URS LUTERBACHER
04/20/23
Water Asymmetries, Climate Change and Conflict
Preamble
Water, even in the form of fresh water is globally relatively abundant and constant in mass
There are however huge regional disparities in terms of its availability
The water situation can be serious in arid and semi arid regions of the globe and lead to competition in different sectors
More than 70% is used for irrigation, over 90% is semi arid and arid areas
The current boom in agricultural prices could aggravate this situation
Freshwater Withdrawal by Sector (2000)
Sou
rce:
Peo
ple
and
Eco
syst
ems.
Was
hing
ton
DC
, US
A 2
000
Mountain Regions are Usually Abundant Sources of Water
However asymmetries are often present in terms of access to the resource due either to geography or to strong social inequalities
Climate change and low latitude or close to the equator glacier melt could aggravate these problems
Thus mountain regions are also often sources of conflicts internal and international
Example of an Internal Conflict:Nepal
Since the mid 1990’s a Maoist guerrilla has initiated a civil war
The Nepalese monarchy in charge of governing has during the same time witnessed a period of instability
It became increasingly authoritarian until recently when it had to agree to relinquish power under pressure from both a democratic opposition and the Maoist guerrilla and was actually terminated as an institution
Illustration of the Conflict
Fatalities (Source ISS)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1996
19
97
1
998
1
999
2
000
2
001
2
002
2
003
2
004
2
005
IISS INSEC
Government forces have progressively increased to about to 130 000 whereas Maoists can count on 200 000 sympathizers
This situation gets clearer when one takes into account
84% of the population is rural and lives from agriculture
Access to water has been going down dramatically for significant segments of the population
Water Availability over Time in Nepal(Source FAO)
Water resources: total internal per capita (m3/inhab/yr)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1958-1962 1963-1967 1968-1972 1973-1977 1978-1982 1983-1987 1988-1992 1993-1997 1998-2002 2003-2007
Water Conflicts Have Also International Dimensions
In the Middle East
In Central Asia
In Africa
In East Asia and North America
Illustration with 2 Cases
Example: The Nile River
Asymmetric access to river water: Euphrates river basin and Central
Asia
Asymmetric access to water resources is characteristic of mountain regions where water originates: 2 regions
Middle East
Central Asia: Dispute upstream countries, downstream countries over Soviet inherited water allocations: Here reversed situation, downstream countries are more powerful
Climate Change Predictions Middle East
Theory: Water Allocation is part of the "Common" or free Access Problem studied by
Dasgupta and Heal
Open access generally leads to inefficiencies and overuse of resources
The problem can be compounded by asymmetries between different users or producers
Commons Problems can usually be solved with a taxation system leading to a tax equilibrium or a property rights system: standard solutions
Market for externalities solution
Instruments of solution
Taxation
Theory: Symmetry and Asymmetries
Standard solutions often don’t work
They can add to the problem if for instance property rights have initially been distributed in a way that leads to inefficiencies
They will then often lead to conflict and credibility problems
However preexisting property arrangements might make this
difficult
Credibility Issues: Perfect and imperfect Information
Paradoxically in a sequential bargaining process the lack of knowledge of the opponent’s real intentions can lead to prudence and keep the other side prudent as well (risk averse)
It can thus lead to the emergence of equilibria which can lead to cooperative outcomes
It is best if such outcomes are backed by international institutional settings
Central Asia
Central Asia has Good Water Resources from Mountains and
Glaciers
Example: Kyrgyzstan Petrov Glacier, Ak-Shyrak Range
Alt: 3800 m
Water Use leads here to major inefficiencies
Water is wasted for cotton production in areas otherwise not suited for this culture
It is provided for free most often so no incentive to preserve it
32,000 km of Canals, poorly maintained and full of leaks
Karakoum canal: 1,340 km open air in the Turkmenistan Desert
These lead to transboundary conflicts on allocations
Countries are constrained by a water quota system dating back to the Soviet Era The Almaty Agreement (1992) Some extensions and revisions in different years
especially in (1998: exact amount of energy to be exported)
Under the system Kyrgyzstan gets only 10% of the waters of the Syr Daria basin
This prohibits the use of major developments in power generation
Any attempts to retain more water has lead to retaliations by down-stream countries
Interruption of fossil fuel deliveries
Conflict is the most inefficient form of environmental management: Can we do
better?
Project: an attempt at proposing solutions
Such solutions have to enhance efficiency
All regions have to profit
Potential of Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan generates an annual total flow of about 51 km3
This flow could increase by 10 % under projected climate change through precipitations and glacier melt
Hydropower could extend to 150 billion kwh if potential fully used
Basic Economic Trends:Value Added:Value added is the net output of a
sector after adding up all outputs and subtracting intermediate inputs. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or depletion and degradation of natural resources. Value Added in Industry: (Source: World Bank)
Value Added in Industry in Billions (Constant 1995 USD)
02468
1012141618
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Uzbekistan
Value Added in Agriculture
Value Added in Agriculture in billions (Constant 1995 USD)
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Uzbekistan
Solution to Conflict
Is it possible to improve the welfare of the whole region: Kyrgyzstan +Kazakhstan +Uzbekistan?
Yes, by letting Kyrgyzstan use its full hydroelectric potential and export it cheaply to the region
Kyrgyzstan with 150 billion kwh potential can produce more than enough for the region: In 2000, entire production of Kyrgyzstan +Kazakhstan +Uzbekistan= 106 billions
Tadjikistan has almost the same potential, so 300 billion kwh would be available !
Kyrgyz production can use high altitude areas with low population densities:
Population (People per Sq Km)
0 - 2
3 - 10
11 - 20
21 - 50
51 - 100
101 - 200
201 - 500
501 - 1000
>1000
Kyrgyzstan can make use of high altitude dams
They can advantageously replace fossil fuel facilities
They can adapt instantaneously to demand and intervene in times where spot prices are high
But are they advantageous for the whole region?
Answer with the help of a numerical model
Electricity Spot Prices in Europe:German and Dutch Market: Spot
PricesJanuary 2001 – April 2002
Yes: Expanded production can improve total value added for the three countries! This solution presents however
the credibility problems mentioned
Central Asia: Total Value Added
0.0E+00
2.0E+09
4.0E+09
6.0E+09
8.0E+09
1.0E+10
1.2E+10
1.4E+10
1.6E+10
1.8E+10
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Co
nst
ant
1995
$
Calculated Value Added
Real Total Added Value
Total Value Added with Total Potential Kyrgyz Hydropower
Strategic Implications
What are the implications of this finding and which strategies concretely should the decision makers apply ?
Decision maker 1 should offer a contract to decision maker 2 guaranteeing a share of his gains to her
The credibility problem could be lifted on the one hand if Decision maker 1 does not act too aggressively thus keeping 2 risk averse and on the other if the contract is guaranteed by a third party like an international institution.