VISION 2005Commercial Market
Forecast
2506 Ponce de Leon Blvd Coral Gables, FL 33134 (305) 445-2808
DAVID DABBY, J.D., MAI
DABBY GROUP ADVISORS
DABBY GROUP VALUATIONS
Home Price One-year appreciation
Las Vegas $269,900 52%
Anaheim (Orange Co.) $655,300 38%
Riverside/SanBernardino $294,500 38%
San Diego $559,700 37%
Los Angeles $438,400 30%
West Palm Beach $294,000 26%
Miami $271,900 26%
Washington, D.C. $352,400 23%
Portland, ME $231,200 23%
Baltimore $251,700 23%
Honolulu $451,000 20%
“HAVES”
Home Price One-year appreciation
South Bend $93,800 3.1%
Syracuse $94,700 2.0%
Little Rock $109,400 4.0%
Columbia $120,700 -1.8%
New Orleans $137,500 3.2%
Greensboro/Winston-Salem $140,300 -0.4%
Detroit $141,800 5.5%
Dallas $141,000 0.8%
Columbus $150,400 0.3%
Atlanta $156,800 3.6%
Austin $158,900 -1.3%
“HAVE NOTS”
“Haves” “Have-Nots”
Home Price(2004 Q2)
$370,000 $131,400
Price Appreciation(2003 Q2 to 2004 Q2)
31% 2%
One-year Wealth Gain(2003 Q2 to 2004 Q2)
$87,500 $1,700
Net Migration(2003)
24,600 8,300
Job Growth(July 2003 to July 2004)
1.9% 0.1%
Income (per capita)(2002)
$33,776 $30,775
Housing Production(1990 to 2000)
1.6% 1.6%
Disparities Between the TWO
CoStar Industrial Report -2004
CoStar Office Market - 2004
CB Office Snapshot
Tri-County Combined Total Real Estate Sales Residential,Commercial & Land Combined
Sales Dollar Volume
1993 129,343 $20,458,323,800
1997 134,482 $27,164,302,800
1998 146,641 $29,590,134,800
1999 160,715 $34,037,415,600
2000 168,727 $36,103,001,500
2001 175,436 $38,895,360,900
2002 189,301 $47,168,786,500
2003 201,030 $57,749,728,800
2004est 223,400 $75,934,000,000
Survey prepared for the Keyes company.
Commercial Property Sales - Dollar Volume Trend
OFFICES Commercial Sites WarehousesRental
Apartments
YearNumber of Sales
Dollar Volume
Number of Sales
Dollar Volume
Number of Sales
Dollar Volume
Number of Sales
Dollar Volume
1999 726 $1.83 Bil 1,032 $1.32 Bil 862 $0.90 Bil 2,118 $2.04 Bil
2000 688 $1.69 Bil 1,017 $1.15 Bil 834 $0.85 Bil 2,166 $2.17 Bil
2001 697 $1.40 Bil 915 $0.97 Bil 878 $1,03 Bil 2,226 $2.76 Bil
2002 691 $1.98 Bil 895 $0.95 Bil 1,042 $1.07 Bil 2,278 $2.50 Bil
2003 850 $2.14 Bil 990 $1.34 Bil 1,176 $1.50 Bil 2,362 $3.41 Bil
2004est
934 $2.01 Bil 1,046 $1.79 Bil 1,384 $1.82 Bil 2,346 4.75 Bil
Survey prepared for the Keyes company.
Commercial Real Estate – Pricing and AppreciationRanking Real Estate Category County
LocationMedian Per SF(2002)
Median Per SF(2003)
Median Per SF(2004 est)
% AnnualGain2002-04
1 Retail Centers Miami-Dade $124.38 138.68 179.39 22%
2 Retail Centers Broward $104.42 $116.46 $148.15 21%
3 Retail Centers Palm Beach $94.61 $106.32 $129.87 19%
4 Commercial Sites Miami-Dade $21.31 $21.17 $37.11 37%
5 Commercial Sites Broward $7.57 $8.57 $12.36 32%
6 Commercial Sites Palm Beach $10.36 $9.49 $14.75 21%
7 Rental Apts Miami-Dade $72.90 $95.54 $112.43 27%
8 Rental Apts Broward $79.37 $95.98 $104.53 16%
9 Rental Apts Palm Beach $80.58 $88.07 $102.20 14%
10 Office Buildings Miami-Dade $113.04 $102.53 $112.20 < -1%
11 Office Buildings Broward 93.58 104.04 $112.63 10%
12 Office Buildings Palm Beach $102.55 $114.41 $137.68 17%
13 Warehouses Miami-Dade $60.08 $55.98 $61.84 1.5%
14 Warehouses Broward $61.51 $63.34 $67.35 4.8%
15 Warehouses Palm Beach $59.98 $61.65 $65.46 4.5%
Courvoisier Courts
Price: $96,000,000
# Units: 272Price per Unit: $352,941
Seller: Metropolitan PropsBuyer: Elliott Sharaby
Prior Sale: $61 Million in 12/01
Lakeview Club – Oakland Pk.Sale Price: $43,000,000
#Units 442
PricePer Unit: $98,900
Seller: Sizeler REITBuyer:
Note: Despite marginal location and 55% one bedroom mix property sold for $98,900 per unit. Hispanic converters from Miami were targeted to buy this property.
Poinciana – Miami Urban In-fill
Sabal Palm Manor
Alhambra Plaza / Alhambra West
Price $72.3 million or $229 per sfRentable SF 316,000 SF property (225,000 SF
in the Class A building and 91,000 SF in the Class B)
Seller – Edwards DayBuyer – Crescent Real Estate Equities
Cap Rate 7.8% on current incomeOcc. Rate 92.1% leased (Alhambra Plaza
96.1% & Alhambra West 82.5%)
Cash flow driven investment with moderate upside in operating expenses. Moderate tenant rollover for the next three years.
Trade Center South Ft. Lauderdale
Price: $29,150,000
Rentable: 215,049 SF
Price per SF $136
Year Built: 1986
Seller: General Electric
Buyer: Tricony
Cap Rate: 6.7 %(on in place inc.)
Wachovia- 800 Brickell Avenue
Price - $33,070,000
Rentable SF – 208,235
Year Built - 1981
Seller - Brickell Associates
Buyer - Stiles Corporation & Guggenheim
Price per SF - $159
Cap. Rate - 6%
Note: Prior Sales – 1982 - $42,000,000
1987 - $35,400,000 1999 - $24,500,000
Crown Park II– Miami Lakes
For Sale Condominiums
Price: $100/ SF Shell
Sold Out in 3 Months
Doral Multi-Bay Milam Dairy Rd. Corridor
Price: $3,000,000 Plus Cap. Rate: 5.5%-8.5%
Size: 53,000 SF (1990) Price per SF: $60(est)
Comment: Marketed for Conversion but new buyer is not converting. Was under K for $3 mil but flipped to buyer for undisclosed amount.
Sheraton Biscayne Bay