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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Sunday, 16 November 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Direction Tgt.

QIGD 49.30 Flat 50.00

ERES 19.20 Flat 19.60

QSE General Index

Price % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 13,729.78 0.0 8.6

Resistance/Support (Daily)

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 13,800 14,000 14,350

Support 13,700 13,660 13,500

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The Index is retreating below the upper side of the range. This sluggish movement may continue this week, especially if we hit the 13,700 mark and close below it. MACD’s Histogram and the RSI are showing overall weakness confirming the range. Expected Target: 13,800 The index is still looking at the strong resistance at the level. Suggested Stop-loss: 13,500 This is subject to closing below the 13,700 with higher volumes. Then the 13,500 will become our next main support level where the lower boundary of the range is placed.

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 13 Nov 14 12 Nov 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 666.4 667.8 -0.2

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 742.4 742.0 0.1

Volume (mn) 11.1 11.4 -2.6

Number of Trans. 6,363 6,412 -0.8

Companies Traded 43 42 2.4

Market Breadth 25:12 20:18 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 20,477.84 0.0 53.1

All Share Index 3,477.16 0.1 53.9

Banks 3,429.56 -0.1 54.4

Industrials 4,556.26 -0.2 53.8

Transportation 2,451.71 0.4 70.3

Real Estate 2,798.08 0.8 54.3

Insurance 4,069.32 0.7 47.4

Telecoms 1,503.28 0.1 34.9

Consumer 7,467.99 0.0 60.2

Al Rayan Islamic 4,639.36 0.3 55.4

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IHGS 189.90 1.6 98.9

MERS 215.50 -0.4 84.3

BRES 50.70 1.2 79.6

QNNS 103.50 0.1 74.6

GWCS 62.00 0.8 74.5

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30Min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QIGD

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 49.30 1.02 172,729

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 50.00 50.80 53.00

Support 48.30 47.20 45.00

Commentary

Overview: QIGD is bouncing off the QR47.25 support and creating a symmetrical triangle formation (seen in the daily chart). Symmetrical triangle price formation is usually considered as a continuation of the previous move (here seen the bearish leg that started from the middle of September and ended later October). However, price is also bouncing off the lower boundary of the triangle and suggesting a bounce to the QR50.00 – QR50.80 which is the upper part of the triangle. The RSI on the daily is looking bullish at this stage. Price, on the hourly, has penetrated the 50SMA and the MACD is crossing the zero line upward, which is also positive. Expected Target: QR50.00 – QR50.80 The target is the upper limit of the triangle and then retreat is possible. Suggested Stop-loss: QR48.80 Hitting this stop may take the price to the lower levels around the QR48.30.

QIGD (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QIGD (Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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ERES

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 19.20 0.73 1,028,517

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 19.60 20.00 20.40

Support 19.00 18.50 17.60

Commentary

Overview: Flattish attitude was exhibited by the price and this may continue while stabilizing above the QR19.00. The name succeeded in closing above the previous two sessions. The RSI is changing its direction to the positive side, both on the daily and the hourly. On the hourly, the price managed to punch through the downtrend line. As a result, we can expect the bounce to continue upwards over the short term Expected Target: QR19.60 – QR20.00 Last session’s highest price of QR19.28 needs to be breached upward for the momentum to continue. Suggested Stop-loss: QR19.28 A breach below that will drag the price to the closest support of QR19.00

ERES (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

ERES (Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 13,729.78 13,671.99 13,696.35 13,711.40 13,735.77 13,760.13 13,775.18 13,799.55 13,730.04 13,273.09 12,635.70

Total Return 20,477.84 20,391.65 20,427.98 20,450.43 20,486.77 20,523.10 20,545.55 20,581.89 20,478.22 19,796.22 18,704.59

All Share 3,477.16 3,463.35 3,468.92 3,472.35 3,477.91 3,483.48 3,486.91 3,492.47 3,470.45 3,357.11 3,195.69

Al Rayan Islamic 4,639.36 4,605.54 4,617.02 4,624.12 4,635.60 4,647.08 4,654.18 4,665.66 4,661.11 4,483.63 4,096.10

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 50.00 49.67 49.86 49.98 50.17 50.36 50.48 50.67 54.98 54.21 48.32

CBQK 73.00 72.53 72.80 72.97 73.23 73.50 73.67 73.93 71.37 69.05 66.85

DHBK 58.40 57.87 58.13 58.30 58.57 58.83 59.00 59.27 60.06 59.23 61.27

QIBK 110.00 109.27 109.50 109.64 109.87 110.10 110.24 110.47 115.97 107.64 94.39

QIIK 84.90 83.97 84.27 84.46 84.77 85.07 85.26 85.57 88.56 85.96 81.50

Insurance

QATI 96.90 95.77 96.11 96.32 96.67 97.01 97.22 97.57 98.45 91.44 79.90

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 126.50 123.83 124.60 125.07 125.83 126.60 127.07 127.83 129.47 111.71 91.13

Industrials

IQCD 194.70 192.57 193.71 194.42 195.57 196.71 197.42 198.57 189.77 183.34 183.55

QEWS 188.90 187.90 188.40 188.70 189.20 189.70 190.00 190.50 187.81 186.50 181.17

GISS 125.00 123.13 124.01 124.55 125.43 126.31 126.85 127.73 120.98 111.94 95.19

QIGD 49.30 48.43 48.68 48.84 49.08 49.33 49.49 49.73 56.91 57.11 56.10

Real Estate

BRES 50.70 48.37 49.09 49.54 50.27 50.99 51.44 52.17 41.10 40.79 37.99

UDCD 26.95 26.32 26.53 26.66 26.87 27.08 27.21 27.42 28.81 27.53 25.13

ERES 19.20 18.89 19.00 19.06 19.16 19.27 19.33 19.43 19.50 20.59 21.27

MRDS 24.20 23.79 24.00 24.13 24.34 24.55 24.68 24.89 23.99 21.43 18.54

Telecommunication

ORDS 120.00 116.93 118.00 118.66 119.73 120.80 121.46 122.53 129.14 131.94 139.07

VFQS 19.11 18.70 18.84 18.92 19.05 19.19 19.27 19.40 21.16 20.27 17.20

Transportation

QGTS 24.55 24.18 24.34 24.43 24.58 24.74 24.83 24.98 24.32 23.80 22.91

QNNS 103.50 100.83 102.17 103.00 104.33 105.67 106.50 107.83 95.55 94.35 94.18 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for an asset for a single period. The body of the candle is the wide part that shows

whether the closing price was higher or lower than the opening price. The candlestick's shadows show the day's high and lows and how they compare to the open

and close. The shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: Is an area where an asset price finds it difficult to break through downwards. This may cause price to head higher in the near term as buying pressure

may increase.

Resistance: Is an area where an asset price finds it difficult to break through upwards. This may cause price to head lower in the near term as selling pressure

may increase.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): (Which is an arithmetic average) calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and thus

considered to be a lagging indicator. Moving averages here are using closing prices. SMA serves many purposes; such purposes may by a smoothing tool, an

indicative price direction, and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Is the number of advanced listed companies vs. the number of the declined ones in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): is a trading indicator which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical price data, using the closing price in our charts

RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that compares asset’s price gains to losses for a predetermined number of periods (we use 14

periods, unless specified otherwise). It attempts to point out how an asset is, in relative terms, is in an overbought/oversold conditions. The standard use of the

indicator is 30 and below for an oversold asset while 70 and above is considered to be overbought.

Formation: Is a graphical presentation of an asset’s price activities over a certain period of time. The specific formation differs with their shapes and purposes.

They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc…

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicated expected areas of support/resistance for an asset based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually the Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: a Pivot Point sets the general attitude for price action as a move above/below the pivot point indicates

bullishness/bearishness to the move. The Pivot Point calculates the prior period's high, low and close for an asset to formulate expected future support/resistance

levels (last day data is used here.) From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to

form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

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