.0 74.3

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QGMD 12.00 0.5 28.5

QSE Index (30Min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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CBQK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 73.00 0.00 306,238

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 74.00 74.90 77.00

Support 73.00 72.00 70.00

Commentary

Overview: The bank created a flag consolidation on the daily chart. In addition, it reached the QR73.00 support level; this level has proven to be a strong support over the past two weeks of trading. On the daily chart, the MACD is above the zero line, which is positive on the name. The RSI is in the neutral zone, caused by the flag. The hourly chart created a descending triangle, which is a continuation pattern to the up move the name undertook in October. The MACD histogram on the hourly chart is providing slight positive momentum, signaling a possible end to the consolidation and a possible start on a bullish move. Expected Target: QR74.00 – QR74.90 The current level is a good price to buy the name. Suggested Stop-loss: QR72.90 A break below this level will imply further continuation of the consolidation phase.

CBQK (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

CBQK (Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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GWCS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 64.30 4.05 774,179

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 64.85 69.50 71.25

Support 63.70 61.00 57.70

Commentary

Overview: The name is on a bullish move and is expected to continue over the short term. On the daily chart, the price is above all SMAs; the MACD is showing bullish momentum. The RSI is at the overbought area. But, in this case, contrary to the usual norm, the RSI is a bullish signal because the overall short term trend is positive. The same can be said on the hourly chart. Expected Target: QR 64.85 – QR66.00 A sustained break above the QR64.30 (for at least an hour) will indicate the continuation to the up move. Suggested Stop-loss: QR63.60 A price breach below this level may signal a short-term consolidation in the name. Such consolidation may reach the QR61.00 level.

GWCS (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

GWCS (Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 13,762.76 13,643.97 13,689.76 13,718.04 13,763.82 13,809.61 13,837.89 13,883.67 13,730.04 13,273.09 12,635.70

Total Return 20,527.03 20,349.86 20,418.15 20,460.33 20,528.61 20,596.90 20,639.08 20,707.36 20,478.22 19,796.22 18,704.59

All Share 3,489.62 3,463.01 3,472.84 3,478.92 3,488.76 3,498.59 3,504.67 3,514.51 3,470.45 3,357.11 3,195.69

Al Rayan Islamic 4,692.86 4,627.61 4,647.49 4,659.77 4,679.66 4,699.54 4,711.82 4,731.71 4,661.11 4,483.63 4,096.10

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 49.75 49.18 49.45 49.62 49.88 50.15 50.32 50.58 54.98 54.21 48.32

CBQK 73.00 72.00 72.46 72.74 73.20 73.66 73.94 74.40 71.37 69.05 66.85

DHBK 58.50 57.77 58.15 58.38 58.77 59.15 59.38 59.77 60.06 59.23 61.27

QIBK 108.60 106.53 107.45 108.02 108.93 109.85 110.42 111.33 115.97 107.64 94.39

QIIK 85.20 83.40 83.97 84.33 84.90 85.47 85.83 86.40 88.56 85.96 81.50

Insurance

QATI 98.50 96.50 97.07 97.43 98.00 98.57 98.93 99.50 98.45 91.44 79.90

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 130.00 123.87 126.08 127.45 129.67 131.88 133.25 135.47 129.47 111.71 91.13

Industrials

IQCD 197.00 194.33 195.10 195.57 196.33 197.10 197.57 198.33 189.77 183.34 183.55

QEWS 189.10 187.77 188.49 188.94 189.67 190.39 190.84 191.57 187.81 186.50 181.17

GISS 121.10 118.57 120.02 120.92 122.37 123.82 124.72 126.17 120.98 111.94 95.19

QIGD 46.70 44.57 45.52 46.11 47.07 48.02 48.61 49.57 56.91 57.11 56.10

Real Estate

BRES 54.00 51.20 52.04 52.56 53.40 54.24 54.76 55.60 41.10 40.79 37.99

UDCD 26.70 26.23 26.42 26.54 26.73 26.92 27.04 27.23 28.81 27.53 25.13

ERES 19.11 18.80 18.96 19.06 19.22 19.38 19.48 19.64 19.50 20.59 21.27

MRDS 23.50 23.05 23.31 23.47 23.73 23.99 24.15 24.41 23.99 21.43 18.54

Telecommunication

ORDS 119.00 117.27 118.07 118.56 119.37 120.17 120.66 121.47 129.14 131.94 139.07

VFQS 18.85 18.54 18.68 18.77 18.92 19.06 19.15 19.30 21.16 20.27 17.20

Transportation

QGTS 24.23 23.88 24.01 24.09 24.23 24.36 24.44 24.58 24.32 23.80 22.91

QNNS 102.70 100.90 101.66 102.14 102.90 103.66 104.14 104.90 95.55 94.35 94.18 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower

than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare

to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary depending on the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in to prevent the security from rising or causing the security

price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, and could be used as a smoothing tool,

an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.