Trends in religious observance and fertility behaviour:
global empirical results and theoretical models
Marion Burkimsher
Observatoire des Religions en Suisse
Université de Lausanne
How do we come to be here today?
Georgia: Proportion of age group attending religious services at least once a month
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
18-21 22-26 27-31 32-36 37-41 42-46 47-51 52-56 57-61 62-66 67-71 72-76 77-80
Age group
%
Women Men
Data source: GGP wave 1, 2006
Topics covered in presentation
• Religious attendance rates of young v. older people
• Trends in young people’s religiosity
• Trends in cohort religiosity
• Trends in attendance related to Human Development Index
• Relationship of fertility to religiosity
Age, cohort, period variations
• Age is an effect caused by a person’s age: trends will be caused because they get older over time
• Cohort effects are the influences of living through similar experiences of everyone born in eg. the 1950s, 1970s…
• Period effects affect everyone in a country in a fairly similar manner
Voas and others have found that cohort differentials (with each generation being less religious than the previous one) are the most important drivers of secularisation.
In Georgia the opposite is happening - a revival led by the young. In addition there are period affects of increased participation within cohorts
Relative religiosity of different age bands (age at time of survey)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
16-19 20-22 23-25 26-28 29-31 32-39 40s 50s 60s 70 andover
Age band
Relative religiosity
DE, DK, FR, GB, NL, NO, SE 7 countries plus IT 7 countries plus IT, BE & ES
Reference category
Data: WVS 1981, 1990, 1999 ESS 2006
Effect on mean attendance rate from changing cohort mix
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1981 1990 1999 2008
Year of survey
% attenders
Cohort 1 (oldest) Cohort 2 Cohort 3 Cohort 4 Cohort 5 (youngest)
Trend in mean
participation rate
Topics covered in presentation
• Religious attendance rates of young v. older people
• Trends in young people’s religiosity
• Trends in cohort religiosity
• Trends in attendance related to Human Development Index
• Relationship of fertility to religiosity
Pattern of religious attendance by country
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Proportion of young people who are attenders (%)
Proportion of older people who are attenders (%)
Ratio 2:1 of old:young attendance rates
Ratio 1:1 of old:young attendance rates
Georgia
Armenia
Bulgaria
Bosnia/Herz
PhilippinesZimbabwe
Uganda
Nigeria
Ireland
Switzerland
Spain
Greece
Japan
China
Andorra
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hungary
NetherlandsBelgium
Zambia
Ghana
Rwanda
Australia
WVS & ESS data mainly
Cohort differentials in attendance rates, older cohorts
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1930s 1940s 1950s
Cohort bands
Average attendance rates, %
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Spain
Finland
France
Great Britain
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Sweden
Switzerland
Bulgaria
Czech Rep
Estonia
Georgia
Hungary
Latvia
Poland
Romania
Russia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Conclusions / 1
• In only a few countries of the world are young people more
religious than older people: those with this pattern are in Africa
and some ex-communist countries
• In (almost) all countries in both western and eastern Europe the
cohorts born in the 1940s are less religious than those born in the
1930s AND those born in the 1950s are less religious than those
born in the 1940s
• It would seem that there was a sea change in the post-war
generations compared those born before or during the 2nd World
War: the religiosity of those born before and during the war could
be a legacy of those times of insecurity (Norris & Inglehart, 2004)
How to deduce real (=period) trends?
Need time series of data. The WVS and ESS can now offer this.
Using both, we can look at the period 1981-2008 for some
countries, though only post-1989 for the ex-communist states.
Then either:
Look at trends of a certain age group. Young people are
likely to react first to new trends. Therefore I have chosen to
look at the under-30s.
And / or:
Look at trends for specific cohorts, ie. the generations born
in different decades
Topics covered in presentation
• Religious attendance rates of young v. older people
• Trends in young people’s religiosity
• Trends in cohort religiosity
• Trends in attendance related to Human Development Index
• Relationship of fertility to religiosity
Two questions from WVS
1. “Independently of whether you go to church or not, would you say you are:
• A religious person• Not a religious person• A convinced atheist” (this response was analysed)
2. “How often do you attend religious services?”
• at least once a month = ‘Attender’
Self-reported attendance rates (may over- or under-
estimate, depending on expectations of society)
Head counts of people in church can give lower
estimates
NB: Includes any religion
Active believers Non-religious
Attend religious services Self-defined atheist
Believe in God…
Personal prayer
Affiliation (‘belonging’)
No belief in God
Never prays
No affiliation
Fuzzies
Notes about graphs:
Vertical scales vary slide to slide
Thin continuous lines denote proportion of attenders
Dashed lines denote the proportion of atheists
Country groupings and corresponding labels are arbitrary
Hypothetical illustration: proportion of young people who are atheists/attenders
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year of survey
Country 1 atheists Country 2 atheists Country 1 attenders Country 2 attenders
Country 1 is experiencing revivalCountry 2 is experiencing secularisation
WVS and ESS data
Ex-USSR countries - proportion of young people who are atheists/attenders
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year of survey
Russian Fed atheists Georgia atheists Latvia atheists Lithuania atheists Ukraine atheists
Russian Fed attenders Georgia attenders Latvia attenders Lithuania attenders Ukraine attenders
Conclusions / 2
• Some countries show clear indications of secularisation, eg.
Australia, Canada, Sweden, Ireland, Poland, Spain
• Some countries show clear indications of revival, eg. Georgia,
Russia, Romania, China
• In many countries the changes are not statistically significant
• There is a loose inverse correlation of attendance and atheism
• Since 2000 there has been a greater tendency to polarisation
than in the 1980s or 1990s
• The age group with the highest proportion of atheists is generally
the young (<30), though can also be the middle-aged (30-49)
• The age group with the highest attendance rate is almost
invariably the older group (50+)
• The biggest losses have been from the Catholic church
• The biggest gains have been in the national Orthodox churches
• Some countries have seen youth attendance rates of <5%,
but these low rates have not been maintained
Topics covered in presentation
• Religious attendance rates of young v. older people
• Trends in young people’s religiosity
• Trends in cohort religiosity
• Trends in attendance related to Human Development Index
• Relationship of fertility to religiosity
Cohorts trends, countries experiencing revival
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year of survey
Attendance rates, %
Romania 1950s Romania 1960s Romania 1970sLatvia 1950s Latvia 1960s Latvia 1970sRussia 1950s Russia 1960s Russia 1970sGeorgia 1950s Georgia 1960s Georgia 1970s
Data for Georgia: GGS in 2006 and EVS in 2008All other data is from WVS and ESS
Cohort differentials of post-war cohorts, secularising countries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s
Cohort bands
Average attendance rates, %
Austria
Belgium
Spain
Ireland
Italy
Portugal
Switzerland
Poland
Netherlands
Countries with quite stable cohort differentials
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s
Cohort bands
Average attendance rates, %
Denmark
Finland
France
Great Britain
Norway
Sweden
Bulgaria
Czech Rep
Estonia
Hungary
Latvia
Russia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Cohort differentials of post-war cohorts, countries experiencing revival
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s
Cohort bands
Average attendance rates, %
Georgia
Romania
Conclusions / 3
• In countries where young people are at least as religious as older people, then growth is commonly happening. This is most marked in Georgia, but it is also seen in Romania, Latvia and Russia.
• In countries where most secularisation is happening, then period effects are causing a decline in religiosity across many cohorts - AND there are large inter-cohort differentials. This is seen mainly in the predominantly Catholic countries (which often had higher attendance rates at the start of the period). Not all Catholic countries are being affected as strongly.
• In many countries there appears to be convergence to a certain level of religious observance; in the most secular countries this band is generally 6-12% of the younger cohorts. In other countries, there is convergence at a higher level.
• The two major events that have affected religious observance were the Second World War and the fall of communism.
Topics covered in presentation
• Religious attendance rates of young v. older people
• Trends in young people’s religiosity
• Trends in cohort religiosity
• Trends in attendance related to Human Development Index
• Relationship of fertility to religiosity
Modernisation > secularisation?
Plotted lines for all countries which have data for both
1. Human Development Index (HDI)Composite indicator (max. 100) combining measures of:
Health: life expectancy at birth
Education: adult literacy and school enrolment
Wealth: GDP per capita (PPP)
2. Religious attendance (WVS) relating to the same year or max. 1 year different from the HDI data
To be able to plot a trend needed data points from at least 2 years
45 countries plus Georgia plotted
All countries moved from left to right, ie to a higher HDI, except Belarus and Russia
Religiosity-Human Development Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96HDI
% attenders
Nigeria
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Malta
Ireland
United States
Poland
Brazil
S Korea
Mexico
Italy
RomaniaTurkey
IranPortugal
Hungary Great Britain
Czech RepRussia
Latvia
BelarusChina
Viet Nam
Ukraine
Moldova
Bulgaria
Canada
Austria
Spain
Argentina
South AfricaPeru
Georgia-lowHDI Georgia-highHDI
WVS data only, attendance rates of full sample, ie relating to whole population
Religiosity-Human Development Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96HDI
% attenders
Nigeria
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Malta
Ireland
United States
Poland
Brazil
S Korea
Mexico
Italy
RomaniaTurkey
IranPortugal
Hungary Great Britain
Czech RepRussia
Latvia
BelarusChina
Viet Nam
Ukraine
Moldova
Bulgaria
Canada
Austria
Spain
Argentina
South AfricaPeru
Georgia-lowHDI Georgia-highHDI
Religiosity-Human Development Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96HDI
% attenders
Nigeria
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Malta
Ireland
United States
Poland
Brazil
S Korea
Mexico
Italy
RomaniaTurkey
IranPortugal
Hungary Great Britain
Czech RepRussia
Latvia
BelarusChina
Viet Nam
Ukraine
Moldova
Bulgaria
Canada
Austria
Spain
Argentina
South AfricaPeru
Georgia-lowHDI Georgia-highHDI
Religiosity-Human Development Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96HDI
% attenders
Nigeria
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Malta
Ireland
United States
Poland
Brazil
S Korea
Mexico
Italy
RomaniaTurkey
IranPortugal
Hungary Great Britain
Czech RepRussia
Latvia
BelarusChina
Viet Nam
Ukraine
Moldova
Bulgaria
Canada
Austria
Spain
Argentina
South AfricaPeru
Georgia-lowHDI Georgia-highHDI
Religiosity-Human Development Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96HDI
% attenders
Nigeria
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Malta
Ireland
United States
Poland
Brazil
S Korea
Mexico
Italy
RomaniaTurkey
IranPortugal
Hungary Great Britain
Czech RepRussia
Latvia
BelarusChina
Viet Nam
Ukraine
Moldova
Bulgaria
Canada
Austria
Spain
Argentina
South AfricaPeru
Georgia-lowHDI Georgia-highHDI
Religiosity-Human Development Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96HDI
% attenders
Nigeria
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Malta
Ireland
United States
Poland
Brazil
S Korea
Mexico
Italy
RomaniaTurkey
IranPortugal
Hungary Great Britain
Czech RepRussia
Latvia
BelarusChina
Viet Nam
Ukraine
Moldova
Bulgaria
Canada
Austria
Spain
Argentina
South AfricaPeru
Georgia-lowHDI Georgia-highHDI
Conclusions / 4
• There is a correlation of higher development being associated
with lower religiosity, but the spread of values is wide
• There is a natural level of religiosity related to a country’s level of
development and there is convergence towards this
• Some countries have had a period of revival, which has then
been followed by renewed secularisation if that revival took them
above the “normal band”, eg. South Korea, Brazil, Mexico,
Romania
• Many countries are approaching maximum development (as
defined by the HDI), but the minimum attendance rates would
appear to be around 10-20% of the population
Topics covered in presentation
• Religious attendance rates of young v. older people
• Trends in young people’s religiosity
• Trends in cohort religiosity
• Trends in attendance related to Human Development Index
• Relationship of fertility to religiosity
Data table of fertility by religiosity
• 23 European countries, as surveyed in the ESS wave 3, 2006
• Looked at how many children individuals had had already
• Age band considered 25-40, ie 1966-1981 cohorts
• Majority of young adults in E. Europe reached reproductive age
after fall of communism is 1989
• Separated by gender, as men have lower fertility at younger age
and are generally (but not universally) less religious
Respondents were divided into 3 categories for this analysis:
1. If a person attends religious services at least once a month, they were classified as an Attender
2. Respondents who answered “No” to the following question were classified as Non-religious“Do you consider yourself as belonging to any particular religion or denomination?”
3. For the group of people who do not regularly attend, yet do consider themselves as belonging to a religion / denomination, they were classified as Fuzzies (a term coined by Voas, 2009). For the few people who said they did attend regularly, but also said they did not belong to a religion / denomination, then they were included in the “Attenders” group.
Female Male
Attenders Fuzzies Non-religious Attenders Fuzzies Non-religious
Scandinavia
Norway 1.37 1.43 1.30 1.50 1.17 0.93
Sweden 1.60 1.17 1.23 1.63 1.19 0.82
Finland 1.52 1.33 0.91 1.70 1.19 0.84
Denmark 1.69 1.56 1.04 1.50 1.38 0.63
Estonia 1.56 1.11 1.27 1.13 0.73 1.00
Mean 1.55 1.32 1.15 1.49 1.13 0.84
Catholic
Cyprus 1.71 1.92 2.55 0.66 0.78 1.47
Ireland 1.68 1.30 1.65 1.14 0.80 0.94
Poland 1.41 1.04 0.85 1.12 0.94 0.73
Portugal 1.24 1.12 0.98 0.69 0.83 0.51
Mean (not inc Cyprus) 1.44 1.15 1.16 0.98 0.86 0.73
Secular
Belgium 1.83 1.37 1.41 1.06 1.32 1.05
Germany 1.38 1.04 0.75 0.72 0.75 0.69
France 1.93 1.37 1.35 1.44 1.05 1.18
Netherlands 1.58 1.42 1.09 1.20 1.04 0.77
United Kingdom 1.61 1.20 1.34 1.56 1.12 0.86
Spain 1.31 0.83 0.65 1.00 0.70 0.42
Mean 1.61 1.21 1.10 1.17 1.00 0.83
Diverse
Austria 1.74 1.16 0.98 1.26 0.89 0.43
Slovenia 1.67 0.93 1.15 1.00 1.03 0.60
Slovakia 1.60 1.38 1.20 1.36 0.86 0.79
Switzerland 2.08 1.27 0.97 1.44 1.01 0.67
Ukraine 1.75 1.24 1.18 1.74 1.26 0.83
Mean 1.77 1.20 1.10 1.36 1.01 0.67
Ex-communist
Bulgaria 1.02 1.46 1.29 0.85 1.27 0.65
Hungary 1.86 1.61 1.32 0.56 0.82 0.91
Russian Federation 1.20 1.17 1.31 1.03 0.98 0.92
Mean 1.36 1.41 1.31 0.81 1.02 0.83
Mean number of children per woman by religious observance
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s
Decade of birth of women
Mena number of children
Non-attenders Attenders
Conclusions / 5
Scandinavia - low religious participation of young people for decades - relatively low differentials by religiosity
Catholic countries - high attendance rates, but also relatively low differentials - possible selection effect
‘Secular’ countries - relatively high differentials by religiosity, more for women than men
‘Diverse’ group - central European band - large differentials of fertility between the religious and secular, with Switzerland and Ukraine being the highest
Ex-communist countries - seen religious revivals to some extent - low differentials of fertility, sometimes reversed to ‘normal’ pattern.
Georgia fits in to the pattern of other ex-communist countries Possible causes: Legacy of discrimination from communist era?‘Modern’ religious behaviour parallels ‘modern’ fertility behaviour?
Overall conclusions
• Georgia is the only (surveyed) country in the world where young people are considerably more religiously active than older people
• There has been growth in young people’s attendance rates in Georgia from 1996-2008
• There has been growth in attendance rates in Georgia for the cohorts born in the 1950s, 60s and 70s between 1996 and 2008
• Georgia’s revival trend fits the model of religious attendance being related to HDI: the growth seen would bring it into the ‘natural’ band of expected attendance rates, based on its HDI. In the 1990s, the level of religiosity was ‘too low’ for its level of development
• Across most of Europe, higher religiosity correlates with higher fertility: in Georgia, as in some other ex-communist countries, the pattern is reversed
Thank you!
Anglo-Saxon countries: proportion of young people who are atheists/attenders
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year of survey
Australia atheists Canada atheists NZ atheists US atheists GB atheists
Australia attenders Canada attenders NZ attenders US attenders GB attenders
Scandinavian countries - proportion of young people who are atheists/attenders
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Survey year
Denmark atheists Estonia atheists Finland atheists
Iceland atheists Norway atheists Sweden atheistsDenmark attenders Estonia attenders Finland attenders
Iceland attenders Norway attenders Sweden attenders
Germanic countries - proportion of young people who are atheists/attenders
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year of survey
Austria atheists Germany atheists Netherlands atheists Slovenia atheists Switzerland atheists
Austria attenders Germany attenders Netherlands attenders Slovenia attenders Switzerland attenders
Northern Catholic countries - proportion of young people who are atheists/attenders
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year of survey
Belgium atheists France atheists Ireland atheists Poland atheists
Belgium attenders France attenders Ireland attenders Poland attenders
Southern Europe - proportion of young people who are atheists/attenders
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year of survey
Italy atheists Malta atheists Portugal atheists Spain atheists Turkey atheists
Italy attenders Malta attenders Portugal attenders Spain attenders Turkey attenders
Eastern European countries - proportion of young people who are atheists
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year of survey
Bulgaria atheists Czech Rep atheists Hungary atheists Romania atheists Slovakia atheists
Bulgaria attenders Czech Rep attenders Hungary attenders Romania attenders Slovakia attenders
Asian countries - proportion of young people who are atheists
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year of survey
China atheists Japan atheists Rep Korea atheists
China attenders Japan attenders Rep Korea attenders
Cohort trends, secularising countries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year of survey
Attendance rates, %
Poland 1950s Poland 1960s Poland 1970s Ireland 1950s Ireland 1960s Ireland 1970s
Spain 1950s Spain 1960s Spain 1970s Belgium 1950s Belgium 1960s Belgium 1970s
Switzerland1950s Switzerland 1960s Switzerland 1970s Netherlands 1950s Netherlands 1960s Netherlands 1970s
In 2008:1950s cohort were 49-581960s cohort were 39-481970s cohort were 29-38
In 1981:
1950s cohort were 22-31
1960s cohort were 16-21
WVS and ESS data
Cohort trends, highly secularised countries
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year of survey
Attendance rates, %
Norway 1950s Norway 1960s Norway 1970s Sweden 1950s Sweden 1960s Sweden 1970s
Denmark 1950s Denmark 1960s Denmark 1970s France1950s France 1960s France 1970s
Estonia 1950s Estonia 1960s Estonia 1970s Czech Rep 1950s Czech Rep 1960s Czech Rep 1970s
Cohort trends, Great Britain, Finland, Hungary and Bulgaria
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year of survey
Attendance rates, %
Great Britain 1950s Great Britain 1960s Great Britain 1970s Finland 1950s Finland 1960s Finland 1970s
Hungary 1950s Hungary 1960s Hungary 1970s Bulgaria 1950s Bulgaria 1960s Bulgaria 1970s
Cohort trends of other moderately religious countries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year of survey
Attendance rates, %
Portugal 1950s Portugal 1960s Portugal 1970s Italy 1950s Italy 1960s Italy 1970s
Austria 1950s Austria 1960s Austria 1970s Slovenia 1950s Slovenia 1960s Slovenia 1970s
Slovakia 1950s Slovakia 1960s Slovakia 1970s