University of California, Santa Cruz – August 8, 2011
50% increase in population by 2050
70% increase in food demand by 2050
40% increase in energy demand by 2030The challenge is not simply meeting increased
demand, but doing so sustainably.
Slide 5
(EPA, 2010)
(EIA, 2010)
Emerging policy innovationsSynergies with poverty
alleviationPerhaps better to ask “How?”
1. How much land is available?2. What are the life-cycle impacts?3. What is bioenergy precarious role in
the climate-energy nexus?
12
17001710
17201) Abandoned agriculture areas from historical land use data (HYDE, SAGE)
2) Exclude agriculture-to-forest and agriculture-to-urban (MODIS12C1)
3) High estimate of potential yields from ecosystem model (CASA)
4) Regional bioenergy potential on abandoned agriculture lands.
13
14(Campbell et al., ES&T, 2008)
Algae bioenergy sustainability (Wiley, Campbell, McKuin, WER, 2011) Wastewater co-benefits Efficient harvesting with electrocoagulation and electrofloculation
(Trent, 2010)
Electrocoagulation / Electroflocculation
Surface charge analysis of algae
(Wiley, Campbell, McKuin, WER, 2011)
A global resource… Abandoned Agriculture
Regional opportunities… Mountaintop Mining
No land use… Offshore Algae Not commercially viable yet Electrochemical approach is emerging
Slide 20
?
(Campbell et al., Science, 2009)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Gro
ss E
lect
ricity
Out
put
Fuel
Cyc
le E
lect
ric I
nput
Fuel
Cyc
le G
asol
ine
Inpu
t
Veh
icle
Cyc
le E
lect
ric I
nput
Veh
icle
Cyc
le G
asol
ine
Inpu
t
Net
Out
put
0
10
20
30
40
50
Gro
ss E
than
ol O
utpu
t
Fuel
Cyc
le E
lect
ric I
nput
Fuel
Cyc
le G
asol
ine
Inpu
t
Veh
icle
Cyc
le E
lect
ric I
nput
Veh
icle
Cyc
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asol
ine
Inpu
t
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Out
put
Tra
nspo
rtat
ion
Mil
eage
(10
3m
i ha
-1y-1
)
a) Ethanol b) Bioelectricity
(Campbell, Lobell, & Field, Science, 2009)23
(Campbell, Sloan, Snyder, et al., In Prep)
2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065
Year
Future
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Yiel
d A
nom
aly
(%)
Year
Historical
Volatility = 15% Volatility = 30%
(DOE, 2009)
Converting Brazilian residue to electricity has greater GHG benefits than conversion to ethanol
Residue-based ethanol has small impact on US energy security but electricity would have massive impact on Brazilian energy security
(Campbell & Block, ES&T, 2010)
(Campbell et al., In Prep)
(McKinsey, 2007)
(Casillas and Kammen, Science, 2010)
(McKuin & Campbell, In Prep)
(Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004)
Role in stratosphere (Crutzen, 1976)A novel tracer of carbon
sequestration?
CO2 COS
Fig. 1. The dominant land fluxes of CO2 are photosynthesis and respiration while OCS uptake is influenced by a process linked to photosynthesis.
(Campbell et al., Science, 2008)
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000350
400
450
500
550
CO
S (ppt)
Year
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000350
400
450
500
550
CO
S (ppt)
Year
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000350
400
450
500
550
CO
S (ppt)
Year
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000350
400
450
500
550
CO
S (ppt)
Year
a) GPP Growth b) GPP Fixed
(Campbell et al., In Prep)
Rapid growth with or without sustainability basis.
Resources available for a multi-disciplinary approach to bioenergy research and education.
Many opportunities for engaging with industry, policy, and mass media.
NSF/CAREER (Env’l Sustainability Program #0955141)
DOE/Institute for Climatic Change (#050516Z30)
Stanford/Carnegie: Chris Field, Joe Berry, David Lobell
Iowa: Jerry Schnoor, Greg Carmichael
NASA: Stephanie Vay, Randy Kawa
Wonderful Students! Andrew Mckuin, Brandi McKuin, Chi-Chung Tsao, Patrick Wiley, Xianyu Yang
Question: What are the life-cycle GHG emissions of ethanol (g CO2e MJ-1)?
Objective: Team presentations in 30 min (~4 slides)
Materials: http://faculty.ucmerced.edu/ecampbell3/ucsc/
Approach: Modify a widely referenced LCA model (Farrell et al., Science, 2006) with updated information Team 1: Crutzen et al. (N2O) Team 2: Plevin et al. (Feedstock location) Team 3: Searchinger et al. (Indirect land-use) Team 4: Fargione et al. (Direct land-use)
209.631.9312 | [email protected]
(Tilman , 2009)
(Tilman, 2009)
(Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007)
(Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007)
(RAEL)
MORTALITY HOSPITAL ADMISSIONMORTALITY HOSPITAL ADMISSION
(Campbell, et al., In Preparation)
(Campbell et al., In Preparation)
(Fox & Campbell, ES&T, 2010)
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