Prof Mike Muller
Graduate School of Public and
Development Management
Wits University
Presentation given at IHP-HELP Centre for Water Law, Policy and Science, under the auspices of UNESCO, 21st June 2011
What is meant by water security? Household? Reliable services
Health
Community? Resilience to disasters
Vulnerability of economy
National? survival of the state and nation?
Environmental? Ecological survival, from local to planet
Framing the issue A definition of water security
‘the reliable availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of water for health, livelihoods and production, coupled with an acceptable level of water-related risks.’ Grey and Sadoff (2007).
Not the same as ‘food security’ and ‘energy security’, reliable access to sufficient supplies.
water security also captures destructive aspects of water floods and droughts
Water management is a complex business
Offtake for sugar mill and village
(return channel, warm treated
water, just downstream)
Onward flow to poor
people & neighbors
Water for nature conservation –
National park
Weir, interferes with
environmental function
Water for agriculture
– commercial cane
Flood line –
development
constraint
The regional water challenges
Southern African countries already water stressed
Likely to get worse, with climate and population
Conflict inevitable
Aggravating the challenges:-
External land and water grabbing ,
Biofuels promotion
Loss of ecosystem services making people poorer
Corruption will exacerbate situation
It’s already happening Conflict has happened:-
invasion of Lesotho by South Africa
Botswana and Namibia sabre-rattling over Okavango
Dams and displaced people are a major problem
China in Angola and Zambia
Colonising land and water as well as minerals
Corruption has undermined cooperation
Lesotho and elsewhere
Part of the problem ?
Is population pressure on water an issue?
Water stressed 1990
Water stressed 2025
Is drought, variability a problem?Droughts risk and vulnerability (economic loss, as a proportion of GDP density)
UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Droughts - risk and vulnerability (economic loss, as a proportion of GDP density), UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library,
Who has the water?
And is availabilitya problem?
Who has the water?
Country
Angola
Botswana
Lesotho
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
South Africa
Swaziland
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Country ????
Least water
Most water
Who has the water?
CountryWater
Availability
Angola 10510
Botswana 6820
Lesotho 1680
Malawi 1400
Mozambique 11320
Namibia 8810
South Africa 1110
Swaziland 4160
Zambia 9630
Zimbabwe 1550
M3/p/yr
South Africa 1110
Malawi 1400
Zimbabwe 1550
Lesotho 1680
Swaziland 4160
Botswana 6820
Namibia 8810
Zambia 9630
Angola 10510
Mozambique 11320
Least water
Most water
Source: UN WWDR 2006
COUNTRY Water m3/p/yrGaza strip 41Singapore 139Rwanda 610Egypt 790Kenya 930South Africa 1110Denmark 1120Korea, s 1450Eritrea 1470Ethiopia 1680China 2140Burundi 2190United Kingdom 2460Uganda 2470Swaziland 4160Botswana 6820Namibia 8810Zambia 9630Mozambique 11320DRC 23850
Who has the water?
Who uses their water?Country
Angola
Botswana
Lesotho
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
South Africa
Swaziland
Zambia
Zimbabwe
DRC
AVAILABILITY M3 P/C USE %
10510 0.2
6820 1
1680 2
1400 6
11320 0.3
8810 2
1110 31
4160 18
9630 2
1584 13
23850 0.03
Or is money the problem?
The Southern African challenge Low-equilibrium traps and poverty
Many of the traps are externally set
Hydropower and infrastructure blocks
Environmental conventions
External dependence
Conflict provoked
EX:Muller M, Fit for purpose: taking integrated water resource management back to basics Irrigation and Drainage Systems: Volume 24, Issue 3 (2010), Page 161.
DIMENSION
“PRAGMATIC”
RIO
“PRESCRIPTIVE”
DUBLIN
Economic
Nature of water
Priority of economic instruments
Priority setting
Role of private sector
Characterised as:-
Economic and social good
Economic instruments balanced
by social considerations
Within national economic
development policy
Major role for government,
recognition of private role
Developmental
Economic good
High priority for economic
instruments
Stakeholder participation,
economic instruments
High priority for role of private
sector, limited government
Washington Consensus
Institutional, national
Institutional objectives
Participatory approaches
Governance
Characterised as:-
Importance of national
development strategies
Where there is clear demand
Appropriate institutions
Public administration
Focus on “enabling
environment”
Heavy emphasis on participatory
approaches
Performance based institutions
New Public Management
Institutional, international:
Transboundary approaches
Institutionalisation of global
water
Characterised as:-
Basin specific approaches
United Nations system
Multilateralism continued
River basin organisations
World Water Council outside
inter-governmental domain
Retreat from multilateralism
Environmental
Infrastructure
Decision making
River basin organisation (RBO)
Characterised as:-
Infrastructure development, a
key element
Effective implementation and
coordination required
Manage “in basin context”
Balance needs of people and
environment
“Development” deleted
Emphasis on “full stakeholder
participation”
RBO the most appropriate entity
Ecosystem approach
Competing water
management
paradigms:
The differences
between Rio and
Dublin
Water’s Washington Consensus
Water’s Washington Consensus
So what are the real security challenges? Failure to develop the resource
Mozambique, Zambia, Angola
(Okavango, Zambesi)
Hydropower, agriculture,
Variability and uncertainty
Hydrological variability (floods and droughts)
Developmental uncertainty (Angola & Zambia worries)
Failure to develop the society
Domestic water security
Poverty
World potential and current hydropower production, 2004
How water resource development & management supports economies
Flow
TimeReliable Flow
Reliable Flow
Maximum flood flow
Maximum flood flow
Management and
Infrastructure interventions
Reliable
supplies =
More investment and
greater productivity
SA, a potential regional predator?
Must South Africa look to its neighbours to meet future water needs?
What are the regional cooperation and security implications?
1890s local springs
1902 Rand Water - Zuurbekom
1923 Vaal Barrage
1938 Vaal Dam
1982 Tugela-Vaal
pumped
transfer/storage
1998 Lesotho Highlands Phase 1a
2004 Lesotho Highlands Phase 1b
Evolution of SA economy’s water supply “footprint”
Next, the Zambezi?!
2020 Lesotho Highlands Phase 2
LHWP Phase II (Polihali Dam)
Use of acid mine drainage
Thukela-Vaal transfer (Phased Mielietuin
& Jana Dams)
Zambezi-Vaal transfer
Orange-Vaal transfer (Boskraai Dam with phased pipelines)
Desalination of seawater
Mzimvubu-Vaal transfer
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Marg
inal C
ost
-U
RV
(R
/m3)
Volume (million m3/a)
Vaal River Augmentation Options
Legend
(0.85) - Unit energy requirementkWh/m3 of raw water
(13.2)
(4.2)
(4.4)
(3.4)
(2.4)(2.5)
(0.0)
Vaal River system – Zambesi next?
1890s local springs
1902 Rand Water - Zuurbekom
1923 Vaal Barrage
1938 Vaal Dam
1982 Tugela-Vaal
pumped
transfer/storage
1998 Lesotho Highlands Phase 1a
2004 Lesotho Highlands Phase 1b
Evolution of system’s water “footprint” - waste
1970s Waste
from
Gauteng
to Crocodile
2010 Waste to
Lephalale &
Limpopo
Next, the Zambezi?!
2020 Lesotho Highlands Phase 2
Is SA a potential predator?
Costs Lesotho Ph2 R6/kl
Wastewater to Lephalale R8/kl (mainly transport)
Zambesi water R23/kl?
Desalination at coast R4/kl and falling
Water for the economy Singapore 150kl/person/year
South Africa 1200 kl/person/year
Some real issues 20 years, since Rio, countries been denied access to
infrastructure funding (Water’s Washington Consensus)
Constrained by internationally imposed environmental conventions (e.g. RAMSAR)
Denied pathways that rich countries used
Ignored evidence that environment can be rehabilitated
Kuznets curve
Rhine, Danube, US Great Lakes
Hydropower
Benefits of cooperation
LESOTHO: sale of gravity and rental of land (not water)
15% of government budget ,
SWAZILAND: cooperation treaty
aid for agriculture prize (LUSIP) (alternatives to sugar ?)
MOZAMBIQUE: Cabora Bassa
Funded electrification of country
ZIMBABWE, ZAMBIA:
still getting power from Kariba
TCTA Trip to Katse and Mohale
Feb/Mar 2003 30
Infrastructure project impacts ….
Katse Dam, Lesotho
TCTA Trip to Katse and Mohale
Feb/Mar 2003 31
…. can be mitigated : Mohale resettlement
Cooperation in water in 2002…
2002: The WSSD WaterDome, birthplace of historical Incomaputoagreement
“Swaziland, Mozambique, and South Africa made water history for the African continent when they signed a water-sharing agreement governing the use of two of their shared rivers. The Interim IncoMaputo Agreement, which involves the Incomati and Maputo rivers, provides significant benefits to all three nations. The agreement immediately unlocked financial support for a major new irrigation development in Swaziland, the Lower Usuthu Smallholder Irrigation Project, which will create direct employment for 10,000 people through the development of over 11,000 hectares, providing much needed poverty relief in this area of otherwise limited economic potential.”
… produces food and livelihoods
LUSIP, Swaziland, in 2010
About water wars...
“The wars of the next century will be for water”,
“unless we change the way we manage water”.
Ismael Serageldin, 1996
Former VP Sustainable Development, World Bank
Founder of the World Water Council
Head of the Alexandria Library
Napoleon’s African water management lesson:
Under a good government, the Nile gains on the desert
Under a bad government, the desert gains on the Nile
Conclusions To achieve water security, need
Investments in infrastructure to store and transport water, treat and reuse waste water
robust institutions, able to take and implement decisions information and the capacity to predict, plan and cope
Many societies want to move beyond water security to take advantage of benefits derived from wise water use “water for growth and development” “land and water grabs” and threat, while Biofuels displace food ... or Better live & livelihoods as well as products and profits?
Much of Africa still needs to achieve basic water security But also needs growth and development
Conclusions Perceptions are often wrong, conclusions not
supported by evidence
Lead to inappropriate policy reponses
In world of sovereign and dependent countries,
Southern Africa dependent over past two decades
External policy has ignored local preferences
Imposed external preferences
Ignored historical evidence
Conclusions Challenges
Financial resources
Climate variability and change
Response
Help region to manage water in support of its sustainable development
Support infrastructure development
Some climate funding to water management
Will
Help countries to achieve development goals,
Make them more resilient to eventual climate change
Thank you!