Understanding Community Vulnerability & Adaptation
Community Vulnerability and Adaptation
• Measuring and mapping vulnerability• Combined indicators
• Risk/stress mapping• Spatial intersection/interaction
• Examining adaptation strategies• Contingent behavior
Vulnerability: Existing Studies
• Agreement on idea but variety of frameworks• Common approach• Aggregate measure (at community level)• A bundle of indicators (Cutter Model)• Demographic, economic, ethnic, political, cultural etc.• Common analysis tools:
• Factor extraction, cluster analysis etc.
Vulnerability and Intervention Mapping:ESDA Approach
• Measurement is not enough• Its about understanding
• Where are the ‘hotspots’?• Are we serving the communities in need?• Where should we prioritize our efforts first?
Spatial non-stationarity: VPM modelWUI vs. rural (affluent vs. poor)
Issues with existing measures
• Too general:• Vulnerable to what?• Weather station record vs. perceived effect
• Assumption of homogenous effect:• Does poverty always necessarily translate to vulnerability?• Do income and ethnicity have the same marginal effect?
• Can not establish causation:• little policy implication• Poor predictive power
• Unit issue:• Areal unit (neighborhood) vs. social unit (i.e., fishermen)
Need for a specific/robust function of vulnerability
• Specific (to hazard in context):• Vulnerability (drought, heat etc.)• DDs vs. avg. temp.
• Weighted (for vulnerability factors):• Lit. review (significance, effect size etc.)
V = f(p1.X1+p2.X2+p3.X3+….pn.Xn)
• Comprehensive yet flexible:• Intervention variable
Example case• Broad context: Climate change• Specific context: vulnerability to heat effect• Heat waves, illness, death tolls• Socio-income factors• Resources (AC, housing condition etc.)• Intervention variables (i.e., neighborhood canopy coverage)
• Policy question:• Will an investment in urban/community forestry programs result in
reducing the vulnerability?• Could a roadside plantation bring a larger benefit than subsidy for
AC installation?
Vulnerability and Adaptation:survey based approach
• Change in resource condition• Knowledge, perception• Contingent behavior
• IVI• How important?• Vulnerable?• Impacted yet?
Highly important
Not at all important
Highly vulnerableNot at all vulnerable
Not at all affected
Slightly affected
Example context: Heat effect
Highly important
Not at all important
Highly vulnerableNot at all vulnerable
Slightly affected
Highly affected
Example context: Trout decline due to stream temp.
Assessing adaptation• How will people adapt to change• List of potential reactions/strategies• Decision tree• Contingent reaction
• Probability • Contingent impact
Trout decline in GA site
Continue fishing here Move to other places
Stop fishingContinue fishing
Fish for trout Fish for non-trout Other places in GA Out of state (TN, NC, SC)
For Trout For non-trout
Move to headwater Wait until water gets cooler
Skip warmer months (July, Aug.)
Make fewer trips
HuntingHikingBikingBird/nature viewingATVOutdoor team sportsGolfTarget shootingCanoeing/KayakingMotor boatingCamping
Understanding Adaptation:Contingent Behavior Approach
Understanding Community Vulnerability & Adaptation