Using Records to Troubleshoot Transition Cow
Performance
Greg Bethard, Ph.D.G&R Dairy Consulting, Inc.
DRMSBlacksburg, VA
Concepts
• Benchmarking is a bad idea– Goal Setting and tracking makes a lot
of sense• Pay attention to what is being
measured and how it is measured• Economics trumps Biology
What is Transition Success?
• Healthy Transition• Cows ready to get pregnant• Good start to lactation
What Are the Questions?
• Important to formulate questions appropriate for the dairy
• Strive to develop monitoring systems to answer questions quickly
• Can’t afford to dig a hole it takes months to dig out of
Parity Differences
• Must consider Lact=1 and Lact>1 separately in all transition metrics.
• Issues are different, physiology is different, solutions are different.
Watch-outs
• Repeats?– Activity Intervals in PCDART– Event Gaps in Dairy Comp
• Too few cows• Ignoring Failures• Inconsistent diagnosis of disease
Watch-outs
• Inaccurate milk weights (Test Day or parlor meter errors)
• Dairy Culls• Misleading metrics
Misleading metrics
• Peak Milk– Lagging, too much momentum,
ignores failures, vague, imprecise• 1st Test Day Milk
– Range error, Average error• Conception Rates• Fat test as proxy for health
Misleading metrics
• Metrics with Variation– Too few cows…
• Metrics with Bias– Ignoring animals…conception rate
• Metrics with Momentum– Too much time..
• Metrics with Lag– Too long to measure..
Variation• One number can greatly distort the
results• Small herds are a big problem• Example: DA Rate
– 10 cows calved in Jan– No DA’s (0%)– If 1 DA, increases to 10%
• Solution: Add more time (calvings) to calculation
Transition Numbers with Variation…
• Crude Rule of Thumb: Any number with <50 observations
Momentum
• When too much time goes into the calculation, changes are difficult to detect, or take too long to detect.
• Large changes can have a small impact on parameter
Transition Numbers with Momentum…
• Peak Milk• Days Open• Calving Interval
Bias
• Errors that occur when data is ignored or not used in the calculation
• Using the wrong subset of cows, not including all of the cows, or not recording all of the data.
First service conception rate – A Biased Number
• 2 breeding pens with 100 heifers each
• Pen 1– 50 heifers bred, 40 conceived– 80% 1st service conception rate
• Pen 2– 100 heifers bred, 60 conceived– 60% first service conception rate
• 20 more pregnant heifers in #2
Transition Numbers with Bias…
• 1st service Conc rate• Peak Milk• Days Open• Calving Interval
What Are Some Questions Related to Transition
Success?
• Three Areas1. Healthy Transition2. Cows ready to get pregnant3. Good start to lactation
Healthy Transition: Questions
• How many cows are leaving in early lactation?
• How many cows are getting sick?• Are cows eating?• What do they look like?
Healthy Transition Metrics I like….
• 30 and 90 day cull rates – Cohort vs monthly– Goals
• 3% and 7% for lact=1• 5% and 10% for lact>1
• DA, RP, MET, and MAST rate– Set goals for each dairy
• % cows <40 DIM that are <50 lbs
Healthy Transition Metrics to use with
caution…
• DMI for close-up• DMI for fresh pen
Healthy Transition Metrics I don’t like…
• Fat percent of fresh cows• Fat:Protein ratios for fresh cows
Healthy Transition Future metrics?
• BHB in milk• Body Weight in Fresh Cows?• Temp in Fresh cows?
Cows Ready to Get Pregnant: Questions
• Are cows losing too much body condition?
• Do cows have adequate body condition by 50 DIM?
• How many cows are inseminated within 21 days of the VWP?
• How many cows are pregnant within 21 days of the VWP?
Getting Cows Pregnant, Metrics I like…
• 1st cycle Preg Rate for recent calvings
• 1st cycle service rate for recent calvings
• Scatter-plot of Days to 1st breeding vs. date
• % Preg by 100 DIM and 150 DIM
Getting Fresh Cows Pregnant, Metrics to use
with caution…
• Conception rates– 1st service– By DIM
• Conception rates are potentially biased, so you need to understand the bias
Getting Fresh Cows Pregnant, Metrics I don’t
like…
• Days Open• Calving Interval
Fresh Cow Milk:Questions
• Are cows ramping up quickly in milk?
• Do they milk during the peak window?
• How many cows are “falling through the cracks”
Fresh Cow MilkMetrics I like…
• Week 4 Milk• Week 8 milk• % over 100 lbs in herd• % of cows <40 DIM that are <50
lbs• 305ME projection at 2nd test day
Fresh Cow MilkMetrics I don’t like…
• Peak Milk• 1st TD milk• Lactation curves
Why do we ignore components when
assessing performance?
Biological measure of efficiency vs economics
• Biology– 3.5% Fat corrected Milk
• (0.515 x milk lbs) + (13.86 * fat lbs)
– 4.0% Fat corrected Milk• (0.40 x milk lbs) + (15.00 * fat lbs)
– Energy Corrected Milk• (0.323 x milk lbs) + (12.82 * fat lbs) + (7.13 x prot lbs)
Biological measure of efficiency vs economics
• Economics– Money Corrected Milk™
• Value of milk produced relative to 3.5% fat, 3.0% protein and static component values
• Units: pounds per day
Example
Cow A• 90 lbs milk• 4.20% fat• 3.40% protein• 5.65% other solids
Cow B• 113 lbs milk• 3.30% fat• 2.60% protein• 5.65% other solids
Which Fresh Cow is better?
Example
• Component Prices– Fat: $2.50/lb– Protein: $3.00/lb– Other Solids: $0.15/lb
Example
• Milk check adjustments– Quality: $0.50/cwt– Hauling: -$1.00/cwt– Promotion: -$0.15/cwt– Basis: $2.00/cwt
Which Cow is better?
Cow A• 90 lbs milk• 4.20% fat• 3.40% protein• 5.65% other solids
Cow B• 113 lbs milk• 3.30% fat• 2.60% protein• 5.65% other solids
Which cow is better?
Cow A• 90 lbs milk• 4.20% fat• 3.40% protein• 5.65% other solids• FCM: 98.7 lbs
Cow B• 113 lbs milk• 3.30% fat• 2.60% protein• 5.65% other solids• FCM: 109.8 lbs
FCM = 3.5% Fat Corrected Milk
Which cow is better?
Cow A• 90 lbs milk• 4.20% fat• 3.40% protein• 5.65% other solids• FCM: 98.7 lbs• ECM: 99.3 lbs
Cow B• 113 lbs milk• 3.30% fat• 2.60% protein• 5.65% other solids• FCM: 109.8 lbs• ECM: 105.2 lbs
ECM = Energy Corrected Milk
Which cow is better?
Cow A• 90 lbs milk• 4.20% fat• 3.40% protein• 5.65% other solids• FCM: 98.7 lbs• ECM: 99.3 lbs• MCM: 103.3 lbs
Cow B• 113 lbs milk• 3.30% fat• 2.60% protein• 5.65% other solids• FCM: 109.8 lbs• ECM: 105.2 lbs• MCM: 103.3 lbs
MCM = Money Corrected Milk
Which cow is better?
Cow A• 90 lbs milk• 4.20% fat• 3.40% protein• 5.65% other solids• FCM: 98.7 lbs• ECM: 99.3 lbs• MCM: 103.3 lbs• Income/day = $20.61
Cow B• 113 lbs milk• 3.30% fat• 2.60% protein• 5.65% other solids• FCM: 109.8 lbs• ECM: 105.2 lbs• MCM: 103.3 lbs• Income/day = $20.61
Conclusions
• Understand what you are measuring
• Be sure there are enough cows to determine differences
• Look at the cows• Don’t ignore components
Questions?