UK and Global Economic Insights
Dr Andrew SentanceSenior Economic Adviser, PwC
Hospitality and Tourism Summit 2015London, 30th June 2015
PwC
The world economy in the 21st century World GDP, US $ trillion (current prices)
2000 2008 2015 2020*0
20
40
60
80
100
120
33
6375
98
Source: IMF * forecast
PwC
Asia-Pacific now the dominant regionPercentage share of world GDP, current market prices & exchange rates
1980 1990 2000 2010 20150%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
US EU-28 Asia-PacificSource: IMF World Economic Outlook
PwC
Global growth in 2015 – latest PwC forecasts
Source: PwC June 2015 projections
Russia
Germany
UK
US
Brazil
India
Spain
Key
Canada
Mexico
South Africa
Australia
Japan
Italy
Greece
Ireland
France
2.2
2.4
2.8
-0.4
2.5
1.3
3.4
2.31.7
0.4
2.0
7.0
-1.1
2.6
7.0
1.1
-5.0
x.x = GDP growth in 2015
China
PwC
Growth in leading EU economiesAnnual % GDP growth to Q1 2015 in 10 largest EU economies
Italy
Austria
France
Belgium
Germany
Netherlands
UK
Sweden
Spain
Poland
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
Source: Eurostat
PwC
Growth over UK recovery in major business sectors% per annum increase in output, Q3 2009 – Q1 2015
Mining, oil, etcFinance/insurance
Electricity & gasAgriculture
Water & wasteManufacturingOther services
ConstructionHotels & restaurants
Property servicesTransport & commsRetail & wholesale
Prof & business services
-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%Source: Office for National Statistics
PwC
UK leads G7 on services export contributionExports of commercial services as % of GDP, 2013
Japan
US
Canada
Italy
Germany
France
UK
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%Source: World Trade Organisation and IMF
PwC
Key issues for UK Hospitality & Tourism
Global and domestic economic stability
UK role in the EU and referendum outcome
Attractiveness of UK as business/investment location
Transport investment, particularly airport capacity
Labour availability and skill shortages
Transition to higher interest rates