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COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6 Daily Technical Trader Qatar Monday, 17 November 2014 Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Direction Tgt. IQCD 196.70 Up 200.00 KCBK 22.20 Flat 22.38 QSE Index Price % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 13,744.80 0.1 7.5 Resistance/Support (Daily) Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 13,800 14,000 14,350 Support 13,700 13,660 13,500 QSE Index Commentary Overview: As expected, the index started the week on a weak movement. Market participants need a confirmation of higher volumes while pushing through the 13,800 level to break away from the ranging pattern. Indicators are flattening out vs. the price, showing neutral signs. The immediate support stands at 13,700 and that has not changed over the past month. Expected Target: 13,800 Index will face sharp resistance and needs to break away from the mentioned mark to become bullish. Suggested Stop-loss: 13,700 The stop-loss needs closing below the 13,700, at least on the hourly chart with higher volumes, for it to be confirmed. QSE Index (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QE Summary Market Indicators 16 Nov 14 13 Nov 14 %Ch. Value Traded (QR mn) 628.0 666.4 -5.8 Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 743.9 742.4 0.2 Volume (mn) 10.1 11.1 -9.0 Number of Trans. 6,204 6,363 -2.5 Companies Traded 43 43 0.0 Market Breadth 16:23 25:12 QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Total Return 20,500.24 0.1 53.3 All Share Index 3,482.61 0.2 54.3 Banks 3,434.31 0.1 54.0 Industrials 4,563.76 0.2 52.9 Transportation 2,420.69 -1.3 71.7 Real Estate 2,821.94 0.9 56.8 Insurance 4,068.13 0.0 51.1 Telecoms 1,489.64 -0.9 35.2 Consumer 7,531.72 0.9 60.1 Al Rayan Islamic 4,661.43 0.5 56.5 RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI IHGS 192.30 1.3 99.0 MERS 220.20 2.2 82.2 BRES 52.10 2.8 80.6 GWCS 61.80 -0.3 75.4 QNNS 102.50 -1.0 74.9 RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI QSE Index (30Min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

17 November Daily technical trader

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Page 1: 17 November Daily technical trader

COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6

Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Monday, 17 November 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Direction Tgt.

IQCD 196.70 Up 200.00

KCBK 22.20 Flat 22.38

QSE Index

Price % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 13,744.80 0.1 7.5

Resistance/Support (Daily)

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 13,800 14,000 14,350

Support 13,700 13,660 13,500

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: As expected, the index started the week on a weak movement. Market participants need a confirmation of higher volumes while pushing through the 13,800 level to break away from the ranging pattern. Indicators are flattening out vs. the price, showing neutral signs. The immediate support stands at 13,700 and that has not changed over the past month. Expected Target: 13,800 Index will face sharp resistance and needs to break away from the mentioned mark to become bullish. Suggested Stop-loss: 13,700 The stop-loss needs closing below the 13,700, at least on the hourly chart with higher volumes, for it to be confirmed.

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 16 Nov 14 13 Nov 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 628.0 666.4 -5.8

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 743.9 742.4 0.2

Volume (mn) 10.1 11.1 -9.0

Number of Trans. 6,204 6,363 -2.5

Companies Traded 43 43 0.0

Market Breadth 16:23 25:12 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 20,500.24 0.1 53.3

All Share Index 3,482.61 0.2 54.3

Banks 3,434.31 0.1 54.0

Industrials 4,563.76 0.2 52.9

Transportation 2,420.69 -1.3 71.7

Real Estate 2,821.94 0.9 56.8

Insurance 4,068.13 0.0 51.1

Telecoms 1,489.64 -0.9 35.2

Consumer 7,531.72 0.9 60.1

Al Rayan Islamic 4,661.43 0.5 56.5

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IHGS 192.30 1.3 99.0

MERS 220.20 2.2 82.2

BRES 52.10 2.8 80.6

GWCS 61.80 -0.3 75.4

QNNS 102.50 -1.0 74.9

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30Min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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IQCD

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 196.70 1.03 96,248

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 198.00 200.00 202.00

Support 194.50 190.00 187.50

Commentary

Overview: IQCD is playing along its resistance of QR198.00. The name tried to breach the mentioned level more than 3 times over the past 3 months. Price is looking bullish; the MACD is above the zero line, the RSI is going in tandem with the price, and the drop in volume coincides with the price decline that took place over the past few sessions. Expected Target: QR200.00 – QR202.00 The prerequisite to reach the target price is a breakout from the QR198.00, preferably a close on the daily or at least on the hourly above that price. Suggested Stop-loss: QR194.50 The price may retreat possibly on profit booking; but a dip below the QR194.50 is going to be an indication for a decline that may extend to the next support of QR190.00.

IQCD (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

IQCD (Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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KCBK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 22.20 0.82 51,513

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 22.25 22.38 22.65

Support 22.00 21.85 21.70

Commentary

Overview: Over the medium term, the bank made a symmetrical triangle, and is trading inside of that price formation since last April. With the name stabilizing above the QR22.00, the level is becoming stronger and the price is bouncing off the lower support level of the triangle. The RSI and MACD are showing more bullish signs on the daily and the hourly time frames. Price is challenging the moving averages on the daily, and is already above the 50SMA and 100SMA on the hourly chart. That said, the name should maintain its positive behavior above the QR22.00 to meet the projected target. Expected Target: QR22.38 – QR22.55 A break above the QR22.25 is expected to bring more participants into play. This should increase the probability of reaching the first target mentioned above. Suggested Stop-loss: QR22.00 A breach below the mentioned may drag the price to the lower boundaries of the triangle, specifically QR21.80 – QR21.75 price levels.

KCBK (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

KCBK (Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 13,744.80 13,595.21 13,656.07 13,693.67 13,754.54 13,815.40 13,853.00 13,913.87 13,730.04 13,273.09 12,635.70

Total Return 20,500.24 20,277.12 20,367.90 20,423.98 20,514.76 20,605.54 20,661.62 20,752.40 20,478.22 19,796.22 18,704.59

All Share 3,482.61 3,450.02 3,462.76 3,470.62 3,483.35 3,496.09 3,503.95 3,516.68 3,470.45 3,357.11 3,195.69

Al Rayan Islamic 4,661.43 4,602.34 4,621.91 4,633.99 4,653.55 4,673.12 4,685.20 4,704.76 4,661.11 4,483.63 4,096.10

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 49.95 49.12 49.44 49.64 49.97 50.29 50.49 50.82 54.98 54.21 48.32

CBQK 73.00 72.40 72.74 72.96 73.30 73.64 73.86 74.20 71.37 69.05 66.85

DHBK 58.60 58.33 58.49 58.58 58.73 58.89 58.98 59.13 60.06 59.23 61.27

QIBK 109.80 107.87 108.48 108.86 109.47 110.08 110.46 111.07 115.97 107.64 94.39

QIIK 84.30 83.43 83.89 84.17 84.63 85.09 85.37 85.83 88.56 85.96 81.50

Insurance

QATI 97.00 97.00 97.00 97.00 97.00 97.00 97.00 97.00 98.45 91.44 79.90

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 126.50 123.23 124.34 125.03 126.13 127.24 127.93 129.03 129.47 111.71 91.13

Industrials

IQCD 196.70 194.50 195.30 195.80 196.60 197.40 197.90 198.70 189.77 183.34 183.55

QEWS 189.50 186.90 188.20 189.00 190.30 191.60 192.40 193.70 187.81 186.50 181.17

GISS 123.00 120.60 121.67 122.33 123.40 124.47 125.13 126.20 120.98 111.94 95.19

QIGD 48.00 47.00 47.57 47.93 48.50 49.07 49.43 50.00 56.91 57.11 56.10

Real Estate

BRES 52.10 49.30 50.10 50.60 51.40 52.20 52.70 53.50 41.10 40.79 37.99

UDCD 26.75 26.38 26.56 26.66 26.83 27.01 27.11 27.28 28.81 27.53 25.13

ERES 19.29 18.96 19.10 19.18 19.31 19.45 19.53 19.66 19.50 20.59 21.27

MRDS 23.92 23.47 23.68 23.81 24.02 24.23 24.36 24.57 23.99 21.43 18.54

Telecommunication

ORDS 119.10 116.30 117.56 118.34 119.60 120.86 121.64 122.90 129.14 131.94 139.07

VFQS 18.85 18.44 18.63 18.74 18.92 19.11 19.22 19.40 21.16 20.27 17.20

Transportation

QGTS 24.13 23.45 23.77 23.97 24.29 24.61 24.81 25.13 24.32 23.80 22.91

QNNS 102.50 98.63 100.31 101.35 103.03 104.71 105.75 107.43 95.55 94.35 94.18 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for an asset for a single period. The body of the candle is the wide part that shows

whether the closing price was higher or lower than the opening price. The candlestick's shadows show the day's high and lows and how they compare to the open

and close. The shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: Is an area where an asset price finds it difficult to break through downwards. This may cause price to head higher in the near term as buying pressure

may increase.

Resistance: Is an area where an asset price finds it difficult to break through upwards. This may cause price to head lower in the near term as selling pressure

may increase.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): (Which is an arithmetic average) calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and thus

considered to be a lagging indicator. Moving averages here are using closing prices. SMA serves many purposes; such purposes may by a smoothing tool, an

indicative price direction, and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Is the number of advanced listed companies vs. the number of the declined ones in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): is a trading indicator which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical price data, using the closing price in our charts

RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that compares asset’s price gains to losses for a predetermined number of periods (we use 14

periods, unless specified otherwise). It attempts to point out how an asset is, in relative terms, is in an overbought/oversold conditions. The standard use of the

indicator is 30 and below for an oversold asset while 70 and above is considered to be overbought.

Formation: Is a graphical presentation of an asset’s price activities over a certain period of time. The specific formation differs with their shapes and purposes.

They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc…

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicated expected areas of support/resistance for an asset based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually the Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: a Pivot Point sets the general attitude for price action as a move above/below the pivot point indicates

bullishness/bearishness to the move. The Pivot Point calculates the prior period's high, low and close for an asset to formulate expected future support/resistance

levels (last day data is used here.) From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to

form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.