How does design add value?Techniques for capturing the
economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference
26th April 2012
Tim Stonor
Managing Director, Space Syntax LimitedVisiting Professor, The Bartlett, UCL
[email protected]@Tim_Stonor
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Trafalgar Square The new Central Staircase
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Nottingham, England Old Market Square
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Millennium Bridge, London
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing
Spatial accessibility
Low High
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing
Spatial accessibility
Low High
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing
Spatial accessibility
Low High
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
y = .784x + 2.147, R-squared: .589
Spatial accessibility
Pede
stria
n m
ovem
ent
Spatial accessibility
-10123456789
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
y = 1.235x + 1.048, R-squared: .702
Vehi
cle
mov
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Research shows that 60-80% of movement flows are due to the structure of the network, measured by spatial accessibility.
More accessible places get more movement.
An evidence-based approach to urban planning
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Courtesy of The TLRN Central London Pedestrian Study by Atkins
80% retail located on 20% most spatially accessible streets
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Unplanned settlements Spatial layout distributes land use
Land use distribution Spatial accessibility
Spatial accessibility
Low High
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Area 5
Area 6
Area 3
Area 2
Perth, AustraliaProperty crime analysis
Spatial layout influences crime & safety
Spatial accessibility
Low High
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
What is the city for?
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Movement is the lifeblood of the city.
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Congestion The goal of advanced civilisations?
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
What is the city for? The city is for transaction
Social
Economic
Cultural
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Designing for movement Elephant and Castle
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Designing for movement Elephant and Castle
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Designing for movement Elephant and Castle
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
1916 Coherent urban layout“The Piccadilly of the south”
2005 Fragmented urban layout- isolated, divided communities- disposable income exodus.
Designing for movement Elephant and Castle
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
The degree to which the design of the development creates an accessible, intelligible spatial layout.
Elephant & Castle Pedestrian Forecast Model
Transport attraction
Land use attraction
Spatial layout attraction
Pedestrian forecast
The degree to which public and private transport systems integrate with the development.
The strength of attraction of movement-sensitive land uses, especially retail.
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Spatial accessibility
Low High
Pedestrian Forecast Model Spatial layout attraction
Elephant and Castle
Kennington R
oad
Bla
ckfr
iars
Roa
d
Southbank University
Borough Station
Lambeth North Station
Weekend R square 40%
Weekday R square 35%
1504
_Ax_
Ex_
R20
00
Spatial layout attraction is calculated by analysing the network of pedestrian routes and measuring the degree to which individual route segments are likely to be used by people moving through the area.
The degree to which the spatial layout attraction influences actual pedestrian movement is indicated by the R square value where the higher R square means a higher degree of fit (0% is no fit, 100% is perfect fit).
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Retail attraction
Shopping Centre
over 800m700 – 800 m 600 – 700 m 500 – 600 m400 – 500 m300 – 400 m200 – 300 m100 – 200 m
0- 100 m
Origins
Metric distance
Elephant and Castle
Kennington R
oad
Bla
ckfr
iars
Roa
d
Southbank University
Lambeth North Station
Weekend R square 51%
Weekday R square 38%
1504
_Ax_
Ex_
MC
A_C
entre
s
Retail attraction is calculated by measuring the distance of any route segment from the two principal areas of retail focus –Elephant and Castle Shopping Centre and the East Street Market.
East Street Market
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Transport attraction
New Kent Road
Elephant and Castle
Kennington R
oad
Bla
ckfr
iars
Roa
d
Southbank University
Borough Station
Lambeth North Station
Kennington Station
Weekend R square 28%
Weekday R square 26%
1504
_Ax_
Ex_
MC
A_B
us
Transport attraction is calculated according to the distance of any pedestrian segment from either a bus stop, tube or rail station.
over 800m700 – 800 m 600 – 700 m 500 – 600 m400 – 500 m300 – 400 m200 – 300 m100 – 200 m
0- 100 m
Bus stop
Underground station
Metric distance
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Weekday R square = 60% Weekend R square=73%
Pedestrian forecast
Pedestrian Forecast Model
Spatial layout attractionWeekday R square = 49% Weekend R square = 54%
Retail attractionWeekday R square = 38% Weekend R square = 51%
Transport attractionWeekday R square = 26% Weekend R square = 28%
Act
ual
mov
emen
t
Forecastmovement
Act
ual
mov
emen
t
Forecastmovement
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Design proposal Forecast
>600300 – 600150 – 300 100 – 15060 – 100 0 – 60
50m 100m0
People Per Hour
1504
_Ped
Mov
_For
ecas
t_Pr
opM
aste
rpla
n
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Proposed retail land use
Pedestrian movementPeople per hour
400+
0-2525-5050-100100-200200-400
Pedestrian movement forecast 9am
Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility2. Land use type & density3. Sun path4. Time
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Proposed retail land use
Pedestrian movementPeople per hour
400+
0-2525-5050-100100-200200-400
Pedestrian movement forecast 12pm
Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility2. Land use type & density3. Sun path4. Time
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Proposed retail land use
Pedestrian movementPeople per hour
400+
0-2525-5050-100100-200200-400
Pedestrian movement forecast 2pm
Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility2. Land use type & density3. Sun path4. Time
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Proposed retail land use
Pedestrian movementPeople per hour
400+
0-2525-5050-100100-200200-400
Pedestrian movement forecast 4pm
Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility2. Land use type & density3. Sun path4. Time
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Proposed retail land use
Pedestrian movementPeople per hour
400+
0-2525-5050-100100-200200-400
Pedestrian movement forecast 6pm
Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility2. Land use type & density3. Sun path4. Time
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Urban value
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Design factors influencing property security UrbanBuzz
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Value of property security UrbanBuzz
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Value of property security
0
UrbanBuzz
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Rateable value
Average rateable value
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Cor
rela
tions
Socio economic
Spatial layout
Rateable value Socio-spatial associations
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Rateable value Forecast model
Rateable value =
IMD score +
Global accessibility +
Local accessibility
Correlation 88%
Rateable Value = 731.267 + -3901.326*Income score + 6.4129e-8*Choice RN + 9.718*Choice R400
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Case studies
Earls Court Elephant & Castle
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Earls Court Scenarios
Dislocated layout
Inte
grat
ion
R40
0
Proposed layoutAccessibility score 35Accessibility score 75
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Elephant & Castle master plan Scenarios
Proposed layout Dislocated layout
Inte
grat
ion
R40
0
Accessibility score: 93 Accessibility score: 57
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Income Score
Local accessibility
Global accessibility
average rental value (m2)
Earls Court Proposed Medium High Medium £897.52Earls Court Dislocated Medium Low Medium £508.03Elephant & Castle Proposed Low High High £921.06Elephant & Castle Dislocated Low Low High £571.61
Average rateable value forecast
Dislocated Alternative
Proposed layout
Proposed layout
Earls Court Elephant and Castle
Dislocated Alternative
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Average rateable value forecast
Proposed layout plan rateable value
Dislocated layout rateable value
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Financial model
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Financial model Revenue assumptions
Office rental value Residential rental value Retail rental value
average rental value
(m2)
Earls Court Proposed £897.52
Earls Court Dislocated £508.03
Elephant & Castle Proposed £921.06
Elephant & Castle Dislocated £571.61
Savills 2010 Jones Lang LaSalle 2010 Space Syntax 2012
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Build Function Description
Adjusted for London @ 1.14£/ Sq Meter
Mean£/sq.M
Median£/sq.M
Range£/sq.M
Inter‐QuartileRange£/sq.M
Offices‐general 1,374£ 1205 1148 520‐3827 943‐1366Offices‐Air conditioned General 1,512£ 1326 1218 520‐3827 1072‐1445
1‐2 stories 1,360£ 1193 1164 520‐2227 976‐13183‐5 stories 1,536£ 1347 1234 825‐3827 1143‐14686+ stories 1,915£ 1680 1391 1086‐2820 1334‐1917
Offices‐Non Air conditioned General 1,256£ 1102 1028 569‐2149 844‐12481‐2 stories 1,151£ 1010 974 569‐1711 802‐11563‐5 stories 1,355£ 1189 1116 586‐2149 947‐12966+ stories 1,764£ 1547 1622 1199‐1746
Offices‐With shops, banks, flats, etc 1,269£ 1113 972 726‐2142 866‐13631‐2 stories 1,024£ 898 849 726‐1196 796‐9733‐5 stories 1,229£ 1078 968 831‐1547 906‐11936+ stories 1,572£ 1379 1444 920‐2142 1110‐1577
Shops ‐ General 902£ 791 670 390‐1953 524‐8911‐2 stories 914£ 802 670 390‐1953 514‐9953‐5 stories 782£ 686 667 566‐845
Mixed Commercial Developments 1,164£ 1021 1032 495‐1493 613‐1437
Flats ‐ General 1,094£ 960 919 381‐2930 796‐10701‐2 stories 1,056£ 926 889 549‐1722 795‐10333‐5 stories 1,076£ 944 919 381‐1946 790‐10666+ stories 1,509£ 1324 1208 725‐2930 986‐1487
Financial model Cost assumptionsCost assumptions come from RICS (capital costs)
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Financial model Cash flow summary
Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2051 Jan-2052
Summary 0 1 2 39 40Income:Residential 13,622,949 14,031,637 209,438,086 215,721,228 Retail 3,178,118 3,273,461 48,860,116 50,325,920 Commercial 637,492 656,617 9,800,749 10,094,771 Base Rent 17,438,558£ 17,961,715£ 268,098,951£ 276,141,920£
Less Allowance for Vacancy 10% 1,743,856£ 1,796,171£ 26,809,895£ 27,614,192£ Total Rental Income 15,694,702£ 16,165,543£ 241,289,056£ 248,527,728£
Less Operating ExpensesTotal operating Expense 1,395,410£ 1,395,410£ 7,186,362£ 7,186,362£
Net Operating -£ 14,299,292£ 14,770,133£ 234,102,694£ 241,341,366£
Less Debt Service 38,317,560 38,317,560 38,317,560 38,317,560 Less Capital Expenditures 145,085,917
Net Income before Taxes 145,085,917-£ 24,018,268-£ 23,547,427-£ 195,785,134£ 203,023,806£ Corporate Tax Rate 25% -£ -£ -£ 48,946,284£ 50,755,951£
Net After Taxes 145,085,917-£ 24,018,268-£ 23,547,427-£ 146,838,851£ 152,267,854£
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Urban value Uplift Over 40 Years
A B C
DislocatedLayout
Proposed layout with retail uplift
Proposed layout with retail, residential and office uplift
Difference between A and C
IRR 11% 12.5% 14% + 27%
NPV £47 Million £ 85 Million £ 145 Million + £98 Million
A B C
DislocatedLayout
Proposed layout with retail uplift
Proposed layout with retail, residential and office uplift
Difference between A and C
IRR 15 % 16 % 18 % + 20 %
NPV £665 Million £741 Million £1.0 Billion + £335 Million
Earls Court
Elephant & Castle
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Dissemination
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Overview Methods Technologies Reference
A Global choice pattern of Jeddah
OverviewIntroductionContentsRepresentations of spaceAnalysis of spatial relationsInterpretive modelsTheories
B Local choice pattern of Jeddah
Online Training PlatformAnalysis of spatial relations <<4/4>
Scale - RadiusIn order to analyse the different scales of spatial properties (A, B)(eg. those found at community scale), the concept of radius is introduced to serve as a tool for selecting sub-systems. For example, we select all spaces up to 100m from a certain space. The radius also can be defined as topological or geometric distance.
As a result, we have a package of measures assessing spatial configuration. At least, each of the six measures (integration and choice with three definitions of distance) can be applied with the three definitions of radius, giving a total of 18 measures, which can be applied at any radius, so yielding a potentially very large set of possible syntactic measures.
Standard measuresHowever, the standard measures, widely used in space syntax, are angular integration and choice at various metric radii, because these standard measures lead to more e powerful analyses, which have been supported and verified by a large number of studies and practices.
In particular, academic research (Hillier & Iida, 2005) has demonstrated that least angular analysis, rather than fewest turns and/or metric shortest routes analysis, best corresponds to movement patterns observed in real cities. This can be most likely explained by the fact that people use an angular geometric model of their environment to calculate distances. .
Draft
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Social valueEconomic valueEnvironmental value
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Urban valueSocial valueEconomic valueEnvironmental value
6.5 billion
9 billion
2010 2050
World Population
3 billion
7 billion
2010 2050
Urban Population
1 billion
3 billion
2010 2050
1.5 billion
2010 2050
Middle Class
4 billion
Informal Urban Population
Source: UN-Habitat, Goldmann Sachs
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Suppressed urban valueEnhanced urban value
Main street, mixing global & local movement
Fast highway separating global & local movement
An institutional challenge Which will it be?
Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places
17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012
Tim Stonor
Managing Director, Space Syntax LimitedVisiting Professor, The Bartlett, UCL
[email protected]@Tim_Stonor