Trend Monitor®
A TOOL FOR SCENARIO ANALYSIS AND TREND MONITORING
Research product
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About trends
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A TREND IS THE DIFFERENTIATING ELEMENT GIVING ADDED VALUE –ON THE BASIS OF ITS CAPABILITY OF ANTICIPATION- TO MARKET PHENOMENA
THE SCENARIO ANALYSIS AND THE ONGOING MONITORING OF TRENDS IS AN ESSENTIAL PART OF BABA CONSULTING AND MARKET RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
TRENDS AT THE CORE OF OUR STUDIES ARE NOT SUPERFICIAL PHENOMENA,
BUT CONCEPTUAL DRIVES CAPABLE OF FOCUSING THE NEXT DEFINITION/CONTEXTUALIZATION/SUPPORT OF DIFFERENT COMMUNICATION ACTIVITIES
FOR THIS REASON, WE MONITOR A COMPREHENSIVE DEFINITION OF THE IDEA OF WHAT A TREND IS, UPON ITS INTENSITY STAGE
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HOT STAGE
EARLY STAGE
CURRENT STAGE
A TREND CAN HAVE THREE INTENSITY STAGES:
About trends
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“HOT SPOT” TRENDS ARE THE STRATEGIC CONCEPTS ON WHICH TO ESTABLISH COMMUNICATION AND PRODUCT PROJECTS FOCUSING ON INNOVATION, A RENEWAL OF PERCEPTIVE HABITS AS WELL AS BEHAVIOURS
î NOT MERE DISTINCTIVENESS, BUT A REORGANIZATION OF EXPECTATIONS
THESE ARE TRENDS NECESSARY TO ACT STRATEGICALLY AND WHICH BRANDS/
PRESS USE ACCORDING TO WHAT THEIR POSITIONING ALLOWS î A DEFINITELY POLEMICAL MODE TOWARDS WHAT’S ON NOW, WHICH
MOVES AWAY FROM WHAT HAS BEEN CONFIRMED IN THE CURRENT SITUATION
About trends / Hot Stage
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“EARLY TRENDS” MANAGE THE TRANSITION FROM THE MOST WIDESPREAD
TRENDS TO THE EXTENDED ONES.
THEY DON’T CREATE A NEW PHENOMENON BUT MAKE THE SIGNAL VISIBLE
AND TURN IT INTO THE CODE THROUGH WHICH INDIVIDUALS SHOW
THEMSELVES AS “ADVANCED”: PEOPLE WHO ARE LIVING IN THE PRESENT
AND ARE GOING TOWARDS THE FUTURE
î EARLY TRENDS “DILUTE” THE HOT SPOT AND MAKES THEM USABLE
About trends / Early Stage
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“CURRENT TRENDS” REFER TO SIGNALS OF TOPICAL BUT WIDESPREAD INTEREST AND REFLECT THE COMMON MOOD
î THEY ARE ENTIRELY CONSENSUAL AND REPRESENT THE BEHAVIOUR,
ATTITUDE OR MODEL THAT INDIVIDUALS FOLLOW TO FEEL THEMSELVES WITHIN THE PRESENT
About trends / Current Stage
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About trends - Examples
HOT STAGE EARLY STAGE CURRENT STAGE
1 2 3
Flowered Terrace/Home Garden
(Dubai)
Green Under Glass
(Japan)
Metropolitan/Vertical Vegetable
Garden (Italy)
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12 COUNTRIES ARE MONITORED BY DEFAULT (I, F, D, UK, E, J, US, CN, IND, RU, BR, TR) AND 9 MARKETS (FOOD, BEVERAGE, TOILETRIES, HOME, MOBILITY, FASHION, HI-TECH, MEDIA AND RETAIL), IDENTIFYING INNOVATIVE PRODUCTS AND COMMUNICATIONS THAT MARK A DISRUPTION WITH THE STATU QUO
THE OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS OF TRENDS IN BABA HAS ISSUED TO A SPECIFIC RESEARCH PRODUCT: TREND MONITOR®, WHICH MONITORS SINCE 2001 THE EVOLUTION OF INNOVATION BOTH FOR PRODUCT/BRAND AND COMMUNICATION CONCEPTS
Trend Monitor®
MONITORING FOCUSES PER EACH COUNTRY AND CATEGORY WIDE SELECTED INFORMATION SOURCES (WEBSITES, TRADITIONAL MEDIA, ADV, EXHIBITIONS, INDUSTRY-FAIRS, BRANDS, ETC.)_> IDENTIFYING INNOVATIVE CONCEPTS AND ANALYZING THEM THROUGH SEMIOTIC ANALYSIS
Trend Monitor® / Evolution 2009/12
CRAFTOLOGY
MINIMIZE FAKING
INDIE
ECO-EGO
NEVERLAND
FLOPPING
FOOLISH
REVAMP
SELFISH NAÏVE
SWINGER
SELF_SUSTAIN DOUBLE FACE
VANISH
MAPPING 2011-12
CHALLENGE
DEFECT
MAPPING 2012-13
BR
EA
K
CO
NTIN
UITY
RE-BUILDERS ICONICS
UNCONDITIONALS GAMBLERS
RESHAPE
HA
RD
TACTIC
SO
FT
FREESTYLERS CLIMBERS
UNMOVERS
MAPPING 2013-14
DIS
CO
NTI
NU
ITY
CO
NTIN
UITY
DISJUNCTION
CONJUNCTION
INDIVIDUAL
SOCIETY STRATEGY
LIMITING
1. GATHERING OF INTERNATIONAL INFORMATION 2. SEMIOTIC ANALYSIS 3. AD HOC RESEARCH
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THE TREND MONITORING IS CARRIED OUT BY SPECIALIZED RESEARCHERS. THREE STAGES FOR THE PROCESS INVOLVED:
Trend Monitor® / Methodology
1. DAILY AND DETAILED GATHERING OF INTERNATIONAL INFORMATION
FROM WEBSITE, BLOG, SOCIAL NETWORKS (FB, TWITTER, PINTEREST ETC.) PRESS, CINEMA, TV, EDITORIAL, ADVERTISING, EXHIBITIONS, INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC FAIRS -> AND PERIODICAL ETHNOGRAPHIC “RAID” LOOKING FOR INNOVATIVE AND UNCONVENTIONAL PRACTICES
î THIS STAGE INCLUDES AN INFO IMPLEMENTATION CARRIED OUT BY INSTITUTE’S COOL HUNTERS AND LOCAL PARTNERS AROUND THE WORLD
2. ANALYSIS, AIMED TO RELATE THE VARIETY OF INFORMATION TO MAJOR CONCEPTS THAT COVERS DIFFERENT EXPRESSIVE INTERFACES, IN ORDER TO IDENTIFY THE TREND DRIVES OF FORECASTING AND ORGANIZE THEM IN A TREND MAPPING, FOCUS OF THE ANNUAL FORECAST REPORT
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Trend Monitor® / Methodology
3. AD HOC REPORT IS CARRIED OUT UPON THE CLIENT’S ISSUES ON THE
BASIS OF TREND DRIVES IDENTIFIED AND MAPPED
î IN RELATION TO BRAND POSITIONING î FOLLOWING COMMUNICATION AND MARKETING OBJECTIVES î TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE TARGET PROFILE AND COMPETITIVE SCENARIO
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THE PROCESS IS DESK TYPE GOING FROM PHENOMENA TO CONCEPTS. IF A FURTHER ANALYSIS OF A SPECIFIC ISSUE IS NEEDED, FIELD ACTIVITIES CAN BE CARRIED OUT TOO: ANY SUPPLEMENTARY FIELD PROBING CAN BE RUN THROUGH AN OFF OR ONLINE ETHNOGRAPHIC APPROACH, AS WELL AS WITH SEMIOTICS (BASICALLY ON OPINION LEADERS AND TREND SETTERS).
Trend Monitor® / Methodology
Trend Monitor® / Intervention Areas
î This activity occurs on an ongoing basis and once a year, and sums up the results in a report and trend mapping identifying the qualification and location of trends in the current situation
î The number of trends varies (it’s higher in contexts with a greater socio-
cultural complexity); they can include drives that have been in place for years (mature trends), emerging trends, and trends in the process of being consolidated
î The length potential of a trend is assessed on the basis of the observation
frequency, on saturation evidences, and in relation to the positioning of the reference brands
THE FIRST INTERVENTION AREA OF OUR TREND MONITORING (TREND MONITOR®) IS :
1. IDENTIFICATION AND QUALIFICATION OF ACTIVE MACRO-TRENDS AND THEIR POSSIBLE FUTURE EVOLUTION: CONCEPTS, CODES, STYLES, TYPES, VALUES, FORMATS, LANGUAGES AND INNOVATIONS IN THE REFERENCE MARKETS
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MONITORING
SCENARIOS INTERNATIONAL BENCHMARKING
ADVANCED SEGMENTS ID.
AIMS
SEMIOTIC ANALYSIS
MAPPING
FOO
D
BEV
ERA
GE
BOD
Y C
AR
E TE
CH
NO
LOG
Y M
OBI
LITY
MED
IA M
KT
HO
ME
RET
AIL
FASH
ION
ETNOGR. ANALYSIS
COUNTRIES SOURCES MARKETS
DESK & FIELD
UK
FRA
NC
E SP
AIN
G
ERM
AN
Y IN
DIA
JAPA
N
USA
CH
INA
WEB
CO
OL
HU
NTE
R
NET
WO
RK
PRES
S
IDENTIFICATION AND POSITIONING OF TREND DRIVES
AD HOC THEMATIC MONITORING
TREND SEGMENTATION BY PLAYERS, MARKETS, COUNTRIES
FOCUS ON EVOLUTIVE TARGETS
POSITIONING CONCEPTS/PLATFORMS + INTEGRATION FOR AD HOC RESEARCH + EDUCATION + CONSULTING + WORKSHOPS
Trend Monitor®
RU
SSIA
BR
AZI
L
ITALY
O.L.
TUR
KEY
Trend Monitor®
2. INTERNATIONAL BENCHMARKING THROUGH TREND SCREENING IN TERMS
OF PLAYERS (BRANDS), MARKETS AND COUNTRIES 3. IDENTIF ICATION OF ADVANCED SEGMENTS IN TERMS OF
COMMUNICATION TGTS OF COMPETITORS AND IN RELATION TO CURRENT TREND DYNAMICS
4. ANALYSIS, ON THE BASIS OF TRENDS EMERGED, OF THE DEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL OF A BRAND/PRODUCT/EDITORIAL INITIATIVE (ALSO WITH REGARD TO TOPICS AND EXPRESSION CHOICES) IDENTIFIED AS ADVANCED BY THE SCENARIO RESEARCH
THE FIRST STAGE OF THE TREND MONITORING IS SUPPORTED BY THE FOLLOWING TREND OBSERVATION ACTIVITIES:
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Trend Monitor® / Intervention Areas
Why use Trend Monitor®
§ FOR TREND FORECAST AND ASSESSMENT OF ITS LIFE IN A SPECIFIC MARKET
§ TO DEFINE THE POSITION / RELOCATION OF A BRAND
§ TO LAUNCH A NEW CONCEPT OF PRODUCT / COMMUNICATION
§ FOR IDENTIFYING AND ANALYZING CONSUMER ATTITUDES AND EVOLUTIONARY
BEHAVIORS
§ TO RENEW / ASSESSING THE NEED FOR RENEWAL OF ONE ELEMENT OF THE MIX
§ TO MONITOR THE COMPETITIVE SCENARIO
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§ FOR WORKSHOPS ORIENTED TO BRAND OR PRODUCT INNOVATION
§ FOR AD HOC SEMINARS DESIGNED FOR THE SPECIFIC NEEDS OF THE CUSTOMER
§ FOR BUSINESS TRAINING ABOUT TRENDWATCHING AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS
§ FOR THE RESEARCH CONSULTANCY FOR TRADE SHOWS AND INDUSTRY
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Why use Trend Monitor®
AGGIUSTAMENTO
potere
RINNOVAMENTO
sapere
OVERFLOW
HARD SOFT
TACTIC
SURROUND
STRATEGY
TENSING
COMPRESSION
IL MAPPING 2013/2014
JUMPERS
FREESTYLERS CLIMBERS
LIMITING
TREND MONITOR® 2013/14
3. MAPPING 2013/14
UNMOVERS
Trend Monitor® 2013-14
TREND MONITOR® 2013/14
SUM UP
LIMITING
Trend Monitor® 2013-14/ Sum up
TREND LAB WAS BORN FROM THE DESIRE TO EXPORT TREND MONITOR® IN THE WORLD, STARTING FROM THE 12 COUNTRIES OUR RESEARCH REFERS TO
THE ANNUAL TREND REPORT IS PRESENTED IN EACH OF THE COUNTRY
MONITORED BY TREND MONITOR®, AND IT TURNS OUT INTO A WORKSHOP DAY
ADDRESSED TO THE LOCAL MARKET, WITH A SCENARIO PARTICULARLY DEDICATED TO IT
TREND LAB IS ACTIVE FROM 2013
THIS IS FOR US A WAY TO SHARE WITH THE LOCAL PARTNER OUR SPECIALIZED
KNOWLEDGE ON MARKET TRENDS, OFFERING IT TO AN AUDIENCE OF CLIENTS/
PROSPECTS ENTREPRENEURS, MARKETING AND RESEARCH MANAGERS, STRATEGIC PLANNERS AND ALL THE SUBJECTS INTERESTED IN EVOLVING THEIR
BUSINESS IN A SMART, DISTINCTIVE AND INNOVATIVE WAY
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Trend Monitor® nel mondo/Trend LAB
ANNEXES CASE HISTORIES
Case Histories/International Benchmarking: “The Whitening Concept”
§ The Whitening concept has e m e r g e d i n t r e n d s identified by baba since the 2004 mapping
§ In 2005, the Whitening trend was the subject of an international monitoring in a research project carried out by baba on behalf of P&G
§ We followed its evolution in a phenomenon concerning health & beauty markets, with an high potential satisfaction benefit relevant for many products
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Case Histories/Identification of Advanced Segments “The Senior Trends”
§ In 2007, baba devised a
scenar io focus ing on Sen iors to assess the a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f g e n e r a t i o n - r e l a t e d marketing for the over 60, on the basis of trends i d e n t i f i e d b y T r e n d Monitor® in 2007-2008.
§ The drivers identified were independent of seniority as age, and gave it a form of e m p o w e r m e n t : t h e s e g m e n t a t i o n recommends to work on perceptive styles, and not on life styles dictated by age.
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Case Histories/ “Geox New Positioning”
§ The research of a new brand-positioning has been the goal of the 2010 research for Geox
§ The analysis of the trends related to the fashion market, and to the shoes’ one in particular, finds in denial of the traditional gender and generational divisions the smartest way to evolve the brand’s offer in a distinctive way
§ An analysis that has resulted in a clear recommendation: to cover a new meaning of functionality, opposed to a simple technical interpretation, a l imit to the aspirational and utopian value of the brand
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Case Histories/ “Nespresso Evolution”
§ In 2011 baba has collaborated with Nespresso to search new plat for ms for the s t rategic evolution of the brand
§ A deep semiotic analysis of the whole communicat ion and products has been the first and necessary step to understand the areas of meaning occupied by the brand during his life
§ Then, the trend analysis of the year, has helped to highlight an alternative way of innovation, far f r o m t h e m a g i c c i r c l e o f perfection and closer to the imper fection trend that has strongly animated the market in 2011
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More case histories
EXAMPLES OF CASE HISTORIES ADDRESSED WITH THE SUPPORT OF BABA TREND AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS OBSERVATION:
§ Research of the positioning concept for a new bio milk (Candia Italia) § Research of the positioning concept for a new magazine (Il Sole 24 Ore) § Planning of the strategy for the evolution of MrDay campaign (Alberto
Cremona) § Evolution of Dietorelle packaging (Carré Noir) § Assessment of the relation between communication concept and trend
(H3G) § Evolution of digital TV (Mediaset) § Evolution of TV news system (Mediaset) § Evolution of brand positioning (Pupa) § Relation between corporate image and social trend (Nestlé) § Evolution of Breil endorser (Binda) § Potential of the Whitening trend (P&G) § Evolution of food and entertainment (Cadbury) § Re-Positioning (Geox) § Italian trends (Philip Morris Italy)
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baba designs and develops qualitative and quantitative market research, and scenario analyses for strategic marketing applications
It offers a comprehensive system of research and consulting services that results from an integrated approach with marketing-oriented semiotics and anthropology of consumption; it
operates in Italy and abroad via a network of international partners
It caters for ongoing monitoring of international trends, ad hoc scenarios, market strategy and research aimed at assessing and positioning products and communication, brand equity,
pre/post testing, naming, website evaluation and creation of new concepts
Trusted by: Amadori, Alberto Cremona, Alcantara,Allaxia, Arclinea, Armando Testa, Artsana, Barilla,Lodigrana, BottegaVerde, British American Tobacco, CandiaItalia, Carré Noir, Citifin, Clergerie, DeaKids, Deborah Italia, Ebay, Edizioni S.Paolo, ERG, Essenza, Ferrero, Fiat, Frette,
Futurebrand, Giò Rossi Associati, Geox, Grey Worldwide, Gruppo Afin, Gruppo Coin, Gruppo Sigma Tau, Hachette, Heineken Italia, Hilti Italia, H3G, IFM, Il Sole 24 Ore, La7, Lovable, Luxottica,
Manifatture Bianchetti, Mediaset, Modafil, MTV, Nespresso, Nestlé, Novartis, Panzani, Philip Morris, Pirelli RE, Playtex, Pinko, Publicis, Pupa, Rai, Sistema Moda Italia, Spirale Arte, Telecom,
TotalErg, Unicredit, Zambon, Zucchi
BABA
Market Research and Scenario
Corso Magents 31 – 20123 Milan
- tel. +39.02.83241678/fax +39.02.89419298 www.babaconsulting.com
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