WARGAMING UNPREDICTABLEADVERSARIES
(ANDUNRELIABLEALLIES…)REXBRYNEN
MCGILLUNIVERSITY
WWW.PAXSIMS.ORG
TheStrategyBridge,28March2017
THEQATAR CRISIS
• Hostagenegotiations(April2017)andhackingofQatariNewsAgency(May2017)aggravateexistingtensionsbetweenQatarandGCChardliners(KSA,UAE,Bahrain)
• Growinginfluenceof(headstrong)MuhammedbinSalman
• 21May:Saudi,UAEandBahrainleadersrailagainstQatartoPOTUSduringsummit,andreceivesympatheticresponse.
• 5June:KSAandalliesbreaktieswithQatar,imposeseveresanctions.• USEmbassypraisesQatariprogressoncounterterrorism.
• SECSTATETillerson urgesmoderation.
• 6June:POTUSsupportsKSApositioninseriesoftweets.
• 9June:SECSTATETillerson issuesbalancedstatementcallingfordialogue.HourslaterPOTUSaccusesQataroffundingterrorism“ataveryhighlevel.”
• 14June:USannouncessaleof$12BinF-15aircrafttoQatar.
• 20June:StateDepartmentissuessternstatementverycriticalofKSAposition.
• 25June:SECSTATETillerson suggestssomeKSAdemandsareexcessive.
• 26June:Sen.Corker(R-SFRC)threatenstoblockallUSarmssalestoGCC.
WHATIS“UNPREDICTABILITY”?
• true“irrationality”isrelativelyrare
• seriousmentalillness?
• instead,mostapparentirrationalitystemsfromalackofunderstandingof:
• decision-making:
• perspectives,interests,perceptions
• decision-makingprocesses
• factions
• psychologicalcharacteristics
• signalsorintent
• theeffect,however,maybethesame,i.e.difficultyinestablishingstimulus-responseorcause-effect
IMPLICATIONSOF“UNPREDICTABILITY”?
• impactondeterrence
• “crazyman”enhancesdeterrence?
• incoherenceunderminessignalingandcommitment,henceunderminesdeterrence
• unreliablealliesunderminedeterrence
• slowerormorecautiousdecision-making?
• previouslyhomeostaticsystemsmaybecomemorepronetocascadingchange
• “bull(orbutterflyeffect)inachinashop”
UNPREDICTABILITY INWARGAMING
• Whilethebehaviorofunpredictableadversariesorunreliablealliesisdifficulttoforecastwithprecision,statementsandactionsusuallyfallwithinarangethatcanbebroadlyanticipated.
• Notcompletely unpredictable.
• True“BlackSwan”eventsare,bytheirverynature,veryrareindeed.
• Wethustendtobeconsideringabellcurveofplausiblebehaviors,boundedattheextremesbylowprobability/highimpactactions.
• Probabilitydistributioncannotbeknown,however.
WARGAMEDESIGN1:SCRIPTING
Theunpredictabilityofa(non-player)adversaryorallycanbebuiltintothegamescenarioorinjects.
• Advantages:
• (pre)boundedunpredictability
• Disadvantages:
• generallyunresponsivetogameevents
• offerslittleinsightintomanaging(asopposedtocopingwith)theunreliable
• playersmayfeeltheyarebeingleddownapredermined path(becausetheyare)
• Applications:
• controlledexperimentationordefinedteachingobjectives
• littlefish/bigpondsituationswhereunpredictableelementiswellbeyondreachofactors
WARGAMEDESIGN2:STOCHASTICBEHAVIOUR
Theunpredictabilityofa(non-player)adversaryorallycanbeberepresentedbyrandomevents(dice,cards,etc).
• Advantages:• semi-(pre)boundedunpredictability
• generatesgenuineuncertainty
• Disadvantages:• unresponsivetogameevents
• offerslittleinsightintomanaging(asopposedtocopingwith)theunreliable
• losingattributedto“badluck”
• Applications:• controlledexperimentationordefinedteachingobjectives
• littlefish/bigpondsituationswhereunpredictableelementiswellbeyondreachofplayers
WARGAMEDESIGN3:RESPONSIVEVARIABLE
”Unreliable”behaviour subjecttoinfluencethroughestablishedgamemechanism(influencetrackormarkers)thatincludesbothresponsiveandstochasticelements.
• Advantages:
• semi-(pre)boundedunpredictability
• allowsplayerstostrategizeinteractionwiththe”unpredictable”
• moreresponsivetogameevents
• Disadvantages:
• dangersofmodellingwhatyoudon’tunderstand
• Applications:
• “Clausewitzian gameofcards”
Playerorplayersspendlimitedpoliticalcapitalordiplomaticresourcestoselect/influenceoutcome.
Possibleadditionalstochasticelement.
Randomdrawofpossibleleadership
positions.
Playerorplayersspendlimitedpoliticalcapitalordiplomaticresourcesto
select/influenceoutcome.
Variablerelationship,alliancecommitment,
etc.
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3
Possiblestochasticelement.
WARGAMEDESIGN4:WHITECELL
“Unreliable/unpredictable”behaviour determinedbygameumpires/control/whitecell.
• Advantages:
• creativeunpredictability
• allowsplayerstostrategizeinteractwiththe”unpredictable”
• highlyresponsivetogameeventsANDgamepurposes
• Disadvantages:
• “Whateverwetrytogo,Controlwillmessitup.I’mbecominganihilist.”
• dangersofumpiringwhatyoudon’tunderstand
• Applications:
• Usefultonudgegameindesired(analytical/educational)directions.
WARGAMEDESIGN5:TWO(+)LEVELGAMES
”Unreliable”behaviour determinedbysubgameplayerinteractions.
• Advantages:
• usefulwhereelementsofunpredictabilityareunderstood,eveniftheirexactrelationshipisnot
• potentialn emergentgameplay
• Disadvantages:
• distractionandcomplexity
• dangersofdesigningforeffect
• Applications:
• Larger,morecomplexgames
Two-levelgamewherebydomesticactorsvietoinfluencenationalleader(may
appearunpredictableoutsidethesystem).
IMPLICATIONS
• Thevalueofteaching/trainingforagilityandadaptability.• Ifweknowwearelikelytobesurprisedbyunpredictableadversaries,thenweshouldenhanceor
capacitytorespondtotheunexpected.
• POL-MILgamingasalternativefuturesexercises.• Howtodothemcheaplyandeasilytoallowafullerexplorationoftheplausibility-space?
• Importanceofpolitically-sensitivecontingencyplanningthatexplorealliedunreliability.• Arethereimportantissueswejustcan’tgame?
• Theimportanceofhumilityinforecasting.• Themodelmightbeuseful—itisalmostcertainlywrong.
• CanwereallygameBlackSwans?