Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression
PS 450
Election fraud
• What treats are there to the integrity of US elections?– Trying to “steel elections”– Illegal cheating
– Who?– How?
Public Perceptions
• How common Voter Fraud Vote TheftVery 26% 23%Occasionally 36% 37%Infrequently 20% 21%Almost Never 8% 8%
2007 CCES
Public Perceptions
• How common voter fraud (vote more than once or if not citizen) Dem RepVery 15% 35%Occasionally 36% 37%Infrequently 23% 21%Almost Never 13% 8%
2007 CCES
Public Perceptions
• How common vote theft (votes stolen or tampered with) Dem RepVery 23% 20%Occasionally 38% 36%Infrequently 19% 25%Almost Never 9% 11%
2007 CCES
Public Perceptions
• How common vote impersonation (claiming to be someone else) Dem RepVery Often 6% 11%Often 25% 42%Rarely30% 23%Very Rare 21% 5%
2008
Which are a ‘threat’?
• Partisan Secretaries of State• Forged petition signatures (initiatives)• False voter registrations• Buying votes, bribing• Ineligible people casting votes• Intimidation of voters• Rigged voting equipment
Forged petitions
• Paid signature collection to qualify ballot initiatives
• Some evidence of fraud (MT, DC)– Very little (if any) in WA
• For-pay system has safeguards• Who more likely to cheat, paid workers or
volunteers?
Forged petitions
• Creates demand for restrictions on petitioning• Is motive to kill initiatives?– Ban paying per-signature– ‘Scarlett Letter’ laws– Require petitioners register w/ state agency– Petitioners wear photo-ID– Petitioners swear affidavit on sig sheet• All sigs invalid if not signed?
Partisan Secretaries of State
• Scheduling initiative votes• Ruling on petitions• Overseeing recounts• Purging voter rolls• Challenging eligibility of voters• Locating polling places, staffing
Partisan Secretaries of State
• Examples• Katherine Harris, FL, 2000– Purging FL voter rolls
• Ken Blackwell, OH 2004– Refusing to count provisional ballots, restrict
distribution of ballots• Missouri, Matt Blunt 2004– Anti-gay initiative
Secretaries of State
• Proposal – Have office listed as non-partisan
– Public campaign funds for the office
False Voter Registration
• Made famous by ACORN• Workers paid per-registration– Does this create incentives to “register” Mickey
Mouse, Homer Simpson?
• What evidence that falsely registered people cast votes?
False Voter Registration
• Creates GOP demand for voter ID at polls– Photo ID• What % of voters lack photo ID
– Utility bill• Huge partisan split in perceptions• DOJ challenging some ID laws in states
covered by Voting Rights Act
Ineligible people voting
• Falsely registered
– Ex-felons– Non-citizen immigrants– People voting in multiple jurisdictions– Voting other person’s mail-in ballots
Ineligible people voting
• GW Bush DOJ study found no systematic voter fraud (study killed)
Partisan Split, Photo ID
Texas, 2011 House Vote Senate Vote
Republicans Yes 101 19Democrats Yes 0 0
Republicans No 0 0Democrats No 48 11
Floor vote on SJR 14
Partisan Split, Photo ID
Montana, 2011House Vote Senate Vote
Republicans Yes 65 27Democrats Yes 0 0
Republicans No 2 1Democrats No 32 22
Floor vote on HB 152
Partisan Split, Photo IDMaine, 2011
House Vote Senate VoteRepublicans Yes 74 18Democrats Yes 0 0Others Yes 0 0
Republicans No 0 2Democrats No 69 14Others No 1 1
Floor vote on LD 1376
Photo ID Laws, Study of Indiana
Drivers Lic DL or ID cardWhite 81% 86%
Black 55% 73%
Photo ID Laws, Study of Indiana
White Black
Photo ID Laws
Income LT $40K $40k-$80K Over $80K
Photo ID Laws, Study of Indiana
18-34 35-54 55-69 70+
Photo ID laws
Republican Democrat Ind.
Photo ID laws
• Uneven effects
• Modern Day poll tax?
Voter Intimidation
• At polling place• Anecdotes
– Orange Co, CA • Scare off Latino voters
– New Orleans 2002• Spread false info about voting dates
Vote Buying
• Paying people to vote for a candidate
• Isolated examples in small southern communities– DOJ prosecutes, convicts
• Difficult to orchestrate in election with large # of voters
Rigged Voting Equipment
• Vote Theft• Diebold conspiracy– OH 2004• Exit poll results vs. phone surveys vs.. reported vote
• Can electronic systems be hacked
• Ballots w/o “paper trail”
Rigged Equipment
• Difficulties– Decentralized administration (OH)
– Rigorous audits
Fraud, or suppression
• Instances of systematic fraud affecting elections rare, if not existent
• Anecdotes used by partisans to shape composition of the electorate in their favor