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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Monday, 11 May 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price 1st

Target

ORDS 101.00 102.00

GWCS 74.400 71.00

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,285.45 0.0 8.5

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,400 12,600 12,800

Support 12,200 12,100 12,000

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index remained flat, gaining only 0.03% on lower volumes. The intraday chart shows the possibility of further upside on the Index for the coming sessions. It bounced off just above the lower side of the uptrend channel, supported by the MACD momentum indicator. Expected Resistance Level: 12,400 Expected Support Level: 12,100

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 10 May 15 07 May 15 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 255.4 461.7 -44.7

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 660.3 660.5 0.0

Volume (mn) 7.2 11.1 -35.2

Number of Trans. 3,945 6,384 -38.2

Companies Traded 41 41 0.0

Market Breadth 19:17 15:25 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 19,092.23 0.0 63.0

All Share Index 3,283.41 0.0 63.8

Banks 3,260.03 -0.1 58.5

Industrials 4,085.70 0.0 61.9

Transportation 2,496.75 -0.4 57.1

Real Estate 2,635.25 0.1 63.7

Insurance 4,404.98 0.0 75.6

Telecoms 1,331.77 0.5 52.9

Consumer 7,452.72 0.0 67.0

Al Rayan Islamic 4,700.23 -0.4 69.2

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QGMD 18.00 1.0 82.5

QIGD 52.60 4.6 79.0

QEWS 216.60 1.8 73.9

QATI 86.00 0.0 71.4

IHGS 132.00 2.3 70.5

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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ORDS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 101.00 0.50 41,124

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 101.00 102.00 103.00

Support 100.00 99.00 97.00

Commentary

Overview: The telecommunication sector leader bounced again from the QR97.00 support level, creating a bullish Double Bottom price formation (on the intraday chart). This could create momentum buying on the name and possibly move the price higher to the recent tops around QR102.00 then QR103.00. Expected Target Price: QR102.00 – QR103.00 A breach above QR101.00 triggers the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR99.50

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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GWCS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 74.40 -3.13 68,760

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 76.60 80.00 85.50

Support 74.00 71.00 70.00

Commentary

Overview: GWCS experienced a sharp rise in the last month; indicators signal a possible correction. The MACD and the RSI peaked and reversing south. Dark candlesticks are visible, indicating selling pressure was persistent. Expected Target Price: QR71.00 – QR70.00 A break below QR74.00 is needed to trigger the sell recommendation.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,285.45 12,227.67 12,245.31 12,256.20 12,273.84 12,291.48 12,302.37 12,320.01 11,933.96 12,061.52 12,756.22

Total Return 19,092.23 19,002.44 19,029.85 19,046.78 19,074.19 19,101.60 19,118.53 19,145.94 18,455.85 18,346.23 19,204.07

All Share 3,283.41 3,266.24 3,271.60 3,274.91 3,280.27 3,285.63 3,288.94 3,294.30 3,180.28 3,158.18 3,281.46

Al Rayan Islamic 4,700.23 4,678.48 4,689.68 4,696.60 4,707.80 4,719.00 4,725.92 4,737.12 4,423.40 4,290.70 4,423.19

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 48.40 47.80 48.01 48.14 48.35 48.56 48.69 48.90 47.44 46.75 49.75

CBQK 55.90 55.37 55.67 55.86 56.17 56.47 56.66 56.97 58.53 60.07 62.33

DHBK 54.80 54.27 54.42 54.51 54.67 54.82 54.91 55.07 52.70 54.87 56.98

QIBK 104.90 102.43 103.16 103.61 104.33 105.06 105.51 106.23 100.97 102.65 106.85

QIIK 80.10 79.23 79.62 79.85 80.23 80.62 80.85 81.23 80.94 81.49 83.95

Insurance

QATI 86.00 85.33 85.72 85.95 86.33 86.72 86.95 87.33 78.29 77.58 80.09

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 173.00 169.47 171.03 172.00 173.57 175.13 176.10 177.67 154.31 140.75 132.85

Industrials

IQCD 147.70 147.17 147.40 147.54 147.77 148.00 148.14 148.37 142.27 149.74 168.32

QEWS 216.60 210.47 212.22 213.31 215.07 216.82 217.91 219.67 194.85 192.89 190.10

GISS 85.80 84.93 85.28 85.49 85.83 86.18 86.39 86.73 89.93 94.11 105.48

QIGD 52.60 49.73 50.92 51.65 52.83 54.02 54.75 55.93 43.37 41.80 47.31

Real Estate

BRES 50.10 49.23 49.62 49.85 50.23 50.62 50.85 51.23 47.88 46.36 44.71

UDCD 23.88 23.46 23.66 23.78 23.98 24.18 24.30 24.50 22.34 23.13 25.50

ERES 16.97 16.68 16.76 16.81 16.90 16.98 17.03 17.12 16.17 15.77 17.53

MRDS 19.01 18.70 18.80 18.86 18.95 19.05 19.11 19.20 18.14 18.35 20.01

Telecommunication

ORDS 101.00 99.73 100.15 100.41 100.83 101.25 101.51 101.93 103.38 109.74 117.83

VFQS 17.50 17.30 17.36 17.39 17.45 17.51 17.54 17.60 17.51 16.83 18.40

Transportation

QGTS 22.70 22.53 22.59 22.63 22.68 22.74 22.78 22.83 22.98 23.27 23.68

QNNS 99.80 98.13 98.71 99.06 99.63 100.21 100.56 101.13 101.43 100.37 98.47 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts:

Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC

Head of Research Head of HNI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025

saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

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