17 November Daily technical trader

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  • 1. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6Daily Technical Trader QatarMonday, 17 November 2014Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Direction Tgt.IQCD196.70Up200.00KCBK22.20Flat22.38QSE Index Price % Ch. Vol. (mn)Last13,744.800.17.5Resistance/Support (Daily) Levels 1st 2nd 3rdResistance13,80014,00014,350Support13,70013,66013,500QSE Index CommentaryOverview:As expected, the index started the week on a weak movement. Market participants need a confirmation of higher volumes while pushing through the 13,800 level to break away from the ranging pattern. Indicators are flattening out vs. the price, showing neutral signs. The immediate support stands at 13,700 and that has not changed over the past month.Expected Target: 13,800Index will face sharp resistance and needs to break away from the mentioned mark to become bullish.Suggested Stop-loss: 13,700The stop-loss needs closing below the 13,700, at least on the hourly chart with higher volumes, for it to be confirmed.QSE Index (Daily)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS ResearchQE Summary Market Indicators 16 Nov 14 13 Nov 14 %Ch.Value Traded (QR mn)628.0666.4-5.8Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn)743.9742.40.2Volume (mn)10.111.1-9.0Number of Trans.6,2046,363-2.5Companies Traded43430.0Market Breadth16:2325:12QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSITotal Return20,500.240.153.3All Share Index3,482.610.254.3Banks3,434.310.154.0Industrials4,563.760.252.9Transportation2,420.69-1.371.7Real Estate2,821.940.956.8Insurance4,068.130.051.1Telecoms1,489.64-0.935.2Consumer7,531.720.960.1Al Rayan Islamic4,661.430.556.5RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSIIHGS192.301.399.0MERS220.202.282.2BRES52.102.880.6GWCS61.80-0.375.4QNNS102.50-1.074.9RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSIQSE Index (30Min)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

2. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6IQCD Price % Ch. VolumeLast196.701.0396,248Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1st 2nd 3rdResistance198.00200.00202.00Support194.50190.00187.50CommentaryOverview:IQCD is playing along its resistance of QR198.00. The name tried to breach the mentioned level more than 3 times over the past 3 months. Price is looking bullish; the MACD is above the zero line, the RSI is going in tandem with the price, and the drop in volume coincides with the price decline that took place over the past few sessions.Expected Target: QR200.00 QR202.00The prerequisite to reach the target price is a breakout from the QR198.00, preferably a close on the daily or at least on the hourly above that price.Suggested Stop-loss: QR194.50The price may retreat possibly on profit booking; but a dip below the QR194.50 is going to be an indication for a decline that may extend to the next support of QR190.00.IQCD (Daily)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research IQCD (Hourly)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research 3. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6KCBK Price % Ch. VolumeLast22.200.8251,513Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1st 2nd 3rdResistance22.2522.3822.65Support22.0021.8521.70CommentaryOverview:Over the medium term, the bank made a symmetrical triangle, and is trading inside of that price formation since last April. With the name stabilizing above the QR22.00, the level is becoming stronger and the price is bouncing off the lower support level of the triangle. The RSI and MACD are showing more bullish signs on the daily and the hourly time frames. Price is challenging the moving averages on the daily, and is already above the 50SMA and 100SMA on the hourly chart. That said, the name should maintain its positive behavior above the QR22.00 to meet the projected target.Expected Target: QR22.38 QR22.55A break above the QR22.25 is expected to bring more participants into play. This should increase the probability of reaching the first target mentioned above.Suggested Stop-loss: QR22.00A breach below the mentioned may drag the price to the lower boundaries of the triangle, specifically QR21.80 QR21.75 price levels.KCBK (Daily)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research KCBK (Hourly)Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research 4. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3rd 2nd 1st Pivot 1st 2nd 3rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMAQSE Index13,744.8013,595.2113,656.0713,693.67 13,754.5413,815.4013,853.0013,913.8713,730.0413,273.0912,635.70Total Return20,500.2420,277.1220,367.9020,423.98 20,514.7620,605.5420,661.6220,752.4020,478.2219,796.2218,704.59All Share3,482.613,450.023,462.763,470.62 3,483.353,496.093,503.953,516.683,470.453,357.113,195.69Al Rayan Islamic4,661.434,602.344,621.914,633.99 4,653.554,673.124,685.204,704.764,661.114,483.634,096.10 Banks & Financials ServicesMARK49.9549.1249.4449.64 49.9750.2950.4950.8254.9854.2148.32CBQK73.0072.4072.7472.96 73.3073.6473.8674.2071.3769.0566.85DHBK58.6058.3358.4958.58 58.7358.8958.9859.1360.0659.2361.27QIBK109.80107.87108.48108.86 109.47110.08110.46111.07115.97107.6494.39QIIK84.3083.4383.8984.17 84.6385.0985.3785.8388.5685.9681.50 InsuranceQATI97.0097.0097.0097.00 97.0097.0097.0097.0098.4591.4479.90 Consumer Goods & ServicesMCGS126.50123.23124.34125.03 126.13127.24127.93129.03129.47111.7191.13 IndustrialsIQCD196.70194.50195.30195.80 196.60197.40197.90198.70189.77183.34183.55QEWS189.50186.90188.20189.00 190.30191.60192.40193.70187.81186.50181.17GISS123.00120.60121.67122.33 123.40124.47125.13126.20120.98111.9495.19QIGD48.0047.0047.5747.93 48.5049.0749.4350.0056.9157.1156.10 Real EstateBRES52.1049.3050.1050.60 51.4052.2052.7053.5041.1040.7937.99UDCD26.7526.3826.5626.66 26.8327.0127.1127.2828.8127.5325.13ERES19.2918.9619.1019.18 19.3119.4519.5319.6619.5020.5921.27MRDS23.9223.4723.6823.81 24.0224.2324.3624.5723.9921.4318.54 TelecommunicationORDS119.10116.30117.56118.34 119.60120.86121.64122.90129.14131.94139.07VFQS18.8518.4418.6318.74 18.9219.1119.2219.4021.1620.2717.20 TransportationQGTS24.1323.4523.7723.97 24.2924.6124.8125.1324.3223.8022.91QNNS102.5098.63100.31101.35 103.03104.71105.75107.4395.5594.3594.18Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS ResearchNote: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price 5. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6Definitions:Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for an asset for a single period. The body of the candle is the wide part that shows whether the closing price was higher or lower than the opening price. The candlestick's shadows show the day's high and lows and how they compare to the open and close. The shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.Support: Is an area where an asset price finds it difficult to break through downwards. This may cause price to head higher in the near term as buying pressure may increase.Resistance: Is an area where an asset price finds it difficult to break through upwards. This may cause price to head lower in the near term as selling pressure may increase.SMA (Simple Moving Average): (Which is an arithmetic average) calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and thus considered to be a lagging indicator. Moving averages here are using closing prices. SMA serves many purposes; such purposes may by a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction, and potential support/resistance levels.Market Breadth: Is the number of advanced listed companies vs. the number of the declined ones in a particular exchange.MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): is a trading indicator which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical price data, using the closing price in our chartsRSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that compares assets price gains to losses for a predetermined number of periods (we use 14 periods, unless specified otherwise). It attempts to point out how an asset is, in relative terms, is in an overbought/oversold conditions. The standard use of the indicator is 30 and below for an oversold asset while 70 and above is considered to be overbought.Formation: Is a graphical presentation of an assets price activities over a certain period of time. The specific formation differs with their shapes and purposes. They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etcFibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicated expected areas of support/resistance for an asset based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually the Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: a Pivot Point sets the general attitude for price action as a move above/below the pivot point indicates bullishness/bearishness to the move. The Pivot Point calculates the prior period's high, low and close for an asset to formulate expected future support/resistance levels (last day data is used here.) From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels. 6. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 6ContactsSaugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan KeushgerianHead of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research AnalystTel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qaSahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudar